This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC 300 DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
A monumental UFC 300 takes place Saturday, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $1 million UFC 300 Special with $200k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Light Heavyweight Championship
(C) Alex Pereira (9-2-0) v. Jamahal Hill (12-1-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Pereira ($8,300), Hill ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Pereira (-125), Hill (+105)
This is absolutely not a bad fight, but it's a strange fight to headline an event of this magnitude.
The former UFC Middleweight Champion, Pereira moved up to light heavyweight last July and took a split decision from Jan Blachowicz. He then fought Jiri Prochazka for the vacant 205-pound title about three months later and won via second-round knockout. Why was the title vacated you ask? Well, because the former champion, Hill, was forced to give up his title after rupturing his Achilles in a pickup basketball game.
Pereira is a massive man. It's nothing short of a miracle he was able to make the 185-pound middleweight limit. His power is ridiculous, something that isn't a surprise from a guy who was both the Glory Kickboxing former Middleweight and Light Heavyweight Champion. I've also been highly impressed with his grappling. Yes, he gave up three takedowns to Blachowicz and has been grounded in four of seven UFC bouts, but this is a guy with just 11 professional fights under his belt at age 36. The fact he isn't plastered to the mat for long stretches at a time every single time out speaks to his work ethic and athleticism.
I'm still not sure quite how good Hill is. He's 5-1 in his past six bouts. Four of those wins were knockouts over Ovince Saint Preux, Jimmy Crute, Johnny Walker and Thiago Santos. The unanimous decision, by far his most impressive effort to date, was a 50-44 x3 white washing of Glover Teixeira to win the title in January 2023, which is the last time Hill fought. I have all the respect in the world for Glover, but he was 43 years of age at the time. Does the fact Hill dominated him to rise to the top of a thin division make him a legitimate long-term title contender? I have my doubts.
As most folks who read this column know, Periera is trained by Teixiera and has been for quite a while now. The two are part of an underrated team in Connecticut. The fact Glover was in there against Hill for 25 minutes is a MAJOR advantage for Pereira in my opinion. Teixeira's body is starting to break down on him at an advanced age, but his mind is sharp as ever, and I think his experience of fighting Hill is going to serve Alex extremely well.
Hill doesn't have a single submission victory in his career. He's also never landed a takedown in his entire UFC run. If he's able to go out and grapple the heck out of Pereira en route to getting his belt back, more power to him. The flip side and most likely scenario is that this turns into a stand-up brawl. You never want to bet against Alex in that type of fight, and I personally don't want to bet on Hill given the fact he is coming off such a major injury.
Maybe Hill is better than I think, but I'm not paying to find out. Pereira looks like a value play given the skill sets of each man and Jamahal's time away.
THE PICK: Pereira
Co-Main Event - Women's Strawweight Championship
(C) Zhang Weili (24-3-0) v. Yan Xiaonan (17-3-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Zhang ($9,200), Yan ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Zhang (-500), Yan (+380)
Zhang will be 35 years of age this coming August, but she's clearly the cream of the crop in the 115-pound female division and may very well be the best pound-for-pound female fighter in the world today. Zhang won the belt after submitting Carla Esparza in November 2022 and made her first title defense against Amanda Lemos last August, winning one of the most lopsided unanimous decisions (50-43, 50-44, 49-45) you will ever see. Lemos isn't great, but she's far from a pushover. Zhang closed that fight with a 296-29 (!!!!) edge in total strikes landed, in addition to connecting on 6-of-7 takedown attempts, good for 16:07 worth of control time. That's the type of dominance Zhang is capable of.
Yan is 2-2 in her past four fights, so she probably doesn't really deserve a title shot, but the UFC is a business first and foremost, and this fight is going to be big business overseas. Yan was knocked out by Esparza and dropped a split decision to Marina Rodriguez before rebounding with a majority decisions over Mackenzie Dern and a first-round knockout over Jessica Andrade. A victory over Andrade doesn't mean a ton these days, and the Dern victory is considerably less impressive after she was dominated by Lemos this past February. You can't rely on "MMA math" to make a pick, but Yan may very well be in for a long night at the office.
