Job Battles: Wideouts and Tight Ends

Like the article before it addressed quarterbacks and running backs, this article means to break down the most fantasy-relevant competitions among the league's wide receivers and tight ends.

The blurbs are grouped by position and then sort in alphabetical order. The players for each blurb are listed left to right in descending presumed fantasy value.

Wide Receiver

Andy Isabella vs. Hakeem Butler vs. Trent Sherfield vs. KeeSean Johnson vs. Damiere Byrd vs. Pharoh Cooper vs. Kevin White, ARZ

Christian Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald are probably locked in for about 1,000 snaps each, and David Johnson figures to run lots of wide receiver routes even as a running back. Even with that the case, there are more wide receiver snaps than usual up for grabs in Arizona. If someone should win a substantial amount of those, the number of pass attempts in Arizona might dictate mainstream fantasy utility for someone even beyond Kirk and Fitz.

For most of the remaining snaps we're probably looking at Sherfield, an undrafted but promising second-year player out of Vanderbilt, and then the rookie trio of Andy Isabella (62nd overall), Butler (103rd overall), and Johnson (174th overall). Isabella is small (5-foot-9, 188 pounds) but burning fast (4.31-second 40) with outrageous production at Massachusetts. The worry is he might lack the release technique and catch radius for his speed to play at the NFL level, but I think those things will probably just force an adjustment on Isabella's part rather than doom his career. Butler (6-foot-5, 227 pounds) has a huge frame and 4.48 speed to go with it, making him a profound downfield threat. He carries similar release concerns as Isabella, though, and Butler dealt with extensive drops issues at Iowa State. Johnson is the ugly duckling of the group, possessing athletic traits well below the average at 6-foot-1, 201 pounds (4.6-second 40, 30-inch vertical). Johnson got this far thanks to his skill set, which is probably more advanced than Isabella and Butler both. The question is whether his disadvantage for size and speed makes his advanced skill set moot.

This offense should feature more four- and five-wide sets than any other offense, which means it will likely entail more slot receiver snaps than any other offense. Fitzgerald and Kirk project for first dibs on such snaps in nearly every case, which means it might be easier to get on the field at outside receiver than inside if you're one of Isabella, Butler, Johnson, or Sherfield. I think this bodes especially well for Isabella since his speed is automatically useful for setting the safety's position, and for Sherfield because he already showed well as an outside receiver as an undrafted rookie last year.

Sherfield was one of my favorite undrafted prospects last year and his overlooked but promising rookie year only has me feeling more stubborn about the idea lately. He has the prospect profile of a justifiable third-round pick, and he heads into 2019 with 344 NFL snaps to his credit on a team that lacks wide receiver experience yet projects for the most routes run in the league. Sherfield broke out as a true sophomore at Vanderbilt with 51 catches for 659 yards and three scores on a team that threw for only 2,062 yards and 11 touchdowns (32 percent yardage share), and over the next two years he caught 64.1 percent of his targets at 9.2 YPT on a team that completed only 55.5 percent of its passes at 6.8 YPA over the same span. At 6-foot, 203 pounds Sherfield logged a 4.45-second 40-yard dash at the Vanderbilt pro day, adding an average agility score (11.1) and above average broad jump (125 inches). That profile grades as starter-viable to me, and then as a rookie in a cursed offense he turned 28 targets into a totally solid 19 catches for 210 yards and a touchdown (67.9 percent catch rate, 7.5 YPT in an offense that logged a 57.2 percent completion rate at 5.8 YPA).

Byrd, Cooper, and White are all technically in contention for snaps, too, but White seems like a long shot while Byrd and Cooper would largely justify themselves by special teams work.

John Brown vs. Robert Foster vs. Zay Jones vs. Cole Beasley, BUF

Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll is smart to spread the field for Josh Allen, playing up the threat posed by his arm strength while opening running lanes otherwise. For the Bills to pursue Brown and Beasley in free agency shows they plan to explore the premise further, and might indicate they plan to ask more mileage of their receivers in 2019.

