This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC 299 takes place Saturday, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $700k UFC 299 Special with $200k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Bantamweight Championship
(C) Sean O'Malley (17-1-0, 1NC) v. Marlon Vera (21-8-1, 1NC)
DK Salaries: O'Malley ($9,200), Vera ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: O'Malley (-285), Vera (+230)
This is a rematch of an August 2020 which Vera won via late first-round TKO. The stoppage, which may have very well been early, was the result of O'Malley struggling with dropfoot. I thought Sean was the better fighter for as long as it lasted prior to the injury.
O'Malley won his title with an early second-round knockout of Aljamain Sterling last August. He crushed Sterling with a shot that led to the stoppage, but most impressive was his ability to remain upright on both Aljo's takedown attempts. O'Malley is gigantic for the division and is always going to thrive in striking exchanges. He's an underrated athlete, and his takedown defense is better than his 62-percent mark would lead you to believe.
Vera last fought on the same card in which O'Malley defeated Sterling. He took a unanimous decision from Pedro Munhoz that night, but I felt Munhoz deserved to win. Vera is a perfectly capable bantamweight and has legitimately improved over the years, but I still don't consider him on par with the top guys in the division.
While O'Malley is a technical and creative striker with the ability to carve up his opposition on the feet, Vera is a pure, in-your-face brawler. He lands 4.37 significant strikes per 15 minutes while absorbing 5.16 per minute. He's giving up three inches in height and two inches in reach to Sean. Do we really think he's going to be able to consistently close that distance and land plenty of volume? I have my doubts.
I still think O'Malley is going to have problems with pure grapplers, which is why I picked Sterling over him. I'd certainly take someone like Merab Dvalishvili over him. Heavily. Same goes for Umar Nurmagomedov. But it's important to remember Vera isn't a grappler. He averages 0.58 takedowns per 15 minutes and hasn't landed a single one in his last five fights. Neither man attempted a takedown in the first bout between the two.
This is an easy pick. I don't think Vera is as good as many other people do, and this looks like a bad matchup for him. I like O'Malley to use his size advantage to dominate the striking exchanges between the two and eventually overwhelm Vera on the feet on his way to retaining his title.
THE PICK: O'Malley
Co-Main Event - Lightweight
Dustin Poirier (29-8-0, 1NC) v. Benoit Saint-Denis (13-1-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Poirier ($7,300), Saint Denis ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Poirier (+185), Saint Denis (-225)
I never would have guessed in a million years that the company would have booked this fight, but it's awesome and an easy favorite for Fight of the Night.
Saint-Denis dropped a unanimous decision to Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos in his UFC debut back in October 2021 and has won five straight since, all via stoppage. There has been three knockouts and two submissions during that streak. A former French Paratrooper, Saint-Denis has displayed remarkable toughness and determination inside the Octagon. He's absolutely a skilled fighter, but it's his will to compete and battle through difficult situations that have gotten him to this spot.
Credit Poirier, now 35 years of age, for accepting a fight in which he has nothing to gain. Based upon the rankings, Dustin has everything to lose here. The odds are against Poirier entering the title picture again regardless, but a setback to Saint-Denis, which would drop him to 1-3 in his past four fights, would all but ensure it.
By far the most glaring difference between these two is the level of competition they have faced. Saint-Denis' five UFC wins are over Matt Frevola, Thiago Moises, Ismael Bonfim, Gabriel Miranda and Niklas Stolze. Dustin has UFC wins over Michael Chandler, Conor McGregor (twice), Dan Hooker, Justin Gaethje, Max Holloway (twice), and Anthony Pettis. He has losses to Gaethje, McGregor, The Korean Zombie, Charles Oliveira and Khabib Nurmagomedov. This has to be one of the widest gaps in talent discrepancy faced in company history.
I'd give Poirier the edge on the feet, but not by much. He probably has more pure power and is a bit better at defending, but it's hard to tell because Saint-Denis has never faced a high-level opponent.
The one thing I do know is that Dustin is going to have to sell out to remain upright. Saint-Denis is averaging 4.55 takedowns per 15 minutes, and Poirier is defending the takedown at a 63 percent clip. He gave up seven to Khabib, three to Chandler and four to Hooker. Saint-Denis' entries aren't always perfect, but the guy never gets tired, and that allows him to power through in his attempt to eventually ground his opposition.
This line opened with Saint-Denis as a favorite before it evened out a bit. Yet, over the course of the past week or so, a ton of money has come in on the Frenchman, steaming it to it's current -225 price tag.
Dustin is getting up there in age and has been in countless wars over the years. I could absolutely see a scenario in which the next few fights get quite ugly, but it feels like Saint-Denis is still a bit of an unknown commodity in some respects. His grit and determination appear unmatched, but are those the skills you want to rely upon in a fight against a guy like Poirier?
