Backfield Breakdown: RB Usage Report and Week 7 Waivers Preview

Week 6 was another tough one for injuries, and even more so for running backs this time around. It'll be an interest week for waivers, to say the least, especially because we have some situations in which the injured starter might end up playing or it isn't exactly clear which backup will get the most work if he doesn't.

Week 6 RB Snap Share Leaders

1. Tony Pollard - 85%
2. Chuba Hubbard - 83%
3. Kyren Williams (ankle) - 82%
4. Josh Jacobs - 82%
5. Travis Etienne - 81%
6. Rachaad White - 80%
7. Alvin Kamara - 80%
8. Saquon Barkley - 80%
9. Alexander Mattison - 78%
10. Bijan Robinson - 77%
11. Kenneth Walker - 76%
12. Joe Mixon - 73%
13. Austin Ekeler - 71%
14. Breece Hall - 68%
15. Rhamondre Stevenson - 66%

Injury Report 🚑

New Injuries

Christian McCaffrey (oblique / TBD)

David Montgomery (ribs / week-to-week)

Kyren Williams (ankle / week-to-week)

Ronnie Rivers (knee / out 4-5 weeks)

Samaje Perine (leg / TBD)

Damien Harris (neck / week-to-week)

Missed Week 6

Jahmyr Gibbs (hamstring / day-to-day)

Miles Sanders (shoulder / week-to-week)

Roschon Johnson (concussion / day-to-day)

Travis Homer (hamstring / week-to-week)

Khalil Herbert (ankle / IR)

De'Von Achane (knee / IR)

Jeff Wilson (ribs / IR-R)

Jamaal Williams (hamstring / IR)

James Conner (knee / IR)

Stock Report 📊

Trending Up 📈

Kenneth Walker - 76% snaps / 47% Rts / 22 touches

 Breece Hall - 68% snaps / 61% Rts / 17 of 23 RB touches (74%)

 Raheem Mostert - 20 touches / 3 TDs / 74% of first-half snaps

Gus Edwards - 61% snaps, 17 touches

Devin Singletary - 52% snaps, 13 touches

 Kareem Hunt - 37% snaps, 15 touches, TD

 Chuba Hubbard - 83% snaps, 20 touches (Sanders out)

 Craig Reynolds - 61% snaps / 57% routes / 12 touches

 Zach Evans / Royce Freeman - Last Men Standing

 Latavius Murray - 48% snaps / 33% Rts / 12 touches

Jordan Mason - 27% snaps, five touches, TD

 Devine Ozigbo - 9% snaps, four touches

Trending Down 📉

Javonte Williams - 35% snaps, 10 touches 

Dameon Pierce - 35% snaps, 13 touches

 Jerome Ford - 51% snaps / 33% Rts / 19 touches

Zack Moss - 49% snaps, 13 touches, TD

Cam Akers - 16% snaps, two touches

 Emari Demercado - 45% snaps / 56% Rts / 3 touches

Unsettled Backfields 🎲

These are the backfields that need to be monitored closely, where role changes could be imminent or we aren't sure about the team's intentions. 

Messy Backfields

1. Arizona Cardinals
2. Denver Broncos
3. Chicago Bears
4. Baltimore Ravens
5. Houston Texans

I'm not even including teams like the Rams and Lions here, because it probably just comes down to who is healthy enough to play. We could see someone like Zach Evans or Craig Reynolds getting 50 snaps and 20 touches this week. It sounds like Jahmyr Gibbs (hamstring) is more likely to play than Kyren Williams (ankle), which points me toward Evans as a waiver addition even with the possibility/likelihood of Royce Freeman being called up from the practice squad for some kind of role.

• Keaontay Ingram got half of Arizona's RB opportunities but only 36% of the snaps in Sunday's loss to the Rams. Emari Demercado, the popular waiver add, technically played the most snaps (46%) but got only two carries and one target (24 routes). Damien Williams had three times as many touches as Demercado on 16% of snaps. Nobody can be started with any confidence Week 7 at Seattle, though Ingram and Demercado are worth keeping on benches in case one or the other emerges in James Conner's absence (min. three more games)
• Jaleel McLaughlin started for Denver in Javonte Williams' first game back after missing a week with a hip injury. They essentially split early down snaps 50/50, with Samaje Perine getting some playing time in clear passing situations (and also suffering an injury late in the game). McLaughlin took nine touches for 42 yards; Williams took 10 for 52. I'd rather start either than one of the Arizona guys
• D'Onta Foreman took 60% of snaps and 16 of the 26 RB touches for Chicago in a loss to Minnesota on Monday, with the remainder going to Darrynton Evans. But it'll look quite different this Sunday against the Raiders if Roschon Johnson passes through concussion protocol. Johnson was the No. 2 RB in Weeks 2-5 and got more than one-third of the touches in that stretch while coming off the bench behind Khalil Herbert (who may be out beyond the four-game IR minimum with a high-ankle sprain).
• Gus Edwards handled his second largest snap share (61%) of the season in a win over the Titans in London, taking 17 touches for 53 yards. Justice Hill got 39% of snaps and 11 touches for 35 yards. This one varies a bit week-to-week but has never gone too far in the direction of one guy over the other when both are healthy. Keaton Mitchell was activated from IR before the London game but didn't play on offense; he's still worth stashing in deeper leagues.
• Devin Singletary got more playing time (52% snaps) than Dameon Pierce (35%) for the first time this year, though Pierce had the same number of touches (13). With Mike Boone chipping in for 17% snap share as the hurry-up/LDD back, it's quite the crowded backfield. TBD if Singletary pushes Pierce for the lead role or if this was just a one-week thing. Pierce's struggles can no longer solely be blamed on O-line injuries, as the Texans have gotten healthier. They've got a Week 7 bye, and presumably one of the focuses will be establishing a run game to go with the surprisingly competent passing attack.

