UFC 303 looked to be in shambles a few weeks ago, but an all-action Main Event and some compelling fights down the card were enough to satisfy fans after the loss of Conor McGregor. We'll analyze every bout across three platforms on the 13-fight slate, including a tireless worker against a promising prospect and a featherweight who is taking the UFC by storm. Our betting line this week comes from the RotoWire MMA betting page and is accurate to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Ian Garry ($8,200)
Unfortunately, Michael Page's UFC debut largely played out according to my prediction, as neither he nor Kevin Holland seemed keen to engage, resulting in a lackluster decision. By contrast, Garry is one of the most active strikers in the UFC (6.27 strikes landed per minute) and has a functional wrestling game. "MVP" frequently found himself stuck on bottom when encountering wrestlers in Bellator, and while it seldom led to defeat, very few of those fighters were as well-rounded and dangerous as Garry.
Gillian Robertson ($8,700)
While she's always been a competent striker, Michelle Waterson-Gomez is without a true home in the UFC, which doesn't seem to have any designs on creating an atomweight division. Thus, she will always be disadvantaged against strong grapplers like Robertson, who only struggles when she can't get her opponent to the mat. The fan-favorite status of "The Karate Hottie" may have gotten us a more favorable line than normal for this style matchup, as Waterson-Gomez will enter this matchup sporting a modest 70 percent takedown defense rate.
Rei Tsuruya ($9,300)
Tsyruya brings the chaos we've come to expect from Pancrase fighters, as he will frantically look for takedowns from the opening bell and is incredibly comfortable in scrambling situations. Carlos Hernandez is a solid kickboxer, but we've seen him struggle against opponents who are heavy on the pressure. Unlike other fighters with his style, Tsuruya has several wins outside the first round, so prospective owners won't need to worry about him burning out if he can't finish early.
Macy Chiasson ($7,400)
Chiasson is at even odds (-110) ahead of her fight against Mayra Bueno Silva, making this one of the most blatant instances of line value I can remember seeing. Though this does mean she will likely be a popular selection, the juice may be worth the squeeze, as Chiasson has notched over 100 DraftKings points in six of her seven UFC wins. She will need to be careful on the ground, as Silva is capable of securing submissions off of her back, but the 11:28 of control time she ceded to Raquel Pennington in their five-round fight gives me confidence that the stronger fighter will be able to take control here.
Ricky Simon ($8,900)
Vinicius Oliveira had a highlight-reel knockout for the ages in his UFC debut. Running halfway across the cage, he delivered a flush flying knee on his opponent that turned out the lights in Round 3. While thrilling, it tends to obscure the fact that Oliveira was taken down three times and controlled for four and a half minutes before he could execute the maneuver on a clearly tired fighter. Simon's fighting style has its limitations, but we never have to worry about him being too exhausted to pursue his grappling in the cage. This could lead to rinse-and-repeat takedowns and a juicy point total.
Marc-Andre Barriault ($7,200)
It's not often that a prospect gets booked into a style matchup they just lost, but that's the case with Joe Pyfer here, as Jack Hermansson was able to pour on the pressure and wear "Bodybagz" down over five rounds. While this fight is only three frames, "Powerbar" has built his entire style around grinding out opponents with activity in close range. There aren't many sneaky underdog plays on this slate, but Barriault qualifies, as he has only been knocked out once in his 24-fight career. This likely means he will be there in the late frames when his opponent begins to flag.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Significant Strikes
Andrei Arlovski OVER 50.5 Significant Strikes, Jean Silva UNDER 68.5 Significant Strikes, and Cub Swanson OVER 49.5 Significant Strikes
Favorites and underdogs from the same fight have lines to play this week, so it makes sense to target fighters with lower totals in bouts where we expect to see a lot of range striking. Arlovski's fight against Martin Buday is one example, as Buday has not notched more than two minutes of control time in any of his last four fights. Once thought to have a suspect chin, Arlovski has been knocked out just once in his last 11 contests, meaning that he should be able to use his speed and crisp jab to tally significant strikes for three rounds.
We've seen Silva run up his strike total in the past, but he has never fought someone like Charles Jourdain, who has an excellent command of range and will use his jab to control the tempo of a fight. Silva is a powerful, athletic striker who generally looks for one shot at a time, so his totals should remain low as long as "Air" doesn't decide to brawl in the pocket.
Cub Swanson has always been a scrapper and has logged at least 77 significant strikes in each of his last three fights that have gone the distance. Despite scoring an impressive knockout in his last win against Lucas Almeida, "Touchy" is far from a dedicated finisher, as we can see from his 10 KO/TKOS in 24 professional victories. He has only been finished six times over that span, which should ensure a kickboxing match between two active fighters for the better part of 15 minutes.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Fight Time
Payton Talbott UNDER 9.75 Minutes of Fight Time, Roman Dolidze UNDER 12.5 Minutes of Fight Time, and Alex Pereira UNDER 9.75 Minutes of Fight Time
Talbott showed when dismantling an incredibly tough opponent in Cameron Saaiman that he won't be left searching if he runs into an opponent who can take his initial shots. This focus on finding a finish should lead to another short night against Yanis Ghemmouri, who is far too comfortable letting his opponent dictate terms. This will allow Talbott to pour on the offense early, leading to an exchange that ends the fight.
As Anthony Smith becomes older and more foot-slow, he must rely more on his BJJ. We saw this in his submission win over Vitor Petrino, as "Lionheart" looked incredibly uncomfortable at range before his opponent forced a grappling exchange. Dolidze swings incredibly hard in the pocket and always looks for fight-ending sequences when the fight hits the ground. Between Smith's fragility and Dolidze's penchant for forcing action, it's hard to imagine this bout gets out of the second round.
The line for our main event may be influenced by how often Jiri Prochazka wrestled during the first fight. Still, it wouldn't surprise me if we saw less grappling from "BJP" as a sloppy takedown attempt led to his loss in November. If we can be reasonably certain these two men will primarily strike with each other, then this total feels like a gift, as Jiri's aggression and lack of defense, combined with Pereira's power and counter-punching, should make for a very short affair.
Bets to Consider
Diego Lopes wins via KO/TKO (+250)
Brian Ortega's comeback win over Yair Rodriguez wasn't the first time we saw "T-City" get bailed out by his superior jiujitsu after falling behind in a fight. This will likely not be an option against Lopes, who held his own on the ground against Movsar Evloev in his UFC debut and pairs his aggression with incredible power for the division. I still expect Ortega to be the better jiujitsu player here, but if he cannot dominate in the grappling exchanges, Lopes will get the fight where he can take control.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our UFC 303 Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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