This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC 293 takes place Saturday, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $750k UFC Throwdown with $200k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Middleweight Championship
(C) Israel Adesanya (24-2-0) v. Sean Strickland (27-5-0)
DK Salaries: Adesanya ($9,700), Strickland ($6,500)
Vegas Odds: Adesanya (-650), Strickland (+470)
Odds to Finish: -150
The UFC clearly wanted to book Adesanya against the surging Dricus Du Plessis here, but the latter wasn't medically ready to go for this event, and the company wanted Izzy to headline the show. Thus, Strickland gets his opportunity.
Adesanya regained his UFC Middleweight Championship this past April, knocking out Alex Pereira about five months after losing his belt to him at Madison Square Garden. It was another fairly even fight, with Pereira having a 49-41 edge in total strikes landed at the time of the stoppage. It's clear that a big, physical opponent such as Alex wasn't the best stylistic matchup for Izzy. This one against Strickland appears much more favorable.
Strickland has won back-to-back fights and seven of nine. His two defeats in that stretch were a knockout to Pereira and a split decision defeat to Jared Cannonier which he easily could have won. Strickland has quietly done an excellent job of racking up wins despite a very limited offensive skill set. He'll be 33 years of age next February, and I'd absolutely be willing to wager this will be his only opportunity at UFC gold.
The bottom line is that I have zero idea how Strickland is going to generate consistent offense in this fight. He's a big guy, but he's giving up four inches in height and three inches in reach to Adesanya. Sean does an excellent job of pushing forward and backing his opposition up, but he's a pure counter-puncher that works behind his jab and throws zero kicks. Izzy is the last guy in the world at 185 pounds that you want to try to beat on points over five rounds.
Simply put, Strickland is going to have to generate some secondary means of offense we have seen from him in the past to win this fight. Maybe he can do so by grappling more than usual. He only averages one takedown per 15 minutes, but he connects on 60 percent of his tries -- an excellent number. Maybe he can pin Izzy down for long stretches at a time.
Then, toss in the fact one of these man had to travel halfway around the world to get to the arena. Hint: it's not Adesanya.
Before the two Pereira fights, there was a long stretch of Izzy bouts in which Adesanya won easily by simply picking apart his opposition on the feet with volume. I think that's what's going to happen here against Strickland.
Give me the champ in a runaway decision.
THE PICK: Adesanya
Co-Main Event - Heavyweight
Tai Tuivasa (15-5-0) v. Alexander Volkov (36-10-0)
DK Salaries: Tuivasa ($7,400), Volkov ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Tuivasa (+205), Volkov (-250)
Odds to Finish: -330
Speaking to the lack of depth on this card, Tuivasa is getting a co-main event spot despite having lost back-to-back fights via knockout. Of course, he had won five in a row via KO prior to this recent skid. The story regarding Tai hasn't changed and will not change as long as he's a member of the UFC roster. He's a one-dimensional brawler with power who is going in there to try and put his opponent to sleep before he gets slept. Simple enough.
Volkov enters having won back-to-back fights via knockout over Alexandr Romanov and Jair Rozenstruik. A former Bellator Heavyweight Champion, Volkov has essentially been as advertised since joining the UFC in November 2016. He's volume over power on the feet, but can finish guys. Volkov can also wrestle in a pinch, something Tuivasa cannot, which would be his clearest and cleanest path to a win here if he doesn't want to put himself in danger on the feet.
The gap in technical skill between these two on the feet is as wide as the Pacific Ocean. It's easier said than done, but if Volkov is able to avoid that one big shot from Tuivasa, I don't see how he loses. Any potential Tai win will have to come via knockout.
Then we have the size difference between the two. Volkov is huge at 6-foot-7. He's going to enter with a five inch edge in both height and reach. He needs to do everything necessary to fight at a distance at which he can hit Tuivasa and his opponent can not return fire.
Tuivasa is going to get a boost from the crowd, but I still don't see how you can pick him to win. The technical gap between the two, as I mentioned earlier, is massive, plus with just two knockout defeats in nearly 50 professional fights, I wouldn't exactly say Volkov has durability issues.
It could all go bad with one massive Tuivasa punch, but play the odds and don't overthink this one.
THE PICK: Volkov
Heavyweight
Justin Tafa (6-3-0, 1NC) v. Austen Lane (12-3-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Tafa ($9,000), Lane ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Tafa (-215), Lane (+180)
Odds to Finish: -800
Tafa and Lane fought in Jacksonville in late-June, at which point an accidental eye poke from Lane 29 seconds into the fight left Tafa unable to continue and resulted in a no-contest.
Everything I just wrote about Tuivasa from a technical standpoint applies to Tafa, with the main difference between the two being Tai has faced better competition. Justin is 3-3 in the UFC, with four of the six fights (3 wins, 1 loss) ending via knockout. He'll be 30 years of age this coming December, so I don't expect much in terms of improvements or a change in fighting style.
Lane, who will be 36 years of age in November, will be seeking his first UFC result. He earned his opportunity with a September 2022 win on Dana White's Contender Series. The no-contest against Tafa was his first official fight with the company. Lane first appeared in the Contender Series in June 2018, where he was knocked out by Greg Hardy in 57 seconds.
What Lane does bring to the table (that Tafa does not) is high-end athleticism. He had stints with four different NFL teams and was a former fifth-round pick of the Jaguars in 2010 out of Murray State. The athleticism could easily be waning given Lane's advanced age, but he should still be able to lap Tafa in that department.
I can't remember a fight this high up a pay-per-view card that I had less feel for. The only thing I'm confident of is that it will end quickly. Other than that, no result would surprise me.
I took Lane the first time around and see no real reason to deviate from that, especially given the salary relief he provides, although Tafa is going to be a heavy crowd favorite this time around.
