Exploiting the Matchups: Week 4 Start/Sit and Fantasy Streamers

Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start % comes from Yahoo, as of Wednesday night / Thursday morning.

Start/Upgrade 👍

Quarterbacks 👍

• Jayden Daniels (at ARZ) — 47% started

Start Over — Joe Burrow (at CAR), Dak Prescott (at NYG), Brock Purdy (vs. NE)

The Arizona defense hasn't distinguished itself one way or another, so this really is more about Daniels and his fantasy-friendly playing style than the matchup. Nestled between Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson as the No. 2 fantasy scorer among quarterbacks, Daniels leads the position in rush attempts (38), rushing TDs (three) and completion percentage (80.3). The rookie even hit Terry McLaurin on a couple deep throws in Monday's 38-33 win at Cincinnati, more than doubling his aDOT from Weeks 1-2 after mostly throwing screens and other quick passes in his first two games. The Commanders are underdogs this week, but only by three points in a game with the highest over/under (50.5) of Week 3.

• Other Good Matchups: C.J. Stroud (vs. JAX), Kyler Murray (vs. WAS), Joe Burrow (at CAR), Caleb Williams (vs. LAR), Deshaun Watson (at LV)

Running Backs 👍

• Najee Harris (at IND) — 58% started

Start Over — Rhamondre Stevenson (at SF), Tony Pollard (at MIA), J.K. Dobbins (vs. KC)

My D'Andre Swift recommendation last week proved unwise, but that was probably about Chicago's problems running the ball more so than drastic improvement from their opponent. The Colts previously allowed both Joe Mixon and Josh Jacobs to top 150 rushing yards, and while Harris hasn't shown that kind of upside, it's a favorable matchup to push toward the century mark and score his first TD of the season. Jaylen Warren (knee) has been way less involved in the offense this year and is now in danger of missing time with an injury, making Harris all but a lock for 15-plus carries (he's taken 20, 18 and 17 so far).

• Zack Moss (at CAR) — 52% started

Start Over — Jerome Ford (at LV), D'Andre Swift (vs. LAR), Carson Steele (at LAC)

Moss is consistently getting more playing time and touches than Chase Brown and finally took advantage Monday against Washington after facing tough defenses (NE, KC) in his first two games. Moss gets another cupcake matchup this week, making him a threat for 15-plus fantasy points even though he doesn't have the 20-carry upside of many other starting RBs. 

He's handled at least 13 opportunities (catches + targets) and 65 percent of snaps in each game, with peaks of 80 percent snap share (Week 2 at KC) and 17 touches (Week 3 vs. WAS). Something like 16 carries and four targets isn't out of the question if the Bengals can build a real lead for the first time this season rather than falling behind or playing a back-and-forth contest.

• Other Good Matchups: James Conner (vs. WAS), Brian Robinson (at ARZ), Devin Singletary (vs. DAL), Chuba Hubbard (vs. CIN), Cam Akers (vs. JAX), Roschon Johnson (vs. LAR), Jerome Ford (knee) or D'Onta Foreman (at LV), Cordarrelle Patterson (at IND)

Wide Receivers 👍

• Rome Odunze (vs. LAR) — 33% started

Start Over — Calvin Ridley (at MIA), Jauan Jennings (vs. NE), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (at DET)

Keenan Allen may return this Sunday, but his continued struggles with the heel injury in combination with Odunze's Week 3 breakout mean the rookie still figures to be Chicago's No. 2 receiver. Last week's big stat line (6-112-1) was backed by a league-high 235 air yards, with Odunze playing all but one snap on offense and repeatedly getting high-value looks downfield and/or near the end zone. He'll now face a putrid, inexperienced Rams defense that's already been hit for 5-121-1 by Jameson Williams (Week 1), 4-130-2 from Marvin Harrison (Week 2) and 11-175-3 from Jauan Jennings (Week 3).

• Khalil Shakir (at BAL) — 32% started

Start Over — Christian Kirk (at HOU), Rashid Shaheed (at ATL), Xavier Worthy (at LAC)

The Bills came out throwing in Monday's blowout of the Jaguars, after opening with extremely run-heavy gameplans the previous two weeks versus Arizona and Miami. A repeat of the pass-first approach would make sense Sunday night against a Baltimore defense that leads the league in rushing yards allowed (50.0 ypg) and YPC (2.8), plus Shakir has better-than-usual odds to see extra volume due to negative game script with the usually-favored Bills set up a 2.5-point underdogs. His 20 percent target share leads the team and hints at volume upside beyond what we've seen so far.