Zhang is a complete mixed martial artist. She's ridiculously strong for her size. She averages 5.94 significant strikes landed per minute, while connecting on 2.29 takedowns per 15 minutes. She can win everywhere and has no real durability issues to speak of, having been knocked out just once in 27 pro fights (even that result was kind of fluky given it was a head kick from Rose Namajunas). The lack of holes in Zhang's game leads me to believe she can hold onto her title for quite a while.
I'm trying to come up with a way Yan can keep this fight close, let alone win, and I'm struggling. Her knockout of Andrade was her first with the UFC, so it's not as if she's consistently stopping her opposition at this level. Virtually all her knockouts came on the Chinese regional scene against no-name competition. She doesn't have the technical procession of Zhang in the stand-up, and she's miles behind her opposition in terms of grappling.
This fight makes for a nice story on paper, but I think there's a better than even chance we're looking at a rout once the opening bell rings. I expect Yan to give a better effort than say, Lemos did in her title bout, but I'd be pretty floored if she pulled the upset here. Give my Zhang in a clear decision.
THE PICK: Zhang
Lightweight - "BMF" Championship
(C) Justin Gaethje (25-4-0) v. Max Holloway (25-7-0)
DK Salaries: Gaethje ($8,800), Holloway ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Gaethje (-175), Holloway (+145)
The most entertaining fighter on the UFC roster, Gaethje's 2023 consisted of taking a majority decision over Rafael Fiziev and knocking out Dustin Poirier with a head kick in a span of just over four months. Justin may not be a contender for the UFC Lightweight Championship in the traditional sense, but he remains one of the most popular fighters on the entire roster and is cashing well-deserved, massive paydays every time out.
You can't help but feel a little bad for Holloway. Max has lost three featherweight fights dating back to August 2013 and all three were against Alexander Volkanovski. Now Volkanovski loses his 145-pound title to Ilia Topuria and Holloway has signed to take a lightweight fight. No matter, Holloway should find himself right back in the title picture at featherweight regardless of the result here, something that absolutely would not have been the case had Topuria not pulled the upset.
Holloway's last lightweight fight was against Poirier in April 2019. He was competitive in that fight before eventually losing via unanimous decision. Max struggled early and late, but thrived in the middle rounds against Dustin. It's absolutely worth noting that Poirier is a big, physical lightweight and probably one of the last guys you want to face if you're moving up to 155 pounds.
Gaethje's UFC run has been an overwhelming success, and I don't see how anyone can argue otherwise. A reckless, one-dimensional brawler back in his WSOF (PFL) days, he's not only adapted his game to face the best competition in the world but has thrived as a result. The days of him consistently blitzing his opposition in hopes of scoring a knockout have come and gone. Justin is picking his spots far better than ever before, and it's made him a far more effective fighter as a result.
If Justin fights against Holloway with the same type of game plan in which he fought Fiziev and Poirier, I think he wins. One of Max's biggest strengths is his size and length advantage over most everyone at featherweight, but Gaethje is the same exactly height and will actually enter with a one-inch reach edge. The constant ability of Holloway to stay to the outside and pick his opposition apart isn't going to work against Justin.
I see this fight playing out similarly to Holloway's bout against Poirier. Max is simply too talented, too good and too durable (he's never been knocked out) to not show well, even against a high-end lightweight like Gaethje, but I also think Holloway's greatest gifts are largely negated competing at 155 pounds. I expect him to find himself right back in the featherweight title picture, even if he loses here, which I think will be the case.