The question is at what rate that mileage will exchange for targets, and what it might mean for the pecking order. Jones and Foster are not only the most tenured of the group, but arguably the best prospects at this point with Jones scoring six times in the final seven games of 2018 while Foster torched to the tune of 541 yards and three touchdowns on just 44 targets (61.4 percent catch rate, 12.3 YPT). With that said, the Bills paid up for both Beasley ($7.25 million per year) and Brown ($9 million per year), so it would seem that little is assured for Jones or Foster.

Because both Brown and Foster profile best for the deepest routes, I think most of the tension here is between Jones and Beasley. They're both slot receivers primarily, and it'd take a four-wide set to clear room for both in a given play if Brown and Foster are outside. I question whether a slot wideout suits Allen's nature as a passer – I cringe to think of how badly Allen might miss the 5-foot-8 Beasley – especially since Jones only caught 54.9 percent of his targets despite an unremarkable drop rate (4.9 percent). So for me, Jones and Beasley carry the most risk, although if Allen's accuracy improves then one of the two could lead the team in receptions if they push the other to the margins.

Curtis Samuel vs. D.J. Moore, CAR

I think it's at best a hasty assumption to project Moore as the clear WR1 in Carolina. Although he's the more hyped prospect as a first-round pick who produced efficiently as a rookie, Moore's skill set isn't as rounded as Samuel's, and it's not as if Samuel lacks any pedigree or athleticism. He was a dominant player at Ohio State and possesses 4.31 speed.

Despite splitting his college reps between running back and receiver, Samuel is likely the more polished route runner between himself and Moore, which could make Samuel the more consistent option. Moore is a menace after the catch and possesses better hands than Samuel, but Samuel's speed and route running afford better separation tendencies.

Consider: Moore's rookie season ended with 55 catches for 788 yards and two touchdowns on 82 targets (67.1 percent catch rate, 9.6 YPT) – excellent for a player who just turned 22 in February. But Moore also averaged nearly as many yards after the catch (7.7) as he did depth of target (8.7). That 7.7 yards after the catch per catch rated as top 97th percentile, meaning he would be hard-pressed to maintain it even as one of the league's best runners after the catch. If that average declines, he would need to either catch more passes or increase his depth of target while maintaining the prior catch rate. For some perspective, teammate Jarius Wright posted a top 65th-percentile average of 4.8 yards after the catch last year, which for Moore's sample would reduce the yardage total to 7.6 yards per target.

If anything, Samuel shows potential growth in this respect. Samuel was a killer running back prospect before moving to receiver, and his ability to run after the catch is obvious on tape. And yet, as he averaged 7.6 yards per target last year, Samuel only averaged 3.0 yards after the catch per catch. If you raise his average yardage after the catch to the 4.8 variable used in the Moore hypothetical, Samuel's yards per target jumps to 8.7.

There's a good chance that I'm just splitting hairs and that both Moore and Samuel will feast this year, but I think Samuel in the ninth round is clearly a better deal than Moore in the fourth.

Jarvis Landry vs. Antonio Callaway vs. Rashard Higgins, CLE

When a receiver opens their career with 390 receptions for 5,476 yards and 44 touchdowns on 622 targets from Eli Manning (62.7 percent catch rate, 8.8 YPT), doing so over just 59 games, that player is basically beyond question for me. So I can't buy the idea that Odell Beckham's workload in Cleveland faces some sort of jeopardy due to the personnel already present, because I think Beckham's talent is an overruling factor. Moreover, I don't consider the Browns any more crowded for pass catchers than the Giants, who had all of Sterling Shepard, Evan Engram, and Saquon Barkley last year, a year where Beckham produced at a 1,400-yard, eight-touchdown pace despite Manning's continued descent.