• Other Good Matchups: WRs Nico Collins & Stefon Diggs (vs. JAX), Marvin Harrison, Michael Wilson & Greg Dortch (vs. WAS), Chris Godwin (vs. PHI), George Pickens (at IND), DJ Moore (vs. LAR), Terry McLaurin (vs. ARZ)

Tight Ends 👍

• Dalton Schultz (vs. JAX) — 23% started

Start Over — Mike Gesicki (at CAR), Mark Andrews (vs. BUF), Pat Freiermuth (at IND)

Schultz is off to a slow start as the fourth option in a passing game that's failing to meet expectations, but there were a couple of promising indicators in Sunday's loss to Minnesota. He took a season-high 95 percent of snaps in the first game after fellow tight end Brevin Jordan suffered an ACL tear, with Schultz also posting season highs for targets (five) and air yards (43). While he caught only two of those passes for 11 yards, Schultz's efficiency should improve this Sunday in a home game against a bad defense. Jacksonville is the only team without a takeaway and ranks 30th in passing yards allowed.

• Other Good Matchups: Cole Kmet (vs. LAR), Elijah Higgins (vs. WAS), Jordan Akins (at LV)

Sit/Downgrade 👎

Quarterbacks 👎

• Anthony Richardson (vs. PIT) — 65% started

Start Instead — Jayden Daniels (at ARZ), Joe Burrow (at CAR), Dak Prescott (at NYG)

Richardson's erratic passing has been the subject of much discussion, but it might not matter that much for fantasy purposes if he were running the way many of us expected. Instead, he's sixth among QBs in designed runs (12) and t-12th in scrambles (six), averaging 6.0 carries for 39.0 yards per game, which is closer to Kyler Murray's range than Lamar Jackson's or Jalen Hurts' (or Jayden Daniels'). 

Coach Shane Steichen may eventually have his QB run more rather than trying to force things with a subpar passing game, but even if that happens as soon as this week the Colts are in a tough position on offense, facing a T.J. Watt-led Steelers defense that's given up 26 points this season. The only good news for Indianapolis is that bookend Alex Highsmith (groin) won't play, although that may be canceled out by additional problems from Watt if Colts RT Braden Smith (knee) is in real danger of missing the game after sitting out practice Wednesday.

• Other Tough Matchups: Aaron Rodgers (vs. DEN), Matthew Stafford (at CHI), Bo Nix (at NYJ), Will Levis (at MIA)

Running Backs 👎

• Rhamondre Stevenson (at SF) — 71% started

Start Instead — Brian Robinson (at ARI), Devin Singletary (vs. DAL), Tony Pollard (at MIA)

The Patriots put a lot of effort into getting WR DeMario Douglas more involved in their offense last Thursday against the Jets, which meant fewer carries for Stevenson early in the game. They ended up trailing by multiple scores for most of the night, and Stevenson lost a fumble on his sixth and final carry. He'll get more touches early in the game this Sunday, but game script remains a major concern with the Patriots by far the biggest underdog (+10.5) of the week. It doesn't help that they're on the road against a strong defensive front led by LB Fred Warner and DE Nick Bosa.

• Javonte Williams (at NYJ) — 20% started

Start Instead — Rico Dowdle (at NYG), Roschon Johnson (vs. LAR), Braelon Allen (vs. DEN)

Most of you have already given up on Williams, and those who haven't should at least keep him on the bench rather than in the lineup this week. The combination of Williams' struggles and his road matchup against a tough Jets defense means rolling with another bottom-tier starting RB (or even a high-end backup) is better than sticking with Denver's nominal starter. Injury-dependent alternatives include Cam Akers, Jamaal Williams, D'Onta Foreman and even Cordarrelle Patterson. 