THE PICK: Gaethje
Lightweight
Charles Oliveira (34-9-0, 1NC) v. Arman Tsarukyan (21-3-0)
DK Salaries: Oliveira ($7,500), Tsarukyan ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Oliveira (+185), Tsarukyan (+225)
Oliveira has somehow won 12 of his last 13 fights dating back to June 2018 despite competing in the most loaded division in the sport. Included in that stretch are victories over Gaethje, Poirier, Michael Chandler and Tony Ferguson (back when that truly meant something). Charles dropped his 155-pound crown to Islam Makhachev in October 2022, but responded by knocking out Beneil Daruish last June. The performance in the Dariush fight was a big deal. Beneil is no pushover, and Charles went out and hammered a guy that has been a staple in the division for a long time. Unfortunately for Oliveira, the competition level rises considerably here.
Tsarukyan's most recent win, oddly enough, was also a knockout of Dariush. He's gone 8-2 in the UFC, with the two setbacks being unanimous decision defeats to elite competition in Makhachev and Mateusz Gamrot. While the sample size is small compared to what we have seen from Oliveira in the past, everything Tsarukyan has put on tape to date suggests he's a legitimate future title contender.
Oliveira is the bigger man by three inches, but Arman should have a clear edge in terms of technical boxing. Charles has been easily suckered into brawls in the latter stages of his career, and although he has obviously emerged on top most every time, that's not the way he should go about trying to win fights. Frankly, Oliveira is fortunate to have the record he does because I haven't been impressed with his decision-making at times inside the Octagon, particularly lately.
By far the most fascinating aspect of this fight is the fact Tsarukyan's greatest strength will play directly into the greatest strength of Oliveira.
Arman is averaging 3.4 takedowns per 15 minutes. We've seen him rack up a ridiculous amount of control time on his opposition the past en route to easy decision victories. That said, Oliveira is about the last guy in the division, or on the roster, really, that you want to be rolling around on the mat with. His 16 submission victories are the most in UFC history. His 20 finishes are also the most in company history.
To summarize, I actually think Tsarukyan would be wise to try to keep this thing standing, even thought his first instinct will almost certainly be to try to drag Charles to the mat. I have time for Oliveira given his cheap salary, but I like the favorite to emerge victorious.
THE PICK: Tsarukyan
Middleweight
Bo Nickal (5-0-0) v. Cody Brundage (10-5-0)
DK Salaries: Nickal ($9,500), Brundage ($6,700)
Vegas Odds: Nickal (-2100), Brundage (+1100)
Nickal is literally the brightest prospect in the sport today, which is why the UFC is having him open the main card of what theoretically should be the biggest card of the year. The 28-year-old is 5-0 in his professional career, with five first-round stoppage wins. None of Nickal's pro bouts have gone longer than 2:54. He's an athletic freak of nature and is being given a layup opponent here, which is somewhat surprising.
Brundage probably should have been handed his walking papers following a three-fight losing streak from December 2022 to June 2023. He was well on his way to a fourth straight defeat last September, at which time he was clocked in the back of the end by Jacob Malkoun and made a business decision, deciding he couldn't continue. He won the fight via DQ and was thus given another chance, at which point he knocked out Zachary Reese with a slam a couple months later. This will almost certainly be a career-best payday for Brundage, so him accepting a bout he has about zero chance of winning makes sense.
A three-time Division I national champion wrestler at Penn State, Nickal is going to be able to dominate Brundage at the point of attack. His striking skills are an open question, but Cody isn't going to be able to test him in that area, so it won't matter here.
Brundage's entire offensive arsenal consists of trying to pull guard whenever possible, which is funny, because only three of his ten pro wins are via submission. I have less than no idea how he's going to survive five minutes due to the physicality of Nickal, let alone win.
Again, dumping a massive chunk of your budget on a guy with five pro fights is always dicey, but Bo's physical gifts are elite, and he's facing a well below-average opponent. Nickal has two wins on Dana White's Contender Series. His two official wins with the UFC are over Jamie Pickett and Val Woodburn. I think both of those guys could hang with Brundage. Give me Bo in a rout, again, at which point we'll all be wondering (again) why the company didn't push him a bit here. There's plenty of middle ground between Brundage and the top guys in the division. If one guy is north of a -2000 favorite, I'm of the firm belief the promoters could have came up with a better option.
