NFL Game Previews: Breaking Down Week 1

Carolina at Denver (+3), 41.5 o/u – Thursday, 8:30 p.m. EDT

Comments: It's amazing how much has changed since these two teams clashed in the Super Bowl, isn't it? Peyton Manning's retired to a life of leisure as a TV pitchman, Brock Osweiler's in Houston, Josh Norman's in Washington, Malik Jackson's in Jacksonville (his contract was so big they named the city after him) and Ronnie Hillman's unemployed. Of those losses Norman's might actually be the biggest, believe it or not. The Panthers are starting two rookies at cornerback in his place, James Bradberry and Daryl Worley, and while the duo has some size it also seems ripe for exploitation by Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. That's assuming, of course, that Trevor Siemian can put the ball in their general vicinity, which isn't a given yet. ... The spread is understandable given the Broncos' QB situation, but history suggests you fade them at your peril. Super Bowl champs are 10-2 in the so-called "Kickoff Game" since the idea was introduced in 2002, with the Giants being the only home team to lose as champs (the Ravens lost in, ahem, Denver in 2013). ... The biggest injury concern for Carolina is with first round pick DT Vernon Butler, who'll play through a dislocated ring finger but was set for a reserve role on their stacked defensive front. Kelvin Benjamin will also be on a snap count due to conditioning concerns, leaving the door open for second-year WR Devin Funchess to assume a bigger role. The Broncos are a little more banged up with Vance Walker, Jackson's replacement on the D-line, out for the year with a torn ACL. Former Texan (and Gary Kubiak draft pick) Jared Crick is likely the next man up. They're also thin at tight end with Jeff Heuerman battling a hamstring injury, but Virgil Green was the likely starter anyway. ... These were arguably the two best defenses in the league last year and despite some big-name attrition in the offseason, Von Miller, Chris Harris, Luke Kuechly and Kawann Short (among others) will all be in uniform and loaded for bear Thursday, so don't expect a shootout. The most motivated player on the field will almost certainly be Cam Newton, though, who'll be looking to put his woeful Super Bowl performance (in case you forgot: 18-for-41, 265 yards, zero TDs and an INT, though he did run for 45 yards) firmly in his rear view. The Broncos beat Newton without getting much from their QB last time, but doing it twice in a row (more or less) seems a little too much to ask of any defense.

Predictions:Jonathan Stewart manages 40 rushing yards but gets topped by Newton who scampers for 60. Newton also throws for 270 yards and two TDs, to Funchess and Greg Olsen. C.J. Anderson rushes for 50 yards and adds 25 through the air, but it's rookie Devontae Booker who scores. Siemian has a rough debut, throwing for just 180 yards and getting picked off twice as the Panthers' rookie CBs step up. Panthers, 17-13

Tampa Bay (+3) at Atlanta, 47.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: My absolute favorite point spread is when the road team gets three points in Week 1. Normally, that would mean Vegas has decided that the two teams would be effectively equal on a neutral field and the three points represents home field advantage (or it would mean that's what Vegas wants you to think, depending on far down that rabbit hole you want to go). In Week 1 though, when we really have no information on how each team will perform, it's the Vegas equivalent of a shrug. It's their way of saying, "We really have no idea, so we'll just go with the default plus-three for the road team and see what happens."... What happened last year is that the Bucs won both games against the Falcons, albeit by a combined seven points. How they pulled that off is a bit of a mystery as both Julio Jones (20 catches for 255 yards and a TD) and Devonta Freeman (135 rushing yards and 99 receiving yards) got theirs, but Jameis Winston rushing for a score in each game certainly helped. Tampa did more to shore up their defense in the offseason, signing Brent Grimes away from Miami and drafting Noah Spence to bolster the pass rush, but they needed the help – the Bucs finished second-last in the NFL last year in QB rating allowed. Atlanta added player/coach Dwight Freeney to spice up a pass rush that managed a league-low 19 sacks last season, but his biggest impact could come in how he helps in Vic Beasley's development. Not that Freeney's washed by any means, as he managed eight sacks in 11 games last season for Arizona. Both teams feature largely the same offensive talent, although the Falcons swapped Roddy White out for a younger model in Mohamed Sanu and signed former Brown center Alex Mack to anchor their o-line. ... Vincent Jackson and strongside linebacker Daryl Smith both missed time in the preseason for Tampa with undisclosed injuries, while Jones has been nursing an ankle injury for Atlanta, but at this point none of them are expected to miss the opener.