• Other Tough Matchups: J.K. Dobbins (vs. KC), Ty Chandler (at GB)

Wide Receivers 👎

• Jaylen Waddle (vs. TEN) — 41% started

Start Instead —  Khalil Shakir (at BAL), Jordan Addison (at GB), Christian Kirk (at HOU)

Waddle may get a respite from the awful Skylar Thompson (ribs) but won't exactly be in QB heaven with Tyler Huntley or Tim Boyle. The margins were already thin for an efficiency-dependent WR who often struggles for volume while sharing the field with Tyreek Hill  — a reality that meant Waddle should've been downgraded to WR4 range as soon as Tua Tagovailoa landed in concussion protocol. The lousy backup QB situation makes matters even worse, and now the Dolphins will face a Tennessee defense that's given up the third fewest fantasy points to wide receivers, limiting Garrett Wilson to 4-57-0, Keenan Allen to 4-29-0 (on 11 targets) and DJ Moore to 5-36-0. The highest-scoring WR against Tennessee this year was Jayden Reed, who had 19 rushing yards and a 4-50-0 receiving line.

• Courtland Sutton (at NYJ) — 12% started

Start Instead — Brian Thomas (at HOU), Wan'Dale Robinson (vs. DAL), Romeo Doubs (vs. MIN)

Week 3 was promising for Sutton despite mediocre fantasy results (7-68-0), as he drew a team-high 11 targets in what might have been Bo Nix's breakout game. Sutton's 25 percent target share and 41 percent air-yard share suggest there are some big days ahead so long as Nix is average (or even below average) rather than terrible, but this coming Sunday isn't likely to be one of those boom performances. The Jets still have arguably the best group of cornerbacks in the league, and they'd be top seven in fantasy points allowed to WRs if not for the rushing TDs they allowed to Deebo Samuel and Calvin Ridley. 

• Other Tough Matchups: Garrett Wilson (vs. DEN), Tyreek Hill (vs. TEN), Michael Pittman (vs. PIT), Demarcus Robinson, Tutu Atwell & Tyler Johnson (at CHI), Quentin Johnston & Ladd McConkey (vs. KC), Rashod Bateman (vs. BUF)

Tight Ends 👎

• Mark Andrews (vs. BUF) — 77% started

Start Instead — Jake Ferguson (at NYG), Dallas Goedert (at TB), Cole Kmet (vs. LAR)

The lack of overall production at TE has perhaps given Andrews some leeway, but that's no longer the case after he displayed a new workload floor Week 3, getting just one target, 33 percent snap share and 27 percent route share in Baltimore's running-game-led win over the Cowboys. While his playing time will rebound this week, it's not clear to what extent that will be true, and now he'll have the added challenge of facing a tough Buffalo defense that's limiting tight ends to 4.3 yards per target. I'm not quite ready to drop Andrews in fantasy leagues, but he's one or two bad games away from that discussion.

• Other Tough Matchups: Isaiah Likely (vs. BUF), Hunter Henry (at SF), Noah Fant (at DET)

Streaming Picks

For Shallow Leagues (Under 60 Percent Rostered)

QB Geno Smith (at DET)

RB Cam Akers (vs. JAX)

RB Bucky Irving (hamstring, vs. PHI)

RB Rico Dowdle (at NYG)

WR Romeo Doubs (vs. MIN)

WR Darnell Mooney (vs. NO)

K Matt Prater (vs. WAS)

K Chris Boswell (at IND)

TE Hunter Henry (at SF)

D/ST Bears (vs. LAR)

For Medium-depth Leagues (Under 35 Percent Rostered)

QB Justin Fields (at IND)

RB Roschon Johnson (vs. LAR)

RB Emanuel Wilson (vs. MIN)

WR Gabe Davis (at HOU)

WR Wan'Dale Robinson (vs. DAL)

TE Tyler Conklin (vs. DEN)

TE Colby Parkinson (at CHI)

TE Zach Ertz (at ARZ)

K Greg Zuerlein (vs. DEN)

D/ST Raiders (vs. CLE)

For Deep Leagues (Under 15 Percent Rostered)

QB Andy Dalton (vs. CIN)

QB Daniel Jones (vs. DAL)

RB Dameon Pierce (hamstring, vs. JAX)

RB D'Onta Foreman (at LV)

RB Jamaal Williams (at ATL)

WR Michael Wilson (vs. WAS)

WR Jahan Dotson (at TB)

WR Greg Dortch (vs. WAS)

TE Brenton Strange (at HOU)

TE Jordan Akins (at LV)

TE Elijah Higgins (vs. WAS)

K Chase McLaughlin (vs. PHI)

D/ST Falcons (vs. NO)