Collette Calls: The Other Third

No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." -- Tommy Lasorda

Every team will have played 54 games as you are reading this article, so we are now officially one-third of the way through the season. It seems like the bunting was just taken down from the rafters and put away, but alas the season is well underway. I also believe it is fair enough for my first self-evaluation of the season to see how the 60 bold predictions I made in January and February are working out this season. Hopefully, you have more of the players doing well and fewer of those off to slow starts in this first third of the season.

All rankings are generated from our Earned Auction Values calculator using standard 12-team mixed league settings. 

Looking Good Billy Ray

• Yuli Gurriel (will be a top-20 1B) - the 10th-ranked player at his position hitting higher than .300 with 30-plus runs scored and driven in with a resurgent Houston lineup.
• Justin Upton (will be a top 60 OF) - the 52nd-ranked player at his position because his .208 average is not that far below the league average this year, and his 10 homers and 20-plus runs scored and driven in helping keep him compiling numbers.
• Yusei Kikuchi (will be a top-100 pitcher) - the 62nd-ranked pitcher with nearly a strikeout per inning, a sub-4.00 ERA and a surprising 1.04 WHIP. Seattle is a game over .500, but Kikuchi has earned a win in just three of 10 starts.
• Daulton Varsho (finishes outside the top 200) - hasn't hit in triple-A or the majors this season. He has 11 hits in 64 at-bats with five extra-base hits. Varsho was a shiny new toy in draft season because he had catcher eligibility with offensive upside, but he is hitting .183 at the big-league level since the start of the 2020 season.
• Anthony DeSclafani (finishes as a top-150 pitcher) - the 69th pitcher in the rankings with four wins, 54 strikeouts, a 3.56 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. San Francisco clearly has found some secret sauce by the bay that takes downtrodden and castaway pitchers from other organizations and turns them into something useful. Outside of a stinktacular outing against the Dodgers two weeks ago, Disco has been solid in 2021.
• Triston McKenzie (will not be a top-100 pitcher) -  the 439th-ranked pitcher has struggled mightily with walks and homers around his strikeouts. His most recent outing was encouraging in that he struck out 10 White Sox hitters without allowing a home run while only walking two hitters, but also allowed five runs in that outing for the fourth time in his last seven starts.
• Robbie Grossman (would be a top-350 player) - ranked 92nd. Detroit has had its offensive struggles this season, but Grossman has continued his OBP skills and newfound power stroke from 2020 to continue to compile numbers. He is just two steals shy of setting his career-high and appears to be on pace for a career season in the counting categories.
• Scott Barlow (would be a top-150 pitcher) -  ranked 99th, but not for the reasons outlined in the bold prediction. Greg Holland did indeed initially retain the closer role, but Josh Staumont took over before he became injured and now Mike Matheny appears to be using a committee approach to the role. Barlow is having a career year with his strikeout rate and has recorded two wins and a save with solid ratios, but the closer role has evaded him. Still, he has had more value than the market perceived for him this winter.
• Craig Kimbrel (would be a top-8 closer) - fourth-ranked closer. Kimbrel was incredibly volatile both by ADP and appearance in 2020 and early 2021, but he is back in his full dominant form as he is striking out 44 percent of the hitters he is facing while holding the league to a .125 average. If you passed on all the Tier 1 closers and took your chance on Kimbrel where he was in the ADP rankings, you are living the high life so far!
• Hansel Robles (would be a top-400 overall) - ranked 374th as he has been able to slide into the closer role for a surprisingly bad Minnesota team with both Alex Colome and Taylor Rogers having issues ahead of him. Robles is not without his own faults, but he has four saves over the past three weeks around the multiple baserunners he seemingly always has in his appearances.
• Tejay Antone (would be a top-100 pitcher) - 56th-ranked pitcher. That is tough to do with just one win and three saves, but his 1.16 ERA and 0.71 WHIP are fueling the value, and the 37 strikeouts in 28 innings do not hurt either. He is mostly being used in the multi-inning relief role envisioned in the bold prediction but does have three saves as Amir Garrett and Lucas Sims have struggled in 2021.
• Avisail Garcia (would be a top-60 outfielder) - 22nd-ranked outfielder. Garcia is having a monster bounce-back season now that he does not have to worry about the struggles of playing center field, which weighed him down in 2020. He has 10 homers, has driven in 31 runs, and has scored 26 times as the beacon of offense while Christian Yelich and Keston Hiura have been mostly AWOL around him. Garcia has also thrown in four steals and is looking like quite a bargain for a guy that was 85th in outfielder ADP during the peak of draft season.
• Bryan Reynolds (would be a top-60 outfielder) - 31st-ranked outfielder. Reynolds was 80th in outfield ADP at the time of the prediction coming off a horrendous sophomore campaign in 2020. I have always viewed him as a young Nick Markakis and darn it all if he isn't putting up Markakis-like numbers in 2021. He has 16 doubles, seven homers, 30 runs, 24 RBIs and is hitting .283. He has cut down on last season's strikeout rate and is back to his rookie form of 2019. A rebuilding Pittsburgh club could look to sell him to a contender this summer where his value could take another leap in a better lineup and home ballpark.
• Alex Reyes (would be a top-120 pitcher) - 22nd-ranked pitcher. Reyes has three wins, 16 saves, and 40 strikeouts in 29 innings along with an improbable 0.62 ERA. I say that is improbable because he also has a 21 percent walk rate this season, and we have never seen anything like this in baseball history. Mitch Williams had a 20 percent walk rate for the Texas Rangers in 1987 as a middle reliever for them while working 108.2 innings going 8-6 with six saves and a 3.23 ERA. There is a reckoning coming for Reyes's stats and likely his job if these walks do not get under control.
• Freddy Galvis (would be a top-25 shortstop) -  18th-ranked shortstop. Galvis is never a target in drafts, but he was the 47th shortstop by ADP when this prediction was made and was essentially free money given his pre-2020 production levels in the power department. The move to Baltimore is just what the doctor ordered for a power resurgence as he already has nine homers on the season and has mostly resumed his 2019 levels of production in a year where many are struggling to do the same.
• Nick Pivetta (would be a top-150 pitcher) - 64th in the pitcher rankings. He is now 8-1 since joining Boston late in the 2020 season and looks much like the guy we thought was breaking out in 2018 rather than the guy that broke down in 2020. The only thing holding him back this season is an 11 percent walk rate because those runners are rarely being stranded by him or the bullpen. This has been a wonderful ROI given he was not even in the top 200 for pitchers during draft season.
• Austin Riley (would be in the top 150) - ranked 66th overall. Riley is still striking out (who isn't?!) but he is now walking as well so a .303/.393/.520 line with 18 extra-base hits, 24 RBIs and 28 runs scored makes him a valuable asset. He was not even in the top 200 during draft season, but he is putting up the numbers Atlanta expected from Marcell Ozuna while the latter is a pile of human excrement.
• Ian Anderson (would not be a top-150 player) - ranked 200th overall. Drafters were in love with the talented young arm this winter, and he certainly has not pitched poorly this season. four wins, a 3.27 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and a 26 percent strikeout rate are certainly good numbers, but the WHIP could be lower, and the rising tide of pitcher numbers as offense struggles in 2021 lessens the impact of his overall line. The concerns about workload on the young arm are still very real given he is on pace to work 165 innings this season.
• Adam Duvall (would be a top-60 outfielder) - 38th-ranked outfielder. Duvall was the 99th outfielder in the February ADP report as power bats with bad averages are undervalued. Duvall's approach fits right into the 2021 theme as he still strikes out, still cannot hit for average, but he can still mash a baseball and drive runners in. He has equaled his 2020 RBI total in 30 fewer plate appearances, but this production is going to be incredibly tough to maintain if his OBP remains in the .250s. Miami needs run production, but Duvall is hovering below the break-even point and could be in danger of losing his spot in the lineup.

