Exploiting the Matchups: Week 7 Start/Sit

Week 6 was almost comically favorable for the obvious matchups we've been exploiting all season. A tight end went for triple digits and a score against the Cardinals, a wide receiver single-handedly destroyed the Eagles, and a quarterback — one who also completes 65 percent of his passes for 7.7 yards per attempt — led the league in rushing yards against the Bengals.

We'll continue to pick on those same matchups as the season moves forward, but there are also some less obvious situations that warrant discussion, particularly when injuries, trades, suspensions or role changes impact a player's short-term context.

Before we get into specific players, here are some of my favorite tools for analyzing matchups and determining player valuations each week:

• Jeff Erickson's weekly rankings
• RotoWire's weekly projections
• Betting odds
• RotoWire's pages for advanced stats and TE route data.
• Pace stats and DVOA from Football Outsiders
• Next Gen Stats from NFL.com
• Player Grades and Premium Stats from Pro Football Focus
• Personnel Grouping Frequencies and Run:Pass Ratios from SharpFootballStats.com
• airyards.com
• Opponent and teammate injuries
• Target share
• Snap counts
• Defense vs. Position stats

Note: Discussion below mostly is limited to players that are being started in 10-to-90 percent of lineups on Yahoo. There are plenty of other players with good or bad matchups, but we'll focus our energy on the guys most likely to be involved in difficult lineup decisions.

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 QUARTERBACK

• Daniel Jones, NYG vs. ARZ

The Giants haven't run a single play with Jones, Saquon Barkley, Evan Engram, Sterling Shepard (concussion) and Golden Tate all on the field, and they've had just 19 snaps with four of the five together. Even if Shepard misses another week, this will arguably be the most talented offense the Giants have put on the field for an entire game since the days of Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks. (Yes, I'm familiar with Odell Beckham, and I'm also familiar with the impact of a washed-up Eli Manning.) 

The Cardinals are getting Patrick Peterson back from suspension, but no one player can fix a defense this broken. Arizona is 28th in net yards allowed per pass attempt (7.5) and 25th in pressure rate (20.6 percent), averaging 2.3 sacks per game despite blitzing at the third-highest rate (42.4 percent of dropbacks). The Giants have the third-largest implied total (26.75) of Week 7, benefiting from a soft defense as well as the possibility of extra volume against a team that leads the league in both unadjusted pace (24.01 seconds per play) and situation-neutral pace (27.32 seconds).

• Jared Goff, LAR at ATL

Atlanta's defense is the perfect remedy for a struggling quarterback behind a bad offensive line, with the Falcons ranking 31st in net yards per pass attempt (8.3), 21st in pressure rate (21 percent) and 31st in DVOA against the pass (51.0%). Those numbers actually understate the extent of the futility, as the Falcons have surrendered multiple passing touchdowns and at least 8.3 YPA in four consecutive games, including three TDs for Marcus Mariota and 310 yards for Jacoby Brissett. With safety Keanu Neal (Achilles) on injured reserve and top cornerback Desmond Trufant (toe) still unable to practice, there's no sign of impending improvement in Atlanta.

I do need to give Falcons coach Dan Quinn a bit of credit... for being one of the all-time great coat-tail riders in NFL history. Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas and Bobby Wagner got Quinn his job in Atlanta, where he then reached a Super Bowl thanks to Kyle Shanahan, Matt Ryan and Julio Jones. The next time Quinn coaches a defense that's more than the sum of its parts will be the first.

• Honorable Mentions: Kyler Murray, ARZ vs. NYG; Josh Allen, BUF vs. MIA; Gardner Minshew, JAX vs. CIN; Jimmy Garoppolo, SF at WAS

RUNNING BACK

• Royce Freeman, DEN vs. KC

Positive regression is the name of the game for Freeman, who is sitting on 66 carries, 21 catches, 429 scrimmage yards and zero touchdowns through six weeks. Phillip Lindsay's dominance of goal-line and short-yardage work has been a big part of that equation, but Lindsay can't keep Freeman out of the end zone all season. Thursday's matchup could prove fruitful for both players, with the Chiefs allowing a league-high 818 rushing yards to RBs, including a 100-yard performance on the ground each of the past four weeks. 

