Bettors and DFS players will have plenty of food on their plates Saturday when the UFC comes to Louisville with a 14-fight slate. We'll break down every fight on the card with the backdrop of three distinct platforms to help players find profit. Picks this week include a debuting underdog who is dangerous on the feet and a fallen title contender looking to right the ship at light heavyweight. Our betting lines come courtesy of the RotoWire MMA Betting Page and are accurate to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Eduarda Moura ($8,800)
Moura and Denise Gomes both swing heavy in the pocket, but "Ronda" is big for the division, and it's difficult to imagine her having trouble outgrappling her opponent when we consider how much success Angela Hill had against "Dee" in November. Moura struggles defensively as a tall fighter, but she is tough and aggressive enough to make this fight hers before Gomes has a chance to get going.
Montana De La Rosa ($7,700)
Neither De La Rosa nor Andrea Lee has had much to write home about in terms of wins and losses, but Montana gave a good account of herself against JJ Aldrich, matching the boxer strike-for-strike and keeping a good pace while landing hard counter shots. Lee has been known to wilt when an opponent can dictate terms, and De La Rosa should be able to get back to her wrestling in this one, giving her avenues to win the fight regardless of where it takes place.
Daniel Marcos ($8,000)
Marcos' win over Aori Qileng was a bit of a coming out party, as the evasive kickboxer who had previously looked to stick and use his footwork stood squarely in the pocket with a powerful fighter and picked him apart. John Castaneda is a solid boxer but tends to fight off the back foot, allowing Marcos to dictate range on the feet. "Soncora" also possesses a wrestling game, which will be useful when his opponent tries to blitz forward with strikes.
Ricky Turcios ($6,900)
Turcios is somehow less expensive than the first time this fight was booked in February when Raul Rosas pulled from the bout due to an illness. While his quick knockout against Terrence Mitchell was impressive, it didn't address the concerns that arose after his loss to Christian Rodriguez. Namely, if the 19-year-old cannot finish his opponent quickly, he can get tired and allow him to take over. Turcios is the perfect candidate for this, as he loves fighting at a high pace and forcing scrambles on the ground. Aiemann Zahabi made sure to stay away from Turcios, which made for an incredibly slow fight, but I'm not sure Rosas has the footwork or inclination to employ a similar game plan.
Nassourdine Imavov ($8,600)
Imavov's footwork, defense, and ability to wrestle should all pay dividends against Jared Cannonier, who likes to press forward with a boxing-heavy attack. "The Killa Gorilla" was taken down at will in his fight against Glover Teixeira. While he fared much better against a credentialed wrestler in Derek Brunson, it should be noted that many of those shots were from a panicked and tired fighter, as Sean Strickland and Marvin Vettori both grounded him with their first and only attempts. Imavov will be at a slight reach disadvantage despite carrying a four-inch height advantage, making it even more difficult for Cannonier to close the distance.
Puja Tomar ($7,100)
I always look for underdogs who appear to be too heavily discounted, and that seems to be the case with Tomar, who is a very quick kickboxer and shows good variety in her attacks. Rayanne Amanda tends to gas herself out by throwing hard in the pocket until her punches become wild and easily avoidable. I expect Tomar to mind her distance early and start to take over this fight in its latter stages.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Significant Strikes
Taylor Lapilus OVER 58.5 Significant Strikes, Brad Katona OVER 61.5 Significant Strikes, and L'udovit Klein OVER 52.5 Significant Strikes
Lapilus is an incredibly crisp boxer, but he is so dedicated to counter-striking that getting big totals from him has been difficult. This should change in his matchup with Cody Stamann, who looks to march his opponents down and throw big shots. Stamann can revert to a power wrestling game but is unlikely to stay committed if his initial attempts are unsuccessful. This will allow the normally slow-working Lapilus to intercept his target with volume.
Katona is a dream when it comes to selecting overs, as he has notched just four finishes (including one KO/TKO) in 13 wins. Jesse Butler's upright stance makes him extremely hittable, and his eight submission wins in 12 career fights should ensure that Katona keeps the wrestling to a minimum.
Thiago Moises is a fighter who likes to get to the ground and work his jiujitsu, but like Stamman, he is perfectly willing to try and strike if he cannot get his wrestling going. Klein comes into this bout sporting an 83 percent takedown defense rate, which will help him keep range and exceed his total.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Fight Time
Carlos Prates UNDER 9.75 Minutes of Fight Time, Miguel Baeza UNDER 7.5 minutes of Fight Time, and Brunno Ferreira OVER 6.5 Minutes of Fight Time.
The footwork and length of Trevin Giles were enough to give Prates pause, resulting in a bit of a later finish than some expected. There should be no similar issues with Charlie Radtke, who likes to get in the pocket and throw combination strikes. I expect this fight to last no longer than a few exchanges, as both men can be hit, and both carry tremendous power.
The fight between Baeza and Punahele Soriano will pit an extremely aggressive bomb thrower against a slick counter-striker with power. It's tough to imagine a better dynamic for an early finish, particularly as Soriano has not shown much more than a round of cardio before he is left gasping for air. Baeza has been knocked out in each of his last two fights, which may be a sign of a compromised chin going forward.
All three of Ferriera's UFC fights have ended in the first round, so seeing this line over five minutes is a bit of a surprise. Still, he will face an opponent in Dustin Stoltzfus, whose first knockout loss in 20 professional fights came in 2022. While no one would accuse Abus Magomedov of being a knockout artist, it's worth noting that the finish came off of a sneaky frontkick that I don't expect Ferriera to replicate. Instead, I think Stoltzfus's toughness will serve him well in the pocket before takedown attempts help us bleed time off the clock.
Bets to Consider
Julian Marquez wins via KO/TKO (+230)
I wrote before Zachary Reese's UFC debut against Cody Brundage that I didn't view him as someone who could hang in the organization, and my opinion was reinforced when he lost via a slam KO in Round 1. Now, he will fight a heavy puncher in Marquez, whose experienced submission grappling should help negate Reese's ground game. Reese will be in trouble every second he needs to stand at range, and I don't expect "The Cuban Missle Crisis" to waste much time here.
Dominick Reyes wins via decision (+600)
This may seem like a bit of a stretch, given Reyes has been knocked out in each of his last three fights, but Dustin Jacoby is a fighter who generally likes to chip away at opponents before landing the definitive blow, which should give the more agile and kick-heavy fighter in Reyes a chance to settle in. Reyes' jab and body kicks should see him do enough to win the fight, while Jacoby's legendary toughness will allow us to see the scorecards.
For another UFC betting perspective, check out our UFC Louisville Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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