NFL Reactions: Week 18 Recap

Week 18 always provides a blend of teams battling for playoffs spots or seeding and teams looking to get a disappointing season over. For most of the teams, I'll note a few things as I look ahead to next year. Where applicable, I'll include notable takeaways from Sunday's games. 

Saints at Buccaneers

Tampa Bay appeared to be sleepwalking in the first half. The Bucs trailed 16-6 at the half. Even at the end of the third quarter, the score was 19-13. After Baker Mayfield overreacted to a hit a defender applied to him, the Bucs seemed to wake up. As a result, they closed out the Saints in the fourth quarter and won the NFC South. I was happy to see the Buccaneers force the ball to Mike Evans instead of taking a knee on the last play of the game. The star needed five yards to tie Jerry Rice with 11 consecutive seasons with 1,000 receiving yards. Also, if Evans reached 1,000 yards and five catches, it would activate a $3 million bonus. Evans picked up nine yards on the last play, collected his money and added another chapter to his legacy. In my mind, Evans represents all that is good about football.

It was another rough season for the Saints. Chris Olave suffered a pair of concussions and played regular snaps in just six games. The main concern is Olave's long-term health. I was happy the team held him out since Week 10. The risk to Olave's health was not worth putting him on the field. Also, Alvin Kamara bounced back from an inefficient (but productive) 2023 season and was a fantasy player of the year candidate through Week 4. After that, the team was decimated by injuries, and the star runner hit 18 PPR points only once from Week 5 on. Of course, those needing Kamara in the fantasy playoffs were without him in Weeks 16 and 17 due to a groin injury. Kamara will be 30 next year, and he'll likely remain a third-round pick.

Baker Mayfield proved his skeptics wrong by having an incredible season. The Buccaneers' passing attack was one of the most fun parts of the 2024 season. Also, Bucky Irving became one of the best late-round values in fantasy by topping 1,400 scrimmage yards despite starting the season as a backup to Rachaad White. Tampa Bay players are likely to be hot commodities in 2025 drafts. I'll be riding that train as well.

Chiefs at Broncos

Denver played a non-competitive Chiefs squad. That led to the Broncos easily clinching the No. 7 seed, which means a trip to Buffalo for the wild-card playoffs.

Since the No. 1 seed was locked up in Week 17, the Chiefs rested key players. In the couple weeks the team had both Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy on the field, we began to see the overall offensive explosiveness we had hoped for during preseason. Kansas City might be peaking on offense just in time for another postseason run.

With low expectations across much of the fantasy community, Bo Nix put together an impressive rookie season. Of course, the biggest beneficiary was Courtland Sutton, who had his first 1,000-yard season since 2019. If Denver can improve its rushing attack, this could be a fun offense to invest in next year.

Chargers at Raiders

This game was close in the first half. From the mid-second quarter on, the Chargers imposed their will and easily beat their division rivals. Quentin Johnston had a career game, but his performance was so outrageously good, I don't think it means anything in terms of projecting him next year. In any case, Los Angeles is the No. 5 seed in the AFC playoffs, which means it will play at Houston next weekend.

The big takeaway from the 2024 Raiders was Brock Bowers, who had the best season I've ever seen from a rookie TE. Bowers set the rookie record for most receptions in a season — and that includes wide receivers. My only question is whether Bowers or Trey McBride should be the first tight end taken in 2025. Regardless, both players are superstars. Now let's see if Las Vegas can get Bowers a better QB next year!

I learned not to doubt Jim Harbaugh this year. I didn't think the Chargers would be competitive with what I expected to be a bad defense. The L.A. coaching staff made the most of its defensive talent and had a strong unit all year, and that helped the team make the playoffs. The two big stories were J.K. Dobbins and Ladd McConkey. Dobbins beat the odds after coming back from another devastating injury to be a strong fantasy factor when healthy. Also, McConkey was significantly better than I thought he'd be. I did not see a scenario where a 1,000-yard season was in play. It's hard to see McConkey going later than the third or fourth round in 2025.