Sure, Lindsay is more valuable than Freeman, but the gap moving forward won't be as large as what we've seen so far. In addition to the likelihood of TD regression, Freeman has become Denver's preferred backfield option on pass plays, running more routes (73-to-47, per PFF) and drawing more targets (18-to-13) than Lindsay the past four weeks. The role distinction should favor Freeman if Patrick Mahomes comes storming out of the gate.

• Tevin Coleman, SF at WAS

While Coleman's status as the lead back may have temporarily been obscured by a huge MNF performance from Matt Breida, last week's game against the Rams left little doubt, with Coleman seeing 18 carries and three targets while playing 55 percent of snaps. Breida still had a big role with 13 carries, four targets and 36 percent snap share, but Kyle Shanahan remains hesitant to use his 195-pound speed demon near the end zone. Coleman handled four of the five carries inside the 5-yard line, and the fifth was a keeper by Jimmy Garoppolo.

Week 7 could see start-worthy production from both running backs, with the 49ers favored by 9.5 over a team that's given up the seventh-most fantasy points (21.6 per game) to the position while ranking 20th in DVOA against the run. The Redskins have been even more generous by PPR standards, giving up the fifth-most fantasy points (28.6) and second-most receptions (41). Breida should manage just fine in a secondary role, but Coleman is the guy we truly can count on.

• Frank Gore, BUF vs. MIA

Devin Singletary's return from a hamstring injury isn't ideal for Gore's fantasy value, but it will mostly be a concern when the Bills aren't favored by 17 points. The rookie has taken just 10 carries on 68 offensive snaps in two games, getting most of his work on passing plays, i.e., he poses a threat to T.J. Yeldon more so than Gore in the immediate future. Miami has yielded the second-most fantasy points (28.7) to running backs, including four 100-yard rushers in five games.

• Honorable Mentions: Joe Mixon, CIN vs. JAX; Derrick Henry, TEN vs. LAC; Singletary, BUF vs. MIA

WIDE RECEIVER

• D.J. Chark, JAX at CIN

Resurgent Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore got the best of Chark last week, putting a temporary damper on the second-year breakout nobody saw coming. Even so, the 23-year-old went over 40 yards for the sixth time in as many games, drawing seven targets in a contest where Gardner Minshew attempted just 29 passes. The Week 7 matchup won't necessarily induce extra volume, but it does set Chark up for a return to first-rate efficiency, after the Bengals lost both starting cornerbacks to injury last week. William Jackson III (shoulder) and Dre Kirkpatrick (knee) had been the relative strength of a pathetic defense, with their presence further encouraging opponents to pick on the Bengals' incompetent linebackers. Now, teams will have to choose between equally good options for attacking Cincinnati.

• Calvin Ridley, ATL vs. LAR

Right or wrong, Ridley seems to be shedding a reputation for inconsistency, with his per-game numbers looking similar to last season but spread out a bit more evenly. Whatever the case, we can say two things with confidence beyond a reasonable doubt: 1) He's efficient with his targets; 2) the Falcons throw a lot of passes. Both figure to hold true this week, with Atlanta as three-point underdogs against a team ranked No. 2 in pace and No. 20 in DVOA against the pass.

Jalen Ramsey should provide a nice boost for the Rams, but they still appear to be a cornerback short after trading away Marcus Peters and placing Aqib Talib (ribs) on injured reserve. With Mohamed Sanu primarily facing Nickell Robey-Coleman in the slot while Julio Jones potentially draws shadow coverage from Ramsey, the relative advantage falls to Ridley against Troy Hill. The Rams seem to be confident in Hill, but he was a major liability filling in for Talib last season, allowing 28 catches for 439 yards and five touchdowns (albeit with two interceptions) on 43 targets, per PFF. For his career, Hill has surrendered a 64.1 completion percentage and 8.8 YPT, with 11 TDs and two INTs.

