2019 Football Draft Kit: Breakout Players

Some use the term "breakout," while others prefer "sleeper" or simply "undervalued." Whatever the terminology, we're all looking for the same thing: players who will establish a new level of fantasy value, surpassing both their previous production and their 2019 draft/auction cost.

The second part is where things get tricky, as the proliferation of fantasy football content makes it easier and easier each year to stay informed without a major time commitment. Come draft day, even the chump in your league might be ready to use a top-50 pick on Chris Godwin or D.J. Moore — this probably wouldn't have been the case 10 year ago.

A "buzzy" player's average draft position (ADP) might even reach a point that implies his breakout is a sure bet, but most of the time this isn't true. There is generally some level of hesitation to draft the next big thing over a proven commodity, even when the former comes with a much higher ceiling than the latter. Look no further than George Kittle or Marlon Mack for recent examples from 2018. Both had plenty of hype last summer — including in this very space — yet still managed to provide an excellent return on investment for their owners. As great as it feels to find breakout candidates flying under the radar, if they aren't getting much attention from the fantasy community it's usually because the upside scenario is a low-probability proposition.

Pulling a late-round rabbit out of the hat is far more difficult than simply being the fantasy owner with enough confidence to pull the trigger on drafting a young player everyone is buzzing about. Whether we're discussing a second-round pick or a 12th-round flier, every player listed below represents good value based on his ADP in mid-summer. Some of these guys might gain steam in late summer and become more accurately valued, but they all have enough upside to warrant drafting even if that happens. Rookies aren't included below, as they lack an established level of value/production to be surpassed for a true breakout.  

WORTH THE HYPE … AND THEN SOME 

Baker Mayfield, QB, Browns

The best argument against Mayfield's 2019 breakout is the contention it already happened in the second half of 2018. The No. 1 overall pick averaged 271 passing yards and 2.1 touchdowns in 13 rookie-year starts, bumping up to 282 and 2.4 over his final eight games after Gregg Williams and Freddie Kitchens replaced the Hue Jackson/Todd Haley comedy show. 

Cleveland closed the season winning five of those eight games, with Mayfield completing 68.4 percent of his passes for 8.6 yards per attempt. He still struggled with interceptions when he faced tough defenses, but he was thoroughly surgical against softer competition, and he nearly led a Week 17 road comeback in Baltimore to keep the Ravens and their elite pass defense (6.3 YPA) out of the playoffs. 

Already a reliable fantasy starter in the second half of his rookie campaign, Mayfield is poised to join the elite group at quarterback now that the situation around him has morphed from terrible to tolerable to excellent. A full offseason working with Kitchens and new offensive coordinator Todd Monken is a nice place to start, and you might have heard that the Browns traded for a pretty good wide receiver. 

The addition of Odell Beckham Jr. is especially valuable given the context of Cleveland's 2018 offense, in which Jarvis Landry produced 6.6 yards per target and a career-low 54.4 percent catch rate on 149 chances. Landry's 10.9 average depth of target (aDOT) was much higher than in any of his four seasons with Miami, as the Browns unsuccessfully tried to use him deeper downfield. 

The team also sent 79 targets and 766 snaps to rookie wideout Antonio Callaway, who struggled to handle steady volume under Jackson and Haley before improving in the second half of the season. Callaway stumbled to just 236 receiving yards on 45 targets (5.2 YPT) through eight weeks, then went for 350 yards on 34 targets (10.3 YPT) once Kitchens took the reins. 

In addition to providing a deep threat for a quarterback who ranked fifth among qualified passers in aDOT (9.4) last season, Beckham will help reduce the burden on Landry, Callaway and Rashard Higgins, allowing each wide receiver to focus on what he does best. Add tight end David Njoku — a strong breakout candidate in his own right — along with a backfield featuring Nick Chubb, Duke Johnson and (eventually) Kareem Hunt, and Cleveland can make a decent argument for having the best group of skill-position players in the league. 