Flip a coin.
UFC 293 PICK: Lane
Flyweight
Manel Kape (18-6-0) v. Felipe dos Santos (7-0-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Kape ($9,300), Dos Santos ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Kape (-395), Dos Santos (+310)
Odds to Finish: -225
Kape was due to fight Kai Kara-France here in what would have been one of the better fights on the entire card before. Unfortunately, the latter suffered a concussion in training a few weeks ago and was forced to withdraw, ultimately getting replaced by dos Santos.
A former long-time member of the Rizin roster, Kape has been up and down during his UFC run. He began with back-to-back decision defeats to (now UFC Flyweight Champion) Alexandre Pantoja (unanimous) and Matheus Nicolau (split), but has since rebounded to earn three straight wins over Ode Osbourne, Zhalgas Zhumagulov and David Dvorak. The Osbourne and Zhumagulov victories were via knockout. Not yet 30 years of age and competing in a thin division, I like Kape's chances of remaining relevant for quite a while.
I won't pretend to know a ton about dos Santos. He's young -- turning just 23 years of age the day after this event will take place -- and is undefeated fighting guys no one has ever heard of on the Brazilian regional scene. He has two career wins via knockout and three via submission. Simply put, the UFC needed Kape on this card in some form or fashion following the KKF withdrawal, and dos Santos worked out from a logistical standpoint. I really don't have much in the way of expectations beyond that.
As one would expect given how late this fight was put together, Kape finds himself a massive favorite according to the Vegas odds and is also the third-highest priced fighter on the slate from a DK perspective.
I'd be totally floored if dos Santos is highly owned in DFS, meaning he's not a bad play in large-field tournaments if you have a few bucks you're comfortable with never seeing again. Maybe he's actually good.
The most likely scenario, however, is that Kape rolls through him without issue, and perhaps the UFC goes about re-booking him and KKF.
UFC 293 PICK: Kape
Light Heavyweight
Tyson Pedro (9-4-0) v. Anton Turkalj (8-2-0)
DK Salaries: Pedro ($8,000), Turkalj ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Pedro (-115), Turkalj (-105)
Odds to Finish: -265
Pedro started his UFC career on fire, picking up back-to-back stoppage wins over Khalil Rountree and Paul Craig, but it's all fallen apart since. His 3-4 in his past seven fights, including a 3.5-year break from December 2018 to April 2022. I have zero idea what to make of him moving forward, even in a thin light heavyweight division.
Recent struggles aside, Pedro is still in far better shape than Turkalj, who has lost each of his first two official fights with the UFC (Jailton Almeida, Vitor Petrino) and will almost certainly be fighting for his job on Saturday. Turkalj earned a reputation as a finisher prior to his arrival in the company, and I'm giving him a full pass for the Almeida defeat, but I'm still not convinced there's much, if any, upside here.
It's worth noting Turkalj actually has a clear path to victory in this fight. He landed five takedowns in the Petrino loss and 11 takedowns in his Contender Series win. Pedro's 52 percent takedown defense is poor, so Anton could try to just grind his way to the finish line.
My main concern regarding Pedro at this point is the inactivity. He might be good, he might not, but he's fought just nine times since his November 2016 debut, and I think that has all but torpedoed any chance we may have had of getting an accurate read on his long-term potential.
The most likely outcome is that he gets a huge boost from the home crowd and comes out and knocks Turkalj into next week, but I don't see how you can say that with any shred of confidence, which pretty much sums up this card as a whole.
I'll back him in hopes the crowd support and Turkalj not being all that great will be enough to get Pedro the win, but I'd be far from shocked if he's dominated on the mat for 15 minutes and drops a boring decision.
UFC 293 PICK: Pedro
OTHER BOUTS
Light Heavyweight
Carlos Ulberg (9-1-0) v. Da Woon Jung (15-4-1)
DK Salaries: Ulberg ($9,200), Jung ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Ulberg (-285), Jung (+220)
Odds to Finish: -360
UFC 293 PICK: Ulberg
Featherweight
Jack Jenkins (12-2-0) v. Jose Mariscal (14-6-1)
DK Salaries: Jenkins ($8,700), Mariscal ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: Jenkins (-205), Mariscal (+170)
Odds to Finish: +125
UFC 293 PICK: Jenkins
Lightweight
Jamie Mullarkey (16-6-0) v. John Makdessi (18-8-0)
DK Salaries: Mullarkey ($8,900), Makdessi ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Mullarkey (-260), Makdessi (+210)
Odds to Finish: +145
UFC 293 PICK: Mullarkey
Lightweight
Nasrat Haqparast (14-5-0) v. Landon Quinones (5-1-1)
DK Salaries: Haqparast ($9,500), Quinones ($6,700)
Vegas Odds: Haqparast (-470), Quinones (+360)
Odds to Finish: -105
UFC 293 PICK: Haqparast
Welterweight
Blood Diamond (3-2-0) v. Charlie Radtke (7-3-0)
DK Salaries: Diamond ($7,100), Radtke ($9,100)
Vegas Odds: Diamond (+240), Radtke (-300)
Odds to Finish: -250
UFC 293 PICK: Radtke
Featherweight
Shane Young (13-7-0) v. Gabriel Miranda (16-6-0)
DK Salaries: Young ($8,600), Miranda ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Young (-170), Miranda (+140)
Odds to Finish: -180
UFC 293 PICK: Young
Welterweight
Kevin Jousset (8-2-0) v. Kiefer Crosbie (10-3-0)
DK Salaries: Jousset ($8,400), Crosbie ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Jousset (-155), Crosbie (+130)
Odds to Finish: -175
UFC 293 PICK: Crosbie
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC 293 with more MMA betting content.
DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