Predictions: Doug Martin bangs out 80 yards and a score. Winston throws for 240 yards and TDs to Mike Evans, who tops 100 receiving yards, and Austin Seferian-Jenkins. Freeman, the Rodney Dangerfield of the 2016 fantasy season, piles up 120 combined yards and a touchdown while Matt Ryan throws for 280 yards and two TDs to Jones, who hauls in 130 yards. Second round pick Roberto Aguayo makes himself an immediate hero in Tampa Bay with a late field goal. Buccaneers, 27-24

Minnesota at Tennessee (+2), 41.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: The Sam Bradford Era in Minnesota begins, well, sometime soon, as Mike Zimmer continues to be coy about whether the former Ram and Eagle or veteran backup Shaun Hill gets the start in Week 1. While Bradford's a definite upgrade over Hill, or maybe even Teddy Bridgewater for that matter, he still won't be asked to do too much on a team geared to win on the strength of its defense and Adrian Peterson's 31-year-old legs. On the other hand, the Titans ranked in the bottom five against the pass last year by most key metrics and did little to address that deficiency in the offseason, bringing in only Steelers castoff Antwon Blake and third round safety Kevin Byard, so whoever does start at QB for the Vikings should be able to move the ball when called upon. ... Tennessee instead spent most of their resources improving the supporting cast around Marcus Mariota, which makes sense as a long term strategy. DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry head up the new-look backfield, with Murray apparently getting a full starter's workload to begin the year, while Rishard Matthews and late draft sleeper darling Tajae Sharpe provide Mariota with a couple of shiny new targets. Expect them to lean heavily on the running game though, both to take advantage of their two-headed monster and keep their franchise QB from too much punishment behind a young and suspect offensive line. ... Minnesota's injury concerns mainly hit their depth on offense as Jerick McKinnon (foot), Charles Johnson (quad) and Rhett Ellison (knee) are all less than 100 percent, although starting corner Xavier Rhodes (hamstring) is also hobbled. Kendall Wright (hamstring) is out for the Titans, leaving former Falcon WR Harry Douglas to handle slot duties.

Predictions: Peterson rumbles for 90 yards and a touchdown. Hill starts and throws for 200 yards and a TD to Kyle Rudolph. Murray gains 70 yards while Henry sees limited touches. Mariota throws for 220 yards and runs for 40, hitting Matthews for a score, but he also throws a pick six to Harrison Smith that ices the game for Minny. Vikings, 27-13

Cleveland (+4) at Philadelphia, 41.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: Call this one the Turmoil Bowl, as the two franchises try to move on from their respective Johnny Manziel and Chip Kelly disasters. The Browns at least are looking forward, completely remaking their front office with a strong analytical philosophy and giving Hue Jackson a shot as coach. The Eagles, by contrast, looked to their past for a fix, bringing in Andy Reid assistant Doug Pederson as head coach. (Of course it's Philly who will be starting a rookie QB in Carson Wentz while Cleveland attempts to rehabilitate Robert Griffin III's career but, as my grandpappy always said, never let the facts get in the way of a good narrative). ... These two secondaries got overshadowed last year by the incredible ineptitude of the Saints and Giants but each was terrible in its own right, with the Browns allowing the second-worst QB rating against in 2015 while the Eagles allowed the second-most passing TDs. Wentz's learning curve could prevent him from taking full advantage of the fact that Cleveland is mostly relying on Joe Haden to stay healthy for its improvement on the back end. The Eagles continued trying to build a secondary through free agency in the offseason, signing the oft-injured Leodis McKelvin away from the Bills and safety Rodney McLeod from the Rams, but they'll have to contend with first round pick speedster Corey Coleman running under Griffin's deep balls. Josh Gordon will need to serve out a four-game suspension before he can get back on the field. ... Both teams will be mostly healthy for Week 1, with Eagles DE Vince Curry being the biggest name on either injury report.

