Exploiting the Matchups: Week 15 Start/Sit & Fantasy Streamers

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Published on December 14, 2023

Every decision becomes magnified at this point in the fantasy football season, as Week 15 marks the beginning of the playoffs in a large chunk of leagues and is full of win-and-in regular-season matchups for leagues with four playoff teams. Even if you're lucky enough to have a bye this week or have already clinched a playoff spot with a week left in your regular season, you can still improve your team with a well-timed pickup of a player who can help contribute the following week. So, key opportunities created by injuries are still worth tracking.

A common theme this fantasy season has been the search for quality replacement options at QB, and some more fantasy teams that thought they were set at the position are now hopping aboard the QB carousel after Justin Herbert (finger) went on IR and Joshua Dobbs was benched. Fortunately, there's at least one helpful option available in the majority of leagues. Rookies offer another source of waiver-wire help, as a few young players are starting to take larger roles now that they have had most of a season to adjust to the NFL.

A key pickup can prove to be a championship-winning move, but teams good enough to make the playoffs often already have enough on their rosters to win, if they can deploy their talent correctly. Some of those decisions will be addressed below in the Start/Sit portion of this piece, as we try to pinpoint which players are worthy of elevating into the starting lineup and which ones could disappoint at a pivotal moment. Good luck to everyone looking to get into the fantasy playoffs or win a playoff game this week. Here are this week's start/sit suggestions and fantasy streamers:

Unless otherwise noted, references to "fantasy points" are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start percentage comes from Yahoo, as of Thursday morning.

Start/Upgrade 👍

Quarterback 👍

Jake Browning (vs. MIN) — 24% started

Start Over — Jared Goff (vs. DEN), Baker Mayfield (at GB), Kyler Murray (vs. SF)

Browning was shaky in his first start after Joe Burrow (wrist) was lost for the season, but the Bengals backup has bounced back since with two stellar performances, throwing for 629 yards and a 3:1 TD:INT while adding two rushing scores. He isn't a running QB per se, but Browning's willingness to call his own number near the goal line adds to his appeal, and he has proven adept at getting the ball to Cincinnati's playmakers, for which the Bengals aren't hurting. If your Plan A at QB got hurt recently, Browning's the most appealing option to fill in of the QBs who could still be hanging around the waiver wire.

Minnesota's defense has been sharp lately, but Browning's a far more accurate passer than Justin Fields or Aidan O'Connell, whom the Vikings successfully shut down in their previous two games. The Vikings blitz more than any team in the league, and Browning's accuracy has allowed him to thrive against the blitz, as he's thrown four touchdown passes in 24 dropbacks against the blitz while averaging 9.5 yards per attempt under pressure. Both Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are good options to throw jump balls to in single coverage, and they'll likely see a lot of it given the trademark aggressiveness of Vikings DC Brian Flores.

Other Good Matchups: Brock Purdy (at ARI), Matthew Stafford (vs. WAS), Jordan Love (vs. TB), Geno Smith/Drew Lock (vs. PHI)

Running Back 👍

Keaton Mitchell (at JAX) — 13% started

Start Over — Kenneth Walker (vs. PHI), Chuba Hubbard (vs. ATL), Devin Singletary (at TEN), Gus Edwards (at JAX)

The pecking order in the RB2 range is pretty obvious this week — I'd tell you to start Javonte Williams (72% started, at DET) over James Cook (69% started, vs. DAL) or Najee Harris (61% started, at IND), but their start percentages indicate that's already common knowledge. So, we'll dig a little deeper into the flex range to find some promising plays. Mitchell's averaging a whopping 8.5 yards per carry, and the speedy rookie tied his career high with nine carries in each of the last two games. Gus Edwards had just six carries in Baltimore's last game, so Mitchell has already become the team's top option on the ground. His ability in space makes Mitchell an enticing target out of the backfield, and the Jaguars have allowed the most receptions (91) and third-most receiving yards (628) to running backs.

