Exploiting the Matchups: Week 5 Start/Sit

Nothing can match the excitement of Week 1, but I also look forward to Week 5 for a very specific reason — the addition of opponent adjustments to Football Outsiders' DVOA. While they don't carry a ton of weight in the formula at this early juncture of the season, these adjustments help provide context for simpler stats and give us a better idea of how effective teams have been at various aspects of football — pass offense, run offense, pass defense, run defense, special teams.

We all know that wins and losses are what matter at the end of the season, but W-L records over a four-game sample often are deceiving. Breaking things down on a play-by-play basis makes for a more useful evaluation, one that acknowledges the difference between a four-yard run against the Bears on 3rd-and-3 and a four-yard run against the Bengals on 3rd-and-8.

Before we get into specific players, here are some of my favorite tools for analyzing matchups and determining player valuations each week:

• Jeff Erickson's weekly rankings
• RotoWire's weekly projections
• Betting odds
• RotoWire's pages for advanced stats and TE route data.
• Pace stats and DVOA from Football Outsiders
• Next Gen Stats from NFL.com
• Player Grades and Premium Stats from Pro Football Focus
• Personnel Grouping Frequencies from SharpFootballStats.com
• airyards.com
• Opponent and teammate injuries
• Target share
• Snap counts
• Defense vs. Position stats

Upgrades

 QUARTERBACK

• Kyler Murray, ARZ at CIN

Between elevated passing volume and contributions from rushing stats, Murray's fantasy scoring has been surprisingly consistent, unlike his real-life performance. Week 5 could bring his first true blow-up outing of the season, with the Cardinals heading to Cincinnati to face a defense that lands 31st in Football Outsiders' DVOA (which now includes adjustments for opponent strength). Despite facing Josh Allen and Mason Rudolph in two of their first four games, the Bengals have given up 9.3 YPA and nine passing touchdowns, allowing the 18th-most fantasy points to QBs while facing the fewest pass attempts (27.3 per game).

Most opponents have run all over Cincinnati while protecting leads, but the Cardinals may not have that luxury, as their own lousy defense — 25th in both DVOA and yards per play (6.3) —partially explains why they're three-point underdogs against such a terrible team. I don't quite agree with the line, but I do agree with a 48.5 over/under, which is the fourth-highest of Week 5. These defenses are just as bad as the offenses they're facing, and there's a good chance for added play volume in a matchup between teams ranked second and third in pass-play rate (72.3 percent for AZ, 70.5 percent for CIN).

• Tom Brady, NE at WAS

Brady's Week 4 matchup in Buffalo was the worst one he could possibly have, apart from going up against his own team's defense. He'll now swing back toward the other end of the spectrum, facing a winless Washington squad that's given up the sixth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, landing 29th in pass-defense DVOA and 17th in run-defense DVOA. That last part actually is important, as Washington's half-decent work against the run should encourage the Patriots to come out throwing. They continued to feed a struggling Sony Michel last week in Buffalo, perhaps taking note of an opponent that's third in pass-defense DVOA but 25th against the run. The Week 5 gameplan should work more in favor of Brady, Julian Edelman, Josh Gordon and Phillip Dorsett; plus, it can't hurt to get Ben Watson back from suspension.

• Honorable Mentions: Philip Rivers, LAC vs. DEN; Andy Dalton, CIN vs. ARZ; Carson Wentz, PHI vs. NYJ; Kirk Cousins, MIN at NYG; Teddy Bridgewater, NO vs. TB; Jacoby Brissett, IND at KC

RUNNING BACK

• Derrick Henry, TEN vs. BUF

I've long been skeptical of Henry, whose role as an early down back on a middling team leaves him vulnerable to lineup-killing performances. We haven't actually seen one of those duds since last November, but the underlying circumstances haven't changed — Dion Lewis still handles passing downs, and the Titans are a 2-2 team ranked 16th in total DVOA. Recent history shows it's difficult to maintain RB1 value in the modern game with this profile, unless your name is Adrian Peterson. 

The good news? The Titans are in an excellent spot this week to avoid the type of game that works against their star running back, playing as three-point favorites at home against a team that will start either Josh Allen (concussion) or Matt Barkley at quarterback. As I mentioned above, the Buffalo defense has been much better against the pass than the run — an approach that tends to work best for teams with a high-powered offense that forces opponents to abandon their rushing attacks. The Bills aren't one of those teams, so Henry should continue to get carries even if he struggles early.