The Browns did lose guard Kevin Zeitler in the trade for Beckham, but they bring back all their other starters on an offensive line that helped Mayfield post the seventh-lowest sack rate (4.9) in the league. The young quarterback's ability to avoid negative plays is another source of encouragement, as his 2.9 percent interception rate was actually quite good by the standards of a debut campaign, ranking 25th overall but No. 1 among five qualified rookie passers.  

The one thing Mayfield didn't do was provide many fantasy points on the ground, but his track record from college — 21 rushing touchdowns in 48 games — hints at some level of potential in that regard. Given what we saw in November and December, the path to a top-3 QB season in 2019 may be as simple as Beckham staying relatively healthy while Mayfield sprinkles in the occasional rushing score.  

Dalvin Cook, RB, Vikings 

The injury-prone label is difficult to shed once it's acquired, with frustrated fantasy owners overestimating the correlation between past medical problems and future ones. The ability to profit off this miscalculation isn't a matter of accepting risk so much as recognizing when a player is undervalued because the competition is overestimating that risk. 

Cook's second-round ADP this summer is a perfect example. Few question his potential to become a first-round asset, but his ADP reflects the perception of heightened injury risk compared to second-tier running backs typically drafted before him; e.g. Melvin Gordon, James Conner and Joe Mixon. 

Cook's injury-prone label tracks back to a single snap from Week 4 of his rookie season when he tore an ACL while trying to juke a defender. It's no surprise he also missed five games last year, returning 11 months after he suffered the severe knee injury. Young players typically are able to regain peak form after ACL tears, but it doesn't necessarily happen the very next season, as a long layoff from physical activity often leads to problems with other parts of the body. 

Consider that Cook entered the NFL just two years ago with high marks for durability, after playing 38 of 40 possible games at Florida State despite averaging 18.1 carries and 2.1 catches per contest en route to three straight 1,000-yard rushing seasons. He played all 13 games his final year, taking 288 carries for 1,765 yards and 33 receptions for 488 yards (with 20 total touchdowns). 

Cook was efficient with his touches the last two years, averaging 4.7 yards per carry and 7.7 yards per reception in an offense that saw Latavius Murray produce 4.0 YPC and 6.6 YPR during the same stretch. The Vikings didn't sign a replacement after Murray left for New Orleans this offseason, and they waited until pick No. 102 to draft Alexander Mattison, who ran a 4.67 40-yard dash on the heels of a junior campaign at Boise State with just 4.7 YPC and 6.4 YPR. 

The sketchy backup situation hints at a high level of confidence in Cook, who already has shown three-down potential with 51 catches on 65 targets (78.5 percent) in 15 games. He's also proven quite difficult to tackle, ranking ninth among 49 qualified rushers last season in broken tackle rate (one for every 6.7 carries) and 14th in average yards after contact (2.8). And while drops have been an issue, Cook made up for it in 2018 by ranking fifth in yards after catch per reception (10.0), trailing only Gordon, Todd Gurley, Austin Ekeler and Conner (min. 30 catches). 

There's even some hope Cook won't need to make things happen on his own this year, as the Vikings signed guard Josh Kline to a three-year, $15.5 million contract and then used a first-round pick on center Garrett Bradbury. The offensive line still won't be the strength of the team, but it should at least be a league-average unit for the first time since 2015. With the backing of a good defense to keep games competitive, we don't need to squint to see Cook's path to 250-plus carries and 50-plus receptions.   

O.J. Howard, TE, Buccaneers 

Howard will land on this type of list for nearly every website and publication, making a push to regularly be the next tight end drafted once Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz and George Kittle are off the board. Many fantasy owners will wait on the position if they miss out on the Big 3, and while this generally seems like a prudent approach, Howard is the guy for whom it's worth deviating. 

It would be an understatement to say Howard has shown flashes of brilliance since Tampa Bay took him 19th overall in the 2017 draft. He's posted back-to-back seasons with 16.6 yards per catch and more than 11 yards per target, somehow converting 87 passes into 60 catches for 997 yards and 11 TDs. 