Zamir White (vs. LAC) — 1% started

Start Over — Aaron Jones & AJ Dillon (vs. TB), Dameon Pierce (at TEN), Clyde Edwards-Helaire (at NE), D'Onta Foreman (at CLE)

Almost anyone in need of help at RB has a perfectly good option just waiting to be scooped up. If Josh Jacobs (quadriceps) suits up Thursday against the Chargers, then this is a wasted pick — honorable mention to Antonio Gibson (9% started, vs. LAR) as a strong play in deeper leagues — but the latest intel has Jacobs more likely than not to sit out. White operated as Vegas' top option on the ground while Jacobs held out in preseason, so the Raiders likely will give him the majority of touches over receiving backs Ameer Abdullah and Brandon Bolden against a Chargers defense that's allowed 1,792 scrimmage yards to RBs, which is seventh most in the NFL. The Chargers will be without both Justin Herbert (finger) and Keenan Allen (heel) for this game, so a negative game script is unlikely to develop for the Raiders, which should translate to plenty of rushing attempts for White.

Other Good Matchups: Bijan Robinson & Tyler Allgeier (vs. CAR), Rachaad White (at GB), D'Andre Swift (vs. SEA), Zack Moss (vs. PIT)

Wide Receiver 👍

Tyler Lockett (vs. PHI) — 57% started

Start Over — Jaylen Waddle (vs. NYJ), Calvin Ridley (vs. BAL), Amari Cooper (vs. CHI)

Lockett showed solid chemistry with Drew Lock last week, leading Seattle with 89 receiving yards in a 28-16 loss to San Francisco, so the veteran WR should be just fine regardless of Geno Smith's (groin) status against Philadelphia's generous secondary. The Eagles have allowed the most catches (206) and TDs (23) to WRs this season, as well as the second-most receiving yards (2,519) to the position. Philadelphia has been especially bad on defense lately, allowing at least 33 points to the Bills, 49ers and Cowboys the last three weeks. Lockett's perennially overlooked behind DK Metcalf, but the veteran WR is 289 yards from a fifth consecutive 1,000-yard season, and his 93 targets are tied with Metcalf for the team lead. Metcalf has 153 more yards and three more TDs, but Lockett has 14 more catches with 65, so the gap between them is much smaller than the gap between Lockett and No. 3 WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

Jayden Reed (vs. TB) — 29% started

Start Over — Drake London (at CAR), Adam Thielen (vs. ATL), Jordan Addison (at CIN)

Even in the unlikely scenario that Christian Watson (hamstring) plays, Reed is set to maintain a prominent role against Tampa Bay's vulnerable secondary. Reed has scored a touchdown in four of the last five games, getting in twice through the air and twice on the ground. He set career highs with eight receptions and four rushing attempts in Monday's loss to the Giants, and the rookie has at least as many touches as fellow Packers WR Romeo Doubs in each of the team's last nine games. Reed's role should continue to expand against a banged-up Tampa Bay secondary that wasn't good even when healthy. The Buccaneers have allowed 2,517 receiving yards to WRs — third most in the NFL.

Other Good Matchups: Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua & Demarcus Robinson (vs. WAS), Davante Adams & Jakobi Meyers (vs. LAC), Courtland Sutton & Jerry Jeudy (at DET), Chris Olave & Rashid Shaheed (vs. NYG), Zay Flowers & Odell Beckham (at JAX)

Tight End 👍

Logan Thomas (at LAR) — 10% started

Start Over — Kyle Pitts (at CAR), Pat Freiermuth (vs. IND), Cade Otton (at GB)

Like QB, TE is a position where you set and forget if you have one of the top options. For those streaming or employing a borderline starter, Thomas offers a clear upgrade over other available options in his range. The Rams have allowed the fourth-most yards to tight ends (809) and are tied with the Saints and Jets for the most TDs allowed to the position with seven. A tight end has posted at least 47 yards and scored against the Rams in four of L.A.'s last six games. Speaking of defenses that have been generous to TEs, make sure to check whether someone in your league dropped Darren Waller, as his 21-day window to return from IR was opened this week, and he's pushing to play Sunday against the Saints.

Other Good Matchups: Sam LaPorta (vs. DEN), Isaiah Likely (at JAX), Chigoziem Okonkwo (vs. HOU)

Sit/Downgrade 👎

Quarterback 👎

Tua Tagovailoa (vs. NYJ) — 67% started

Start Instead — Brock Purdy (at ARI), Matthew Stafford (vs. WAS), Jordan Love (vs. TB)

Tagovailoa looked terrible as soon as Tyreek Hill (ankle) left the field in Monday's loss to the Titans. The Dolphins scored 27 points, but seven came on a defensive TD and another 14 came on short Raheem Mostert runs after fumble recoveries deep in Titans territory, while Tua was held without a TD. Even if Hill ends up playing Sunday, Tua will have his work cut out for him against a Jets defense that has allowed just three TDs to WRs all season. When these AFC East rivals met in Week 12, Tagovailoa had 243 yards and a 1:2 TD:INT.

