This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Vegas 99 DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
UFC Vegas 99 takes place Saturday, so it's time to break down the top fights, plus make DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $350k UFC Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Middleweight
Anthony Hernandez (12-2-0, 1NC) v. Michel Pereira (31-11-0, 2NC)
DK Salaries: Hernandez ($8,300), Pereira ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Hernandez (-140), Pereira (+120)
This fight was originally scheduled to take place at UFC 306 at the Sphere before being pushed back about a month to headline this card. There was no word either man was dealing with an injury, so it was likely just for pure scheduling reasons.
Pereira has been rolling for more than four years now, with eight straight wins dating back to September 2020. He really took off following his return to middleweight about a year ago. He's fought three times since there, scoring first-round stoppage wins over Ihor Potieria (submission), Michal Oleksiejczuk (submission), and Andre Petroski (knockout). None of the fights lasted longer than 66 seconds. As great as he's looked, he hasn't been facing the cream of the crop at 185 pounds. A bout against Hernandez will tell us just how far Michel has come.
Speaking of rolling, "Fluffy" has won five in a row dating back to February 2021. His last three wins, all via stoppage, have come over Roman Kopylov, Edmen Shahbazyan and Marc-Andre Barriault. While it's safe to say Hernandez has been facing better competition than Pereira of late, the gap is quite small.
Unsurprisingly, Pereira took a significant step forward when he stopped playing games inside the Octagon and pandering to the crowd. He's a freak athlete, possessing some of the most insane explosiveness you will ever see, particularly in short spurts. He's shown zero signs of losing that athleticism despite the fact he turned 30 years of age earlier this month.
Something will have to give here.
Hernandez is averaging 6.62 takedowns per 15 minutes while landing 49 percent of his attempts. He's landed no fewer than three takedowns in each of his past five fights. Over that span, he has gotten his opposition to the mat on 29 different occasions. That said, it won't be easy against Pereira, who is very strong and sporting a 94 percent takedown defense. He's given up exactly one takedown in 11 UFC bouts.
It's pretty clear Pereira has more ways to win. He's definitely the more talented and powerful striker.
The main question is whether or not Hernandez's grappling is so elite that he will be able to cover up the other holes in his game.
I can't remember the last main event that I had less feel for. I could see Hernandez just spamming takedown attempts together and landing enough to grind out a decision. I can also see Pereira remaining upright and dominating on the feet. This feels like a pure toss-up. I'll go with Michel simply due to the cheaper salary and better payoff, but this one could go either way.
THE PICK: Pereira
Co-Main Event - Bantamweight
Rob Font (20-8-0) v. Kyler Phillips (12-2-0)
DK Salaries: Font ($6,900), Phillips ($9,300)
Vegas Odds: Font (+320), Phillips (-425)
Phillips rarely gets talked about, but he's been plenty impressive since his February 2020 UFC debut. He's 6-1 with the company, with the lone setback coming via majority decision against Raulian Paiva back in 2021. He's fresh off arguably his most impressive performance to date, a unanimous decision win over a tough customer in Pedro Munhoz in March. Font has been a division mainstay for a long time and represents a stiff, but fair challenge for Kyler at this stage of his career.
To say Rob needs a win would be a massive understatement. He turned 37 years of age in late-June and is 1-4 in his past five fights. That said, those four setbacks have come against Deiveson Figueiredo, Cory Sandhagen, Marlon Vera and Jose Aldo. I could see the UFC deciding to cut its losses if Font is routed here. There simply isn't much room for an aging fighter struggling to this extent, even in a deep division. However, Font puts on entertaining bouts every time out, so perhaps he'd be given another chance.
Font is entirely reliant on his boxing skills for success. He has fast hands and the potential to put up a ton of volume in the striking game, but it's also a skill set that typically tends to age poorly. If his hand speed dips even the slightest, or he struggles to get his head off the center line at his advanced age, Rob is in trouble.
Phillips definitely brings a more well rounded skill set to the table. He should be just about Font's equal in terms of striking ability, but it's the grappling that figures to be the difference in this fight.
Font's takedown defense is a woeful 46 percent. Over his last two fights, he's given up 11 takedowns. He's allowed multiple successful attempts on seven different occasions.
Kyler isn't the type to spam attempts together, but he lands 2.41 takedowns per 15 minutes, and I'm certain he and his team are well aware it's the safest and easiest path to victory against Font.
Rob has been a good fighter for a long time, but he simply doesn't have the secondary offensive skills to defeat better competition at this stage of his career. My guess is that if Phillips doesn't like what he sees on the feet, he lands a well-time takedown or two, picks up control time and grinds his way to a decision. Font's margin for error is simply too small to back him given his recent struggles.
THE PICK: Phillips
Flyweight
Charles Johnson (16-6-0) v. Su Mudaerji (16-6-0)
DK Salaries: Johnson ($8,800), Su ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Johnson (-225), Su (+185)
Johnson looked like a legitimate release candidate following a stretch of three straight defeats from last year, but the UFC granted him another opportunity, and he's rebounded in a major way. Johnson has now won three in a row, all in a span of five-plus months from this past February to July. He'll be fighting for a fourth time in 2024, this after fighting four times in 2023. It's an unprecedented workload, and it's fair to wonder if it will come back to haunt Charles at some point down the line.