Howard was criminally underused his rookie season with 39 targets in 14 games, but the Buccaneers started to get the picture last year and increased his volume to 48 looks in 10 appearances. Thanks to his monstrous efficiency, it was enough work for Howard to land fifth among TEs in per-game standard scoring (8.7) and sixth in PPR (12.1). 

His magic formula included the league's third-highest aDOT (11.1) among tight ends with at least 25 catches, backed by the fifth-highest YAC per reception (6.7). Howard's rare combination of seam-stretching and run-after-catch skill shouldn't come as too much of a surprise, considering his times in the 40-yard dash (4.51 seconds), three-cone drill (6.85) and short shuttle (4.16) each place top 3 among TEs from the last five scouting combines. 

Given his draft status, age (24), athleticism and 2017-18 production, a volume increase likely would be coming this year even if the Buccaneers hadn't lost both Adam Humphries (105 targets) and DeSean Jackson (74) during the offseason. Depth wide receivers Breshad Perriman, Justin Watson and Scott Miller won't be filling the 179-target gap, nor will running backs Peyton Barber and Ronald Jones. 

Team context strongly works in favor of overall passing volume, as the Bucs didn't make any real effort to upgrade their backfield — unless you count 30-year-old Andre Ellington — and didn't have enough cap space to properly address a persistently terrible defense. They're headed for a third consecutive season of 600-plus pass attempts, entering summer with an over/under of either 6.0 or 6.5 wins at sportsbooks. 

The low expectations are partially an indictment of Jameis Winston, who for all his flaws has at least proven capable of supporting fantasy production for his pass catchers. In addition to his aggressive approach throwing downfield, the 25-year-old quarterback has shown a love for tight ends near the goal line, tossing 34 of his 88 career touchdown passes (38.6 percent) to the position. 

Cameron Brate has accounted for 20 of those, but he won't be too much of a threat to Howard if the Bucs make the obvious choice to unleash their young stud as an every-down force in the same way Kelce, Kittle and Ertz are used by their teams. Given his competence as a blocker and physical dominance at 6-foot-6, 251, there's really no reason to take Howard off the field for more than an occasional breather when he's healthy. 

The last point seems to be a bigger concern than either per-game volume or efficiency, after Howard finished his first two NFL seasons on IR with injuries to his right foot/ankle. This is another case where it seems a bit early to apply the injury-prone label, considering the tight end stayed healthy his final three years at Alabama and bounced back from a Week 4 knee sprain last season without missing any games. 

In any case, the suboptimal medical record already appears baked into Howard's price; we'd be discussing him as a top-50 pick if not for the November injury that spoiled his mini-breakout last year.   

MID-ROUND MAGIC

Rashaad Penny, RB, Seahawks 

Penny's merit as a first-round pick is questionable, but whatever regrets the Seahawks might have won't stand between the 23-year-old and an increased role in his second season. The team allowed fellow running back Mike Davis to leave for Chicago, taking 112 carries, 42 targets and 391 snaps (38.6 percent) out the door from an offense that led the NFL in run-play rate (52.4 percent). 

The run-heavy approach is another source of controversy on top of using a first-round pick on a RB, but it's clear the team has a vision for its offense under coordinator Brian Schottenheimer. Seattle saw Penny as a big part of that vision after drafting him 27th overall, only to be left disappointed when he started preseason 16 pounds over his combine weight (220) and then broke a finger. 

Penny made it back for Week 1 but started slowly, finally gaining his footing Week 4 when lead runner Chris Carson was unavailable. The rookie averaged 5.8 yards on 65 carries from that point, including four gains of 20-plus yards and another five in the 15-19 range. Penny remained vulnerable to negative plays, but he balanced it out with the explosiveness his 4.46 40-yard dash had hinted at (not to mention a 2,000-yard senior season at San Diego State). 

