This article is part of our NFL Reactions series.
Last week I gave a prolonged explanation for my simple thesis on the preseason: Scores and statistics don't matter, but we do get some useful hints about how coaches plan to use their players. I don't care about Jamison Crowder's 28-yard gain or three-yard touchdown; I do care that he played every snap with the first-team offense.
Before we jump in for Week 2 observations, let's take a quick look back to update the players I discussed last week:
Crowder played 14 snaps in Thursday's win over Atlanta, while fellow starters Sam Darnold, Chris Herndon, Robby Anderson, Quincy Enunwa and Ty Montgomery logged 16 apiece. The Jets have used the exact same grouping on 21 of 23 first-team snaps this preseason, with coach Adam Gase carrying his love for 11 personnel (3 WR, 1 TE, 1 RB) over from Miami. I'm sure he'll diversify a little during the regular season, but this is at least a hint that Anderson, Enunwa and Crowder all will play a lot of snaps and run a lot of routes.
The biggest remaining question is how often Montgomery subs in for Le'Veon Bell. Yes, I'm comfortable assuming Montgomery is the No. 2 back, with his preseason usage supporting what Jets beat writers already had been saying. In terms of Week 1, it's mostly just a concern for DFS — Bell is an obvious must-start either way, while Montgomery's best-case scenario for workload wouldn't warrant starter consideration outside of ultra-deep
Last week I gave a prolonged explanation for my simple thesis on the preseason: Scores and statistics don't matter, but we do get some useful hints about how coaches plan to use their players. I don't care about Jamison Crowder's 28-yard gain or three-yard touchdown; I do care that he played every snap with the first-team offense.
Before we jump in for Week 2 observations, let's take a quick look back to update the players I discussed last week:
Crowder played 14 snaps in Thursday's win over Atlanta, while fellow starters Sam Darnold, Chris Herndon, Robby Anderson, Quincy Enunwa and Ty Montgomery logged 16 apiece. The Jets have used the exact same grouping on 21 of 23 first-team snaps this preseason, with coach Adam Gase carrying his love for 11 personnel (3 WR, 1 TE, 1 RB) over from Miami. I'm sure he'll diversify a little during the regular season, but this is at least a hint that Anderson, Enunwa and Crowder all will play a lot of snaps and run a lot of routes.
The biggest remaining question is how often Montgomery subs in for Le'Veon Bell. Yes, I'm comfortable assuming Montgomery is the No. 2 back, with his preseason usage supporting what Jets beat writers already had been saying. In terms of Week 1, it's mostly just a concern for DFS — Bell is an obvious must-start either way, while Montgomery's best-case scenario for workload wouldn't warrant starter consideration outside of ultra-deep leagues.
Moving on, Robert Foster (foot) had another discouraging outing Thursday against Carolina, failing to get regular first-team snaps even with John Brown being held out. The Bills started Zay Jones and Cole Beasley, then brought in Andre Roberts for their first play in a three-wide formation. Foster did get a few snaps with the starters, but he finished the night with zero targets and then injured his foot during practice Monday.
Last but not least, O.J. Howard played eight of 10 first-team snaps Friday against Miami, after going 12-for-12 the previous week against Pittsburgh. I'll keep an eye on Howard this upcoming week to see if he has an every-down role, or at least something close to it, in the Bucs' third preseason game.
Notes From Week 2
Jordan Howard got the start in Philly's preseason opener, but it was Sanders who took the first snap Thursday against Jacksonville, playing six consecutive snaps before he was subbed out for the veteran. This always figured to be a three-man committee (or maybe even four?), and it now appears Sanders is challenging Howard for the lead role on early downs (Darren Sproles likely will get much of the passing-down work).
It doesn't hurt that the rookie gained 31 yards on five carries, while Howard was limited to 15 yards on four totes. And just in case you were wondering...Wendell Smallwood played most of the second quarter, followed by Josh Adams in the third and Boston Scott/Donnel Pumphrey in the fourth. Corey Clement (knee) didn't play, but he did get first-team snaps at Monday's joint practice with the Ravens.
Jacobs started Friday's game against Arizona and played the first six snaps, taking four carries for 21 yards. Jon Gruden didn't bother deferring to his veterans, instead having Doug Martin and Jalen Richards share snaps with the second unit. We can shut down any whispers about Martin getting more Week 1 carries than Jacobs (those whispers were never worth listening to anyway).
My concern is the overall quality of the Raiders, along with Richard's role on passing downs. Pass-catching skill is part of the prospect appeal with Jacobs, but that doesn't mean he'll put it to use on a regular basis his rookie season. He could have one of those frustrating fantasy campaigns with 200+ carries but only 20-30 catches and five or six touchdowns (see: Lamar Miller in 2018, C.J. Anderson in 2017).
James Conner and Jaylen Samuels
Last night, the Steelers used James Conner on every snap with the first unit, including 3rd-and-2, 3rd-and-7, 3rd-and-9. That's far more relevant than Jaylen Samuels doing well with his work. And I say that as someone with no Conner shares and tons of Samuels shares.
— JerryDonabedian (@RotowireNFL_JD) August 18, 2019
Suddenly I don't feel so great about repeatedly drafting Samuels in the ninth or 10th round of 12-team, best-ball leagues. Sure, he still has RB1 upside in the event of a Conner injury. It's just that I also was hoping for 3-4 carries and 3-4 targets per game even if Conner stayed healthy. Let's see what Pittsburgh does in the third week of the preseason with Ben Roethlisberger under center.
Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny
Russell Wilson played 19 snaps in the Seahawks' second preseason game. Chris Carson was on the field for 15 of them. Rashaad Penny played just 4 snaps with Wilson.
— Jeff Ratcliffe (@JeffRatcliffe) August 20, 2019
Here's another one I didn't want to see, as my early draft investment leans heavily toward Penny and away from Carson. They'll both have important roles in a run-heavy offense, but I would've liked to see a closer split in the first extended action for Seattle's starting offense. Sigh.
Hey, look! It's some good news for me...finally. Coleman got the start Monday in Denver, but Breida was just as big a part of the first-team offense in a hideous performance from Jimmy Garoppolo. With Jerick McKinnon (knee) now a mystery, there's room for both Coleman and Breida to average double-digit touches. All those late-round Breida shares look pretty sweet right now, even if Jimmy G looks is a hot mess (he should be fine....I think?).
Pollard got the start and played the entire opening drive Saturday against the Rams, taking five carries for 42 yards and a touchdown while adding nine yards on his lone target. He may have been a gadget player in college, but the preseason usage suggests Pollard is ahead of Alfred Morris, Mike Weber and Darius Jackson in a Zekeless backfield. FWIW, I still expect Ezekiel Elliott to return before Week 1, with or without a new contract.
Phillip Lindsay, Royce Freeman and Devontae Booker
All three running backs played multiple snaps on the opening drive of Monday's game against San Francisco, with Lindsay getting the start and Booker coming in for a 3rd-and-6 and a 3rd-and-12. Between the signing of since-injured Theo Riddick (shoulder) and what we saw Monday, there's no denying that the Broncos don't trust Lindsay or Freeman to handle passing downs.
It will be hard for both players to match ADP value in a timeshare if they also have to deal with Booker/Riddick poaching those snaps and targets again. Remember that Lindsay's value last season came from ridiculous efficiency on the ground, while he dropped five of 47 targets and managed just 5.1 YPT. He seems like someone who would be a good pass catcher, but that hasn't been the reality so far, even though he had a college season with a 53-493-1 receiving line. I'm not saying Lindsay on passing downs won't ever happen; I just can't count on it happening early this year. And that's a problem for Freeman as well as for Lindsay himself.
We're suddenly seeing a lot of panic about Andrews, who has been hyped by multiple Baltimore beat writers as the best receiving option at training camp. The second-year pro has been limited to passing downs with the first-team offense through the first two weeks of the preseason, mirroring his role from last year.
One question here — why is anyone surprised? The Ravens handed Nick Boyle a $7 million signing bonus in March, and they aren't giving up on 2018 first-round pick Hayden Hurst after a single injury-plagued season. This was always going to be a three-way timeshare — one where Andrews handles passing situations and also get some snaps in multi-TE formations (in an offense that could lead the league in usage of those formations).
He doesn't need to be on the field all that often, given that he ran a pass route on 276 of his 414 snaps (66.7 percent) last year. He isn't likely to match last year's marks of 16.2 yards per catch and 11.0 yards per target, but it's a safe bet Andrews will draw the pass on a higher percentage of his routes (just 18.1 percent last year).
My best guess? 500 snaps x 65 percent = 325 routes. 325 routes x 24 percent = 78 targets (a number only 10 TEs reached in 2018). Considering what we saw last year, that should be enough volume for Andrew to reach low-end TE1 range. The more realistic target date for a true breakout is 2020 or 2021 — that was the case a month ago and is still the case today.
With Kenyan Drake (foot) unavailable, Ballage got the superstar treatment and was held out of Friday's preseason game against Tampa Bay. For all my skepticism about Ballage's merits as a player, it's clear the Miami coaching staff is prepared to use him in a major role.
Of lesser importance, Walton got the start and worked ahead of Myles Gaskin, managing just five carries for eight yards and one catch for 12 yards. The third week of the preseason should give us a better idea of where this depth battle stands, as neither player has done much to gain separation. There's also the matter of Walton eventually facing NFL discipline for his various arrests.
Mike Davis and David Montgomery
The Bears held out a slew of top players from Friday's game against the Giants, including Mitchell Trubisky, Allen Robinson, Khalil Mack and Kyle Fuller. Also missing, with no injury designation? David Montgomery and Tarik Cohen, while Mike Davis played his lone snap on special teams. No surprise here on Cohen, but I expected Davis and Montgomery to at least make token appearances. On the one hand, this gives us even more evidence of the Bears holding Montgomery in high regard. On the other, it might be taken as a hint that Davis also is being preserved for Week 1. Let's see how it shakes out Saturday against Indianapolis.
Cameron Artis-Payne and Jordan Scarlett
Now we're digging a bit deeper for anyone worried about a Christian McCaffrey injury... a possibility the Panthers seem to be ignoring. Maybe they'll rely on Cam Newton, D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel to cobble together an ultra-innovative, tailback-free rushing attack if McCaffrey misses time? If not, they'll turn to either Scarlett or Artis-Payne, with the latter first through the rotation in Friday's preseason loss to the Bills. Neither offers much elusiveness or pass-catching ability, but the rookie fifth-round pick at least has speed (4.47 40) working in his favor. Joseph Person of The Athletic believes Scarlett is in good position to earn a roster spot, after he went for 35 yards on eight carries and 14 yards on one reception Friday night.