Predictions: Griffin has a big game in his return to the spotlight, throwing for 310 yards and touchdowns to Duke Johnson and Andrew Hawkins. Johnson leads the Browns' backfield with 110 combined yards as well. Wentz has a productive debut, throwing for 270 yards and TDs to Nelson Agholor and Zach Ertz, but he also gets picked off twice to keep the game close. Ryan Mathews runs for 90 yards and a touchdown. Eagles, 24-23

Cincinnati at N.Y. Jets (+2.5), 41.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: Were it not for Andy Dalton's broken thumb last year, it might well have been the Bengals who represented the AFC in the Super Bowl last year. The team seemingly had all the pieces in place for a title – stifling defense, strong backfield, game-breaking WR – but without Dalton to keep the offense humming they once again couldn't get over the hump, eventually falling apart against the Steelers in the postseason. Not that it was much of an issue before with players like Vontaze Burfict on the roster, but expect them to play with a massive chip on their shoulder this year. Burfict, incidentally, is suspended for the first three games of 2016 for his brutal cheap shot on Antonio Brown that put such a sour capper on what had been a promising season, but veteran LB Karlos Dansby should ably plug that hole in the Cinci defense and maybe lend a little stability and poise to the unit while he's at it. ... The Jets will have a key absence on their own stout defense with Sheldon Richardson suspended for a game. Leonard Williams (hip) was also a limited participant in practice this week. They nearly had an even bigger worry at QB, but finally ended their absurd offseason dance with Ryan Fitzpatrick in late July. They also swapped Chris Ivory out for Matt Forte in what should be a big upgrade for their backfield, unless Forte's massive workload over the years in Chicago finally catches up with him. He wouldn't be the first stud RB to flop with a new team late in their career and he won't be the last, but don't write his career obit just yet. The Jets should give him all the touches they feel that he can handle given Fitzgerald's lackluster efficiency stats last year (sub-60 percent completion rate and poor 6.9 YPA). ... Tyler Eifert (ankle) is out for the Bengals, but what else is new. That should leave more targets available behind A.J. Green for new secondary options Tyler Boyd and Brandon LaFell though. The worrying injury concern for the Jets is with their linebackers, as both David Harris (shoulder) and third round pick Jordan Jenkins (ankle) are banged up.

Predictions: Giovani Bernard takes advantage of the Jets' depleted LB corps, pulling down 130 combined receiving yards and a receiving score. Jeremy Hill manages just 40 yards but Dalton throws for 310 yards and a second TD to Green, who tops 100 receiving yards. Forte grinds out 60 yards while Fitzpatrick throws for 260 yards and a TD to Eric Decker. Bengals, 20-13

Oakland at New Orleans (+1), 51.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: Looking back on 2015, it's kind of hard to believe just how bad the Saints' defense was. Last in points allowed, yards per pass attempt allowed, yards per rush allowed... they nearly swept the board in every important defensive category, sometimes by a huge margin on 31st place, but hey, they did tie for 23rd in sacks. Defensive coordinator Rob Ryan was the fall guy for the abysmal showing, getting fired heading into the team's Week 11 bye, but they weren't really a whole lot better under Dennis Allen, surrendering 26.8 points a game (a field goal better than their full-season mark) for the remainder of the year that still would have put them 28th. The front office made a big effort to bring in more talent for Allen to work with, signing Nick Fairley and James Laurinaitis to stabilize the front seven and drafting Vonn Bell to bolster the secondary, but it still seems like a tall order to turn things around in one year and get the unit at least up to respectability. At least the offense is capable of holding up its end of the inevitable shootouts. ... That new-look Saints defense will face a tough test right away in the young Raiders offense. Derek Carr, Amari Cooper and Latavius Murray are all still in or headed into their primes, as are key members of the offensive line like left tackle Donald Penn. If the New Orleans defense hasn't taken a big step forward from 2015, those Oakland triplets could explode. ... The Raiders have no important injuries to report headed into Week 1. The big blow for the Saints is the loss of 12th overall pick Sheldon Rankins, on IR due to a broken leg, while rarely-healthy linebacker Dannell Ellerbe (hamstring) also seems iffy.

