This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC 298 takes place Saturday, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $300k UFC 2024 Opening Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Featherweight Championship
(C) Alexander Volkanovski (26-3-0) v. Ilia Topuria (14-0-0)
DK Salaries: Volkanovski ($8,200), Topuria ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Volkanovski (-135), Topuria (+115)
The unquestioned top featherweight in the world, Volkanovski will be seeking the sixth defense of his 145-pound title and looking for his 24th straight victory at 145 pounds. Of course, that doesn't tell the whole story. Volk has actually lost two of his last three fights. Both came against Islam Makhachev, and both were for the UFC Lightweight Championship. He was super competitive in the first fight between the two, but took the second on very short notice and looked rusty. Ever the professional, I'd be shocked if either of those performances impacted his effort here in the least.
That said, the champion better be ready to go, because he's going up against an undefeated, 27-year-old, stone-cold killer. Topuria obviously doesn't have the resume of Volkanovski, but he's been unstoppable since arriving on the scene in October 2020. He won three straight fights at lightweight to begin his time with the company. Topuria dropped down to featherweight in December 2022 and has since proceeded to submit Bryce Mitchell and take a unanimous decision from Josh Emmett. In the Emmett fight, Ilia finished with a 171-89 edge in total strikes landed and connected on all three of his takedown attempts. Anyone who thinks Topuria isn't a legitimate threat to Volkanovski's throne hasn't been paying attention.
We have seen Volk make some of the best featherweights of all time appear mortal time and time again. He repeatedly handled the massive length of Max Holloway without issue. He shut down the grappling of Brian Ortega with no problems. The issue in this fight is that Topuria is an all-around threat. There isn't a single area in which the guy doesn't excel.
Ilia's 2.19 takedowns landed are impressive, but the more impressive number is the fact he lands 56 percent of his attempts. Now, I certainly don't expect him to be able to take the champion down at will and grind on him for 25 minutes, but one well-placed shot here and there could steal a round in what projects to be a close fight. It's worth noting Volk has allowed just two takedowns total in 145-pound fights dating back to May 2019.
Topuria is nearly a decade younger and the better athlete, but Volkanovski is one of the strongest pound-for-pound fighters in the world and a master at making adjustments for any given opponent.
Volk is averaging 6.19 significant strikes landed per minute. You see a number that high once in a while when a guy just enters the company and has maybe a couple fights under his belt, but Alex has been with the UFC more than seven years now. He's consistently performed at a top-tier level during his entire run.
I like Topuria here probably more than most, but I still can't pick him. Like prime Ronda Rousey, Jon Jones or Demetrious Johnson, Volkanovski's past body of work makes him the choice in all featherweight matchups until he is finally dethroned. Give me the champ to retain in a competitive, back-and-forth decision.
UFC 298 PICK: Volkanovski
Co-Main Event - Middleweight
Robert Whittaker (25-7-0) v. Paulo Costa (14-2-0)
DK Salaries: Whittaker ($9,000), Costa ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Whittaker (-225), Costa (+185)
I was under the impression Whittaker was the second-best middleweight in the world for quite a while, but his knockout loss to Dricus du Plessis last July was crushing and severely impacts his ability to get back to the top of the mountain at 185 pounds. Israel Adesanya always seemed like a bad matchup for Rob, but Dricus seemed like a great one, and Whittaker still got torched. To say he needs a rebound effort here is a massive understatement.
We haven't seen Costa since August 2022. He retired Luke Rockhold that night in what was one of the weirdest fights you will ever see. Since then, Costa had been booked against Whittaker, Ikram Aliskerov and Khamzat Chimaev, only to see each fight fall apart for one reason or another. The Rockhold victory is Costa's lone win dating back to August 2019. Set to turn 33 years of age in April, he's running out of time.
Again, this seems like Whittaker's fight to lose. Costa certainly has an edge in terms of pure power, but his advantages would seem to end right there. Rob is more technical, has much better cardio, and up until the recent du Plessis fight, had never really had any durability issues.
I find it very difficult to believe Costa would be able to win a decision here. He's barely fought in the past few years, has had countless injuries, and his best UFC wins are over Uriah Hall and Yoel Romero. Could he come in and starch Rob in an instant? Sure, but I'd definitely bet against it.
Costa was able to get by Rockhold because Luke is pushing 40 years old and a one-dimensional kickboxer at this stage of his career. He landed a couple takedowns and racked up 5:28 worth of control time. Whittaker is a highly underrated wrestler. He doesn't need to do anything offensively in terms of grappling, he just needs to remain upright in order to win here.
I admit to being somewhat concerned with Rob, but I'm not pushing the panic button. He's still a top-five middleweight, and I think he'll rebound and show that here. If he somehow gets blasted by Costa, we'll be looking at a five-alarm fire, however.
