This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
Noche UFC takes place Saturday, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $350k UFC Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Women's Flyweight Championship
(C) Alexa Grasso (16-3-0) v. Valentina Shevchenko (23-4-0)
DK Salaries: Grasso ($7,700), Shevchenko ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Grasso (+145), Shevchenko (-175)
The women's flyweight division is by far the thinnest in the company. As a result, this is the extremely rare instance in which a title fight is not contested on Pay-Per-View.
Grasso won the title in early March from Valentina, submitting her with a face crank. It was a shocking result on multiple fronts.
I never viewed Grasso as a potential future champion. She was widely inconsistent fighting at strawwweight but has improved considerably since moving up to 125 pounds. Grasso had always been a competent striker, albeit one with little power. Her ground game is better than I gave her credit for, however, and seemingly improving every time out.
Shevchenko has been trending in the wrong direction for a while. She barely got past Taila Santos via split decision in her most recent title defense prior to the first fight against Grasso. On paper, she remains the best fighter in the division by a wide margin, and I'm interested in seeing if we see Valentina get back to her old dominant ways now that she's chasing the title instead of defending it.
It's most certainly worth noting that all the advanced numbers in the first fight favored Valentina despite Grasso's victory. Shevchenko landed 4-of-6 takedown attempts and won the significant strike battle by a 87-59 count. The vast majority of Grasso's offense wasn't damaging, something that has been an issue for her in the past. I don't think she's going to be able to wear Valentina down with volume on the feet, even in a five-round fight.
Shevchenko's strength edge is still the most notable discrepancy between the two. She can muscle Grasso to the mat almost at will, and she's the better grappler regardless of Alexa's improvements there.
We've seen things like this before. Julianna Pena took the 135-pound belt from Amanda Nunes in a fight in which Amanda looked far worse in her defeat than Valentina did in hers. Those two had a rematch, and Nunes blew Pena out of the water. I don't think the gap in overall talent is as wide between Grasso and Shevchenko as those two, but everything suggests this is an ideal buy-low spot on Valentina.
This is the most reasonable DraftKings salary we've seen for Valentina in years. Even if Grasso pulls the upset again, I don't expect much fantasy production in the process.
I think the smart play here is to back Shevchenko and assume the result of the first fight was a fluke until proven otherwise.
NOCHE UFC PICK: Shevchenko
Co-Main Event - Welterweight
Kevin Holland (25-9-0, 1NC) v. Jack Della Maddalena (15-2-0)
DK Salaries: Holland ($7,900), Della Maddalena ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: Holland (+125), Della Maddalena (-150)
Holland has rebounded beautifully from back-to-back stoppage defeats to Khamzat Chimaev (submission) and Stephen Thompson (TKO, corner stoppage), knocking out Santiago Ponzinibbio and tapping out Michael Chiesa in just under three minutes in his most recent bout in late-July. Holland absorbed no damage in the Chiesa fight, so he is more than fit to get right back into the octagon here.
Della Maddalena looked unstoppable in his first four fights with the UFC, earning four stoppage wins and not breaking a sweat in doing so, but his last bout against late-notice newcomer Bassil Hafez in mid- July nearly ruined all the prior good work. JDM spent a good chunk of the fight, particularly early on, being dominated by Hafez on the mat. I thought he did enough to earn the decision, as did two of the three judges. but there's zero doubt it was a concerning performance on a number of fronts.
On the surface, this seems like a more favorable matchup for JDM. Holland is typically more than willing to stand and bang, which is clearly the type of fight in which Jack feels most comfortable. Holland isn't much of a wrestler, averaging 0.83 takedowns per 15 minutes, but after seeing what Haffez did to Della Maddalena, Holland would be extremely foolish if he didn't attempt at least a few token takedown attempts to keep Jack guessing.
Part of the reason Haffez had success was because he emptied his gas tank early on. Jack would have lost that fight if Bassil could have kept up anywhere near that pace for 15 minutes. I don't expect Holland to employ anything approaching a similar game plan, but he also isn't taking this fight on short notice and isn't going to gas out like Haffez did.
Maybe that will serve as a learning experience for JDM, and we'll be laughing about it a few years from now. As things stand at the moment, however, I don't see how you can confidently pick him against any quality welterweight, and Holland certainly falls into that category. He's galaxies better than Haffez.
In fact, looking at the Vegas odds and DK salaries, Holland looks like a value play. I'll be betting against JDM until he shows improvement inside the Octagon. I think there's a real chance -- better than 50/50 -- he was built up by beating up lesser competition.
NOCHE UFC PICK: Holland
Bantamweight
Raul Rosas (7-1-0) v. Terrence Mitchell (14-3-0)
DK Salaries: Rosas ($9,600), Mitchell ($6,600)
Vegas Odds: Rosas (-700), Mitchell (+500)
Still 18 years of age for another for weeks, Rosas will be making his third UFC appearance. He submitted Jay Perrin in less than three minutes last December before not looking all that competitive in unanimous decision loss to Christian Rodriguez this past April. It should be noted Rodriguez missed weight for that fight. Rosas is so young that the results in the Octagon are largely irrelevant at this point. All that matters is that he stays healthy and fights on a consistent basis. That said, he can't afford to go on a prolonged losing streak. We've seen the UFC force feed potential promising young fighters (Sage Northcutt, Paige VanZant, etc.) into bad situations and pay for it in the long run.