Predictions: Murray hits for 130 yards and two touchdowns, while Carr throws for 340 yards and TDs to Clive Walford and Cooper. Cooper and Michael Crabtree each top 100 receiving yards. Not to be outdone, Drew Brees throws for 380 yards and three scores (to Brandin Cooks, Coby Fleener and C.J. Spiller) with Cooks hauling into 150 yards. Mark Ingram also picks up 70 combined yards and a TD. Saints, 34-31

San Diego (+7) at Kansas City, 44.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: Based on how the 2015 edition of this rivalry went, seven points isn't anywhere near enough. The Chiefs won the season series by a combined score of 43-6, although most of that damage came in the first matchup with Kansas City winning the second game 10-3, and it's worth noting that both games came after Keenan Allen was lost for the year with a lacerated kidney. San Diego didn't do a whole lot in the offseason to make up that gap either, bringing in Travis Benjamin to complement Allen on the outside, but they're counting on Melvin Gordon to justify his draft status now that he's had a year to acclimate to the NFL and the offensive line to stay relatively intact instead of being gutted by injuries. Even if both those things are true in Week 1 though, it's hard to see much of a path to victory for the Bolts. ... Jamaal Charles (knee) seems unlikely to play but the Chiefs didn't need him in either win over the Chargers last year as Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West combined for a 5.5 YPC in the two meetings. I've already recycled my Charcandrick/Charmander joke from last year (I've earned the right to re-use that one as a level 30 Pokemon Go trainer) but if Ware gets the start he's the one who'll be plowing through the San Diego front line like a Snorlax with Hyper Beam – yeah, OK, I'll stop now. For you olds out there, replace that reference with "like a bulldozer through balsa wood". The Chargers' rush defense was 30th last year in YPC against and 29th in rushing TDs allowed and while former Seattle NT Brandon Mebane will definitely help staunch the bleeding up the middle, the unit may not see a real turnaround until third overall pick Joey Bosa is up to speed after his holdout. ... If there's a sliver of hope here for Philip Rivers, it's that the Chiefs' pass rush will be at less than full strength in Week 1. Justin Houston and Tamba Hali are both dealing with knee issues, with the former on the PUP list and the latter likely to play at less than 100 percent. The defense may also miss cornerback Sean Smith, who left in free agency for Oakland.

Predictions: Gordon is held to 40 yards and Danny Woodhead makes little impact out of the backfield. Rivers does throw for 250 yards and a touchdown to Allen. Ware pounds out 90 yards and a TD while Alex Smith throws for 220 yards, rushes for 40 more and hits Chris Conley for a score. Chiefs, 23-10

Buffalo (+3) at Baltimore, 44.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: Oh look, another three-point spread for the home team. Between Joe Flacco's return from a torn ACL and the possibility that Sammy Watkins has a slow start after offseason surgery to repair a Jones fracture in his foot (the same type of injury that ruined Dez Bryant's 2015 campaign), not to mention some key defensive absences for both teams that include Marcell Dareus (suspension) and Elvis Dumervil (foot), it's easy to see why Vegas might be having a hard time getting a read on this one. Flacco at least will have a nearly full complement of weapons available, as neither Breshad Perriman (knee) nor Steve Smith (Achilles) are on the injury report. ... The two teams both come into the season with reps as solid defensive units, but neither of them particularly earned it last year. The Bills were decent overall against the pass (10th in QB rating against) but allowed 30 passing TDs, putting them in the bottom 10, while their 21 sacks was second-worst. They also finished 25th in yards per carry allowed. The Ravens meanwhile were 10th in YPC allowed but 27th in QB rating against, also giving up 30 passing TDs while managing a league-low six INTs. Baltimore did sign Eric Weddle to help in the secondary, but Buffalo's attempt to upgrade their pass rush through the draft, Shaq Lawson, is still on the PUP list after shoulder surgery. ... It still amazes me that the commissioner's office hasn't punished the Ravens in some way for their release-and-catch roster shenanigans with Justin Forsett. Releasing a veteran to avoid having him take up a spot on your 53-man roster on cutdown day, only to sign him back on basically an identical contract a couple of days later once waivers have been processed, is the kind of transaction that will spread like wildfire if the league doesn't stamp it out and is so brilliantly devious I'm shocked Bill Belichick didn't think of it first. Regardless of how he wound up back on the roster though, Forsett will be the starting RB once again for the Ravens. Given his disappointing, injury-plagued 2015 though, Javorius Allen seems like a must-stash and if you dropped some FAAB coin on him after the initial news broke regarding Forsett's release, it may not end up being wasted budget by season's end.

