This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Vegas 88 takes place Saturday, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $700k UFC 299 Special with $200k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Heavyweight
Tai Tuivasa (15-6-0) v. Marcin Tybura (24-8-0)
DK Salaries: Tuivasa ($8,300), Tybura ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Tuivasa (-125), Tybura (+105)
It's all fallen apart on Tuivasa over the span of the past 18 months. Tasked with facing quality opponents in Alexander Volkov, Sergei Pavlovich and Ciryl Gane, Tai has suffered three straight stoppage defeats. Of course, none of this should be surprising. Tuivasa is a one-dimensional brawler that stands virtually no chance of winning if he isn't able to knock his opposition out. Set to turn 31 years of age the day this event takes place, Tai is in a boatload of trouble if his durability begins to wane even the slightest.
Tybura has quietly won seven of his past nine fights, but is just 2-2 in his past four. The two setbacks came against Volkov and current Interim UFC Heavyweight Champion Tom Aspinall, so like Tuivasa, Tybura has had no success against better competition. Now 38 years of age, this is a fight Marcin has to win, and one in which he theoretically has a clear and overwhelming path to victory.
It's virtually impossible to break down a Tuivasa fight from a technical standpoint. He's going to go out there and throw bombs and hope his opponent crumbles before he does. It's absolutely worth noting that five of Tybura's eight career losses have come via knockout. He has a pretty solid all-around offensive skill set, but durability is definitely his greatest weakness.
As a main event, this fight is scheduled for five rounds, but I'd be shocked if it went three, let alone all five. Heck, it might not get out of the first.
There's zero doubt Tybura is the better mixed martial artist. He needs to stay tight to Tuivasa in hopes of draining his gas tank. He also needs to make sure he doesn't get caught along the fence in a position in which Tai can fire off combinations. Tuivasa is among the least technical strikers in the heavyweight division, but he can very easily put you away with one massive blow.
Tossing aside the Aspinall fight because it ended in just over a minute, Tybura had connected on at least one takedown in six of his prior eight bouts. Trying to drag Tai to the mat in hopes of racking up ground control time is by far the easiest and smartest potential path to victory for Marcin.
I'm terrified by Tybura's lack of durability and could easily see him getting knocked out by Tai in an instant, but Tuivasa is a guy I want to fade most every time out, especially when he comes in as a favorite. I'll hope Marcin can score an early takedown and grind away at the limited gas tank of Tai. That should theoretically be enough for him to win.
THE PICK: Tybura
Co-Main Event - Welterweight
Bryan Battle (11-2-0) v. Ange Loosa (10-3-0)
DK Salaries: Battle ($8,600), Loosa ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Battle (-160), Loosa (+135)
A member of the UFC roster for nearly three years, the early returns for Battle have been highly encouraging. He's 5-1 in the UFC, with the lone setback coming against a guy in Rinat Fakhretdinov who looks like a legitimate contender. Battle's durable and has a multi-faceted offensive game. He's a fringe top-15 guy at the moment, with potential for more.
Loosa went three rounds with Jack Della Maddalena on the Contender Series in September 2021 and lost via unanimous decision. He still got the call to the UFC the following April and has now won back-to-back fights over Rhys McKee and AJ Fletcher on the heels of a unanimous decision loss to Mounir Lazzez in his company debut.
Loosa is a strong, muscular guy, but his stopping power hasn't carried over to the UFC, or anywhere else in recent years. In fact, each of his last seven fights have seen the final bell. Loosa's last non-decision came in October 2016. To Ange's credit, he appears to have better cardio than his frame would let you to believe. That said, Battle should have the edge in that area.
Loosa is a reckless striker. He doesn't defend himself all that well on the feet, and he's giving up three inches in both height and reach to Battle. He's going to have to find a way to mix things up if he hopes to generate consistent offense. There's zero doubt Bryan is the better athlete of the two.
Battle is going to have to be careful cause Ange is very physically strong, as I mentioned earlier, and a threat to get his wrestling game going early on. I could envision a scenario in which Loosa dominates Round 1 and Bryan takes over from there.
It's just really difficult to back any fighter that absorbs 6.88 significant strikes per minute, as Loosa does, particularly against a solid opponent in Battle.
THE PICK: Battle
Light Heavyweight
Ovince Saint Preux (26-17-0) v. Kennedy Nzechukwu (12-4-0)
DK Salaries: Saint Preux ($6,800), Nzechukwu ($9,400)
Vegas Odds: Saint Preux (+380), Nzecukwu (-500)
I'm not the least bit surprised the UFC is giving Tuivasa another opportunity. I can't say the same for Saint Preux. OSP is 2-4 in his past six fights with three of those defeats coming via knockout. He is also coming off a six-month USADA suspension due to tainted supplements. Set to turn 41 years of age in April, I fail to see the upside in running Saint Preux back out there.
Nzechukwu has been wildly inconsistent over the course of his four years with the company. He had a three-fight winning streak snapped in an 82-second knockout loss to Dustin Jacoby last August. Kennedy appeared to be making some real and legitimate improvements, but everything went out the window in the Jacoby fight. This is a prime rebound spot, and I'll be highly concerned if he isn't able to get back on track against Saint Preux.