Bears at Packers

Green Bay is the seventh seed in the NFC playoffs. After a bit of a slow start to the season, Josh Jacobs was a beast from Week 7 on. After failing to reach 16.5 PPR points in the first six games, Jacobs had 20-plus fantasy points in almost every game thereafter. Jacobs is a solid top-4 running back in 2025. However, the concern is the passing attack. Jordan Love looked like a different QB than we saw late in the 2023 season. That led to inconsistent fantasy performances from the pass catchers. It also blows my mind that the coaching staff didn't find a way to get the ball into Jayden Reed's hands as often as possible. Unless I hear in the offseason that Love is having a standout offseason, I don't expect to heavily invest in the Packers' passing attack.

Many football analysts have decided that Caleb Williams is the third-best QB in this year's rookie class. I am not there yet. The Chicago coaching was a disaster this year. Many quarterbacks benefit from coaches who scheme receivers open quickly to create easy connections. Williams was not provided any favors in that area. Also, the talent on the offensive line is actually not bad. However, the coaching did little to help the unit work together to pick up the simulated pressures that are common in the league. That led to Williams being under an incredible amount of pressure. If Chicago gets a strong offensive coach in the offseason, Williams and DJ Moore could be two excellent values in fantasy drafts.

Texans at Titans

Next week, the Texans will represent the AFC South in the playoffs as the No. 4 seed. It seems improbable that Stefon Diggs will be back in 2025. Also, I am worried that Tank Dell may not be a factor in (at least) the first half of the season as he recovers from a terrible knee injury. Otherwise, the team needs to bring in a new offensive line coach. The line played well below its talent level this season. Also, I would make a change at offensive coordinator. With C.J. Stroud taking a big step back from a great rookie season, I don't think Bobby Slowik did enough to put Stroud in advantageous positions. If the offensive system improves, Stroud, Nico Collins and Joe Mixon will be strong fantasy options. In terms of the playoffs, it would be a surprise if Houston advances to the second round.

The Titans don't have a lot to build on after a rough season. The offensive line was one of the worst in the league. It was incredible that Tony Pollard  overcame the weak line to have an excellent campaign. The veteran battled through an ankle injury down the stretch, but he continued to play well. Still, Tyjae Spears is a very good player, so Pollard will remain outside the top-20 RBs in fantasy due to the timeshare. In terms of the passing attack, if Will Levis or Mason Rudolph is the QB, the passing-game weapons will be tough to trust in fantasy.

Commanders at Cowboys

The Commanders were horrible in the first half Sunday. At that point, they pulled Jayden Daniels. Then, Marcus Mariota led the team to 20 points and a win in the second half, and Washington secured the sixth seed in the NFC playoffs.

Between losing Dak Prescott in Week 9 along with major injuries on the defense, this was a lost season for the Cowboys. However, those who invested in Rico Dowdle benefited from an improbable run of 100-yard games that began in Week 13. Before Week 13, he never rushed for more than 87 yards. Down the stretch, Dowdle was a league winner. If Dallas doesn't bring in another RB in the offseason, Dowdle should be a top-18 RB. If the Cowboys bring in competition, I have concerns that the running back is someone who could quickly lose work.

I was surprised that the Commanders made the playoffs. I didn't expect the offensive line to be good, I thought that Jayden Daniels would take time to develop and there was no thought that coach Dan Quinn would get much out of the defense. I was wrong on all counts. Daniels is likely to be a top-four QB in 2025 fantasy drafts, as he's one of the few at his position who can put up strong rushing and passing numbers. Actually, Terry McLaurin's receptions and yards were in line with his career norms. However, his touchdown total surpassed his two best scoring seasons combined. Touchdowns are not always repeatable. As a result, we could see McLaurin overdrafted in 2025. 

Panthers at Falcons

This was a wild game in which neither team could stop the other. Certainly, the Falcons were watching the scoreboard of the Tampa Bay game. With the Saints leading for much of that game, Atlanta hoped a win would get them in the playoffs. However, just as this game went to overtime, the Bucs won, which eliminated the Falcons from the playoff picture. Soon after, the Panthers won the game as Miles Sanders scored his second TD of the day.