Predictions: LeSean McCoy picks up 80 combined yards. Tyrod Taylor looks sharp, throwing for 270 yards and TDs to Watkins and Reggie Bush. Forsett gains just 50 yards but Allen punches in a TD. Flacco makes a triumphant return, throwing for 320 yards and touchdowns to Mike Wallace and Maxx Williams. Ravens, 27-17

Chicago (+6) at Houston, 44.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: There are overreactions, and then there are OVERreactions. Spending $72 million on a quarterback with a career QB rating of 86.0 after Brian Hoyer throws four INTs to wash you out of the playoffs might well qualify as the latter, but Brock Osweiler still potentially represents a fairly significant upgrade for the Texans at the position. This is a team that has gotten starts from Hoyer, Ryan Mallett, T.J. Yates, Brandon Weeden, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Case Keenum the last two seasons and still managed to post a winning record while doing so. If Osweiler can just be average, J.J. Watt and the defense can do the rest. ... The Bears, on the other hand, spent the offseason working on a defense that finished 26th in both QB rating against and YPC allowed. Most of their draft capital went into the pass rush and secondary while Danny Trevathan adds his Super Bowl 50 ring to their linebacking corps. The offense also got younger with Matt Forte now a Jet, leaving Jeremy Langford to get first crack at replacing him. That's easier said than done, though, as Chicago should well know based on its attempts to replace Brandon Marshall. Kevin White missed his entire rookie season with a shin injury and now heads into his sophomore campaign battling a hamstring issue. With an unproven defense and a dwindling supply of weapons for Jay Cutler, consider the Bears a dark horse contender for the first overall pick in the 2017 draft. ... Starting cornerback Kyle Fuller (knee) and fourth-round safety Deon Bush (hamstring) are also questionable for Chicago. Watt missed the entire preseason for the Texans after offseason back surgery but looks set to play in Week 1, while first-round pick Will Fuller has also been nursing a hamstring injury.

Predictions: Langford manages to pick up 60 yards. Cutler throws for 230 yards and finds Alshon Jeffery for a score. Lamar Miller makes a splash in his Houston debut, running for 110 yards and a TD. Osweiler is quietly efficient, throwing for 250 yards and a touchdown to DeAndre Hopkins, while Benardrick McKinney also returns a Cutler fumble for a TD. Texans, 27-7

Green Bay at Jacksonville (+5.5), 48.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: While Jordy Nelson's injury was considered the prime suspect in Aaron Rodgers' disappointing season the real culprit was the Packers' offensive line, particularly left tackle David Bakhtiari. Rodgers was sacked 46 times in 2015 after going down a combined 49 times the two seasons prior and while he is capable of doing damage when flushed out of the pocket, Green Bay simply asked too much of their franchise QB last year. Remarkably, the front office did nothing to improve the line in the offseason, simply counting on it being a down season for the unit. Confidence, or hubris? We'll soon find out. ... A Jaguars defense that finished 23rd in QB rating against, tied for 26th in INTs and tied for 20th in sacks wouldn't seem to pose much of a challenge for the vaunted Packers' offense, but there's reason to believe they'll be better in 2016. Malik Jackson bulks up the interior of the D-line, an area that was already a strength for Jacksonville (they finished fifth in YPC allowed last year), while 2015 first round pick Dante Fowler Jr. is healthy after a torn ACL scrubbed his rookie season. Fifth overall pick Jalen Ramsey also gives them a potentially dynamic presence in the secondary, while second round pick Myles Jack hasn't blown out his knee just yet. Head coach Gus Bradley and defensive coordinator Todd Wash are both from the Seahawks' coaching tree and know how to put together a dominant defense when they get the talent to work with. They might now have it. ... Chris Ivory is battling a calf injury and could see fewer touches than expected in Week 1 for the Jags.