As I've said in this space a thousand times, OSP is (was) a world-class athlete that never learned the finer points of mixed martial arts. I really expected more over the years, but Saint Preux has had durability issues and never seemed to add any new wrinkles to his game. I certainly don't expect that to change given his advanced age.
At 6-foot-5 with an 83-inch reach, Kennedy has an ideal frame for the light heavyweight division. He's extremely well coached under the tutelage of Sayif Saud and the crew at Fortis MMA in Dallas. Nzechukwu theoretically could develop into an elite wall-and-stall guy ala Neil Magny. Just use your big frame to try and pin guys on the fence and work from there.
Whether you like Nzechukwu moving forward or not, this is an easy pick. Saint Preux looks totally washed. He has one win in three-and-a-half years and that was a split decision over the since retired Shogun Rua.
I'm absolutely NOT interested in tossing $9,400 worth of my budget on Kennedy, however. He can be low output at times, and although I fail to see how OSP wins this fight, that doesn't mean I think a strong performance from Nzechukwu is a stone-cold lock. He could show up and fight at about 40 percent and it would still probably be enough to defeat the 2024 version of Saint Preux.
THE PICK: Nzechukwu
Middleweight
Gerald Meerschaert (35-17-0) v. Bryan Barberena (18-11-0)
DK Salaries: Meerschaert ($9,100), Barberena ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Meerschaert (-230), Barberena (+190)
Meerschaert is the latest in a long line of competitors that would appear to be fighting for his or her job this evening. Gerald has suffered back-to-back defeats and dropped three of his last four dating back to April 2022. He'll be 37 years of age this coming December, offers almost nothing offensively outside of his submission game and has serious durability issues. Thankfully for "GM3", this is a potentially winnable fight, at least on paper.
Barberena is in even worse shape than Meerschaert, entering having lost three in a row, with two of those setbacks coming via submission. Bryan made his middleweight debut in a unanimous decision defeat to Makhmud Muradov last July. He's remaining at 185 pounds to face Meerschaert here. I'd be really surprised if the change in weight classes has any positive impact on the soon-to-be 35-year-old Barberena.
We seen countless opponents take Barberena down and pin him to the mat for long stretches at a time. He's given up at least four takedowns in six of his past eight fights. It's a truly mind blowing number and one that essentially torpedoes any chance Bryan would have of consistently winning a decision. Meerschaert is more of a grappler than wrestler, but he averages almost exactly two takedowns per 15 minutes and he should enter with a size and strength effort over Barberena. One well-timed shot could be the difference between winning and losing in a three-round fight.
If Barberena is able to remain upright, his aggressive, high-volume striking game seems like the type of game plan that can give Meerschaert issues. Gerald has virtually no stopping power in his hands, with just six knockout wins in 52 professional fights. Bryan will have to be careful not to give his opponent easy takedown attempts with reckless combinations, but Barberena can probably get away with his usual style of eating a strike in order to land two of his own against Meerschaert.
I think Gerald wins because his grappling game is lightyears ahead of Barberena's, but to say I have no interest in him at $9,100 would be the understatement of the century. I'd be far more interested in using Bryan as a punt play in hopes he can remain upright and wear Meerschaert down with volume. There's a lot of ways this one could go.
THE PICK: Meerschaert
Other Bouts
Featherweight
Christian Rodriguez (10-1-0) v. Isaac Dulgarian (6-0-0)
DK Salaries: Rodriguez ($7,700), Dulgarian ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Rodriguez (+125), Dulgarian (-150)
THE PICK: Rodriguez
Women's Bantamweight
Pannie Kianzad (17-7-0) v. Macy Chiasson (9-3-0)
DK Salaries: Kianzad ($7,200), Chiasson ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Kianzad (+170), Chiasson (-205)
THE PICK: Chiasson
Lightweight
Natan Levy (8-1-0) v. Mike Davis (10-2-0)
DK Salaries: Levy ($7,000), Davis ($9,200)
Vegas Odds: Levy (+235), Davis (-290)
THE PICK: Davis
Women's Bantamweight
Josiane Nunes (10-1-0) v. Chelsea Chandler (5-2-0)
DK Salaries: Nunes ($8,400), Chandler ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Nunes (-140), Chandler (+120)
THE PICK: Nunes
Flyweight
Jafel Filho (15-3-0) v. Ode Osbourne (12-6-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Filho ($8,700), Osbourne ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: Filho (-180), Osbourne (+150)
THE PICK: Filho
Lightweight
Thiago Moises (17-7-0) v. Mitch Ramirez (8-1-0)
DK Salaries: N/A
Vegas Odds: Moises (-360), Ramirez (+285)
THE PICK: Moises
Featherweight
Josh Culibao (11-2-1) v. Danny Silva (8-1-0)
DK Salaries: Culibao ($8,800), Silva ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Culibao (-160), Silva (+135)
THE PICK: Silva
Women's Strawweight
Jacqueline Amorin (7-1-0) v. Cory McKenna (8-2-0)
DK Salaries: Amorin ($8,000), McKenna ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Amorin (+100), McKenna (-120)
THE PICK: Amorin
Bantamweight
Charalampos Grigoriou (8-3-0) v. Chad Angheliger (12-7-0)
DK Salaries: Grigoriou ($8,900), Angheliger ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Grigoriou (-165), Anheliger (+140)
THE PICK: Grigoriou
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC Vegas 88 with more MMA betting content.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