It was great to see Bryce Young go from being a player who looked outmatched at the professional level to a player who now has a likely career as a low-end starter or high-end backup. I don't see him as a player who will be inside the top-24 QBs next year, but I'm open to changing my mind if the progress continues through the offseason. When healthy, Adam Thielen continued to defy Father Time. Still, the veteran will be 35 next year. Regardless, if the draft cost is fair, taking another shot on Thielen seems merited. Finally, with another unfortunate knee injury to Jonathon Brooks, Chuba Hubbard is definitely in the RB1 discussion. Hubbard posted 1,366 scrimmage yards and 11 TDs in 15 games.

At least Michael Penix will have some NFL game experience as he begins a full offseason as the Falcons' starting QB. Aside from an excellent drive late in Week 16 against the Commanders, Penix appears to have much to work on before being considered a strong quarterback. He started this game off slowly, but eventually pounded Drake London with targets, which led to London having his best game of the season. Also, Penix passed for 312 yards.  Due to the weakness of the Carolina defense, there isn't much to learn about the rookie QB. If Penix develops well this offseason, we can hope that it leads to increased production for London and even Kyle Pitts. As for Pitts, I won't chase him in 2025 drafts. However, if the tight end falls far enough, I will consider taking him as a stash-and-hope TE2.

Dolphins at Jets

Tua Tagovailoa missed significant time with another concussion. He also suffered a hip injury and missed the last two games of the season with a playoff spot on the line. In addition, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle had horrible seasons. Also, De'Von Achane averaged single-digit PPR points in the games that Tagovailoa was out. I have to assume Miami will consider a coaching change. That said, is there any guarantee that a new coach will be able to do much with the offense? Finally, if Mike McDaniel loses his job, we may not be able to count on Jonnu Smith next year. Achane is the only Miami player I'll target in drafts.

The Jets were one of the biggest disappointments of the season. When their offense was broken, they fired the defensive-minded head coach. That led to the defense taking a huge step back. Aaron Rodgers was a player we hoped could be 70 percent of his former self coming off of injury. Instead, he looked like a player who no longer was a useful starter. Still, the biggest disappointment for me was Breece Hall. After he played amazing football in terrible circumstances the previous two years, I expected 1,500 scrimmage yards to be the worst-case scenario. Not only did Hall fall far short of his expected floor, but he had four weeks where he posted fewer than seven PPR points. If the organization shakes things up, I'm willing to go back to betting on Hall, but the draft cost will need to be no earlier than the back half of the second round.

Seahawks at Rams

During preseason I talked about the lack of success that college-only coaches had when taking over NFL offenses. The main issue was that college coaches who are successful usually had some combination of a system or talent that made the offenses difficult for defenses to stop. In most cases, those college coaches could roll out the same game plan each week, and it would work all year. In the NFL, defenses are making adjustments in the first half of the first game. That leads to the former college coaches being asked to do something foreign to them — change elements of the offense and evolve. For Seattle, Ryan Grubb's offense looked good for a couple weeks. After that, the coach was outmatched. For fantasy, it was great to see Jaxon Smith-Njigba break out. Otherwise, it was mostly a lost season for the fantasy value of the Seattle players. If Seattle doesn't go in a different direction at offensive coordinator, I may avoid their skill-position players in drafts.

In typical Sean McVay fashion, the Rams sat every key player in a game they believed didn't matter. During the season, Puka Nacua missed five games, but otherwise, he picked up where he left off as a rookie. As long as Nacua continues playing for McVay, the receiver will be an elite fantasy option on a per-game basis. Cooper Kupp has played three seasons since his elite season in 2021. Since 2022, the receiver averaged 67 receptions, 753 yards and 5.6 touchdowns. Otherwise, the worst part of the regular season was the way it ended for Kupp. He actually was a solid fantasy option through Week 12 (aside from the four games he was injured). However, in Kupp's last five games, he failed to reach 5.5 PPR points four times. After missing at least five games in three consecutive years, the late-2024 decline and a player who will be 32 in June, I don't expect to have any Kupp shares.

