NFL DFS Picks: Yahoo Plays and Strategy for Week 7 Sunday Baller

NFL DFS Picks: Yahoo Plays and Strategy for Week 7 Sunday Baller

This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Football series.

The Week 7 NFL main slate begins Sunday at 1 p.m. EDT and features 10 games. The Bears and Cowboys will be on bye, while the Thursday Night Football (Broncos-Saints), London Game (Patriots-Jaguars), Sunday Night Football (Jets-Steelers) and Monday Night Football (Ravens-Buccaneers and Chargers-Cardinals) participants play outside the main slate in Week 7. Yahoo will be running plenty of NFL DFS contests for Week 7, but the biggest is the Sunday Baller, which pays out a guaranteed prize pool of $115,000 to the top 1,493 finishers, including $8,000 to the winner. You can submit up to 150 entries into this contest, which has a maximum total capacity of 6,700 entries but will still run if it doesn't fill, potentially providing you with enhanced odds of winning, also known as overlay. 

Playing in guaranteed prize pool (GPP) contests is about chasing upside, while lineups geared towards head-to-head, 50/50 or double-up formats should prioritize high floors. The players you want to target for these different contest types aren't mutually exclusive, but winning a GPP tournament usually requires finding a hidden gem or going against the grain in a spot or two, while building a solid base of the same chalk plays you would use anywhere. Against-the-grain plays typically consist of big-name players in tough matchups or boom-or-bust types with uncertain roles.

Keep in mind that Yahoo DFS contests use 0.5 PPR scoring rather than full PPR, which lowers the comparative value of wide receivers and running backs (in that order) while especially affecting high-volume pass-catchers. Your NFL $115k Sunday Baller lineup will consist of one QB, two RBs, three WRs, one TE, one FLEX (RB/WR/TE) and one D/ST unit. Suggested Week 7 plays include a pair of pass catchers in line for heavy volume after having high-profile teammates traded away, as well as two top fantasy producers from recent seasons who could deliver vintage performances against generous defenses.

QUARTERBACK

Jordan Love, GB vs. HOU ($31): Love isn't living up to his four-year, $220 million contract so far with six interceptions in four games, but those turnovers hurt much less in fantasy, while coach Matt LaFleur's elite ability to scheme Green Bay's receivers open has helped Love toss multiple touchdown passes in each of his last 10 starts, including the playoffs. Houston's 12 passing TDs allowed are tied for second-most in the NFL, so Love's well positioned to extend that streak. The Packers have a few pass catchers dealing with injuries, but as long as his top target Jayden Reed (ankle) is able to go, the QB should be a strong play.

Honorable Mentions:

Jayden Daniels, WAS at CAR ($36); Sam Darnold, MIN vs. DET ($28); Andy Dalton, CAR at WAS ($24)

Against the Grainers:

Josh Allen, BUF vs. TEN ($33); Patrick Mahomes, KC at SF ($28); Jared Goff, DET at MIN ($28)

RUNNING BACK

Tony Pollard, TEN at BUF ($27): Tennessee's passing game is struggling mightily, but Pollard's thriving out of the backfield with at least 88 scrimmage yards in all but one game this season. He has actually been a beneficiary of the Titans' inability to push the ball downfield effectively, as Pollard's 16 receptions lead the team. Buffalo's defense tends to default to a two-deep shell, which protects against deeper passes but is more permissive to runs and checkdowns, so Pollard should be in for another busy afternoon, especially since Tennessee's 1B running back Tyjae Spears (hamstring) looks unlikely to suit up. The Bills have allowed a league-high 368 receiving yards per game to RBs, and their 664 yards allowed on the ground to the position are ninth-most in the NFL.

Austin Ekeler, WAS vs. CAR ($23): Ekeler has a decent touch floor in this game regardless of Brian Robinson's availability, but Robinson would have a higher ceiling if he dresses, while Jeremy McNichols scored three touchdowns in a two-game span before getting only two touches behind Ekeler last week. All things considered, Ekeler is the safest bet in Washington's backfield to capitalize on facing a dreadful Panthers run defense that has allowed the most rushing yards (803) and rushing TDs (12) to RBs, while no other team has given up more than eight. Washington has has excelled at running the ball in scoring range, with 13 rushing TDs as a team. Ekeler has only one of those, but he's likely to improve in that category considering he scored 30 rushing TDs over his last three seasons with the Chargers.