• Michael Gallup, DAL vs. PHI

The Jets became the first team to shut down Gallup, though it's arguably a sign of how far he's come when seven targets and 48 yards qualifies as a major disappointment. The 23-year-old is nonetheless averaging nine targets and 96.8 yards per game, with the potential to see a few extra looks if Amari Cooper (quad) isn't ready by Sunday. The matchup, of course, is as good as it gets — the Eagles have allowed a league-high 33.2 fantasy points to wide receivers, fielding a run-funnel defense ranked 19th in DVOA against the pass and second in DVOA against the run. Stefon Diggs joined Davante Adams, Marvin Jones, Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley and Terry McLaurin on the list of 100-yard receivers versus Philadelphia this year (that's six in six games).

• Honorable Mentions: Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks, LAR at ATL; Larry Fitzgerald, ARZ at NYG; John Brown, BUF vs. MIA; Golden Tate and Sterling Shepard, NYG vs. ARZ; Marquez Valdes-Scantling, GB vs. OAK; DK Metcalf, SEA vs. BAL

TIGHT END

• Jimmy Graham, GB vs. OAK

Graham is the last man standing in an injury-plagued passing attack, and it couldn't have happened at a better time for fantasy owners to take advantage. Oakland has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points (9.7 per game) to tight ends, yielding 8.6 YPT and three touchdowns on 36 targets. The Raiders can't even blame the schedule for those stats, as they haven't faced a premium player at the position apart from Travis Kelce in Week 2. In terms of DVOA, which includes opponent adjustments, Oakland ranks 22nd at defending tight ends.

Editor's Note: Graham missed Wednesday's practice with an ankle injury.

• Mark Andrews, BAL at SEA

Landing between seven and nine targets each week this season, Andrews has a chance to go even higher in Week 7, with the Ravens playing as underdogs against a defense that's given up the fourth-most fantasy points (9.8 per game) to his position. The Seahawks are 25th in DVOA versus tight ends, yielding season-best performances to C.J. Uzomah (66 yards), Vance McDonald (two TDs) and Gerald Everett (135 yards). Andrews will be the best TE the Seahawks have faced this season, and he'll be the centerpiece of Baltimore's passing game with Marquise Brown (ankle) likely absent or playing at less than 100 percent.

• Honorable Mentions: Dawson Knox, BUF vs. MIA

KICKER 

• Aldrick Rosas, NYG vs. ARZ

Yet to attempt more than one field goal in a game this season, Rosas hasn't had the chance to build on his excellent 2018 campaign — 32 of 33 on FGs, 31 of 32 on PATs. Eli Manning was the limiting factor in the first two games of the season, while matchups with Minnesota and New England deprived Rosas of opportunities the past two weeks. With the Giants getting healthier and now facing a Cardinals defense that's been generous to every position, Rosas should finally get the busy day he's been waiting for.

Honorable mentions: Stephen Hauschka, BUF vs. MIA 

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QUARTERBACK

• Kirk Cousins, MIN at DET

After beating up on the Giants and the injury-plagued Eagles the past two weeks, Cousins is in serious danger of crash-landing back to reality. His previous matchups with good defenses — Chicago and Green Bay — yielded seven sacks, two interceptions, two lost fumbles and one passing touchdown, with the Vikings scoring 22 combined points and taking a pair of Ls. Things shouldn't get quite that ugly this Sunday, but it's certainly within the range of possibilities against a Lions defense ranked 11th in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.0) and 10th in DVOA against the pass. Detroit hasn't done much in terms of sacks (10) or interceptions (three), but that's to be expected when the early schedule brings Kyler Murray, Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz, Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers.

Not-so-Honorable Mentions: Philip Rivers, LAC at TEN; Sam Darnold, NYJ vs. NE; Derek Carr, OAK at GB; Mitchell Trubisky, CHI vs. NO; Teddy Bridgewater, NO at CHI

RUNNING BACK

• Melvin Gordon, LAC at TEN

Gordon bumped up to 60 percent snap share last week, but it was still below his 69 percent average from 2018, with only a three-touch advantage (11 to eight) over Austin Ekeler. Even if Gordon eventually regains his full role from last season, he'll have little-to-no chance of matching the efficiency, now playing behind a terrible offensive line. In addition to the big-picture concerns, Gordon draws a Week 7 matchup with a Tennessee defense that's given up the seventh-fewest fantasy points (15.9 per game) to running backs. The Chargers are two-point underdogs in a game with the second-smallest over/under (40.5) of the week, featuring two teams in the bottom 10 for both unadjusted pace and situation-neutral pace. Everything about the game screams UGLY.