Hold it Now ... Hold It Now

• Ty France (would be a top-200 player) - 241st in the rankings thanks to a stint on the injured list. France has been productive for Seattle when in the lineup scoring and driving in over 20 runs albeit with fewer home runs than projected. He continues to play everyday and has been 11 percent better than league average in generating offense.
• Will Smith (would be top catcher) - sixth-ranked catcher behind Salvador Perez, Buster Posey, Willson Contreras, Yadier Molina, and (checks notes ...) Mike Zunino??!! That is just dumb luck! The old vet trio of Perez, Posey, and Molina are not going quietly into the night. Contreras is not surprising, but Zunino's 12 homers and run production is. Smith is not having a bad season as much as those above him are just doing that well.
• Adam Eaton ( would be top-60 outfielder) - 57th-ranked outfielder as he moved around the lineup. This will not last long if he does not resume his OBP abilities. The walk rate is still strong at 10 percent, but he is striking out at a career-high rate of 25 percent and looks to be sliding into fourth outfield territory rather than the OBP run producer he was as recently as 2019.
• Michael Kopech (would be top-75 pitcher) - 76th-ranked pitcher. He is currently on the IL with a hamstring strain, which is unfortunate because he has looked terrific for Chicago this year striking out 45 batters in 31.1 innings of work with a 27 percent K-BB%. The rebound is real, but the hamstring injury due to an awkward landing in his last delivery currently has him on the shelf.
• Dylan Carlson (would be top-100 player) - ranked 118th overall. He had an ADP of 148 when I made this prediction, so him advancing closer to the top 100 is the progress I want to see. His .279/.362/.437 line is solid production along with 31 runs and 26 RBIs, but zero steals and six homers limit his ceiling.
• Bobby Dalbec (would not be a top-350 player) - ranked  345th overall. Dalbec has lowered his strikeout rate from 42 to 36 percent this season, but the .203/.255/.378 line is going to be tough for a contending Boston team to carry anywhere in their lineup on a regular basis. Unless he can change his OBP issues, this ranking will get worse as the season progresses.
• Corey Kluber (would not be a top-125 pitcher) - 60th-ranked pitcher. I was at the front of the line to kick dirt on Kluber's grave early in the season when he looked washed up, and then he got things right against Baltimore and Atlanta, struggled again, and then no-hit Texas before getting hurt in his last outing. The theme appeared to be that Kluber could still dominate bad lineups but struggle against good ones. Now, he is on the injured list through the all-star break and the concerns about how he could pitch against quality lineups remain.