Predictions: Eddie Lacy rumbles for 60 yards and a TD. Rodgers is held in check, throwing for 240 yards and a touchdown to Randall Cobb while getting sacked four times, including twice by Fowler. Neither Ivory nor T.J. Yeldon produce big numbers in a time share but Ivory does find the end zone. Blake Bortles throws for 280 yards and two TDs, with Allen Robinson getting 120 of the yards and both scores. Jaguars, 30-23

Miami (+10.5) at Seattle, 44.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

Comments: You can't fault the Dolphins for trying. A year after the massive Ndamukong Suh signing failed to turn the defense around they continued stockpiling name-brand talent, adding Mario Williams and Kiko Alonso to their front seven and Byron Maxwell to their secondary. They also lost Olivier Vernon, though, and while getting a healthy Cameron Wake back certainly helps, he is 34. Miami was 24th in QB rating against, tied for 25th in TD passes allowed and 27th in YPA allowed in 2015, and that doesn't seem likely to change much. Adam Gase's offense may need to start putting up numbers reminiscent of his stint as the Broncos' offensive coordinator if the team's going to keep pace. ... The big question for the Seahawks heading into this season is whether Marshawn Lynch's retirement and Russell Wilson's huge second half are going to transform their offensive philosophy, or whether they go back to a ground-and-pound attack with Thomas Rawls and Christine Michael. Betting on the latter is probably the prudent course, but if Pete Carroll does decide to keep the throttle open, the development of Tyler Lockett as a deep threat and even some contributions from Paul Richardson, who's healthy and showed flashes in the preseason, will be crucial. Doug Baldwin remains entrenched as Wilson's go-to first option but Jermaine Kearse isn't a difference-maker and Jimmy Graham doesn't seem likely to regain his former Saints glory. If the youngsters step up, the Hawks will be that much more comfortable letting Wilson air it out. ... DeVante Parker (hamstring) is looking increasingly iffy for Week 1, which could push Kenny Stills into a bigger role. Rawls may also be slowed down by an illness but his ankle no longer appears to be a concern.

Predictions: Adrian Foster doesn't make to halftime before getting banged up and Jay Ajayi leads the team with 50 rushing yards. Ryan Tannehill throws for 290 yards and a TD to Stills but gets picked off twice. Rawls picks up 80 combined yards and a score while Michael also finds the end zone. Wilson lights up the Fish, throwing for 330 yards and touchdowns to Baldwin, Lockett and Luke Willson while Lockett also returns a kick to the house in a total rout. Seahawks, 45-10

N.Y. Giants at Dallas (PK), 46.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

Comments: You'll have to forgive me if I'm not on the Dak Prescott bandwagon just yet. Sure, he looked fantastic in the preseason after a storied college career and yes, the Cowboys really need him to be good with Tony Romo seemingly one more hit away from retirement, but there's a reason Prescott fell to the fourth round of the draft and it's not that NFL front offices are bad at their jobs. The issues with accuracy and decision-making that stood out on his game tape leading up to the draft are still there and while he might well develop into a star, I just don't think it'll happen overnight. Expect Dallas to lean very heavily on Ezekiel Elliott in the early going once defenses start attacking Prescott rather than trotting out vanilla coverages. ... On the other hand, a vanilla preseason coverage scheme was probably still tougher to beat than what the Giants were using last year. They were a bottom 10 team in completion percentage allowed, YPA allowed and TD passes allowed and managed only 23 sacks, third-worst in the league. In fine New York tradition they threw money at the problem in the offseason, signing DE Olivier Vernon and CB Janoris Jenkins to huge deals, but the health and effectiveness of Jason Pierre-Paul will still be the biggest factor in any turnaround. If he can bring down the QB with regularity, everything else falls into place. If the pass rush is stagnant again, expect more pinball numbers from opposition passing games. ... The Giants are mainly healthy headed into Week 1. Romo's back injury is the big health issue for the Cowboys but fourth round pick Charles Tapper also has back issues, further weakening a front seven that was already missing DeMarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory due to suspensions. Eli Manning could have a very comfortable Sunday afternoon in the pocket.