Despite the similarities in height and weight, Penny is a much different player than Carson, a one-dimensional bruiser who relies on breaking through would-be tacklers rather than eluding them. The third-year pro was held out of spring practices to recover from an unspecified procedure on his knee, while Penny received praise from coach Pete Carroll for showing up in much better shape after a productive offseason. 

Carson has been too good to simply disappear from the gameplan, but he might end up in a 50-50 timeshare, especially if Penny shows enough pass-catching improvement to beat out J.D. McKissic, C.J. Prosise and Travis Homer for the third-down snaps Davis handled last year. The difference of splitting work between two players instead of three would be significant, as the combined production from Davis and Penny in 2018 amounted to 197 carries, 43 catches, 1,222 scrimmage yards and seven TDs. 

The ultimate upside scenario involves Carson missing extended time with an injury or being reduced to a secondary role, but that doesn't necessarily need to happen for Penny to achieve RB2 status. The Saints and Patriots provide recent examples of how an efficient offense can produce multiple running backs deserving of regular spots in fantasy lineups.  

Dede Westbrook, WR, Jaguars

It isn't difficult to find a breakout candidate at wide receiver in the middle rounds this summer. We easily could've used this space on Anthony Miller, Keke Coutee, Christian Kirk or Curtis Samuel, and there's even a reasonable argument for the likes of Geronimo Allison or James Washington. 

So why Westbrook? First and foremost, he's the favorite to lead Jacksonville in targets, while each of the aforementioned receivers is no higher than second or third on the totem pole for his team. In fact, Westbrook already pulled the trick last season, drawing a team-high 101 looks in a hideous offense quarterbacked by Blake Bortles and Cody Kessler. 

Only 26 wide receivers saw more targets as Westbrook finished 33rd at his position in PPR scoring and 31st in standard scoring. That's already low-end WR3 production in his second NFL season, after producing at a slightly lesser level (3.9 catches for 48.4 yards per game) across seven games as a rookie. 

The 2017 fourth-round pick missed the first nine weeks of his rookie season with a sports hernia, but he's looked like he belongs ever since he first stepped foot on an NFL field. Perhaps that shouldn't come as any surprise, considering he had 1,524 receiving yards and 17 touchdowns his senior year at Oklahoma and ran a 4.34 40-yard dash at his pro day. 

Westbrook hasn't always been able to put that speed to use downfield as a slot receiver for Jacksonville, but he did supplement his 2018 receiving stats with nine carries for 98 yards, and his 5.6 YAC per reception placed 10th of 46 wide receivers with at least 50 catches. His role on punt returns (14-yard average, one TD in 2018) increases injury risk, yet also illustrates just how dangerous he is with the ball in his hands. 

The Jaguars now will be able to make better use of that skill set with Nick Foles replacing the Bortles/Kessler disaster. The 30-year-old quarterback showed a strong preference for short passes last season, ranking 40th in aDOT (6.9) among 41 QBs with 100 or more attempts (only Kessler was lower at 6.2).  

Foles completed 72.3 percent of his throws, while Jacksonville passers managed just 61.4 percent. In terms of actual completion percentage compared to expected completion percentage based on NFL's NextGen stats, Foles finished second (+5.7) to only Drew Brees (+7.4), while Bortles (-6.9) was ahead of only C.J. Beathard (-7.8). 

Eagles slot receiver Nelson Agholor produced each of his four touchdowns and his only 100-yard game last season in Foles' five starts — an encouraging sign for the slot-based Westbrook. In some circumstances we'd worry about snap volume for a receiver who rarely lines up outside, but it shouldn't be much of an issue on a team with no true fullback on its roster and Geoff Swaim and rookie Josh Oliver atop the depth chart at tight end. 

Westbrook has never logged fewer than 31 offensive snaps in a game, handling a 77.5 percent share across 23 regular-season appearances. The Jaguars had three or more wide receivers on the field for 83.5 percent of their pass plays last season and 79.5 percent the year before. There's also a chance Westbrook gets more run in two-receiver sets, as the competition for playing time consists of five players — Marqise Lee, Keelan Cole, D.J. Chark, Chris Conley  and Terrelle Pryor — who combined for 100 catches in 2018. 