Instead of Beckham, I'd say it's Landry who needs to worry about his target share. This traditionally has not been an issue for Landry – indeed, he out-targeted Beckham already when the two played at LSU. But Landry struggled last year, and he saw his prominence in the passing game decline specifically as the rest of the Cleveland passing game came to life. Landry had one legitimately strong season in the NFL, which was when he turned 131 targets into 94 receptions for 1,136 yards and four touchdowns (71.8 percent catch rate, 8.7 YPT) in 2016. His other four NFL seasons provide a much bigger sample, though, and in those he posted a catch rate of 65.8 percent at 6.6 yards per target. That's trash, to be frank.

So when someone suggests Beckham will need to concede something to Landry, I point toward those four years, and then Landry's eight games under Freddie Kitchens. Landry saw just 55 targets in Kitchens' eight games as interim coach, whereas the Hue Jackson game plan hammered Landry with 94 in the first eight games. Do you want to bet that Landry's target count will be helped by the arrival of Beckham? I don't.

Landry's struggles under Kitchens were such that I not only see Beckham as a threat for Landry's target count, but even Callaway and Higgins. Callaway figures to play mostly outside after logging a 13.2-yard average depth of target and playing outside more than three times as often as the slot in 2018. Even so, Callaway could prove Baker Mayfield's second preferred target on any given play behind Beckham. Given Beckham's history of muscle injuries, Callaway could pay off tremendously as a Beckham fade if Beckham keeps getting hurt.

I would guess Higgins is something like the top backup at inside and outside receiver both, which could allow him to approach Callaway's snap count even if he begins most games on the bench. Landry needs to worry about Higgins eating into his slot snap count, too. Higgins played the slot about evenly with his outside snaps and was highly effective last year, catching 70.9 percent of his targets while averaging 10.8 yards per target. Landry's contract was reported as a five-year, $75 million deal but 2019 is the last year of guaranteed salary, meaning he might not be in the team's plans beyond 2019. There is no institutional incentive for the Browns to stand by Landry if he fails to produce. Similarly, there's little reason to think Callaway and Higgins won't produce.

Geronimo Allison vs. Marquez Valdes-Scantling vs. Jake Kumerow vs. Equanimeous St. Brown, GB

It remains to be seen whether Green Bay's wide receiver loadout at minicamp sticks through training camp, but new coach Matt LaFleur's initial look featured a three-wide set with Valdes-Scantling and Davante Adams outside while Allison played the slot. That could be LaFleur deferring to last year's depth chart before tinkering with it over the course of the summer, but for now that's our presumed starting three.

If that remains the case, then Allison probably projects as Aaron Rodgers' second-leading target. If you buy into the idea of a resurgence season for Rodgers, then in that scenario it almost necessarily projects Allison for a breakout season. Valdes-Scantling's sub-4.4 speed makes him the logical field-stretching target of the top three, and while he could prove plenty valuable himself, Valdes-Scantling's target volume might lag relative to Allison since MVS' targets would be higher difficulty at a higher average depth of target.

Allen Lazard and former fourth-round pick J'Mon Moore are also around, but after Allison and MVS the presumed next in line are Kumerow and St. Brown. St. Brown was arguably a better prospect than MVS last year despite going a round later in the draft, and by the end of the year had mostly closed the gap on MVS for workload considerations. Besides, MVS will turn 25 in October while St. Brown will only turn 23 in September. That age difference means MVS should have been the better player than St. Brown all along, but it's also an advantage that declines with each passing day. St. Brown was already arguably the more effective player last year, catching 58.3 percent of his targets at 9.1 YPT while Valdes-Scantling caught 51.4 percent of his at 8.0 YPT. St. Brown's average depth of target (13.9) was higher than that of MVS (12.8), so the lower catch rate in MVS' case can't be explained by higher target difficulty.

Kumerow is the wildcard as a 27-year-old career practice squad guy out of Wisconsin-Whitewater. Rodgers is an enthusiastic fan of Kumerow, and with a new coaching regime there's an opportunity for him to end up in the starting lineup given the weakness of the field. Kumerow mostly played outside in his limited showing last year, which could make his interests primarily at odds with Valdes-Scantling's. Given St. Brown's substantial slot workload last year, perhaps we can frame his interests as at odds with Allison's.

