UFC 309 strikes me as a curiosity more than anything else, as two titans of the sport come together for one last battle in the main event. We have 13 total fights off of which we can try to profit, including a heavy-handed veteran and a relative unknown in a solid matchup. Our betting line this week comes from the RotoWire MMA betting page and is accurate to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Oban Elliott ($8,800)
Elliott allayed concerns that arose from an uneven UFC debut in his fight against Preston Parsons, in which he showed he could push an exhausting grapple-heavy pace for 15 minutes. If he can sustain his cardio, Elliott should have no trouble with Bassil Hafez, who should be at a noticeable strength and skill disadvantage when this bout hits the mat.
Ramiz Brahimaj ($7,900)
Brahimaj is such a powerful wrestler and grappler that it is a mystery why so much of his UFC tenure has been spent trying to kickbox. The ground game will almost certainly be part of the plan against Mickey Gall, who has logged an abysmal 37 percent takedown defense rate over 12 fights in the organization. Gall is a submission grappler as well but has never shown competency from bottom position.
Marcin Tybura ($8,200)
I was ready to Pick Derrick Lewis to outwrestle Jhonata Diniz, so it should be no surprise that I feel comfortable running with the much more experienced grappler here. For every overnight sensation like Alex Pereira, we have seen just as many kickboxers who transition to MMA crash and burn, and Diniz hasn't done anything to show me he can hang in all aspects of the sport.
Jim Miller ($7,600)
I was surprised to see Jim Miller as an underdog in this spot, as we have only seen him outgrappled by the division's elite, and he still has plenty of power in his hands. Damon Jackson won't be able to take over this fight on the ground, so he will need to contend with "A-10" working his own wrestling and throwing hands in space.
Charles Oliveira ($9,000)
It's not clear to me that this rematch needed to happen after Oliveira's TKO victory over Michael Chandler in 2021, but I expect a similar result. "Iron" has always been aggressive but has gotten downright frantic in the UFC. This prevents him from putting fighters away, as he seems incapable of finding the shots against elite opposition. "Do Bronx" has always been great at recovering and his skill set is too deep for Chandler to expect to walk over him in short order.
Karine Silva ($9,200)
Silva's determination as a wrestler should leave us little concern about earning her price here, as Viviane Araujo is an upright kickboxer who has been taken down at least twice in two of her last three fights. As long as she collapses the space to stay out of kicking range, "Killer" should be able to control this fight and breeze to a decision victory.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Significant Strikes
Eryk Anders OVER 53.5 Significant Strikes, Marcus McGhee OVER 65.5 Significant Strikes, and Veronica Hardy UNDER 45.5 Significant Strikes
Chris Weidman may be a credentialed wrestler, but he's no stranger to initiating a kickboxing match from bell to bell. I expect him to feel fairly comfortable in space against Anders, against whom he will have a reach advantage of three inches. Anders doesn't throw a tremendous amount of volume, but he will have more than enough time to exceed this total if the fight stays standing.
McGhee is an incredibly aggressive striker, landing almost five and a half per minute of fight time. This should allow us to pile up our total against Jonathan Martinez, a stationary kickboxer who has been knocked out only once in 24 professional fights. Expect a straight kickboxing affair with plenty of damage dealt on each side.
Veronica Hardy is such an agile kickboxer that she is capable of landing upwards of 90 significant strikes in a fight, but Eduarda Moura will almost certainly not let that happen. "Ronda" didn't get her nickname by accident, as she walks forward and tries to force grappling exchanges whenever possible. This should keep significant strikes to a minimum, with Hardy doing enough to get the nod from the judges.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Fight Time
David Onama OVER 8.5 Minutes of Fight Time, Bo Nickal OVER 4.75 Minutes of Fight Time, and Mauricio Ruffy OVER 9.75 Minutes of Fight Time
Onama comes in as an overwhelming favorite against late-replacement newcomer Roberto Romero. While I certainly don't expect him to win, I could see Romero being a bit of a nuisance for Onama, thanks to a pressure-heavy style that looks to ground and control opponents. Onama has beaten pressure fighters in the past but may not be able to be his usual dominant self on the back foot.
Nickal has run through his UFC competition to this point, but Paul Craig represents a unique challenge for his wrestling-based attack as a slick submission grappler. This may give Nikal cause to keep the fight standing for longer than usual, and while Craig has been knocked out, all but the biggest punchers have had to work to make that happen.
Ruffy is a genuine fight finisher, having secured a KO/TKO in all his ten professional wins. I expect this to get more difficult as the competition gets stiffer. James Llontop may not be a world-beater, but he can keep space with his jab and footwork and has never been knocked out in 18 MMA fights.
Bets to Consider
Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic Fight Goes to Decision (+330)
It is tough to know exactly what we are going to see with fighters this inactive, as Stipe hasn't stepped into the cage since his knockout loss to Francis Ngannou in 2021, and Jones' last fight was a first-round finish against Ciryl Gane in March of 2023. However, we are still talking about a fighter in Miocic who has never been submitted, while "Bones" hasn't recorded a knockout since his fight against Alexander Gustafsson in 2018. Conditioning could be an issue for either fighter down the stretch, but this is more likely to result in a lull in the action rather than a stoppage.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our UFC 309 Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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