Westbrook's draft/auction cost is commensurate with the high-end bench production he's already displayed, without accounting for the WR2 upside if he continues to grow alongside Foles. Other wideouts in the same range offer a similar upside scenario, but only Westbrook has the proven level of production to make good on his acquisition cost even if the breakout doesn't come to fruition.  

Vance McDonald, TE, Steelers 

McDonald is the veteran of this list and also the one player who can be labeled as injury-prone beyond reasonable doubt. The 2013 second-round pick has missed at least one game every season, averaging 12.2 appearances in six years. 

That's the bad news. The good news is he's been consistently efficient with his receiving opportunities and now enters his age-29 season with a clear path to the largest workload of his career. The 168-target void left behind by Antonio Brown is certainly of interest, but Jesse James' departure for Detroit might actually be more relevant to McDonald, especially after Pittsburgh waited until the fifth round of the 2019 draft to find a potential replacement (Zach Gentry). 

James handled 39 targets and 563 offensive snaps (50.5 percent) last season in an even timeshare with McDonald, who drew almost twice as many throws (72) on a nearly identical number of snaps (564). The latter finished 12th among tight ends with 400 routes run, but the number could've been much higher given that Pittsburgh attempted 45 more passes (689) than any  other team. James poached a number of opportunities simply by being on the field, finishing 22nd at the position with 277 routes. 

With only Gentry and Xavier Grimble standing in his way, McDonald has a shot to earn a three-down role in an offense that produced more than 4,300 receiving yards each of the last six seasons. JuJu Smith-Schuster doesn't have much room for volume growth beyond last year's 166 targets, and the veteran tight end is the only other safe bet for a regular role in the passing game (unless you trust James Washington or Donte Moncrief). 

McDonald's career marks of 13.0 yards per catch and 7.8 per target are impressive for a tight end, while his 59.8 percent catch rate is weighed down by some lean years in San Francisco with Blaine Gabbert and Colin Kaepernick playing quarterback. The numbers bump up to 66.7 percent and 8.3 YPT since he joined Pittsburgh, and that doesn't include a 10-catch, 112-yard outing against Jacksonville in McDonald's lone playoff game with the Steelers.    

He got it done last season with a mix of newfound consistency (two drops, 50 catches) and well-established athleticism, ranking third among TEs with 8.0 YAC per reception. His run-after-catch ability is nothing new, with McDonald leading the position at 8.7 YAC per reception in 2016, albeit on a sample of 24 catches. 

The combination of talent and improved team context gives McDonald margin for error, allowing him to achieve his long-awaited breakout even if he misses a few games along the way. This also is another case with some value in a mere repeat of last season, as the typical auction/draft cost isn't too far removed from his 2018 finish — TE12 in standard leagues, TE10 in PPR.     

LATE-ROUND LEAP OF FAITH 

Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys

We've seen enough from Prescott to have major reservations about his chances of ever becoming a top real-life quarterback. Fortunately, he doesn't need to join the league's elite to produce on their level, as long as he retains the cheat code (rushing stats) for QB fantasy production. 

With 16 starts and exactly six rushing TDs in each of his three seasons, Prescott has finished QB6 (2016), QB10 (2017) and QB10 (2018), landing between 260 and 288 fantasy points. Already well established as a useful player in favorable matchups, Prescott displayed weekly starter potential once Dallas acquired Amari Cooper. 

In nine games after the Cooper trade, Prescott bumped up to 19.3 fantasy points per week, prorating to 308.4 over a 16-game season. That would safely put him in top-10 territory, considering eight QBs reached 300 points last season, representing an uptick from 2017 (one), 2016 (five) and 2015 (seven). 