Devin Funchess vs. Deon Cain vs. Parris Campbell vs. Chester Rogers, IND

Funchess is loathed by much of the football community. A lot of Panthers fans hate him for dropping a bunch of passes, and fantasy football owners often resent him for failing to break out as anticipated. Just because a sleeper fails you doesn't mean they're never going to be good, though – you might have just been too early. If Eric Ebron taught us any lesson last year, it's that going to the Andrew Luck-Frank Reich offense can do a lot to help out a career underachiever.

Not only was the Colts passing game great last year, but it was great despite a distinct lack of pass-catching talent. After playing 598 snaps last year Zach Pascal is the third-most tenured Colts wideout after Rogers and T.Y. Hilton, yet I doubt he makes the team. The departures of Ryan Grant and Dontrelle Inman vacate nearly 1,200 more snaps. Funchess should be considered the favorite to earn the majority of those snaps.

If there's a complication for Funchess it's presented by Campbell, a second-round pick out of Ohio State, and Cain, a sixth-round pick last year who missed his rookie season with an ACL tear. Both Campbell and Cain are highly talented athletes, and Campbell in particular might be a top-five athlete at receiver league-wide. Campbell was a bit of a slow starter at Ohio State, though, so he might be at a disadvantage relative to Cain and even Rogers, who saw 72 targets last year and offers Luck a highly reliable short-range option (6.7 YPT in 2018, but at 73.6 percent catch rate).

Between Campbell's inexperience and Rogers' slot-specific role, I have to think that if Funchess fails then it will be because of the emergence of Cain specifically. I have to credit @unclebengi for getting me to take this possibility more seriously. Although Cain was a sixth-round pick, he only fell that far because teams doubted his character. He was a high five-star recruit at Clemson and generally played well there, but since he was something short of Sammy Watkins he was a big disappointment anyway. Clemson coaches did not have his back and his stock suffered accordingly. But at 6-foot-2, 202 pounds Cain is both fast (4.43-second 40) and quick (6.71-second three cone), and right off the bat he should be the team's second-best deep threat aside from Hilton.

Cain is still returning from an ACL tear, though, and the Colts have an incentive to feed Funchess to drive up the compensatory pick they might get when his one-year contract is up. That incentive harmonizes with the fact that Funchess is probably their best intermediate and red-zone target in the meantime anyway.

Mecole Hardman vs. Demarcus Robinson vs. Byron Pringle vs. Gehrig Dieter, KC

It's anyone's guess where this Tyreek Hill situation is headed, and if Hill faces no suspension or a minimal suspension then the answer to this question becomes a lot less important. But for now, Hill's standing is uncertain and the Chiefs need someone other than the injury-prone Sammy Watkins to do something at receiver.

Although Robinson is a former fourth-round pick in his fourth season with the Chiefs, the favorite is the rookie Hardman, a second-round pick out of Georgia. Robinson could come out ahead, but his career production is trash – 59.7 percent catch rate at 6.9 YPT – and that's even with a fluke 89-yard touchdown last year inflating the numbers. Hardman has his own concerns as a raw former cornerback/quarterback who even now is only in his third year of wide receiver play, but the fact that he's an elite athlete who's proven a quick study so far bodes well for his upside. He looks every bit as fast as the 4.33 he ran at the combine, and Hardman otherwise plays with a ferocious motor.

If not Hardman or Robinson, Pringle and Dieter would seem to be the next best bets. Dieter is an under-athletic overachiever type who lacks the speed to pose a conventional downfield threat, so I question whether he'd be able to earn snaps with all of Hill, Watkins, Hardman, Robinson, and Travis Kelce projecting as superior slot options. It's Pringle who interests me most after Hardman, because Pringle is at least fast (4.46-second 40) and was an effective downfield specialist at Kansas State. Marcus Kemp is technically another leading consideration after Hardman and Robinson, but Kemp makes the team because of his special teams work.