THE PICK: Nickal
Light Heavyweight
Jiri Prochazka (29-4-1) v. Aleksandar Rakic (14-3-0)
DK Salaries: Prochazka ($8,000), Rakic ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Prochazka (+100), Rakic (-120)
Prochazka's knockout loss to Periera was his first defeat since New Year's Eve 2015. That was in a Rizin Grand Prix and came against Muhammed "King Mo" Lawal. He fought well in the Pereira bout and gave the now champion issues at times. I expect Jiri to remain near the top of a thin light heavyweight division for quite a while.
Rakic is coming off a long layoff and a serious injury. He was engaged in a tight battle with Jan Blachowicz in May 2022, at which point he tore his ACL early in Round 3. Rakic has been sidelined ever since. His 6-2 UFC record is strong, but those half-dozen victories have come against Thiago Santos, Anthony Smith, Jimi Manuwa, Devin Clark, Justin Ledet and Francimar Barroso. The power is clearly legitimate, but it's not as if we have evidence of Rakic defeating better competition.
This has the look of a back-and-forth, stand-up brawl. Both men can wrestle, slightly, in a pinch, but it's most definitely not the strength of either.
Prochazka can be extremely aggressive, bordering on reckless, on the feet at times. He has supreme confidence in his power and durability. The first part is entirely understandable. He hits like a truck. But the latter has been an issue at times. Three of Jiri's four career defeats have come via knockout. I would say Rakic does a bit better job of picking his spots and defending himself in striking exchanges. Of course, Prochacka has the power to make that a moot point, regardless.
This fight is the very definition of a coin flip, as both the Vegas odds and DK salaries indicate. I see very little difference between the two from a skill set standpoint, but all Rakic's time on the sidelines worries me. It's been almost two years since he's fought. If he's hesitant or rusty is even the slightest, Prochazka has the power to turn his lights out in an instant. I wouldn't be the list bit surprised if either man won, but I'll bet on the healthy guy, especially when he's the slighter cheaper option.
THE PICK: Prochazka
Other Bouts
Featherweight
Calvin Kattar (23-7-0) v. Aljamain Sterling (23-4-0)
DK Salaries: Kattar ($7,800), Sterling ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Kattar (+135), Sterling (-165)
THE PICK: Sterling
Women's Bantamweight
Holly Holm (15-6-0, 1NC) v. Kayla Harrison (16-1-0)
DK Salaries: Holm ($6,900), Harrison ($9,300)
Vegas Odds: Holm (+340), Harrison (-440)
THE PICK: Harrison
Featherweight
Sodiq Yusuff (13-4-0) v. Diego Lopes (23-6-0)
DK Salaries: Yusuff ($7,700), Lopes ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Yusuff (+125), Lopes (-150)
THE PICK: Lopes
Lightweight
Jalin Turner (14-7-0) v. Renato Moicano (18-5-1)
DK Salaries: Turner ($8,900), Moicano ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Turner (-240), Moicano (+195)
THE PICK: Turner
Women's Strawweight
Jessica Andrade (25-12-0) v. Marina Rodriguez (17-3-2)
DK Salaries: Andrade ($8,100), Rodriguez ($8,100)
Vegas Odds: Andrade (-135), Rodriguez (+115)
THE PICK: Rodriguez
Lightweight
Bobby Green (31-15-1, 1NC) v. Jim Miller (37-17-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Green ($8,600), Miller ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Green (-180), Miller (+150)
THE PICK: Green
Bantamweight
Deiveson Figueiredo (22-3-1) v. Cody Garbrandt (14-5-0)
DK Salaries: Figueiredo ($9,100), Garbrandt ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Figueiredo (-305), Garbrandt (+245)
THE PICK: Figueiredo
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC Vegas 90 with more MMA betting content.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
