Exploiting the Matchups: Wild-Card Round Start/Sit and Rankings

In addition to the usual matchups analysis, you'll find my PPR rankings for each position below, with color-coding to delineate tiers. Good luck to all in whatever fantasy/betting action you've got going on this weekend!

Start/Upgrade 👍

Quarterbacks 👍

• Jayden Daniels (at TB)

Start Over — Baker Mayfield (vs. WAS), Sam Darnold (at LAR), Bo Nix (at BUF)

The Buccaneers are kind of like the Ravens in that their offense carried the load all season before finally getting some help from the defense later on. The difference is that Tampa Bay's improvement largely came against the run, and mostly while facing lousy offenses, whereas Baltimore made huge strides against the pass that included shutting down fellow playoff teams. The bigger picture for Tampa still shows a defense with subpar talent at cornerback and edge rusher, setting the stage for a potential shootout in this rematch of Daniels' first NFL start. 

Keep in mind that Washington's offenses was all screens, hand-offs and options for the first few weeks of the season, before progressing to a more downfield-oriented passing game with regular deep shots to Terry McLaurin. This Commanders-Bucs game has an over/under of 50.5, a full three points higher than any other wild-card matchup, which leaves Washington with a 23.75 implied total despite being a three-point 'dog.

• Other Good Matchups: Sam Darnold (at LAR)

QB Rankings

1. Lamar Jackson (vs. PIT)
2. Josh Allen (vs. DEN)
3. Jalen Hurts (vs. GB)
4. Jayden Daniels (at TB)
5. Baker Mayfield (vs. WAS) 
6. Sam Darnold (at LAR)
7. Justin Herbert (at HOU)
8. Bo Nix (at BUF)
9. C.J. Stroud (vs. LAC)
10. Matthew Stafford (vs. MIN)
11. Russell Wilson (at BAL)
12. Jordan Love (at PHI)

Running Backs 👍

• Bucky Irving (vs. WAS)

Start Over — Josh Jacobs (at PHI), James Cook (vs. DEN), Kyren Williams (vs. MIN)

The Commanders have impressive linebackers but a subpar defensive line, reversing the old status quo from when Ron Rivera was head coach. They've allowed running backs to average 4.90 yards per carry, which is not only the worst mark among playoff participant but also third worst among all teams. Only the Panthers and Bears allowed more YPC to running backs this year, and only those two teams and the Patriots surrendered more rushing yards. The matchup sets up a potential field day for Irving, who finished out the regular season with four straight games of at least 68 rushing yards and 4.3 YPC, averaging 17.7 PPR points along the way. He can reasonably be ranked ahead of every running back besides Saquon Barkley this weekend, arguably at the same tier/level as Derrick Henry.

• Aaron Jones (at LAR)

Start Over — J.K. Dobbins (at HOU), Brian Robinson (at TB), Najee Harris (at BAL)

The Rams got the best of Jones in the first matchup between these teams, holding him to 19-58-0 rushing and 2-37-0 receiving in a 30-20 Vikings loss back in Week 8. Other running backs have enjoyed far more success against Los Angeles, however, with only 11 teams allowing more rushing yards to the position (101.5 per game) and eight yielding more yards per carry (4.52). This isn't a premium matchup by regular-season standards, but it's pretty good for the playoffs, where defensive weaknesses are fewer and further between. I rank Jones right around the same place as J.K. Dobbins and well ahead of Najee Harris or Brian Robinson.

• Other Good Matchups: Joe Mixon (vs. LAC)

RB Rankings

1. Saquon Barkley (vs. GB)
2. Derrick Henry (vs. PIT)
3. Bucky Irving (vs. WAS)
4. Kyren Williams (vs. MIN)
5. Joe Mixon (vs. LAC)
6. Josh Jacobs (at PHI)
7. James Cook (vs. DEN)
8. Aaron Jones (at LAR)
9. J.K. Dobbins (at HOU)
10. Jaylen Warren (at BAL)
11. Jaleel McLaughlin (at BUF)
12. Austin Ekeler (at TB)
13. Brian Robinson (at TB)
14. Najee Harris (at BAL)
15. Justice Hill (vs. PIT)
16. Rachaad White (vs. WAS)
17. Javonte Williams (at BUF)
18. Cam Akers (at LAR)

Wide Receivers 👍

• Justin Jefferson (at LAR)

Start Over — Everyone

The Rams are middle of the pack for PPR points allowed to wide receivers, but they've taken a beating from opponent's top options all season, including an 8-115-0 line on nine targets from Jefferson in Week 8. JJetta has recently been taking well over three-fourths of his snap on the perimeter, where the Rams have allowed the eighth most receiving yards (1,892) and third most touchdowns (14) while ranking dead last in EPA/pass (0.44) and third to last in YPA (9.1). There's not much chance 31-year-old Darious Williams and 29-year-old Akhello Witherspoon can properly cover Jefferson, leaving the Rams highly dependent on their young group of pass rushers to make Sam Darnold miserbale before he can find Jefferson and Jordan Addison. That'll certainly happen on some snaps, but there should be plenty of others where Darnold gets enough protection (or buys enough time) to let Jefferson run free downfield.