N'Keal Harry vs. Josh Gordon vs. Demaryius Thomas vs. Phillip Dorsett vs. Dontrelle Inman vs. Maurice Harris vs. Jakobi Meyers

Gordon (suspension) and Thomas (Achilles' tear, Dec. 23) would jump to the front of this list for me if their availability were assured, but it can't so the training camp battle won't feature either for the moment. In the meantime that leaves us with Harry, the first-round pick out of Arizona State, Dorsett, Harris, Inman, and Meyers, an undrafted slot wideout out of North Carolina State.

Dorsett is maybe a bit overlooked as a former first-round pick with 777 snaps logged in the Brady-McDaniels system, but he hasn't been able to click with Brady to this point. He's seen just 60 targets in those 777 snaps, catching 44 for 484 yards and three touchdowns (73.3 percent catch rate, 8.1 YPT). That's very efficient, but the low target volume indicates that Brady isn't throwing to Dorsett deep for whatever reason, and the resulting short-range tendencies only play when Brady's already looked at Julian Edelman and James White on a given snap. Something more is theoretically possible here – Dorsett is very fast, very quick, and has shown highly reliable hands, so it's hard to figure out what more he could do to help his case. It seems like his skill set just doesn't mesh well with Brady's.

After Gordon, Thomas, Harry, and Dorsett, Inman would project as the best remaining outside target. New England media described his minicamp showing as a struggle, so perhaps he's a long shot to stick. But Inman has some real skill as an outside target, a capacity in which he was Indianapolis' second-best option after T.Y. Hilton last year. Inman has an 800-yard season to his credit (San Diego, 2016) with a career line of 8.1 YPT at a 60.8 percent catch rate. He can't be ruled out as a potential factor unless New England cuts him, though Tom Brady's recent trend of shunning the deep ball doesn't bode well for Inman.

If Brady is reduced to a short-route quarterback at this point, then it bodes well for Harry, Harris, and Meyers. Harry is locked into the game plan as a first-round pick with prodigious production in his three years at Arizona State, and at 6-foot-2, 228 pounds he might even be able to handle tight end-like tasks. You'll notice New England's tight end lineup is remarkably weak, so I think that's a real possibility. Harris earned good offseason reviews from New England media, but he's such an exceedingly weak prospect with such poor NFL production to this point (61.5 percent catch rate, 6.7 YPT) that I have trouble imagining him making an impact in regular season games. Even so, he's probably a better bet than Meyers, an interesting player who produced well as a college slot receiver after moving from quarterback, but one whose undrafted status and mediocre athleticism (4.63-second 40) generally point toward the practice squad.

Donte Moncrief vs. James Washington vs. Diontae Johnson, PIT

Ben Roethlisberger led the NFL with 5,129 passing yards last year, and the departure of Antonio Brown marks the loss of 168 targets. That's enough target volume to maybe prop up two fantasy-relevant wideouts, but there should be at least one in Brown's wake.

Minicamp observers singled out Moncrief as the early leader in the race for Pittsburgh's WR2 role, which I think is to just about declare him the winner of the competition. Moncrief is a free agent addition, so if he already looks better than Washington despite Washington's advantage in the system, then Moncrief could even build his lead from here if he picks up the system further. No one will ever mistake him for reliable, but Moncrief is both the biggest Pittsburgh wideout (6-foot-2, 221 pounds) and the fastest (4.40-second 40-yard dash). Roethlisberger loves to chuck the ball deep, and no one on the Steelers roster can cover ground or present the catch radius Moncrief can. Even if you don't believe in Moncrief's skill, this sort of scenario is one where the system could dictate a productive season.

Washington picked up tons of hype in the preseason last year, but the second-round pick out of Oklahoma State tanked in the regular season, turning 38 targets into just 16 receptions for 217 yards. It's a small sample and the targets were generally high difficulty (16.2 yards average depth of target), so there's no reason to call Washington a bust, but last year's results imply that Washington has some catching up to do if he's going to get into Moncrief's territory. That's particularly true because Washington is a receiver more dependent on skill than tools, as his combine showing was mediocre at best (4.54-second 40, 11.43 agility score). If Washington is lacking in skills at his current stage of development, then it's hard to see why he'd keep up with the toolsy Moncrief even if we concede the premise that Moncrief himself lacks skill.