Thanks for Nothing!

• Lance McCullers (top-3 Cy Young) - the 52nd-ranked pitcher is on the injured list with a tired shoulder. The walks are back, and the durability monster struck again. I should have known better, and I am feeling this pain in five different leagues.
• Jaime Barria (top-175 pitcher) - he has worked 15.2 innings in 2021, most of which with Salt Lake in Triple-A. He could not throw strikes early in the season and was sent down to suffer in the run environments in the west.
• Chad Pinder (top-300 overall) - Right as I was taking a victory lap as Pinder had a monster opening weekend, he hurt himself in the field and only recently came back. He has a series in Colorado this weekend which could be a lot of fun for him statistically, but the injury cost him a significant amount of time.
• A.J. Puk (top-125 pitcher) - He made one start, left with arm soreness, and has not returned to the big league roster. He recently came off the injured list, but was immediately sent down to Triple-A for him to get some regular work in. Oakland will need his arm fresh given how it's aggressively working its other arms, so I am not writing him off just yet.
• Nate Lowe (not top-400 overall) - ranked 79th overall and rubbing it in my face. The overall numbers have driven the value as he has eight homers, 26 runs scored, 30 driven in and is hitting .246 but the underlying issues remain. He has but one hit this year on a pitch 95 or faster from pitchers. If you remove his amazing opening week from his stats, he is hitting .231/.348/.344 with five homers, 16 RBIs and 22 runs scored. He scores runs as he gets on base and Adonis Garcia drives them in, but his offense has taken a turn for the worse once the league remembered well-located velocity pitches can get the job done against the big man.
• Jonathan Hernandez (top-125 pitcher) - went down with TJ surgery days before the season began.
• Caleb Smith (outside top-400 overall) - 146th in the rankings. Smith has been surprisingly decent as a middle reliever once Arizona yanked him from the rotation. Two wins and two saves fluff up his value, but the walks are still a problem and he does not have the skillset to be a long-term effective late innings reliever with his combination of walks and extreme flyball rates.
• Raimel Tapia (not a top-100 outfielder) - 37th-ranked outfielder. In a season where power is down, Tapia is tracking for a career-best homer total? Topping that off, he is likely going to do the same with steals despite nothing really changing in his underlying indicators and numbers. This won't hold up, but I missed the boat on the early numbers.
• David Price (top-40 pitcher) - 300th on the list as he has settled into a middle reliever role for the Dodgers and does not appear destined for the rotation any time soon. He finally faced more than 10 batters in a game in his most recent outing, so perhaps the Dodgers are beginning to stretch Price out in preparation for the dog days of summer.
• Jake Cronenworth (not top 200) - 99th overall. The concerns about playing time went away as Cronenworth moved around the diamond and lineup to cover injuries. He has excelled in scoring runs with his OBP skills in this talented offense and has been particularly excellent at avoiding the strikeout at time when the rest of the league continues to swing and miss at alarming rates. A good reminder to draft skills and not roles, and to wag your finger at your favorite franchise for trading this skillset away.
• Drew Pomeranz (top-125 pitcher) - 260th overall as that meddling Mark Melancon came in and took the role envisioned for Pomeranz. Melancon is on pace to save 125 games this season, which would shatter the existing record of 67, while Pomeranz is on the IL dealing with a lat injury.
• Jason Vosler (top-500 overall) - Vosler has received 23 plate appearances across two recalls this season with minimal production. The concerns about Evan Longoria's rapid aging have been lessened for now.
• Nolan Jones (top 450) - has not appeared at the big league level and is hitting .179/.326/.282 in Triple-A meaning he is not going to be in Cleveland anytime soon.
• Matthew Boyd (top-60 pitcher) - 118th on the pitcher list. The good news is he has homers under control this year and a 1.17 WHIP. The bad news is he is 2-6 with a 3.90 ERA and a sub 20 percent strikeout rate. He has been a better real-life pitcher than a fantasy one, and this may be his new form.