UFC 298 PICK: Whittaker
Welterweight
Geoff Neal (15-5-0) v. Ian Garry (13-0-0)
DK Salaries: Neal ($7,100), Garry ($9,100)
Vegas Odds: Neal (+185), Garry (-225)
The UFC took it easy with Garry early in his run with the company, but the company has gradually and significantly pushed him of late. He knocked out Daniel Rodriguez in less than three minutes last May and dominated Neil Magny in a unanimous decision win a little over three months later. The most difficult test to date, against Neal, awaits.
Neal is a perfectly competent opponent despite the fact he's 2-3 in his past five bouts. The losses were to Shavkat Rakhmonov (totally understandable) via submission, along with Magny and Stephen Thompson via unanimous decision. The wins were over Vicente Luque via unanimous decision and Santiago Ponzinnibio via split decision. Neal, at age 33, is another guy running out of time in a loaded division.
Garry is not a popular fella, but he's a good fighter. His upside is higher than I thought. He has power and fires off a ton of volume on the feet, as evidenced by his 6.67 significant strikes landed per minute. That said, Neal is not the guy you want to go blow-for-blow with. His power is by far his greatest attribute, and I'm sure Geoff would be totally thrilled if Garry engages him in the slugfest he is seeking.
I dug around in an attempt to find some things that might favor Neal in this fight and didn't come up with much. The UFC is surely more invested in Garry over the long term than Geoff, and while Neal represents a solid, "name" opponent, Ian is going to have the edge here.
Ian is a massive welterweight. He's a legitimate 6-foot-3. He's giving up an inch in reach to Neal, but his long frame has spelled trouble for countless opponents thus far. I thought Magny might be able to wall-and-stall Garry, but Ian quickly eliminated that possibility. His fight IQ is more advanced than I originally gave him credit for.
Neal's power is legitimate and his salary is low, so I have no problems rostering him as a punt play in DK lineups. Maybe this turns into a brawl, Garry doesn't get his head off the center line and Neal cracks him with one shot. It's more than possible. What's more likely is that Garry, with his long frame is able to keep Geoff on the outside, and control the striking exchanges between the two. I might feel a little better about Neal if he had any wrestling game to speak of, but he's averaging only 0.51 takedowns per 15 minutes.
UFC 298 PICK: Garry
Bantamweight
Henry Cejudo (16-3-0) v. Merab Dvalishvili (16-4-0)
DK Salaries: Cejudo ($7,600), Dvalishvili ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Cejudo (+180), Dvalishvili (-270)
Having just turned 37 years of age, Cejudo will be fighting for the second time since May 2020. He returned in May 2023 following a three-year layoff and looked good in dropping a split decision to Aljamain Sterling in a UFC Bantaweight Championship fight. He's gets one of Aljo's best friends and training partners in Dvalishvili here.
Merab has won nine in a row on the heels of dropping his first two fights with the company. His most recent fight was a five-round whitewashing of Petr Yan in a main event last March. Merab attempted 49 (!!!!) takedowns in that fight, landing 11 of them. It was widely believe Yan would have a significant edge in the stand-up, but Dvalishvili closed with a 202-87 edge in total strikes landed. If Merab takes care of Cejudo without issue, his next fight should be for the title.
In terms of grappling, Cejudo fought Sterling to fairly even terms. Henry connected on 3-of-8 takedown attempts for 5:06 worth of control time, while the now-former champ completed 4-of-15 attempts for 4:00 of time. Sterling won the total strike battle by a 186-143 count. I thought Aljo clearly won, but it was a close, competitive fight and a strong showing from Henry given his advanced age and all the time off.
My first thought it that this isn't a great matchup for Cejudo. Merab has literally the best gas tank in the entire sport. The man simply doesn't get tired. We saw the pace he pushed against Yan in a five-round fight. Now imagine what he can do against Henry in a 15-minute bout.
Some wrestlers get away from the takedown if their first few attempts fail. Not Merab. It's a mortal lock he will keep pressuring his opposition in hopes of dragging them to the mat and grinding them to dust. Dvalishvili is a potential future champion at 135 pounds based on the cardio, pace and wrestling game alone. If any of the striking advancements we saw in the Yan fight are here to stay, it's over.
Henry has gotten himself into much better shape over the years, and his cardio looked good against Sterling, but this is another animal entirely. I'm tempted to say the fact this fight is three rounds favors Cejudo in some sense simply because nobody can match Merab's pace over five rounds, but I doubt Henry can match the pace over three rounds, either.
Between his advanced age, lack of activity and the quality opponent he is facing, I think Cejudo is in for a long night. Merab looks like a value play given his DK salary and the Vegas odds. I'm struggling to find a clear path to victory for Henry. Maybe he remains upright with more consistency than we think, but are we sure he's going to dominate the striking exchanges between the two after what Merab did in the Yan fight? Too many unknowns on the Cejudo side.