Fresh off back-to-back technical submission defeats, Su is probably fighting for his job. He's 3-3 in a half-dozen bouts with the company, defeating lesser competition and struggling when the stakes are raised. For what it's worth, Johnson is on par, if not better, than the type of guys Su has been struggling with of late.
It feels as if Su has been around forever, but he's still just 28 years of age. He has more power than your typical flyweight and does a nice job of defending himself considering he often finds himself in brawls. However, like Font in the main event, he has zero means of generating secondary offense if his striking skills aren't working.
I've been very impressed with Johnson during this recent run. He's tough, dependable and doesn't stop working. In other words, he'll fight for your dollar each and every time out.
All that said, both of these guys have massive holes in their game.
Johnson typically can't defend a takedown. He allowed Joshua Van to land his only attempt his last time out. Although to his credit, he did stuff all 11 of Jake Hadley's tries in his previous bout.
Su if a fish out of water on the mat. All six of his professional defeats are via submission. That's not a strength of Johnson, who has just three submission wins in his career, but Charles can wrestle in a pinch, and that's obviously how you want to go about attacking Su.
This feels closer than the odds would lead you to believe, but Johnson seems to be making legitimate improvements of late. He's the pick in a tight one.
THE PICK: Johnson
Featherweight
Darren Elkins (28-11-0) v. Daniel Pineda (28-16-0, 3NC)
DK Salaries: Elkins ($8,000), Pineda ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Elkins (+100), Pineda (-120)
One of the toughest men in the world, Elkins turned 40 years of age in May and continues to go about his business. He's not a title contender and not even in the top-15 discussion, but he's always entertaining and clearly has some gas left in the tank if matched up against proper competition. Elkins has alternated wins and losses in his past five fights.
Pineda has been around the block. This is his second stint with the UFC. He's also fought for both Bellator and PFL. Fresh of back-to-back unanimous decision defeats to Nathaniel Wood and Alex Caceres, the 39-year-old Texan is just about out of time. I am curious as to why Pineda is getting back in the Octagon so quickly. The Wood fight was in late-July. This is a very quick turnaround for Daniel in what amounts to a must-win fight.
This is an obvious "Fight of the Night" contender.
Both Elkins and Pineda can wrestle if the circumstances dictate, but that seems to be secondary to putting on an entertaining bout. Darren's wrestled in college, but at his advanced age, most of his takedown attempts at this stage of his career are simply the result of grit and determination.
Elkins is three inches taller and has a two-inch reach edge. Both numbers seem likely to come into play here.
It's hard to get a read of just how effective Pineda can be on the feet. He was soundly out-struck by both Wood and Caceres, but I'd argue he shouldn't have been in the Octagon against either of those guys. This is a much more reasonable matchup for him, and I expect a better performance as a result.
I like backing Darren in 50/50 fights such as this one because you know he'll always fight for your dollar. He may not win, but he's the bigger man, and it's not as if Pineda has some massive edge in terms of physical gifts, which is typically the situation Elkins finds himself in at this stage of his career.
THE PICK: Elkins
Other Bouts
Bantamweight
Brady Hiestand (9-2-0) v. Jake Hadley (11-3-0)
DK Salaries: Hiestand ($8,500), Hadley ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Hiestand (-155), Hadley (+130)
THE PICK: Hiestand
Flyweight
Matheus Nicolau (19-5-1) v. Asu Almabayev (20-2-0)
DK Salaries: Nicolau ($7,500), Almabayev ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Nicolau (+145), Almabayev (-175)
THE PICK: Almabayev
Bantamweight
Brad Katona (16-3-0) v. Jean Matsumoto (15-0-0)
DK Salaries: Katona ($7,200), Matsumoto ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Katona (+210), Matsumoto (-260)
THE PICK: Matsumoto
Women's Bantamweight
Joselyne Edwards (13-6-0) v. Tamires Vidal (7-3-0)
DK Salaries: Edwards ($8,900), Vidal ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Edwards (-260), Vidal (+210)
THE PICK: Edwards
Women's Strawweight
Jessica Penne (14-8-0) v. Elise Reed (7-4-0)
DK Salaries: Penne ($7,600), Reed ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Penne (+145), Reed (-175)
THE PICK: Penne
Women's Strawweight
Melissa Martinez (7-1-0) v. Alice Ardelean (9-6-0)
DK Salaries: Martinez ($8,400), Ardelean ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Martinez (-140), Ardelean (+120)
THE PICK: Martinez
Heavyweight
Austen Lane (12-5-0, 1NC) v. Robelis Despaigne (5-1-0)
DK Salaries: Lane ($6,800), Despaigne ($9,400)
Vegas Odds: Lane (+340), Despaigne (-455)
THE PICK: Despaigne
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for [EVENT NAME] with more MMA betting content.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
