This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
UFC 309 Fight Breakdowns & DFS Picks: Drake's Takes
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC 309 card are up, as well as breakdowns of betting and lineup strategy, plus predictions for the entire event.
Veronica Hardy (9-4-1) v. Eduarda Moura (10-1-0)
Veronica Hardy - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 64" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 9 wins
Eduarda Moura - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 66" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: Hardy should provide a solid test for Moura. She has won three straight and shown off an improved game. Moura had a split decision for the first loss in her career last time out but has shown a well-rounded game throughout her ten fights. I am not convinced Hardy has what it takes to make a ride into the top-15 and prefer Moura's game overall. I expect Moura to find plenty of success on the mat and grind out a decision. I do not see a high score coming from this fight without a finish or spammed takedowns.
UFC 309 Pick: Moura
Oban Elliott (11-2-0) v. Bassil Hafez (9-4-1)
Oban Elliott - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 11 wins
Bassil Hafez - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: This fight should come down to whoever secures their takedowns. Both fighters are still relatively new to the UFC, but Elliott has yet to lose in the promotion. I would give Elliott the edge on the mat and Hafez the advantage with striking. It should be a close fight, but I'll side with the slight favorite.
UFC 309 Pick: Elliott
Mickey Gall (7-6-0) v. Ramiz Brahimaj (10-5-0)
Mickey Gall - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 74" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 7 wins
Ramiz Brahimaj - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: This is another fight that should feature heavy grappling. I have not been impressed with any part of Gall's game over his last six fights, but he should have his chances in this one. Brahimaj has alternated wins and losses in his five UFC fights, but his most recent loss was bad. If he wants to get back in the win column, his ground game must be on point. The winner of this fight could score very well for DFS, and it could go either way, so having both sides in GPP contests is wise.
UFC 309 Pick: Brahimaj
Marcin Tybura (25-9-0) v. Jhonata Diniz (8-0-0)
Marcin Tybura - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 78" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 16 finishes in 25 wins
Jhonata Diniz - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 79" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: If Tybura can find success with takedowns, he should win this fight handily. However, Diniz has shown solid takedown defense and should avoid enough to get the job done on the feet. I would not expect a high score without a finish, but it is always possible with heavyweights.
UFC 309 Pick: Diniz
Jim Miller (37-18-0) v. Damon Jackson (23-7-1)
Jim Miller - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 71" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 27 finishes in 37 wins
Damon Jackson - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 71" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 19 finishes in 23 wins
DFS Perspective: This is one of the more difficult fights to gauge. Miller does not seem to get worse with age, and both guys are about as tough as they come. I would not give either guy a huge edge anywhere this fight goes, but Jackson will likely move a little faster and throw a little more volume. Jackson is the pick, but it could go either way.
UFC 309 Pick: Jackson
Chris Weidman (16-7-0) v. Eryk Anders (16-8-0)
Chris Weidman - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 78" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 16 wins
Eryk Anders - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 75" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: I have little interest in this fight for DFS. Neither guy is active enough to score well in a decision, and it is likely that it will go that way. Anders will likely have a tiny edge on the feet that should be the difference in this fight.
UFC 309 Pick: Anders
Jonathan Martinez (19-5-0) v. Marcus McGhee (9-1-0)
Jonathan Martinez - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 70" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 19 wins
Marcus McGhee - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: McGhee is listed as the favorite, which is a big mistake. He has fought nobody near the level of Martinez, and while he has the power to knock him out, I do not see it happening. Martinez should be levels ahead in striking and his dangerous leg kicks should keep McGhee out of the pocket. Martinez is one of the slate's best underdogs and an excellent DFS play for all contests.
UFC 309 Pick: Martinez
Mauricio Ruffy (10-1-0) v. James Llontop (14-4-0)
Mauricio Ruffy - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 10 wins
James Llontop - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: Llontop received a striking match in his last fight, and it was the most impressive performance he has had to date, even though it was a loss. His striking was crisp, and he showed a new confidence. However, Ruffy is a freak, and it was on display in his debut. His power and ability to avoid taking big shots will take him a long way in the UFC. I expect Ruffy to put on another show and get this done early.
UFC 309 Pick: Ruffy
Karine Silva (18-4-0) v. Viviane Araujo (12-6-0)
Karine Silva - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 17 finishes in 18 wins
Viviane Araujo - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: Silva has won all four of her UFC fights and draws another step up in competition. She has shown a dynamic fighting style that fits power striking with an insane ground game. Araujo continued her fall off, losing her third fight in the last four. She is still a tough out, but Silva should have no issue dominating this matchup. A finish is unlikely, as Araujo has only been finished once in her career, but I would not put anything past "Killer" Silva. Silva is one of my favorite plays of the slate and is a lock for DFS.
UFC 309 Pick: Silva
Bo Nickal (6-0-0) v. Paul Craig (17-8-1)
Bo Nickal - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 76" – Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 6 wins
Paul Craig - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 76" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 17 finishes in 17 wins
DFS Perspective: Not much to say here. Nickal is as dominant as it gets. Craig will need one of his famous Hail Mary submissions to pull off some kind of win. Nickal is the most expensive fighter on the slate and difficult to fit in lineups, but he should score exceptionally well.
UFC 309 Pick: Nickal
Charles Oliveira (34-10-0) v. Michael Chandler (23-8-0)
Charles Oliveira - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 31 finishes in 34 wins
Michael Chandler - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 18 finishes in 23 wins
DFS Perspective: This is a rematch from 2021, which ended in an Oliveira knockout win in the second round. Chandler has not fought in two years and will likely experience ring rust in a five-round fight, though I do not see it going five rounds. Oliveira will need to avoid Chandler's power, and it is a good bet that he gets this to the mat early, where he likely submits him. Both fighters will be popular for DFS, as the odds of this ending early are high.
UFC 309 Pick: Oliveira
Jon Jones (27-1-0) v. Stipe Miocic (20-4-0)
Jon Jones - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 84" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 17 finishes in 27 wins
Stipe Miocic - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 80" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 20 wins
DFS Perspective: I still do not understand why this is a fight. Stipe has not fought since March of 2021 and is expected to be ready for Jon Jones. I do not see it happening. Jones should dominate this fight from start to finish. However, I could see this playing out very slowly as a potential last fight for both combatants. I see it as more of a GPP play for optimal, but Jones is solid for cash contests.
UFC 309 Pick: Jones
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