49ers at Cardinals

Those who invested a high pick in Marvin Harrison lived through a season of disappointment. Going into this season, we had seen amazing rookie campaigns from Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase and Puka Nacua. The logic that a rookie receiver couldn't dominate was proven false. Still, Harrison reminded us that there is always a significant leap of faith we take when drafting rookies early in fantasy. Although I think the world of Kyler Murray, I'm beginning to question his ceiling as an NFL QB. For years, I've blamed coaching and weapons for Murray's shortcomings. Murray has 41 touchdown passes and 22 interceptions in 35 games the last three years. Too many opponents have slowed him in what appeared to be decent matchups. His rushing ability still makes him a fantasy starter, but the days of projecting him as a top-6 QB are likely over.

The team with one of the most disappointing years was the 49ers. It all started with players having contract squabbles in summer. Then in August, we found out that Christian McCaffrey has issues with his Achilles. If there ever was a case for avoiding a team in fantasy based on preseason vibes, this was a great example. Still, George Kittle recorded his fourth season with at least 1,000 yards, and unlike most of his other seasons, the tight end didn't have many lean weeks. Kittle will be 31 next year, but he'll be worth a look as the third tight end in drafts.

Jaguars at Colts

After an odd season with Anthony Richardson, it will be interesting to see if the Colts move in a different direction at QB. Obviously, Richardson has very few snaps in the NFL, so he is still learning. However, there are very few ways to justify a 47.7 percent completion percentage. For fantasy, Richardson ran for 499 yards and six TDs in 11 games. If he starts in 2025, he'll have fantasy value on that alone.

One of the best stories of the season was Brian Thomas. Much of the fantasy community saw Thomas as the clear No. 4 receiver in the rookie draft class. Things can change, but with one year in the books, it looks like Thomas and Malik Nabers are in line to be megastars. Playing on a terrible Jacksonville offense did nothing to slow Thomas from having an elite season. Otherwise, it was another disappointing season for Trevor Lawrence, between lack of production and injuries. The QB will be going into his fifth season, and it's difficult to make a case for Lawrence being anything close to the "generational prospect" we hoped to see. Also, Travis Etienne had a strong fantasy year in 2023, but those who drafted him this year acquired with one of the biggest busts in fantasy. Those willing to gamble on a rebound should get Etienne in the fifth or sixth round in drafts. As of today, I will let someone else take that risk. 

Bills at Patriots

Buffalo is ready to take another shot to try to finally make it to the Super Bowl. Josh Allen continues to be one of the most exciting fantasy players around, and though I rarely draft QBs high, it's easy to see why others willingly take the plunge each year. Khalil Shakir was a great value in 2024 drafts as an excellent slot receiver, but with Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid in the offense, I don't know that the Bills will have a weekly "go to" pass catcher in 2025.

The good news from this season for the Patriots is that they have their quarterback of the future in Drake Maye. In addition, they'll have a chance to add a premium player in the 2025 draft.  Had they lost this game, the Patriots would've had the No. 1 pick in the 2025 draft. With the win, they'll now pick at No. 4. However, there are enough holes on the roster, especially at offensive line, that a successful rebuild may not happen until Maye gets his first big contract. For fantasy, it will be interesting to see if Kayshon Boutte could be in line for a third-year breakout.

Giants at Eagles

It was another lost season for the Giants. Malik Nabers is a superstar and hopefully he will have an upgraded QB situation next year. Nabers had a high fantasy floor most weeks, but it would be amazing to see the receiver unlocked. Also, Tyrone Tracy put together a number of impressive games. We'll have to see if the Giants see the running back as part of a committee, or if he can be a lead back. I see Tracy as a rotational back, but if he's the only game in town, he'll need to be drafted accordingly in 2025.

The Eagles treated this like a bye week. That was a wise move as Philly has a realistic chance to represent the conference in the Super Bowl. Next year, Saquon Barkley will be an obvious top fantasy pick, but it will be interesting to see how far A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith slide, now that we realize the Eagles are a run-first offense.

Injuries

• Jordan Love left the game with an elbow injury, but he warmed up on the sideline in the fourth quarter when the Packers had a chance to take a late lead. Love didn't enter the game at that time, but the fact he was warming up gives hope that he'll be ready for the playoffs.
• Christian Watson suffered a knee injury and was carted off the field.
• Isaac Guerendo was carted off the field with an injury to his lower body.
• Blake Corum sustained a forearm injury.