I'm rolling with Poirier because I think the line is too large and his salary too cheap, but I acknowledge that any sort of dominant victory one way or the other would almost certainly come from the Saint-Denis side.
THE PICK: Poirier
Welterweight
Kevin Holland (25-10-0, 1NC) v. Michael Page (21-2-0)
DK Salaries: Holland ($8,500), Page ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Holland (-135), Page (+115)
This will be the promotional debut of Page, who joins the UFC after nearly a decade in Bellator. He went 17-2 in 19 fights with the company, including 11 wins via knockout. Those not familiar with MVP are in for quite a treat. Page is a long, lanky guy that excels in creativity in the striking game. You would be hard-pressed to find a fighter that mimics his style, although Holland brings similar attributes to the table. Page will be 37 years of age in April, so he doesn't have much room for error, and this is a tough first fight.
A high-level fighter that is willing to face anyone at the drop of a hat in multiple weight classes, Holland is among the most valuable assets on the UFC roster. He's just 2-3 in his past five fights, although one of the setbacks came against Khamzat Chimaev in an 180-pound catchweight bout, and his most recent lost to Jack Della Maddalena was via split decision.
The most obvious difference between these two is the gap in talent they have gone up against. The top guys MVP faced in his Bellator days are probably Douglas Lima and Logan Storley. Holland has been in the Octagon against, among others, Della Maddalena, Michael Chiesa, Santiago Ponzinibbio, Stephen Thompson, Chimaev, Derek Brunson, Marvin Vettori, Jacare Souza and Brendan Allen. I try not to put too much stock in "MMA math," but it's sure worth considering here.
Page and Holland have extremely similar body types. Both are accustomed to using their length advantage to dominate in striking exchanges, but neither will have that option in this fight.
On a loaded Pay-Per-View card and with one guy wanting to make a big statement in his first fight with the company, I would be flabbergasted if this turned into anything other than a back-and-forth kickboxing match. I expect a ton of flashy strike attempts from both guys that often have little chance of landing. The fighter that sticks to the basics and perhaps is able to mix in a takedown at a crucial time is the man with the best chance of winning.
Flip a coin. I do have questions about Holland's fight IQ, and I think the UFC, which correctly views Page as a big star, took his potential into consideration when booking his debut against a guy in Holland that is essentially a non-grappler. I'll ever so slightly side with the newcomer in a tight decision.
THE PICK: Page
Welterweight
Gilbert Burns (22-6-0) v. Jack Della Maddalena (16-2-0)
DK Salaries: Burns ($7,600), Della Maddalena ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Burns (+125), Della Maddalena (-150)
I briefly touched on Della Maddalena above. Jack is a perfect 6-0 in the UFC, with the first four wins coming via stoppage (three knockouts, one submission) and the last two via split decision. He looked pretty good in the Holland fight but was awful in his prior bout against late-notice opponent Bassil Hafez. Della Maddalena is an easy top-10 guy at 170 pounds, but I'm not convinced he has the skill set to crack the top five. Defeating Burns would go a long way to squash the concerns.
Gilbert fought Kamaru Usman for the UFC Welterweight Championship in February 2021. He knocked Usman down early in the fight before eventually losing via KO early in Round 3. He's gone 3-2 since, with wins over Stephen Thompson, Jorge Masvidal and Neil Magny, and setbacks to Chimaev and Belal Muhammad. The obvious concern here is that the pair of fighters Burns lost to is far more talented than the three he defeated. Not to take anything away from Gilbert, but at age 37, it's far more likely than not we have already seen the best he has to offer inside the Octagon.
Anyone that watched the Hafez fight saw the blueprint for defeating Della Maddalena. Constant pressure to ensure he isn't able to get his striking game going and then plenty of top control time to waste away the clock. Hafez gassed out and wasn't able to close the show, which is the only reason Jack managed to survive.
My biggest concern regarding Della Maddalena is his brawling tendencies. He lands 7.2 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.83 per minute. He got past Holland despite the fact Kevin closed with a 127-105 edge in total strikes landed. I don't think Burns is the guy to take advantage of that weakness in Jack's game, but it's going to bite him eventually.
Burns is brilliant on the mat, as we all know, but he's not a great pure wrestler. He is very strong and an above-average athlete, but I'm not particularly worried about him attempting to employ the "Hafez attack" and going for takedown after takedown. For as long as the fight is standing, Jack has the advantage.
When this fight was first announced, my first thought was Burns is a terrible matchup for Jack. The more I think about it, I actually think the opposite is true. Gilbert is not a high-volume wrestler, so he isn't going to attack Della Maddalena like Hafez did. Sure, Jack would be in trouble with Burns on top of him, but JDM is very strong. I like his chances of remaining upright long enough to seriously damage Burns on the feet.
