Collette Calls: Changing Marketplace

In mid-December, some of the site's baseball writers along with some other guests participated in a 15-team mixed mock draft for the annual RotoWire magazine (which you can buy here). As luck would have it, Mixed LABR drafted a few nights ago. The only difference between the two formats is that LABR has just six rounds of reserves while our mock draft had seven. Given that it has been two months since our mock draft, I think that it would be a productive exercise to see how the marketplace has changed since that mid-December night as we head into the busiest part of draft season.

Biggest Risers

The automatic assumption would be that Amir Garrett was the highest riser because the mock draft happened before Raisel Iglesias was dealt to the Angels, but this mock took place two full weeks after the trade. It would appear that Garrett still has the biggest leg up on the closer role, especially with Lucas Sims on the mend with a barking elbow. Kolten Wong landing in a very favorable situation in Milwaukee where the ballpark and managerial tendencies are very much in his favor. He received a noticeable bump in value, with good reason. I am not sure how to explain the bump with Shohei Ohtani and Oscar Mercado as I have seen nothing this offseason to justify the renewed interest in either player. Pete Fairbanks appears to be well-positioned for saves in Tampa Bay, but you should have the following sentence tattooed into your forearm as a reminder to yourself on draft day:

TAMPA BAY WILL NOT USE A DEDICATED CLOSER

A number of pitchers recorded at least one save in the last eight seasons for the Rays:

• 2013: 6
• 2014: 7
• 2015: 8
• 2016: 5
• 2017: 6
• 2018: 7
• 2019: 11
• 2020: 12 — in a 60-game season!

Alex Colome was the last full-time closer the club utilized, but he was traded in early 2018. Since his departure, the club has used anyone from Aaron Slegers to Edgar Garcia to pick up a save. Fairbanks does indeed appear to be well-positioned to get saves this season, but so is Diego Castillo, and so is Nick Anderson. Eighteen relievers earned a save for the club the last two seasons. I implore you: do not reach for Fairbanks. 

Joc Pederson's bump in value makes more sense than some of the other hitters in front of him because he found himself a cozy landing spot in Wrigley Field and could finally get a chance to show he can, in fact, hit lefties. Last I checked, Mitch Keller was still pitching for a club that is going to struggle to win 50 games this season, so his ratios and strikeouts will have to be stellar to overcome the lack of wins. Ryan McMahon could see a jump in playing time now that Ian Desmond has paused his 2021 career, but so could non-roster invitee C.J. Cron, whose power becomes intriguing in Coors and who saw his own ADP jump from 318 in our mock to 213 in LABR. Blake Treinen's value has surged, even though he stayed with the Dodgers, because the market views Kenley Jansen's hold on the closer role more tenuous by the season. The fact Los Angeles is paying him $8.5M a year as a Jansen insurance policy speaks to how they value the situation, so dreams of drafting both pitchers should be addressed accordingly. The same could be said somewhat for Zack Britton, though Aroldis Chapman has a very firm hold on the closer role unless an injury pops up. Eduardo Escobar got quite a bump from our December draft as LABR weighted 2018 and 2019 heavily while mostly ignoring the recency bias of 2020 that was experienced in December. My issues with Corey Kluber were outlined in the AL East Bold Prediction installment, so please revisit that piece to see why I see this Yankee tax as quite the risk for 2021. 

Biggest Fallers

Jonathan Villar's value took a hit once he signed what is essentially a utility-role contract with the Mets. His path to playing time leans on either Francisco Lindor or Jeff McNeil getting injured or the Universal DH coming back into play, none of which seems likely at this point. Villar went from a top-125 pick to a reserve play. Jake Croneworth fell into the same trap once San Diego spent the offseason signing and acquiring every player not nailed down on the market.  Jordan Romano's market value tanked once Toronto picked up Kirby Yates on the cheap. Lucas Sims absorbed the damage of the Amir Garrett rise, and perhaps took it to his elbow which is why Sims is not yet in camp throwing with the club. Wilmer Flores's values took the hit once the club signed and inserted Tommy La Stella to the top of the lineup, as without the universal DH Flores is limited to riding the pine as an injury insurance policy without a clear path to even a short-sided platoon situation. Jo Adell's value took a hit once the club traded for Dexter Fowler and brought in Juan Lagares as NRI, meaning the club is quite comfortable stalling Adell's service clock as long as possible. Profar surprisingly returned to San Diego, where talent is aplenty but playing time is not, so his drop is predictable. Garrett Hampson continues to play for the Rockies, which is his biggest penalty. The Desmond news does not directly impact Hampson, but he still lacks a clear path to playing time unless someone is traded or injured in March and without a starting position, that 254 slot in December cannot be justified. Rowdy Tellez is a surprising drop given he should still be the primary DH for Toronto this season, and them opening the season in LH-friendly Dunedin should be a value boost. It's looking more apparent that Toronto might play the season in Dunedin and Buffalo, so their hitters will benefit accordingly, and Tellez is now quite the ADP value compared to his December value. 

Undrafted in LABR

The following players were taken in our December mock draft, but were not drafted in mixed LABR:

MacKenzie Gore saw his future clouded when San Diego acquired several new arms. Masahiro Tanaka went back overseas, and Seth Lugo's recent injury news took him from down the charts. Nate Lowe's new home in Texas still has not convinced enough people he has what it takes to be a viable fantasy contributor while Treinen's return to the Dodgers ended hopes of Brusdar Graterol becoming a closer. Yes, Evan White had a disastrous rookie season, but Seattle did not give him a guaranteed deal for nothing, and he could be a nice end-game target now. Corey Dickerson still hits in the middle of the Miami lineup and continues to be undervalued, and the same could be said for Renato Nunez, who could be a regular in the Detroit lineup. Josh Staumont's value was impacted when Greg Holland returned to the team as well as more spotlight being thrown on Scott Barlow's value, while the move to Tampa Bay from San Diego pushed Luis Patino's value to undraftable in LABR. If you ask me for some favorite names on this undrafted list, I'd say Patrick Sandoval is the most intriguing pitcher for me this season along with Steven Brault while I'll continue to acquire shares of Dickerson and want to give Josh Naylor a new chance in his new home.