Predictions: Rashad Jennings gains 80 combined yards and scores. Manning throws for 310 yards and TDs to Odell Beckham and Dwayne Harris. Elliott has a strong debut, racking up 120 yards and a touchdown, but Prescott throws for just 200 yards and a TD to Cole Beasley while getting picked off twice. Giants, 27-17

Detroit (+3.5) at Indianapolis, 50.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

Comments: Life without Megatron begins for Matthew Stafford, but it really started last year when Jim Bob Cooter took over the offense and shifted its philosophy from "lob it deep and let Calvin get under it" to a more precise, West Coast-influenced attack that focused on shorter routes. Stafford's numbers rose nearly across the board when Cooter became coordinator after Week 9 and with Johnson out of the picture, it's entirely possible the Lions' offense will actually improve as targets like Golden Tate and Theo Riddick are much better-suited for what Cooter wants to do. Defenses have had all offseason to study and adjust of course, but don't write off Stafford or the Lions just because Johnson retired. ... Eyebrows got raised this week when Andrew Luck was a limited participant in practice and showed up on the injury report with a shoulder issue, but the Colts' coaching staff insists they're just being cautious with him and that he's fine. Hmm. Like the Lions, the Colts switched offensive coordinators mid-stream in 2015 but the results were very different, as Rob Chudzinski failed to light a fire under the unit. Despite the injuries, coaching turmoil and overall disappointing numbers though, Luck was still on a 34-TD pace over a full campaign last year, which is the kind of floor most QBs would love to have. ... Detroit comes into the game mostly healthy, but in addition to Luck's possible shoulder issues Vontae Davis (ankle) is out and linebacker Sio Moore (hamstring) is also hobbled, two big blows to a defense not known for its depth.

Predictions: Ameer Abdullah racks up 80 yards and a TD. Stafford comes out firing, throwing for 290 yards and TDs to Tate, Riddick and Eric Ebron. Frank Gore manages just 40 yards, while Luck throws for 320 yards and three touchdowns, two to Dwayne Allen and one to T.Y. Hilton in a comeback effort that falls short. Lions, 31-27

New England (+6) at Arizona, 47.0 o/u – Sunday, 8:30 p.m. EDT

Comments: Patriots fans may get a glimpse into the future this week with Jimmy Garoppolo replacing the suspended Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski potentially limited due to a hamstring injury. New England's offense is unpredictable at the best of times when it comes to who will be productive, but that's especially true headed into Week 1 this year. The Cardinals' defense was a top-10 unit against both the run and the pass in 2015, so the Pats' game plan might simply be to take what they can get. ... The Cards, on the other hand, were a model of stability in the offseason, returning all their key players and adding pass rusher Chandler Jones (who now gets to immediately face his former club, if you believe in the revenge game theory) to shore up their one weak spot. Sure, they got blown out by the Panthers in the NFC championship game last year but this is still a roster that came within one win of the Super Bowl and, unless Carson Palmer starts showing his age, should be right in the thick of the title hunt once again. ... They got little credit for it, but New England had a really good defense last season, statistically just a shade below Arizona's. Jones' loss will hurt, as will not having Rob Ninkovich for the first month of the season due to a suspension, but veteran Chris Long will help plug the hole at defensive end and if we've learned anything from watching Bill Belichick over the years, it's that no one on the Patriots' roster is irreplaceable. Maybe former Brown reclamation project Barkevious Mingo will be this season's surprise star.