• Jordan Howard, PHI vs. NYJ

Howard's three-score performance last Thursday featured season highs in nearly every significant stat category, including carries (15), targets (four), snap share (53 percent) and scrimmage yards (115). Some of his work came at the expense of Darren Sproles, who dropped down to 11 percent of snaps after logging 30-to-36 percent each of the previous three weeks. I wouldn't count on Howard to repeat the passing-game involvement, but he should be up around 15 carries again with the Eagles favored by 13.5 points against a Jets team that will start either Luke Falk or less-than-full-strength Sam Darnold (mono) at quarterback. Gang Green has a couple key injuries on defense, with ILB C.J. Mosley (groin) and OLB Jordan Jenkins (calf) both held out of practice to start the week.

• Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler, LAC vs. DEN

The division of snaps and touches may be a mystery until Sunday, but the cumulative production should be impressive. Denver has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs, including the best performances this season for Josh Jacobs (113 scrimmage yards, two TDs), David Montgomery (68 yards, one TD) and Leonard Fournette (245 yards). The Broncos are 26th in run-defense DVOA, and they just lost edge rusher Bradley Chubb to a torn ACL and inside linebacker Josey Jewell (hamstring) to a less serious injury. Jewell and Chubb are first and third on the Broncos in tackles, with the former also holding the team's second-best PFF grade for run defense (81.2).

• Honorable Mentions: Joe Mixon, CIN (vs. ARZ); Miles Sanders, PHI (vs. NYJ); Damien Williams and LeSean McCoy, KC vs. IND;

WIDE RECEIVER

• Allen Robinson, CHI at OAK

Robinson is the safe bet in an otherwise-sketchy offense, working on six consecutive games (including playoffs) with at least four catches and seven targets. While not ideal, Mitchell Trubisky's left shoulder injury is far from a dealbreaker, considering Chicago has one of the smaller drop-offs from the starting quarterback to the backup (note: this is a bad thing). Robinson caught each of his seven targets from Chase Daniel last week, and that was against the stellar Minnesota defense.

This week, Robinson gets a London matchup with a Raiders defense that's surrendered 9.0 YPT and the sixth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. The Bears likely will need to throw the ball to keep the chains moving, with Oakland ranked ninth in DVOA against the run (a pleasant surprise) and 27th in DVOA against the pass (as expected), allowing 4.3 YPC to RBs and 8.1 YPA to quarterbacks. The Bears move Robinson all over the field, so he should see a mix of Gareon Conley, Daryl Worley and Lamarcus Joyner in coverage.

• Calvin Ridley, ATL at HOU

Ridley's rookie-year inconsistency has carried over to 2019, with his fast start followed by four catches for 38 yards the past two weeks. The per-game numbers are nearly identical to last year, but his snap share has bumped up from 61 percent to 73 percent, with Ridley running a route on 153 of Matt Ryan's 191 dropbacks (80 percent, up from 69 percent last year), per PFF. The improved usage eventually figures to pay off, starting with a Week 5 matchup against a Houston defense that's given up the 14th-most fantasy points and 8.5 YPT to wide receivers. The Texans have been even more generous in terms of opponent-adjusted metrics, ranking 20th in DVOA against No. 1 receivers, 22nd against No. 2 receivers and 26th against all other receivers. With the Falcons playing as five-point underdogs against a team with a decent run defense, Matt Ryan should push for 40-plus pass attempts for a fourth time in five weeks.

• Larry Fitzgerald, ARZ at CIN

This largely corresponds with the case for Murray, except Fitzgerald actually gets more of an upgrade. While the likely absence of Christian Kirk (ankle) is bad news for the Cardinals quarterback, its's good news for the team's 36-year-old wide receiver, who should bounce back from disappointing target totals the past two games — seven in Week 3, five in Week 4. The Bengals have only given up the 24th-most fantasy points to wide receivers, but that's largely a product of playing from behind against opponents that didn't need to throw. No team has faced fewer WR targets (55), and Cincinnati has surrendered 9.8 YPT on those passes. The Arizona offense should primarily go through David Johnson, but the absence of TE involvement ensures there will also be volume for Fitz.