The wildcard is Johnson, a rookie third-round pick out of Toledo. He's a tough prospect evaluation for me, because while he was very productive at Toledo as an outside receiver (123 catches for 2,039 yards and 21 touchdowns on 200 targets over the last two years), he wasn't uniquely productive relative to undrafted teammates Cody Thompson and Jon'Vea Johnson, so I think you're cornered into either saying he was the product of the Toledo system, or that the other two Toledo receivers are good, too. The truth might be somewhere in the middle, but even if so I think that puts Johnson well behind Moncrief and Washington both. There's further cause for concern in the fact that Johnson didn't test well at the combine, posting a 4.53-second 40, 33.5-inch vertical, and brutal 11.54 agility score despite checking in at a skinny 5-foot-11, 183 pounds.

David Moore vs. D.K. Metcalf vs. Jaron Brown, SEA

Brian Schottenheimer clearly resents the forward pass, so the question of who gets targets after Tyler Lockett in Seattle might be moot. But the Seahawks did just trade away their best defender without a replacement, and the other three NFC West offenses could be quite good, so maybe Russell Wilson's pass attempt volume could spike upward a bit this year.

Even if not, the guy just threw 35 touchdowns last year, the third time in the last four years that he threw for at least 34. With no obvious target hog at tight end, it's almost necessarily true that one of Moore, Metcalf, or Brown will make a mainstream fantasy impact this year if Wilson continues to produce in line with his past standards. Doug Baldwin was a borderline WR1 when healthy in Seattle, and the same should be true of Lockett in 2019 with Baldwin gone. Lockett surpassed 10 fantasy points in standard scoring in eight of the 14 games where both he and Baldwin played last year, including playoffs, so a similar outcome should be within reach of a second receiver if they can pull away from the remaining competition.

Baldwin was the team's leading slot receiver, and even with Baldwin around Lockett played 510 of his 873 snaps in the slot last year. That means Lockett should see that split tilt even more heavily toward the slot, which leaves the outside spots as the easiest route to remaining playing time. Moore and Metcalf project best in this capacity, as Brown primarily played the slot last year (179 of 329 snaps).

Brown could make an impact if the Seahawks decide to use Lockett outside more than they did Baldwin, but the deficit between Lockett and Brown in the slot is probably bigger than the ones between Lockett versus Moore and Brown outside.

Marquise Goodwin vs. Deebo Samuel, SF

Dante Pettis appears set as one of the leading wide receivers for San Francisco, so the question for most is what happens between Goodwin and Samuel. Depending on where you look, you can find markets that favor either player over the other, but I'm generally shocked at how long Goodwin lasts in drafts. This is a guy with 4.2 speed who averaged over nine yards per target each of the last two years and is only two years removed from posting 962 yards on 105 targets (9.2 YPT).

Granted, Goodwin is a durability concern after missing time in five of his six NFL seasons, including a deep thigh bruise and injuries to both his calf and hamstring last year. But he's the best big-play threat in a generally coveted Kyle Shanahan offense, an offense that gets a lot easier to defend if Goodwin's speed is on the sideline.

Samuel is interesting as a second-round pick out of South Carolina, and he projects as a better underneath option than Goodwin thanks to his heavier build (5-foot-11, 214 pounds) and YAC-heavy skill set. But Samuel was injury prone himself at South Carolina, playing a full season just once in four years, and for whatever he does better than Goodwin, he can never match him as a downfield threat. Good as his production was at times at South Carolina, Samuel's age was always a bit advanced (he'll turn 24 in January), so he's far from some super-prospect, let alone one who conventionally projects as superior to 9.0+ YPT guy with Olympic sprinter speed.

The 49ers base offense should feature all three of Pettis, Goodwin, and Samuel at receiver, with George Kittle at tight end. Goodwin's downfield domain should be his own, while Samuel functions underneath and Pettis/Kittle split the intermediate.