Predictions: James White is the most productive member of the Pats' backfield, gaining 70 combined yards, but LeGarrette Blount bangs home a short touchdown. Garoppolo throws for 220 yards and a TD to Gronk. David Johnson goes off for 160 combined yards and a score while Palmer throws for 280 yards and TDs to Michael Floyd and Jaron Brown. Cardinals, 30-20

Pittsburgh at Washington (+3), 50.0 o/u – Monday, 7:10 p.m. EDT

Comments: All eyes will be on the Antonio Brown-Josh Norman matchup here, as it's arguably the best individual clash of the entire week. Brown is hard to contain, at least when Ben Roesthlisberger is healthy enough to get him the ball, but it can be done – Richard Sherman and the Seahawks held him to six catches for 51 yards in Week 12 last year, while Jimmy Smith and the Ravens kept him to seven catches for 61 yards in Week 16. Norman's absolutely in their league as a corner, but whether the rest of the Washington secondary can give him enough support to duplicate those efforts is another question. ... Remember how Le'Veon Bell was out to begin the 2015 season due to a suspension and DeAngelo Williams had a couple of huge games in his absence? Yeah. Washington's run defense was terrible last year, ranking second-worst in YPC allowed, and they did little in the offseason to improve it, so with Bell suspended once again it's time to cue up the Shirley Bassey as history could well be repeating in Week 1. ... Even if the Steelers' offense gets rolling though, Washington might be able to keep pace. Matt Jones could find it tough sledding against a run defense that ranked sixth last year in YPC allowed while giving up only six rushing TDs, the second-lowest total in the league, but Kirk Cousins has the weapons to match Big Ben toss for toss, particularly with Jordan Reed not banged up (yet).

Predictions: Williams runs for 90 yards and scores twice, while Roethlisberger throws for 280 yards and TDs to Brown, who hauls in 110 yards, and Sammie Coates. Jones gets bottled up, gaining only 50 yards. Cousins slings it for 310 yards and touchdowns to Reed and DeSean Jackson, but it's not enough. Steelers, 31-20

Los Angeles at San Francisco (+2.5), 43.5 o/u – Monday, 10:20 p.m. EDT

Comments: When you think about it, it's kind of absurd that the NFL didn't have a franchise in the country's second-largest city for two decades, but this is a league that resists change the way oil resists water, so maybe it's not that surprising. The Rams team returning to Hollywood does have echoes of its past glories though – the Aaron Donald-led D-line could be mistaken for the Fearsome Foursome if you squint really, really hard – and their new franchise quarterback is a dead ringer for Ryan Gosling, so the time was clearly right for a homecoming. Jared Goff won't be starting for a while though, as Case Keenum will mind the store until Goff is ready, so Todd Gurley will need to do a spot-on Eric Dickerson impression if the Rams are going to get anywhere this year. ... The 49ers, on the other hand, are in Year One of the Chip Kelly Experience, which means lots of smoothies and a lot of roster pieces which may not quite fit his system. Blaine Gabbert will keep the starting job he won last season, at least for now, while Torrey Smith leads a pack of receivers cast off from other teams, including former Jet Jeremy Kerley and former Raider Rob Streater. The league caught on to Kelly's shenanigans pretty quickly in Philly though and it's doubtful anyone's forgotten how to handle his offense in the last six months. ... The Niners' front seven is in rough shape, with Glenn Dorsey (knee), Arik Armstead (shoulder) and Quinton Dial (knee) all less than 100 percent and Aaron Lynch suspended. The Rams, on the other hand, have no such issues, so Gabbert could be on the run even more than Chip wants him to be Monday night.

Predictions: Gurley runs for 140 yards and two touchdowns. Keenum isn't asked to do too much, throwing for just 180 yards. Carlos Hyde manages 60 combined yards while Gabbert runs for 50 yards and throws for 210, hitting Vance McDonald for a TD but also throwing two picks and getting sacked five times. Rams, 23-10

2015 regular-season record: 157-99, 137-111-8 ATS