UFC 298 PICK: Dvalishvili
Middleweight
Anthony Hernandez (11-2-0, 1NC) v. Roman Kopylov (12-2-0)
DK Salaries: Hernandez ($8,800), Kopylov ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Hernandez (-205), Kopylov (+160)
Hernandez was due to face Ikram Aliskerov here before the latter withdrew about a month before the event and Kopylov stepped in. This is a very good fight and quite the contrast in styles.
Kopylov looked like an immediate release candidate following back-to-back losses to Karl Roberson (submission) and Albert Duraev (unanimous decision) to begin his UFC run, but he's won four straight since, all via knockout. The competition level faced hasn't been great (Alessio di Chirico, Punahele Soriano, Claudio Ribeiro, Josh Fremd) and Kopylov struggles to generate secondary offense but the power is very clearly legitimate.
Hernandez is unquestionably Kopylov's most difficult opponent to date. "Fluffy" has won four in a row and five of six, with the only setback during that span being a knockout at the hands of Kevin Holland in May 2020. I'd argue three of Hernandez's last four opponents -- Marc-Andre Barriault, Edmen Shahbazyan, Rodolfo Vieira -- are better than anyone Kopylov has seen to date. Anthony also has a win over Brendan Allen in a title fight back in their LFA days in early 2018.
Neither man will have a size edge here. Both are 6-0 with the exact same 75-inch reach.
The biggest question in this fight will be whether or not Kopylov will be able to remain upright. He's been exceptional at it to date, stuffing 92 percent of the takedowns sent his way, but Hernandez averages an insane 6.79 takedowns per 15 minutes while connecting on a ridiculous 57 percent of his tries. To give you an idea the type of roll Anthony is on, he has 20 successful takedowns in his last three fights. He got Shahbazyan six times and Barriault and Fremd eight times apiece. None of those guys are noted grapplers, but that doesn't diminish what was three straight dominant wrestling performances from Hernandez.
Offensively, Kopylov is a brawler. He'll stand and bang with his opposition and hope his power wins out in the end. He absolutely hits harder than Hernandez and has never been knocked out in 14 pro fights, so I like his chances if he is able to stuff the takedowns that will undoubtedly come his way.
We haven't seen Roman on the mat much, but my guess is Hernandez will school him if the fight ends up there. He transitions very well and has all sorts of submissions in his arsenal. Anthony's rear-naked choke of mat wiz Vieira back in February 2021 was voted Submission of the Year by multiple publications.
We saw almost this exact same scenario play out a week ago when Vieira fought Armen Petrosyan. Rodolfo got a couple early takedowns, got this fight to the mat and eventually choked out Petrosyan before the latter could deploy any of his striking skills. I'm not saying Kopylov is going to be overwhelmed to that extent, but Hernandez's advanced ground game combined with the fact Roman has been going up against low-end competition makes Anthony the pick until we see Kopylov knock off a quality opponent.
UFC 298 PICK: Hernandez
Other Bouts
Women's Strawweight
Amanda Lemos (13-3-1) v. Mackenzie Dern (13-4-0)
DK Salaries: Lemos ($8,300), Dern ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Lemos (-130), Dern (+110)
UFC 298 PICK: Lemos
Heavyweight
Marcos Rogerio de Lima (21-10-1) v. Justin Tafa (7-3-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Rogerio de Lima ($8,500), Tafa ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Rogerio de Lima (-140), Tafa (+120)
UFC 298 PICK: Tafa
Bantamweight
Rinya Nakamura (8-0-0) v. Carlos Vera (11-3-0)
DK Salaries: Nakamura ($9,600), Vera ($6,600)
Vegas Odds: Nakamura (-1350), Vera (+800)
UFC 298 PICK: Nakamura
Light Heavyweight
Zhang Mingyang (16-6-0) v. Brendson Ribeiro (15-5-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Zhang ($8,400), Ribeiro ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Zhang (-130), Ribeiro (+110)
UFC 298 PICK: Ribeiro
Welterweight
Josh Quinlan (6-1-0, 1NC) v. Danny Barlow (7-0-0)
DK Salaries: Quinlan ($7,500), Barlow ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Quinlan (+165), Barlow (-200)
UFC 298 PICK: Barlow
Welterweight
Oban Elliott (9-2-0) v. Val Woodburn (7-1-0)
DK Salaries: Elliott ($9,300), Woodburn ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Elliott (-305), Woodburn (+245)
UFC 298 PICK: Elliott
Women's Flyweight
Andrea Lee (13-8-0) v. Miranda Maverick (14-5-0)
DK Salaries: Lee ($7,300), Maverick ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Lee (+150), Maverick (-180)
UFC 298 PICK: Maverick
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC 298 with more MMA betting content.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