Honorable Mentions:

Kyren Williams, LAR vs. LV ($35); Chuba Hubbard, CAR at WAS ($28); Alexander Mattison, LV at LAR ($19)

Against the Grainers:

De'Von Achane, MIA at IND ($27); Tyrone Tracy, NYG vs. PHI ($17); Tyler Goodson, IND vs. MIA ($10)

WIDE RECEIVER

Diontae Johnson, CAR at WAS ($26): Washington's defense is tied for the most receiving TDs allowed to WRs (10) and is one of six teams to allow 1,000 yards to the position, but even those stats undersell just how bad the Commanders have been specifically against opposing No. 1 WRs. Johnson is undoubtedly the top option in Carolina's passing game, as he has 24 catches for 306 yards and three TDs on 43 targets in four games since Andy Dalton took over under center for the Panthers. With the underdog Panthers likely forced to play catch-up in this one, Johnson should get another heavy dose of targets from Dalton as Johnson looks to become the fourth WR to post at least 118 yards against Washington's vulnerable secondary.

Tyreek Hill, MIA at IND ($24): Hill has been held in check since a strong Week 1 performance, but this is a nice buy-low opportunity on the player who led the NFL with 1,799 receiving yards last season. He's facing a Colts defense that's allowing 389.5 scrimmage yards per game -- third-most in the NFL and the most among teams in the Sunday Baller slate. Miami's coming out of a bye, which means fill-in QB Tyler Huntley has had more opportunities to familiarize himself with the offense, while coach Mike McDaniel has had extensive time to figure out how to scheme the ball into the speedy Hill's hands. Hill got 10 targets in Miami's last game before the bye, and he still boasts one of the highest ceilings among wide receivers for Week 7 despite his middling valuation.

Jerry Jeudy, CLE vs. CIN ($16): Deshaun Watson and the struggling Cleveland offense haven't inspired much confidence this season, but there will be plenty of targets up for grabs after Amari Cooper was traded to Buffalo on Tuesday, and Jeudy figures to take on a significant portion of those. Jeudy's 36 targets are second-most behind Cooper's 53, while no other Brown has been thrown to more than 23 times. In four games with at least six targets this season, Jeudy has recorded over 70 yards twice and scored a TD in one of the other two games. He gets a cushy matchup in his first game as Cleveland's No. 1 WR, facing a Bengals defense that's allowing 25.3 PPG -- seventh-most in the NFL.

Honorable Mentions:

Malik Nabers, NYG vs. PHI ($33); Justin Jefferson, MIN vs. DET ($32); Tank Dell, HOU at GB ($24)

Against the Grainers:

A.J. Brown, PHI at NYG ($30); DK Metcalf, SEA at KC ($26); JuJu Smith-Schuster, KC at SF ($18)

TIGHT END

Brock Bowers, LV at LAR ($20): Bowers was busy in the Raiders' first game with Aidan O'Connell under center, catching nine of 10 targets for 71 yards. The 2024 first-round draft pick out of Georgia has come into the league as advertised, leading all TEs in receiving yards by a wide margin with 384, while nobody else at the position has more than 301. It's tempting to pay up for George Kittle at $25 against a Kansas City defense that has struggled to defend TEs, but Bowers brings better bang for the buck as the unquestioned focal point of the Raiders' passing game following Tuesday's trade of Davante Adams to the Jets. The Rams are the only team giving up more fantasy points per game to TEs than KC, as L.A. has allowed 21 catches on 23 targets for 295 yards and three TDs to the position in only five games.

Honorable Mentions:

George Kittle, SF vs. KC ($25); Travis Kelce, KC at SF ($21); Tucker Kraft, GB vs. HOU ($17)

Against the Grainers: 

Sam LaPorta, DET at MIN ($16); Jonnu Smith, MIA at IND ($10); Grant Calcaterra, PHI at NYG ($10)

DEFENSE

Miami Dolphins at IND ($11): The Colts are expected to get Anthony Richardson back from his oblique injury this week, which is good for the second-year QB's long-term development but will likely lead to a short-term step back for the offense after Joe Flacco filled in more than capably. Richardson has struggled to a 3:6 TD:INT, and he may not get much support from Indianapolis' running game with star RB Jonathan Taylor (ankle) trending toward a third consecutive absence. Miami's defense has quietly allowed a league-low three passing TDs, and while the Dolphins have struggled to defend RBs, they should manage just fine against Trey Sermon (knee) and Tyler Goodson, especially with Miami fresh coming out of a bye week.

Honorable Mentions:

Buffalo Bills vs. TEN ($15); Philadelphia Eagles at NYG ($12); Cincinnati Bengals at CLE ($11)

Against the Grainers: 

Cleveland Browns vs. CIN ($14); Indianapolis Colts vs. MIA ($12); Los Angeles Rams vs. LV ($11)

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Sasha Yodashkin plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: Youngsash, DraftKings: Yashdogg,Yahoo: Sasha, Fanball: Yashdogg.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Sasha Yodashkin
Sasha has been contributing NFL, NHL, NBA, MLB and Tennis content to RotoWire since 2015, with an emphasis on DFS. He is a huge New York sports fan who has been playing fantasy sports since middle school.
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