Prescott still took too many sacks (4.1 per game) after the trade, but he made up for it by completing 71.3 percent of his passes for 7.7 YPA, with 14 passing TDs, four rushing TDs and four interceptions. He maintained his improvement into the playoffs, accounting for 492 passing yards and four TDs (two rushing) in close games against the Seahawks and Rams. 

After two years of forcing passes to what little was left of Dez Bryant, the young quarterback finally got a true No. 1 receiver in Cooper, who went for 9.5 YPT with 725 yards and six scores in nine regular-season games, then added 171 and another TD in the playoffs. The Cowboys also got a nice late burst from rookie wideout Michael Gallup, who caught 14 of 25 targets for 240 yards (9.6 YPT) and two TDs between Weeks 16-17 and the two playoff games. 

The only major offseason loss on offense was Cole Beasley, who dropped off to 4.5 targets and 33.2 yards per week in 11 games after the Cooper trade. The Cowboys found a suitable slot replacement in Randall Cobb, shortly after receiving some unexpected good news about Jason Witten coming out of retirement.  

The 37-year-old tight end figures to take a backseat to Cooper, Gallup and Ezekiel Elliott in the passing game, but nobody will complain about Witten taking on snaps and targets that went to Geoff Swaim last year. There's even a chance the Dallas offensive line regains its peak 2016 form, with All-Pro center Travis Frederick on track to return from a missed season and retake his spot on an impressive line that also features LT Tyron Smith, RG Zack Martin and RT La'el Collins. 

New offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, while obviously unproven, should at least be a slight upgrade on the mere basis of not being Scott Linehan. It's interesting that the Cowboys only fired Linehan after he seemed to turn a corner, but it's probably a case of better late than never. 

Prescott's running stats kept his fantasy value afloat when the situation around him was bad, so why shouldn't they put him over the top into weekly starter territory now that he's back in a good spot for the first time since his rookie campaign?

MORE CANDIDATES           

Sam Darnold, QB, Jets - First-round QB gets better weapons Year 2; we've seen this play before. 

Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, 49ers - Improved supporting cast should offset any mobility limitations. 

Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens - Mere competence as a passer is all that's needed for QB1 production. 

Kenyan Drake, RB, Dolphins - Take 2 for the Drake breakout, this time with new coaches. 

Jaylen Samuels, RB, Steelers - Late emergence in 2018 could push James Conner into a timeshare. 

D'Onta Foreman, RB, Texans - A pick spent on Foreman is a bet against Lamar Miller. 

D.J. Moore, WR, Panthers - Efficient as a 21-year-old rookie and gets a nice boost from carries. 

Chris Godwin, WR, Buccaneers - No defense + no running game + no Humphries = plenty of targets.  

Mike Williams, WR, Chargers - Should get enough volume to cancel out TD-per-catch regression. 

Christian Kirk, WR, Cardinals - Poor man's D.J. Moore looked sharp before season-ending foot injury. 

Keke Coutee, WR, Texans - Including playoffs, averaged 5.6 catches in seven games as a rookie. 

Anthony Miller, WR, Bears - Better than Taylor Gabriel, and might be better than Allen Robinson too. 

Curtis Samuel, WR, Panthers - Probably a third wheel in Carolina, but that's OK if he gets some carries. 

Michael Gallup, WR, Cowboys - Should be Option C in an offense that finished last year strong. 

Tyrell Williams, WR, Raiders - Derek Carr needs someone to throw to besides Antonio Brown. 

Hunter Henry, TE, Chargers - Only 24 years old, with 12 TDs and 9.2 YPT on 115 career targets. 

David Njoku, TE, Browns - Competition for targets is fierce, but there's double-digit TD upside. 

Mark Andrews, TE, Ravens - How many rookie TEs produce 552 yards and 11 YPT? 

Mike Gesicki, TE, Dolphins - Digging deep now, but there's no lack of athleticism or opportunity. 

This article appears in the 2019 RotoWire Fantasy Football magazine. Order the magazine now.