Tight End

Charles Clay vs. Ricky Seals-Jones vs. Maxx Williams vs. Caleb Wilson, ARZ

It remains to be seen whether tight ends play a substantial role in the Kliff Kingsbury offense, or if the tight end snaps will lag relative to other teams in order to create more routes for receivers and running backs. If a healthy number of route-running snaps go to tight ends, then one of these guys could provide some sort of value. Clay and Seals-Jones are both downward-trending players but they're catch-first tight ends with decent athleticism to work with. Williams is a wildcard but one that should be kept in mind after four injury-prone years in Baltimore following a selection in the second round of the 2015 draft. Still just 25, Williams was a touchdown machine in college and is worth monitoring in case the first two falter in training camp. Wilson is a fast undersized tight end who produced at UCLA, but his status as Mr. Irrelevant makes him a long shot to make the team, let alone contribute for fantasy owners.

Jordan Thomas vs. Jordan Akins vs. Kahale Warring, HOU

Darren Fells might also make the team as a blocking and/or red-zone specialist, so this is a crowded tight ends room on an offense that already needs to make sure to accommodate its excellent wide receiver rotation. Fells does not project for many snaps, though, and not many targets on the snaps he does play. If any, the fantasy factors in this case will be one of the three players named above.

It's not to say he'll be the most heavily utilized, but Akins stands out from the other three Houston tight ends as a catch-first tight end at 6-foot-3, 249 pounds. A former minor league baseball prospect as a centerfielder, Akins has unique running ability among the Texans tight ends. The question of how good he actually is proves less clear, because even as a 26-year-old rookie his playing time fluctuated all year, and he had no breakout games despite an efficient season-long box score (68 percent catch rate, 9.0 YPT). His value as a catch-first tight end is also perhaps capped by the presence of Keke Coutee, who proved highly promising in the slot last year.

Thomas and Warring project better than Akins for in-line functions and therefore profile better for three-down roles. This also bodes well for their ability to stay on the field in the red zone – a major consideration given the number of touchdowns Deshaun Watson figures to throw. Warring (6-foot-5, 252 pounds) is athletic (4.67-second 40, 36.5-inch vertical, 122-inch broad jump) but inexperienced after only playing football for five years to this point. Despite his prospect pedigree as an athletic third-round pick, Thomas probably matches Warring's prospect profile even as a sixth-round pick last year. It will likely prove true to say that the NFL simply botched the evaluation on Thomas last year, as he's big, fast for his size, and enjoyed a productive rookie season even though he only turned 22 in August.

It's difficult to know Thomas' true weight – he was 6-foot-6, 265 pounds at the combine, but the Texans list him at 277 pounds. He in any case had lopsided workout metrics at the combine, posting a solid 4.74-second 40-yard dash but dreadful numbers in the jumps (27-inch vertical, 111-inch broad jump) and agility drills (12.2 agility score). Given his young age and the strength of his 40 time, I'm inclined to look at Thomas' brutal testing otherwise as mostly noisy, non-indicative tests that Thomas basically didn't prepare well for. He was in any case very productive for his age as a rookie, earning 470 snaps while turning 27 targets into 20 receptions for 215 yards and four touchdowns (74.1 percent catch rate, 8.0 YPT). Because of his strong rookie season and the possibility that he's more athletic than previously assumed, I would guess Thomas is the clear lead tight end on this offense since a prospect with Warring's profile traditionally needs some time to develop.

Jack Doyle vs. Eric Ebron, IND

It's difficult to convince the typical fantasy owner of this, but Doyle is better than Ebron. Ebron can do certain things that Doyle can't as far as running downfield – no one will mistake Doyle for a seam threat – but Ebron limits the application of this athletic advantage with poor hands, and he otherwise lags behind Doyle in all other more pertinent skill set considerations.