• Honorable Mentions: JuJu Smith-Schuster, PIT vs. BAL; Tyler Boyd, CIN vs. ARZ; Julian Edelman, NE at WAS; Alshon Jeffery, PHI vs. NYJ; Robby Anderson, NYJ at PHI; Keke Coutee, HOU vs. ATL

TIGHT END

• Noah Fant, DEN at LAC

Fant has opened his career with at least three targets and a 63 percent snap share in every game, running a route on 113 of Joe Flacco's 161 dropbacks (70 percent), per PFF. Only seven tight ends have run more routes, and only 11 have caught more passes than Fant's 11. Coming off his first NFL touchdown last week, the rookie will face a Chargers defense that's given up the seventh-most fantasy points to tight ends, ranking 22nd in DVOA against the position. It's no surprise the Chargers have struggled to cover the middle of the field, as they've been playing without Derwin James (foot) all season and then lost his replacement, Adrian Phillips, to a broken forearm Week 2.

• Tyler Eifert, CIN vs. ARZ

It's been weird to see Eifert healthy and quiet rather than injured or productive, averaging four targets per game and 5.1 YPT. We can give up on him for good if it doesn't break out Sunday against an Arizona defense that's been famously awful at defending tight ends — league-worst marks for catches (32), yards (431) and TDs (six). Will Dissly's 7-57-1 receiving line was actually the worst any No. 1 TE has done against the Cardinals, after T.J. Hockenson, Mark Andrews and Greg Olsen all reached 25 PPR points. The Bengals would be wise to bump up Eifert's 41 percent snap share, especially now that John Ross (shoulder) has joined A.J. Green (foot) in the rehab group.

• Honorable Mentions: Dallas Goedert, PHI vs. NYJ; Jared Cook, NO vs. TB

KICKER 

• Jake Elliott, PHI vs. NYJ

Elliott is only 48 percent owned on Yahoo, and it would probably be 47 percent if not for my transactions Wednesday morning. He's off to a slow start in fantasy terms, but he's made all of his kicks so far this season, and he plays for a team that's tied for the second-highest implied total (28.75) of Week 5. Whatever he loses from Doug Pederson's aggressive approach to fourth downs, Elliott makes up for with immense leg strength.

• Honorable mentions: Jason Myers, SEA vs. LAR; Chase McLaughlin, LAC vs. DEN

Downgrades

QUARTERBACK

• Baker Mayfield, CLE at SF

Mayfield took a step in the right direction last week in Baltimore, but he still had one ugly mistake (his interception), and YAC accounted for 72.8 percent of his 342 passing yards. It was largely a case of simple throws turning into big gains, rather than Mayfield completing the high-difficulty passes he made on a regular basis last season. It isn't clear if the issue is coaching, line play or simply a hitch in Mayfield's development — maybe a little of each. Whatever the case, he hasn't been the every-week starter most fantasy owners were expecting.

Week 5 is a good time to put him on the bench if you have a decent alternative, as the Browns head to San Francisco with an implied total of just 21.5 points, potentially playing without Week 4 standout Jarvis Landry (concussion). The 49ers have given up the ninth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks, allowing 6.5 YPA with as many interceptions (five) as touchdowns (five). Favorable matchups play a big role in those numbers, but San Francisco also sits No. 2 in pass-defense DVOA, an opponent-adjusted metric. Coming out of a bye week, the Niners should have all their defensive starters healthy besides cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon (foot). 

• Not-so-Honorable Mentions: Marcus Mariota, TEN vs. BUF; Derek Carr, CHI at OAK; Gardner Minshew, JAX at CAR; Daniel Jones, NYG vs. MIN

RUNNING BACK

• Wayne Gallman, NYG vs. MIN

Gallman is a tolerable RB2 play on the basis of expected volume, but this isn't the same home run we got last week when the Giants were expected to beat a disintegrating Washington team. That's not to say I agree with Minnesota being a 5.5-point favorite — it's too large of a spread for a road team with no passing game. But there is a reason the Vikings are favored, and it's not just the tour de force that is Dalvin Cook. They also rank ninth in defensive DVOA and fourth in run-defense DVOA, allowing 3.8 YPC and the ninth-fewest fantasy points to running backs. 

Then there's the matter of Jon Hilliman's involvement, which could be problematic for Gallman in matchups that don't allow the team to pile up 37 carries. The undrafted rookie took 10 carries and 35 percent of snaps last week, with just one of his touches coming in the fourth quarter. Gallman was comfortable in the passing game, but his work on the ground left a lot to be desired — 3.5 YPC, a lost fumble and just 1.44 yards after contact per carry (the worst mark for Week 4 among all RBs with 10 or more carries, per PFF).