On the Brink

1. Carolina Panthers
2. Buffalo Bills
3. Cleveland Browns

• Chuba Hubbard has been better than Miles Sanders (shoulder) this year and took on 83% of snaps this past Sunday in Miami en route to a 19-88-1 rushing line. Hubbard drew only one target but ran 24 routes (57% share). The Panthers have a Week 7 bye; I think Sanders will still be the starter if he's back Week 8, but I'm not sure of it.
• James Cook bounced back somewhat against the Giants after a brutal game the week prior, but he barely played more snaps (51%) than Latavius Murray (48%). There's a bit more upside for Murray now, with Damien Harris (head/neck) likely to miss time.
• Jerome Ford was still the lead ballcarrier in Sunday's win over San Francisco, but Kareem Hunt handled short-yardage and took on his largest snap share (37%) and touch count (15) so far, also scoring a 16-yard TD (on a 3rd-and-1, FWIW). 

Waivers Look-Ahead ±

If you're looking for a more comprehensive waivers article, RW's Kevin Payne has you covered. Here we're just taking a quick look at some RBs to target based on the work contained in this article and Monday's Box Score Breakdown. In order to qualify, the RB needs to be rostered in no more than half of Yahoo leagues.

Potential Short-Term Starters

Zach Evans - 2%

Craig Reynolds -  

Elijah Mitchell - 28%

Jordan Mason - 7%

Justice Hill - 42%

Kareem Hunt - 37%

Rams PS Royce Freeman - 0%

Keaontay Ingram - 20%

Latavius Murray - 14%

• I'm writing this Tuesday morning, at which point I like Zach Evans over the other options by a hair because of Sean McVay's preference for shallow rotations and large snap shares. But I don't say this with much confidence, and it's a tough call in particular for those with waiver runs Tuesday rather than Wednesday. 
  • Reynolds, Mitchell, Mason and Freeman also are candidates to handle lead roles for the first time this season in the aftermath of their backfield mates suffering injuries Week 6. A lot here depends on news/updates for Christian McCaffrey (oblique) and Jahmyr Gibbs (hamstring). Both seem to have a shot to play as of Tuesday morning, whereas the Rams' top two RBs are more toward doubtful/out already. 
    • BTW, if you have start/sit questions involving any of these guys, there's probably no point asking before Friday evening or Saturday. I'm looking at the same tweets and player notes as everyone else.

Bench Stashes

Zach Charbonnet - 50%

Tyjae Spears - 47% (bye)

Devin Singletary - 13% (bye)

Ezekiel Elliott - 43% 

Jamaal Williams - 39% (IR)

Tank Bigsby - 17%

Keaton Mitchell - 18%

Salvon Ahmed - 20%

Rico Dowdle - 7% (bye)

 Zamir White - 3%

Drop Candidates

Cam Akers - 65% (shallow leagues)

Dalvin Cook - 54%

Jerick McKinnon - 44%

Samaje Perine - 38%

Joshua Kelley - 28%

Damien Harris - 22%

Matt Breida - 15%

Rashaad Penny - 13%

2023 Playing Time & Alignment Stats 🏈

• Run Rate = Percentage of player's snaps that were run plays
• R Sn. = # of rush attempts player was on the field for
• P Sn. = # of pass snaps player was on the field for
• 3D Sn. = # of snaps played on 3rd Downs with 3+ yards to go
• 3D% = Percentage of team snaps played on 3rd Downs with 3+ yards to go 
• SAT = satellite rate = percentage of player's snaps taken in the slot or out wide

Note: I'm now showing snaps per game, rather than adjusting snap shares to account for games missed. It's simply too cumbersome at this point with so many RBs having missed time.

2023 Rushing Stats 🏃‍♀️

• Carr Sh = Percentage of team rush attempts taken by the player (in his active games)
• BT = Broken Tackles
• BT/T = Broken Tackles per Touch (FYI: lower number = better)
• YPC = Yards Per Carry
• YBC = Yards Before Contact (per carry)
• YAC = Yards After Contact (per carry)

Note: I'm now showing rushes per game, rather than adjusting rush shares to account for games missed. It's simply too cumbersome at this point with so many RBs having missed time.

2023 Receiving Stats 🤲

• RTs = Routes Run 
• TPRR = # Targets / # Routes Run
• Rts/Gm = # Routes Run / # Games Played
• Pa Sn = Snaps played on QB dropbacks (pass attempt or sack)
• RT/PS = Routes / Pass Snaps (inverse of pass-blocking rate)
• Tgt Sh = # Targets / # Team Targets

2023 Red-Zone Report 🛬

Inside The 5 (IT5)

• Snap% = Percentage of team snaps that went to the player
• Carr Sh = Percentage of team carries that went to the player
• Tgt Sh = Percentage of team targets that went to the player