That's why when Doyle was healthy last year, he played ahead of Ebron. Ebron played 30 or more snaps in 11 games last year, but only twice in the six games Doyle played. Doyle played 77 snaps to Ebron's 37 in one of the cases, while the other was likely precipitated by the season-ending kidney laceration Doyle suffered in said game. Doyle's presence affords the Colts greater schematic versatility because he can block from a variety of looks whereas Ebron needs to be accommodated with functions more so resembling that of a wide receiver.

The problem for Ebron is that Devin Funchess and Parris Campbell are better at those wide receiver-like functions, and Doyle is back healthy from his hip and kidney injuries to block him at tight end. For the passing game functions specifically relating to the tight end position, Ebron can't match Doyle despite Ebron's athleticism advantage.

Indeed, Ebron's pass-catching efficiency is at a basement level while Doyle's is quite good. Over the past three years Doyle has turned 216 targets into 165 receptions for 1,519 yards and 11 touchdowns. The modest touchdown total and YPT average (7.0) highlight Doyle's limited playmaking ability, but 7.0 YPT at a 76.4 percent completion rate is a deal you make every time. Even in last year's 'breakout' season loaded with schematically-arranged wide open catches, Ebron only averaged 6.8 yards per target at a 60 percent catch rate. That's why Ebron played not only behind Doyle, but even Mo Alie-Cox and Ryan Hewitt at one point.

There's some role for Ebron in the Colts offense, but it must be understood that even in last year's breakout season Ebron was a below average tight end. Doyle's career-long comparison might only be that of a poor man's Jason Witten, but Ebron is the secondary player on this question.

Ben Watson vs. Matt LaCosse, NE

Watson is 38 years old and begins the year with a four-game suspension, so LaCosse has a nice head start in the race for production. The issue for LaCosse is that Watson might still have a bit left in the tank – enough to outplay a sub-replacement level talent like LaCosse, anyway. Both players might carry that undesirable distinction in 2019, but we know the Patriots will use tight ends and the options otherwise just don't exist in light of the release of Austin Seferian-Jenkins.

Watson was an uncommonly athletic tight end out of Georgia in 2004, so he's aged more gracefully than you might expect and as of last year still posed a threat as a receiver, turning 46 targets into 35 receptions for 400 yards and two touchdowns (74.5 percent catch rate, 8.7 YPT). It's also worth remembering that a 12-game workload is different from a 16-game one, and perhaps starting the season with a suspension will afford Watson the ability to burn hotter in the more manageable 12 remaining games.

Underwhelming as Watson might be, it's hard to imagine LaCosse as more than a placeholder. Signed out of Denver in free agency, LaCosse (6-foot-6, 257 pounds) is nondescript in almost every way, and in Denver he likely would have been the No. 4 tight end if all of Jake Butt, Troy Fumagalli, and Jeff Heuerman had stayed healthy. LaCosse's NFL production to this point is discouraging, as his 41 targets went for 27 receptions for 272 yards and one touchdown (65.9 percent catch rate, 6.6 YPT). To be fair, he's probably no worse than an average athlete (4.71-second 40).

Darren Waller vs. Foster Moreau vs. Luke Willson, OAK

The Oakland tight end rotation features two interesting upside prospects in Waller and Moreau, while Willson is a veteran who mostly just poses a progress-stopping presence as an athletic but modestly-skilled veteran. For fantasy purposes, it would be ideal if the younger two soak up snaps and push Willson to the margins.

While Moreau is toolsy in his own right (4.66 40, 36.5-inch vertical, 11.27 agility score), as a rookie he might struggle to adjust to the pro ranks initially. Waller has the advantage in that respect as a fourth-year player, and one with truly rare speed for a tight end. A wide receiver out of Georgia Tech, Waller has evidently bulked up a bit recently but ran a 4.46-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-6, 238 pounds during the 2015 combine. The Oakland offense figures to be pass-heavy yet the wide receiver depth chart is exceedingly thin behind Antonio Brown and Tyrell Williams. Given that he looks and runs like a receiver anyway, there's a chance there's significant slack for Waller to pick up in the passing game. If not him, then the same could be true of Moreau.