• Edward Oliveras (top 75 outfielder) - this is only in the red because he just got promoted to the majors and has to play some serious catchup to make this happen. He laid waste to Triple-A pitching hitting .395/.473/.654 in Omaha with five homers and seven steals before his promotion, so this prediction could come true as the Kansas City lineup becomes more entertaining with this promotion and the return of Adalberto Mondesi Jr.
• Nico Hoerner (top 25 MI) - was hitting .338/.405/.432 before going to the injured list with a hamstring injury. The run production is what you would expect from a bottom of the lineup hitter, but three steals and a high average helps.
• Aristides Aquino (top 100 outfielder) - Aquino injured his wrist two weeks into the season and has yet to return. He would have to come back this month and get on his 2019 pace to make this prediction come true.
• Josh Lindblom (top 100 pitcher) - 1,269th in the pitcher rankings. Lindblom was so bad that he cleared outright waivers in May as the other 29 teams looked away. Walks plus home runs in an unfriendly park simply cannot happen, and Milwaukee is hoping that some time in Nashville could get him back on track.
• Steven Brault (top 150 pitcher) - hurt his lat muscle very late in spring training and still has not made a 2021 regular season appearance. That may not happen until close to the All-Star Break.
• Tanner Scott (top 150 pitcher) - 235th-ranked pitcher. He has the wins and he has the strikeouts, but the unsightly walk rate, 18 percent, is going to keep him away from saves. Cesar Valdez slung his way to some saves, and now a committee of Paul Fry and Cole Sulser appear to be joining the fray as well. Scott can look like a closer during an appearance, but that walk rate is going to prevent that from happening any time soon.
• Gio Urshela (top 100 player) - 235th in the overall rankings. He did miss some time with an injury, but his overall numbers are still down from where they were the previous two seasons. On the plus side, he has gained in-season eligibility at shortstop for leagues that use a five-game eligibility rule.
• Taylor Walls (top 400 overall) - was just recently promoted and is playing most days at the bottom of the lineup. He has shown a solid approach at the plate with the ability to hit the ball to all fields and not be the automatic strikeout his predecessor was of late.
• Joe Ryan (top 200 pitcher) - has not yet made it to the majors. He is 2-2 with a 4.57 ERA in Durham, but has 32 strikeouts in 21.2 innings while allowing just two homers. The ERA comes from an unfortunate 47 percent LOB%. He will be up soon enough once the Rich Hill magic wears off.
• Bo Bichette (not top-50 overall) - 11th overall. I underestimated the impact of Dunedin on his numbers as Bichette hit .299/.355/.567 there and .234/.280/.403 on the road. He has more homers on the road, but he has maximized his home production to fuel his numbers and is tracking for quite the overall season if Buffalo plays up as it did last year as well.
• Julian Merryweather (top-250 pitcher) - looked terrific before the 118th injury of his career put him on the shelf for an extended period of time. Latest reports say he, "isn't close" to returning so we may not see him until after the break.
• Elieser Hernandez (top-60 pitcher) - 423rd on the list as he left his first outing nine batters in and will not pitch again until either today or tomorrow.
• Brandon Nimmo (leads NL in runs) - I need to stop trying to make Nimmo happen. He injured his finger in late April and has not returned and has no new timetable for his rehab assignment. What a waste of a .430 on-base percentage.
• Alec Bohm (top-60 overall) -  246th overall. He leads the league with grounding into 12 double plays, has seen his strikeout rate decline eight percentage points, and yet somehow has driven in 25 runs and has scored 20 runs. He looks as bad in 2021 as he did good in 2020 and I am at a loss to explain it.
• Matt Moore (top-200 pitcher) -  on the injured list with back troubles, likely related to whiplash suffered from him watching his batted balls the second time through the lineup. Philly would best be served using Moore as the Dodgers are using Price as Moore has not shown the ability to turn a lineup over.
• Starlin Castro (top-20 2B) - 45th in the rankings. Castro had developed a reputation of consistent compiling heading into the 2020 season, but has yet to recover from the lost time in 2020. He has driven in 20 runs this season, but his overall production is 25% below the league average and he has lost his everyday spot in the lineup.
• Will Harris (top-250 pitcher) - Harris was diagnosed with Thoracic Outlet Syndrome and is going to be shut down for the season after working just six innings in 2021.