• Rashod Bateman (vs. PIT)

Start Over — Quentin Johnston (at HOU), Marvin Mims (at BUF)

Bateman's efficiency projection will always be excellent when Lamar Jackson is healthy, and his volume projection gets a big boost with Zay Flowers (knee) unavailable. Consider it a bonus that the Steelers have struggled against perimeter targets, although Bateman himself caught just three of six targets for 42 yards and a TD in the two previous matchups. Other wideouts have been much more successful, with Pittsburgh allowing the third most receiving yards (2,025) and third most touchdowns (14) to players aligned on the perimeter. Second-year CB Joey Porter hasn't lived up to the promise of his rookie year, getting flagged a league-high 14 times while ranking middle of the pack in targets/catches/yards allowed per cover snap. Counterpart Donte Jackson is faring somewhat better in coverage but has long been one of the league's worst tacklers at the position.

• Other Good Matchups: Puka Nacua (vs. MIN), Terry McLaurin & Olamide Zaccheaus (at TB), Jordan Addison (at LAR)

WR Rankings

1. Justin Jefferson (at LAR)
2. Puka Nacua (vs. MIN)
3. Nico Collins (vs. LAC)
4. Mike Evans (vs. WAS)
5. A.J. Brown (vs. GB)
6. Ladd McConkey (at HOU)
7. Terry McLaurin (at TB)
8. Courtland Sutton (at BUF)
9. Jordan Addison (at LAR)
10. Khalil Shakir (vs. DEN)
11. DeVonta Smith (vs. GB)
12. George Pickens (at BAL)
13. Cooper Kupp (vs. MIN)
14. Jalen McMillan (vs. WAS)
15. Rashod Bateman (vs. PIT)
16. Quentin Johnston (at HOU)
17. Jayden Reed (at PHI)
18. Marvin Mims (at BUF)
19. Romeo Doubs (at PHI)
20. Dontayvion Wicks (at PHI)
21. Keon Coleman (vs. DEN)
22. Olamide Zaccheaus (at TB)
23. Amari Cooper (vs. DEN)
24. Demarcus Robinson (vs. MIN)
25. Devaughn Vele (at BUF)
26. Jalen Nailor (at LAR)
27. Calvin Austin (at BAL)
28. John Metchie (vs. LAC)
29. Sterling Shepard (vs. WAS)
30. Nelson Agholor (vs. PIT)

Tight Ends 👍

• Isaiah Likely (vs. PIT)

Start Over — Tucker Kraft (at GB), Cade Otton (vs. WAS)

Bateman isn't the only player who projects for more targets in Flowers' absence. Likely and Mark Andrews may also benefit, and with the chance to pick up more snaps/routes than usual (whereas Bateman essentially is already maxed out). Plus, Likely had two of his better games this season against Pittsburgh, putting up 4-75-0 in Week 11 and 3-29-1 in Week 16. Andrews also scored a TD in the second game, and in two subsequent contests the Steelers have allowed 8-84-1 to Travis Kelce and 8-68-0 to Mike Gesicki. 

• Other Good Matchups: Mark Andrews (vs. PIT), T.J. Hockenson (at LAR), Zach Ertz (at TB)

TE Rankings

1. Mark Andrews (vs. PIT)
2. T.J. Hockenson (at LAR)
3. Dallas Goedert (vs. GB)
4. Zach Ertz (at TB)
5. Pat Freiermuth (at BAL)
6. Dalton Schultz (vs. LAC)
7. Dalton Kincaid (vs. DEN)
8. Will Dissly (at HOU) 
9. Isaiah Likely (vs. PIT)
10. Tucker Kraft (at PHI)  
11. Cade Otton (vs. WAS) - if he plays
12. Tyler Higbee (vs. MIN)

Sit/Downgrade 👎

Quarterbacks 👎

• Jordan Love (at PHI)

Start Instead — Sam Darnold (at LAR), Bo Nix (at BUF)

Love isn't a bad quarterback, but there were no meaningful signs of growth between Years 1 and 2, leaving him somewhere in the middle range of NFL starters. And while teammate Christian Watson (knee) may be somewhat of a disappointment in his own right, especially in fantasy terms, he had value to the Packers as a field stretcher, providing occasional long gains while opening up space for his slower, shorter counterparts. Love now finds himself playing on the road without Watson, against a team ranked top three in a slew of pass-defense metrics, including yards allowed (192.1 per game, 1st), net yards per attempt (5.1, 1st), EPA per dropback (-.13, 2nd), success rate (41.0%, 3rd) and DVOA ... basically every popular "advanced" metric and also most of the traditional ones.