THE PICK: Della Maddalena
Bantamweight
Yadong Song (21-7-1, 1NC) v. Petr Yan (16-5-0)
DK Salaries: Song ($7,900), Yan ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: Song (-105), Yan (-115)
These two were due to headline an event last December, although it was never officially announced by the company. Yan ended up backing out and Song remained on the card, destroying Chris Gutierrez in a lopsided five-round unanimous decision win.
Song is 5-1 in his last six bouts, with his lone setback in that stretch coming against a legitimate title contender in Cory Sandhagen. Now 26 years of age, Song, a long-time member of Team Alpha Male, has legitimately improved over the years. He has no notable weaknesses in his game. Song might not be on the same level as Sandhagen and the other top guys in a loaded bantamweight division, but he's not far off.
I would have voted Yan as the best 135-pounder in the company not all that long ago, but now he's lost three in a row and could be fighting for his job. It's worth noting those three setbacks came against arguably the best trio of bantamweights on the roster at the time in Dvalishvili, O'Malley and Sterling. Yan got totally hosed via split decision in the O'Malley fight, and it ended up being a potentially career-altering setback.
That said, it was his most recent performance against Merab that was the big concern. Yan is known as one of the most physically strong fighters in the division. He's a strong wrestler with excellent power who rarely gets outmuscled at the point of attack. Well, Merab fired off 49 (!!!!) takedown attempts, landing 11 of them. Essentially, he spent the entire fight pressuring Yan, and the latter crumbled. Dvalishvili closed with 6:53 worth of control time, but it might as well have been 15 minutes. Yan had zero space to breathe and thus zero chance to generate any offense of his own. Song isn't going to fight like that, which is a big break for Petr.
Song is extremely confident in his power and hand speed. My guess is he's willing to engage Yan in a brawl. If that's indeed the case, I like Petr's chances. The Merab fight looks like a one-off. A worse-case scenario that is unlikely to repeat itself. Remember, Yan bested O'Malley -- the current UFC Bantamweight Champion -- just one fight prior, regardless of which man got his hand raised.
Song is talented enough to pull the minor upset, but I think Yan wins unless he has some sort of hangover from the terrible effort against Merab. Not impossible, but unlikely.
THE PICK: Yan
Other Bouts
Heavyweight
Curtis Blaydes (17-4-0, 1NC) v. Jailton Almeida (20-2-0)
DK Salaries: Blaydes ($8,200), Almeida ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Blaydes (-115), Almeida (-105)
THE PICK: Blaydes
Women's Flyweight
Katlyn Chookagian (18-5-0) v. Maycee Barber (13-2-0)
DK Salaries: Chookagian ($7,400), Barber ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Chookagian (+170), Barber (-205)
THE PICK: Barber
Lightweight
Mateusz Gamrot (23-2-0, 1NC) v. Rafael dos Anjos (32-15-0)
DK Salaries: Gamrot ($9,400), Dos Anjos ($6,800)
Vegas Odds: Gamrot (-425), Dos Anjos (+330)
THE PICK: Gamrot
Bantamweight
Pedro Munhoz (20-8-0, 2NC) v. Kyler Phillips (11-2-0)
DK Salaries: Munhoz ($7,100), Phillips ($9,100)
Vegas Odds: Munhoz (+210), Phillips (-260)
THE PICK: Munhoz
Light Heavyweight
Ion Cutelaba (17-9-1, 1NC) v. Philipe Lins (17-5-0)
DK Salaries: Cutelaba ($8,400), Lins ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: N/A
THE PICK: Cutelaba
Middleweight
Michel Pereira (29-11-0, 2NC) v. Michal Oleksiejczuk (19-6-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Pereira ($8,700), Oleksiejczuk ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: Pereira (-155), Oleksiejczuk (+130)
THE PICK: Oleksiejczuk
Heavyweight
Robelis Despaigne (4-0-0) v. Josh Parisian (15-7-0)
DK Salaries: Despaigne ($9,300), Parisian ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Despaigne (-330), Parisian (+240)
THE PICK: Despaigne
Flyweight
C.J. Vergara (12-4-1) v. Asu Almabaev (18-2-0)
DK Salaries: Vergara ($6,700), Almabayev ($9,500)
Vegas Odds: Vergara (+360), Almabayev (-470)
THE PICK: Almabayev
Women's Flyweight
Joanne Wood (16-8-0) v. Maryna Moroz (11-5-0)
DK Salaries: Wood ($7,200), Moroz ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Wood (+190), Moroz (-230)
THE PICK: Moroz
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC 299 with more MMA betting content.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