• Ronald Jones, TB at NO

Jones should be owned in all leagues in the wake of his huge Week 4 advantages over Peyton Barber for both snap share (49 percent to 26 percent) and carries (19 to nine). A 19-70-1 rushing line may not sound impressive, but Jones had runs of 54 and 25 yards called back by penalties, with the latter featuring a nasty spin move. 

He should have some big days ahead, but first RoJo will head to New Orleans to face a defense that's allowed QBs to throw for 8.4 YPA while limiting RBs to a more reasonable 4.3 YPC. If you watched the Sunday night game this past weekend, you probably heard that the Saints haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher since Nov. 2017. They're currently 15th in run-defense DVOA and 26th in pass-defense DVOA, after finishing third and 22nd, respectively, last year. The Saints also hold PFF's No. 2 team grade for run defense, one spot better than where they finished 2018.

• Not-so-Honorable Mentions: Josh Jacobs, OAK vs. CHI; Frank Gore, BUF at TEN

WIDE RECEIVER

• Courtland Sutton, DEN at LAC

Sutton is well on his way to a second-year breakout, coming off four straight games with four or more catches, including a pair of touchdowns last week against Jacksonville. The problem this week? Potential shadow coverage from Chargers cornerback Casey Hayward, who is working on a third straight season allowing less than one yard per coverage snap (per PFF), even though he frequently shadows No. 1 receivers. His recent work includes 6-67-0 for DeAndre Hopkins and 5-43-0 for Marvin Jones. Miami's DeVante Parker went for 4-70-1 last week, but it was slot corner Desmond King who got beat for the 34-yard touchdown.

There is some chance the Chargers put Hayward on Emmanuel Sanders or don't use their top corner to shadow, but that isn't the way they played it last season in the one matchup when both wide receivers were healthy. While we can't make any promises, ESPN's Mike Clay and PFF and both expect the Chargers to use Hayward against Sutton.

• D.J. Chark, JAX at CAR

Chark is the second-year breakout few expected, rebounding from a dismal rookie season with surprising consistency through the first quarter of 2019. He's caught at least four passes for 44 yards each week, and he'd have a touchdown in every game if not for an O-line penalty that wiped out an 18-yard score last Sunday in Denver. Chark is a second-round pick with 4.34 speed on a 6-foot-4 frame, so maybe we shouldn't be too surprised that he's separated from Dede Westbrook and Chris Conley, leading the Jags in target share (23 percent), air-yard share (33 percent) and receiving yards (175) in Gardner Minshew's three starts.

Chark should warrant a lineup spot most weeks this season, but Sunday's game in Carolina is a good time to put him on pause. The Panthers have allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers, even while facing the fifth-most targets (25.3 per game). They've limited the position to a measly 5.6 YPT, despite facing the Rams, Bucs, Cardinals and Texans — all teams that rely on their WRs heavily. This matchup sets up far better for Leonard Fournette, with Carolina allowing the 11th-most fantasy points to running backs while sitting 29th in run-defense DVOA (compared to No. 4 against the pass).

• Not-so-Honorable Mentions: Terry McLaurin, WAS vs. NE; DK Metcalf, SEA vs. LAR; Corey Davis and A.J. Brown, TEN vs. BUF

TIGHT END

• Delanie Walker, TEN vs. BUF

Once known for his consistency, Walker now finds himself in danger of suffering through more performances like last week's one-catch clunker, with his snap share down to 48 percent through three weeks. He played at least 71 percent of snaps each of his first five seasons in Tennessee, with his last healthy campaign (2017) including 440 routes on the team's 553 QB dropbacks (80 percent), per PFF. Walker has run a route on 91 of 147 dropbacks (62 percent) this season, largely because the Titans prefer Jonnu Smith and MyCole Pruitt in 12 personnel (one RB, two TEs).

A Week 5 matchup with Buffalo's dominant secondary favors regular use of those two-TE formations, and it also means Walker won't have great odds to pile up yardage even when he's on the field. The Bills have limited tight ends to a league-low average of 2.4 fantasy points (4.9 PPR), ranking fifth in DVOA against the position. It makes a lot of sense given that both starting safeties, Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer, hold top-10 PFF grades at their position.

• Not-so-Honorable Mention: Will Dissly, SEA vs. LAR