• Sony Michel, NE at NYJ

In theory, Michel's role should give him excellent odds for start-worthy fantasy production whenever the Patriots are heavily favored. In practice, the Patriots have been favored by 5.5 or more points each week this season, and Michel already has three games with fewer than eight PPR points. That includes a matchup with the Jets in Week 3 — a game that saw the Pats attempt 45 passes despite jumping out to a 20-point lead at halftime (that's what happens when you have no ability to run the ball). 

Allowing just 3.6 YPC to running backs, the Jets defense has been surprisingly competent without the services of C.J. Mosley, who seems to have a shot at returning from a groin injury for Monday's game. Even if Mosley isn't back, the Jets limited Michel to a 9-11-1 rushing line in Week 3 with their top linebacker inactive. This isn't the same old Patriots offensive line of years past, and Michel has never shown much ability to pick up extra yards beyond what's blocked.

• Not-so-Honorable Mentions: Adrian Peterson, WAS vs. SF; David Montgomery, CHI vs. NO

WIDE RECEIVER

• Allen Robinson, CHI vs. NO

Averaging 6.2 catches for 75.4 yards with at least seven targets in every game this season, Robinson has earned every-week starter status in the majority of fantasy leagues that have 12 or more teams. Of course, he was only 52 percent started on Yahoo as of Thursday morning — perhaps a reflection of my personal belief that there's real merit to a Week 7 benching on teams that are stacked at wide receiver. 

The Saints defense rebounded from a slow start to beat up on Dak Prescott, Jameis Winston and Gardner Minshew the past three weeks, with top cornerback Marshon Lattimore erasing Amari Cooper (5-48-0), Mike Evans (goose egg) and D.J. Chark (3-43-0). Lattimore hasn't been consistent in playing up to his talent, but in any case, he isn't even the main problem for Robinson's outlook this week. The larger concern is what happens to Mitchell Trubisky against a nasty pass rush, with Marcus Davenport and Cameron Jordan combining for eight sacks and 22 quarterback hits for a defense that's pressured QBs on 33.2 percent of dropbacks (third best).

• Terry McLaurin, WAS vs. SF

McLaurin has quickly proven himself up to the task against nearly any cornerback in the NFL, but the same can't be said for Case Keenum when he's facing a tough defense. Sunday's matchup appears disastrous for the entire Washington offense, with San Francisco allowing 5.7 YPA and 4.1 YPC while ranking second in QB pressure rate (33.9 percent), third in sack rate (10.0) and second in INT rate (4.6). The 49ers actually lead the league in DVOA against the pass (-62.8%), slightly ahead of New England (-61.1%) on the basis of a not-quite-as-soft schedule. 

• Not-so-Honorable Mentions: Stefon Diggs, MIN at DET; Robby Anderson and Jamison Crowder, NYJ vs. NE; Tyrell Williams (foot), OAK at GB; Mike Williams, LAC at TEN; DeVante Parker and Preston Williams, LAC at TEN

TIGHT END

• T.J. Hockenson, DET vs. MIN

Hockenson showed signs of life with six targets in Monday's loss to Green Bay, but he wasn't able to do much with his chances and likely will fall victim to the same fate this week against the Vikings. Despite facing Zach Ertz, Darren Waller, Austin Hooper and Evan Engram so far this season, Minnesota has limited tight ends to 6.2 YPT, with nary a touchdown among a league-high 64 targets. The Vikings allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to the position last season (5.6 per game) and the fewest (4.9) in 2017. With Anthony Harris and Harrison Smith both holding top-10 PFF grades among safeties, there's no end in sight for Minnesota's dominance against tight ends. 

• Not-so-Honorable Mention: Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron, IND vs. HOU