• Other Tough Matchups: Josh Allen (vs. DEN), Justin Herbert (at HOU)

Running Backs 👎

• Najee Harris (at BAL)

Start Instead — Brian Robinson (at TB), Jaleel McLaughlin (at BUF)

This is a nightmare matchup for Harris, playing on the road as a 9.5-point underdog against a defense that leads the league in rushing yards (63.8 per game) and YPC (3.46) to running backs. Baltimore allows the fourth most receiving yards (39.6 per game) to the position, but that's more likely to benefit Jaylen Warren, who had nine receptions to Harris' four in the two previous matchups between these AFC North rivals.

• Brian Robinson (at TB)

Start Instead — Austin Ekeler (at TB), Jaylen Warren (at BAL)

Robinson is concerning even before we look at matchups, having finished out the regular season with four straight games of 65 or fewer rushing yards and no touchdown, despite playing three of those without Austin Ekeler (who returned Week 18 and played 60 percent of snaps). There's risk of Robinson essentially disappearing from the offense if Washington falls behind, and he's unlikely to be efficient with whatever work he gets, facing a Bucs defense that's held eight consecutive opponents under 100 rushing yards, including totals of 64, 39, 31 and 32 the past four weeks. The Commanders are capable of ending that streak, but only if Jayden Daniels runs wild. The reality with Robinson this week is probably just praying for a goal-line TD.

• Other Tough Matchups: Josh Jacobs (at PHI), James Cook (vs. DEN), J.K. Dobbins (at HOU)

Wide Receivers 👎

• Courtland Sutton (at BUF)

Start Instead —  Ladd McConkey (at HOU), Terry McLaurin (at TB)

Sutton's excellent recent form, along with Bo Nix's, means there's potential for a big stat line in any possible matchup. Just know that it's less likely than usual to happen this week, as Sean McDermott's defense has a lengthy, consistent track record of limiting production by perimeter receivers and forcing targets toward the middle/shallow areas of the field. Buffalo allowed the fifth fewest receiving yards to perimeter-aligned players this season, after finishing fourth in 2023, 12th in 2022, first in 2021, eighth in 2020, seventh in 2019 and first in 2018. Sutton has lined up wide for 84 percent of his snaps this season and hasn't topped 10 slot snaps in game since Week 12.

• Amari Cooper (vs. DEN)

Start Instead — Keon Coleman (vs. DEN), Olamide Zaccheus (at TB), Dontayvion Wicks (at PHI)

There's some chance Cooper finally takes on a full-time role now that the playoffs are here, but I'd much rather bet against it given that there was no sign of improvement in late December, at which point he'd been with the Bills for more than two months. He didn't play especially well during the regular season —neither for Cleveland nor Buffalo — and it seems the Bills value continuity or scheme familiarity more than they care about Cooper's lengthy track record. 

In addition to the ever-present workload concerns, Cooper likely will have to deal with Broncos CB Patrick Surtain on a large percentage of the routes he runs. Cooper has mostly aligned wide left for Buffalo, and Surtain has played more snaps at right cornerback than left cornerback in four straight games. That means Cooper could find himself across from Surtain on about half his snaps, or even more, without any attempt at shadow treatment.

• Other Tough Matchups: Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs & Dontayvion Wicks (at PHI), Keon Coleman (vs. DEN)

Tight Ends 👎

• Tucker Kraft (at PHI)

Start Instead — Will Dissly (at HOU), Dalton Schultz (vs. LAC), Dalton Kincaid (vs. DEN)

One might think that Philadelphia's excellent cornerback group encourages opponents to throw more passes to tight ends. The problem is that the Eagles also have speedy linebackers and good safeties, which makes it hard to execute on any such plan. Only two teams have allowed less PPR points to the position (9.3 per game), and none has allowed less yards per target (5.74). Matchups are part of that, but we've also seen the Eagles shut down Jake Ferguson (twice), David Njoku and Evan Engram, plus they held Kraft to 2-37-0 on three targets back in Week 1. Josh Jacobs, not Kraft, will be the key for Green Bay to move the ball without challenging Philadelphia's cornerbacks.