This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
Saturday's 14-fight slate may lack star power until we reach the main event, but it does feature quite a few mispriced favorites for us to take advantage of on the other side. We'll take a look at every bout across four platforms, including a wrestle-boxer who only has one speed and a fighter being disrespected in a matchup of long-time veterans. Our betting line this week comes from William Hill and is accurate as to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Gaston Bolanos ($9,200)
Belanos is probably best known for his heavy Thai clinch work, but the Bellator alumnus will wrestle when the situation calls for it. He's also a dedicated finisher, as all six of his professional MMA wins have come via KO/TKO. Aaron Phillips features crisp body kicks and a nice jab, but he can be put against the side of the Octagon far too easily, where Bolanos will be able to wear on him with elbows and knees.
Lucie Pudilova ($8,600)
Pudilova was able to ground a more athletic opponent in Wu Yanan and dominate her positionally to get her first finish in the Octagon. While Joselyne Edwards stuffed the majority of the takedowns attempted against her by Ramona Pascual, Pudilova is a much better shot wrestler and has more tools with which to hide her intentions. The judges gave Edwards the nod over Pascual mainly based on her kicking volume, but Pudilova is far more polished in every phase of the fight and will know what to do when "La Pantera" begins to flag late.
Rafa Garcia ($9,600)
As I write this, I am having flashbacks to Garcia's fight with Chris Gruetzemacher, which saw the overwhelming speed and athleticism advantage of "Gifted" mean very little when he got tired late in the bout. Still, Clay Guida seems way less likely to recover if he takes the damage Gruetzemacher did and Guida can be outwrestled and out-grappled by more agile opponents. Guida will have a chance if he can drag this into deep waters, but I never like banking on fighters to survive a beating.
TJ Brown ($7,400)
I'll probably take shots on TJ Brown in quite a few instances where he is a heavy underdog, as his fight style dictates he will always score well in victory. The matchup against Bill Algeo will force him to navigate a reach disadvantage, but once he gets on the inside, Brown will look to ply his trade as the best grappler "Senor Perfecto" has faced in the Octagon. Brown has focused much more on his boxing and control on the ground in recent fights, so I'm much less concerned about potential burnout as the clock winds down.
Piera Rodriguez ($8,000)
Gillian Robertson is a ferocious submission grappler but has frequently been controlled on the ground by stronger opponents. While the inclination may be to side with Robertson as the more physical fighter due to the move to strawweight, Rodriguez was able to easily control Sam Hughes on the ground, which makes me think she will have no issues when she gets in top position against an opponent who has been known to get stuck on her back.
Azamat Murzakanov ($7,300)
I am all about the underdog wrestlers this week. Particularly in this matchup, as Dustin Jacoby was taken down nine times by Ion Cutelaba, and Murzakanov is a much better control grappler than "The Hulk." As a rangy kickboxer, Jacoby likes time and space to set up his strikes. He'll get no such window from Murzakanov, though, who will be in his face throwing punches from the opening bell.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks
Matheus Nicolau UNDER 12.5 Minutes of Fight Time, Ion Cutelaba OVER 7.5 Minutes of Fight Time, and Max Holloway OVER 24.75 Minutes of Fight Time
Nicolau is known to be a slow-paced counter fighter, but he won't be able to force a slow fight from Brandon Royval, who has gone over this mark just once in his six-fight UFC career. Nicolau is not a strong grappler who will be able to control Royval like Rogerio Bontorin, which should allow for "Raw Dawg" to induce his usual high-paced scrap, where either his slick BJJ or Nicolau's power will prevail.
The script for Cutelaba's fights seems easy to write these days, as he frequently has success grappling early before either getting tired or overzealous on the ground, which leads to a knockout or submission loss. Tanner Boser's speed and athleticism were enough to surprise opponents and get him finishes at heavyweight, but he will not have the same advantages at 205 pounds, which should see him revert back to the volume striker he was before coming to the UFC. He has also never finished by submission, which means Cutelaba will likely have success blanketing "The Bulldozer," which should take this fight well into the second round.
This last line is a bit sketchy, as we are essentially betting on the fight to go to a decision, but even as Max Holloway has taken more damage as his career has progressed, he has yet to be stopped by strikes. Arnold Allen isn't much of a submission threat and has seen the final bell in every one of his 20 professional MMA fights. This gives me confidence to take the over, but the incredible volume that is sure to fly from both fighters will likely lead to a few tense moments.
Plays to Consider on Super Draft
Ed Herman – 2.1 X Multiplier
I must confess that part of the reason I am picking Herman here is that I can't justify Zak Cummings as such a large favorite. However, it's also the case that "Short Fuse" held his own with the newer generation of powerful athlete in his loss to Alonzo Menifield, using his boxing skills and close-quarters striking to surprise the far younger man on a few occasions. Cummings is powerful as ever but doesn't throw enough to make me concerned about a knockout here. I also don't think he can outgrapple Herman, which should give him time to put his shots together on the feet.
Edson Barboza- 1.95 X Multiplier
It's not always a good idea to judge fights by common opponents, but it should be noted that Billy Quarantillo wilted under the pressure of Shane Burgos, while Barboza was able to stay in the hurricane and deliver a late knockout. I think the notion that "Junior" will melt under pressure is a bit simplistic, as it usually requires a wrestling/grappling game to stifle him completely. Quarantillo doesn't have the power of a Burgos and possesses just a 24 percent takedown accuracy rate, so it may surprise some when the former title contender doesn't simply go away, as Alexander Hernandez did in his fight with "Billy Q."
Pedro Munhoz – 2.1 X Multiplier
Chris Gutierrez is known for punishing his opponents with leg kicks, but as Jimmie Rivera learned quite painfully, you do not enter into a leg-kicking competition with "The Young Punisher" and come out on top very often. Gutierrez stands very heavily on his lead leg and is a counter-fighter by trade, which will allow Munhoz to take control via the 5.70 significant strikes he lands per minute in the Octagon.
Lando Vannata – 1.9 X Multiplier
After Daniel Zellhuber landed a grand total of 52 significant strikes in his UFC debut against Trey Ogden, I think it's worth seeing if he is ready to compete at this level. Vannata will certainly show us if that is the case, as "Groovy" loves to occupy the space of his opponent and throw big volume. I noted in my pick of Ogden in September that Zellhuber's clinch game didn't justify the then-exorbitant salary, and I'm now a bit concerned that he doesn't have much more to lean on other than his physicality.
Bets to Consider
Bruna Brasil (-155)
Maybe it's the overall distrust the public has come to have for Contender Series winners, but I think Brasil could stand to be a bit larger of a favorite here. Not only is she long and athletic with a brutal kicking game, but she showed some good wrestling and grappling chops before finding the finish that landed her a contract with the UFC. Denise Gomes comes into this fight at a substantial disadvantage in height and isn't a good enough (or strong enough) wrestler to get this fight where she needs it to be.
For more UFC betting picks, check out our UFC Kansas City Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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