The 33-year-old Mitchell seems like a prime rebound opponent for Rosas. Mitchell spent his entire career on the Alaskan regional scene (he's from Anchorage) before debuting in the UFC in early-July. He was knocked out by Cameron Saaiman in just over three minutes. Saaiman is actually good, but nothing in Mitchell's past suggests he's anything more than roster depth.
More than anything, I'm interested in seeing potential improvements in Rosas' striking game. He's an excellent wrestler and very good on the mat, but his stand-up is a work in progress. Mitchell would be wise to try to keep this thing standing at all costs. A massive, seven-inch reach edge could spell trouble for Raul if he can't get Mitchell to the mat.
The sample size was obviously extremely small, but Saaiman landed both of his takedown attempts on Mitchell. In the interest of fairness, Terrence connected on his only attempt, as well. His best chance of remaining competitive here is to fire off plenty of volume on the feet in hopes of slowing down his opponent.
As the DraftKings salaries and Vegas odds would lead you to believe, by far the most likely outcome here is an easy Rosas win. The UFC recognizes his massive long-term potential and has zero interest in seeing him lost two in a row, so they gave him a lesser opponent. That said, I'm not paying the price tag. Too many things could go wrong for such a young kid still finding his way inside the Octagon.
NOCHE UFC PICK: Rosas
Women's Flyweight
Tracy Cortez (10-1-0) v. Jasmine Jasudavicius (9-2-0)
DK Salaries: Cortez ($8,200), Jasudavicius ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Cortez (-120), Jasudavicius (+100)
The fact Cortez has won her last six fights, including a victory on Dana White's Contender Series and her first four official bouts with the UFC, looks great on paper, but all six of those victories have come via decision, and her four with the company have all been against lesser competition (Melissa Gatto, Justine Kish, Stephanie Egger, Vanessa Melo). The start of that streak was a split decision win over Erin Blanchfield, which looks good right about now, but that came 3.5 years ago, and there's zero doubt Blanchfield would be a huge favorite if those two met today.
Jasudavicius is in a similar situation. She's 3-1 in four UFC bouts, with each one going the distance. I will say, I was impressed with what I saw from Jasmine in her win over Miranda Maverick this past June. Facing a noted wrestler, Jasmine stuffed all three of Maverick's takedown attempts and proceeded to rack up 7:35 worth of control time en route to the victory.
Cortez hasn't fought since May of last year. She was due to face Amanda Ribas in early-December before withdrawing due to a medical issue. She'll be 30 years of age this coming December, so it's imperative Cortez begin to come a bit more frequently if she hopes to make a run in what is a thin division.
The advanced numbers suggest this will be a close one. I earlier mentioned how both women see the final bell each and every time out. Cortez averages 2.8 takedowns per 15 minutes while landing 48 percent of her attempts. Jasudavicius is at 2.2 per 15 while connecting on 44 percent of her tries. Cortez's takedown defense is 71 percent, Jasmine's is 78 percent.
Cortez is the better striker in terms of volume and stringing together combinations, but Jasmine is more powerful from an upper-body perspective, particularly at the point of attack.
I have no strong lean here either way, but I keep coming back to what should be a perceived strength edge for Jasmine. Toss in the minor savings she provides, and Jasudavicius makes for a worthy underdog play.
NOCHE UFC PICK: Jasudavicius
Other Bouts
Lightweight
Daniel Zellhuber (13-1-0) v. Christos Giagos (20-10-0)
DK Salaries: Zellhuber ($8,800), Giagos ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Zellhuber (-270), Giagos (+220)
NOCHE UFC PICK: Zellhuber
Featherweight
Fernando Padilla (15-4-0) v. Kyle Nelson (14-5-1)
DK Salaries: Padilla ($8,900), Nelson ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Padilla (-260), Nelson (+210)
NOCHE UFC PICK: Padilla
Women's Strawweight
Lupita Godinez (10-3-0) v. Elise Reed (7-3-0)
DK Salaries: Godinez ($9,400), Reed ($6,800)
Vegas Odds: Godinez (-425), Reed (+330)
NOCHE UFC PICK: Godinez
Middleweight
Roman Kopylov (11-2-0) v. Josh Fremd (11-4-0)
DK Salaries: Kopylov ($9,100), Fremd ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Kopylov (-355), Fremd (+280)
NOCHE UFC PICK: Kopylov
Flyweight
Edgar Chairez (10-5-0) v. Daniel Lacerda (11-5-0)
DK Salaries: Chairez ($8,700), Lacerda ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: Chairez (-250), Lacerda (+205)
NOCHE UFC PICK: Lacerda
Lightweight
Alex Reyes (13-3-0) v. Charlie Campbell (7-2-0)
DK Salaries: Reyes ($6,900), Campbell ($9,300)
Vegas Odds: Reyes (+300), Campbell (-380)
NOCHE UFC PICK: Campbell
Women's Strawweight
Josefine Knutsson (6-0-0) v. Marnic Mann (6-1-0)
DK Salaries: Knutsson ($9,500), Mann ($6,700)
Vegas Odds: Knutsson (-520), Mann (+390)
NOCHE UFC PICK: Knutsson
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for Noche UFC with more MMA betting content.
DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