Other Tough Matchups: Justin Fields (at CLE), Jared Goff (vs. DEN), Trevor Lawrence (vs. BAL)

Running Back 👎

Kenneth Walker (vs. PHI) — 51% started

Start Instead — Zack Moss (vs. PIT), Ezekiel Elliott (vs. KC), Devin Singletary (at TEN)

Walker returned from a two-game absence due to an oblique injury last week against the 49ers and proceeded to be soundly outproduced on the ground by Zach Charbonnet, who rushed nine times for 44 yards compared to Walker's eight carries for 21 yards. Not only is Walker potentially playing at less than 100 percent health and splitting carries, he also draws a brutal matchup this week. The Eagles have had a tough time defending the pass, but Philadelphia's front remains stout, as Philadelphia's 904 rushing yards and four rushing TDs allowed to RBs are both among the NFL's five stingiest marks.

James Conner (vs. SF) — 32% started

Start Instead — Chuba Hubbard (vs. ATL), Clyde Edwards-Helaire (at NE), Keaton Mitchell (at JAX)

I'm generally a big Conner fan, as he faces little competition for touches and is an excellent short-yardage back when healthy, but this simply isn't the time to deploy him. The Cardinals are two-touchdown underdogs, so they figure to fall behind and be forced to pass. When Conner does get opportunities on the ground, he'll face a 49ers defense that has allowed a league-low 743 rushing yards to RBs. Conner has been a non-factor in the passing game, with just 36 receiving yards all season, and he's unlikely to do much better than the 52 rushing yards he mustered against the 49ers back in Week 4.

Other Tough Matchups: Joe Mixon & Chase Brown (vs. MIN), James Cook (vs. DAL), Ezekiel Elliott (vs. KC), Aaron Jones & AJ Dillon (vs. TB), D'Onta Foreman, Khalil Herbert & Roschon Johnson (at CLE)

Wide Receiver 👎

D.J. Moore (at CLE)

Start Instead — Puka Nacua (vs. WAS), Garrett Wilson (at MIA), Courtland Sutton (at DET)

Moore's ankle injury isn't an issue, as all his receiving production last week came after he got hurt, but Moore will have his work cut out for him against Cleveland's stingy secondary, even without limitations. Even without standout CB Denzel Ward (shoulder) the last three weeks, the Browns have continued to defend WRs well, as only the Jets have given up fewer yards to the position than Cleveland's 1,620. This defense operates at a different level at home, as the Browns allow just 12.6 PPG in Cleveland compared to 30.7 PPG on the road.

Drake London (at CAR) — 49% started

Start Instead — Zay Flowers & Odell Beckham (at JAX), Terry McLaurin (at LAR), Zay Jones (vs. BAL)

London has thrived in good matchups but struggled against stingy secondaries. Carolina falls into the latter category, with the fourth-fewest yards allowed to WRs (1,691). London went without a catch in the first meeting between these teams, and he was held to one catch for eight yards by the Jets two weeks ago, as QB Desmond Ridder isn't good enough to get the ball to London on the outside against good defenses. Fortunately for the Falcons, their run-heavy offense should thrive against a 1-12 Panthers team that has allowed the most TDs in the league to RBs, so there won't be much reason to push the ball downfield to London.

Other Tough Matchups: Tyreek Hill & Jaylen Waddle (vs. NYJ), Stefon Diggs & Gabe Davis (vs. DAL), Adam Thielen (vs. ATL), Wan'Dale Robinson, Calvin Ridley, Zay Jones & Parker Washington (vs. BAL), Jalin Hyatt & Darius Slayton (at NO)

Tight End 👎

Kyle Pitts (at CAR) — 54% started

Start Instead — Isaiah Likely (at JAX), Dalton Kincaid (vs. DAL), Chigoziem Okonkwo (vs. HOU)

Carolina's strong pass defense doesn't just apply to wide receivers. Only the Browns have allowed fewer catches and yards to tight ends than the Panthers, who have limited the position to 46 catches and 456 yards. Pitts scored his second TD of the season last week against the Buccaneers and also notched his fourth 50-yard performance of the season, but he's likely to regress here. In the first meeting between these NFC Suth rivals, Pitts tied a season low with two catches.