Exploiting the Matchups: Week 13 Start/Sit

This article is part of our Exploiting the Matchups series.

Before we get into specific players to upgrade or downgrade, here are some of my favorite tools for analyzing matchups:

• RotoWire's weekly projections
• RW weekly composite rankings
• RW Betting odds
• RW Target share page
• RW Snap count page
• RW Defense vs. Position stats
• RW pages for advanced stats and TE route data.
• Pace stats and DVOA from Football Outsiders
• Next Gen Stats from NFL.com
• Player Grades and Premium Stats from Pro Football Focus
• Personnel Grouping Frequencies and Run:Pass Ratios from SharpFootballStats.com
• airyards.com

Note: Discussion below mostly is limited to players that are being started in less than 80 percent of lineups on Yahoo. There are plenty of other players with good or bad matchups, but we'll focus our energy on the guys most likely to be involved in difficult start/sit decisions. Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on scoring with 25/10 yardage, 4/6 TDs and 0.5 PPR, a.k.a. standard settings on Yahoo and FanDuel.

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Quarterback

• Cam Newton at LAC

39% started on Yahoo, % on ESPN

Justin Herbert is in the midst of the best statistical season by a rookie QB in NFL history, yet the Chargers continue to pile up losses. They've allowed 27 or more points in eight consecutive games, and still haven't held an opponent under 21 all season. Ranking 31st in run-defense DVOA (3.8%) and 28th in opponent YPC (4.8), the Chargers don't match up well with the run-heavy Patriots, even if they arguably have more talent. Newton was brutal in last week's win over Arizona, but he can put up 20 fantasy points against the Chargers even if his passing isn't on point.

• Honorable Mentions: Ryan Tannehill, TEN vs. CLE; Kirk Cousins, MIN vs. JAX; Mitchell Trubisky, CHI vs. DET; Derek Carr, LV at NYJ; Baker Mayfield, CLE at TEN

Running Back

• Chris Carson vs. NYG

80% Yahoo, % ESPN

The Seahawks limited Carson to 37 percent of snaps and 10 touches in his first game back from a month-long absence, but he should see more work moving forward, especially this week as a 10-point home favorite. Carlos Hyde came away with only 29 yards from his 17 touches Monday night, while coach Pete Carroll told reporters after the game that Carson "looked terrific" in the win over Philadelphia. The two running backs should swap roles for Week 13, with Carson being the better bet for 15-to-20 touches.

• Raheem Mostert vs. BUF

52% Yahoo, % ESPN

Mostert, Jeff Wilson and Jerick McKinnon each played at least one-fourth of the snaps in last week's win over the Rams, but it was Mostert who led the team in carries (16) and scored a touchdown in his first appearance since Week 6. Now that his feet are wet and the 49ers are solidly in the wild-card hunt, Mostert should re-assert himself as the centerpiece of this injury-marred offense, facing a Buffalo team ranked 27th in opponent YPC (4.7) and 22nd in run-defense DVOA (-3.3%). The Bills have done a much better job defending the pass since mid-to-late October, but they've still been giving up a ton of yards to running backs.

• Honorable Mentions: Damien Harris, NE at LAC; Devontae Booker, LV at NYJ; David Montgomery, CHI vs. DET; Jonathan Taylor, IND at HOU; Frank Gore, NYJ vs. LV

Wide Receiver

• Corey Davis vs. CLE

30% Yahoo, % ESPN

It kind of feels like Davis has been inconsistent this season, but that's mostly on account of his Week 9 goose egg when Ryan Tannehill had only 21 pass attempts and 10 completions in a win over Chicago. Apart from that, Davis has scored double-digit PPR points in every game, with either a touchdown or 67-plus yards in each contest. This probably won't be a week where he gets a ton of volume, but the efficiency should be good against a Cleveland team that expects top cornerback Denzel Ward (calf) to miss at least one more game. The Browns are middle of the pack for most pass-defense stats, but that's largely due to a laughably weak schedule, as they've been well below average if we look at opponent-adjusted metrics like DVOA.

• Nelson Agholor at NYJ

19% Yahoo, % ESPN

Agholor was inconsistent — to say the least — during his five years in Philadelphia, and he's largely made his living this season with touchdowns and big plays. It's a profile that typically would come with flashing red lights, except for the fact his solid 2020 performance has been rewarded with more volume in recent weeks. Agholor got nine and six targets in the Raiders' last two games, and he'll now face a Jets defense that's given up the fifth-most fantasy points (33.5) to wide receivers.

Note: Agholor missed Thursday's practice with an ankle injury, so his status will need to be monitored Friday.

• Honorable Mentions: Jarvis Landry, CLE at TEN; JuJu Smith-Schuster, PIT vs. WAS; Keelan Cole & Laviska Shenault, JAX at MIN; Darnell Mooney & Anthony Miller, CHI vs. DET

Tight End

• Kyle Rudolph vs. JAX

10% Yahoo, % ESPN

Rudolph had season highs for catches, yards and targets when Irv Smith (back) missed Week 10, then topped all those numbers when Smith was out again for Week 12. Between the two games, Rudolph caught 11 of 13 targets for 129 yards, with a touchdown being the only thing missing. Smith still hadn't returned to practice as of Thursday morning, so Rudolph should be in a good spot to see a handful of targets, facing a Jacksonville defense that ranks 26th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends (12.2) and 31st in YPT (8.7).

• Honorable Mentions: Tyler Eifert, JAX at MIN; Jordan Reed, SF vs. BUF

Kicker

• Dan Bailey vs. JAX

28% Yahoo, % ESPN

The Vikings have scored touchdowns on a league-high 78 percent of their red-zone trips, up from 54 percent in 2018 and 60 percent in 2019. It's reasonable enough for a team with Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen to thrive in that regard, but we should still expect some level of regression to the mean over the final five weeks of the season. Anyway, Bailey should at least have a nice floor from PATs this week, as the Vikings have an implied total of 31.5, second to only the Chiefs.

• Honorable Mentions: Jason Myers, SEA vs. NYG; Daniel Carlson, LV at NYJ; Jason Sanders, MIA vs. CIN

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Quarterback

• Matt Ryan vs. NO

50% Yahoo, % ESPN

Saints vs. Falcons always sounds like a shootout waiting to happen, but it's played out that way just once (Week 3 of 2018) in seven matchups since the beginning of 2017. That's partially because the Saints seem to have Ryan's number, picking him off 10 times in those seven games and holding the Falcons to 20 or fewer points in five of them. 

Heck, it was just three weeks ago that Ryan finished with his worst fantasy total of the season (7.3 points) in a 24-9 loss at New Orleans. He'll have home field advantage for the second matchup, but the Saints defense is still red hot, and the offense has moved at the slowest pace in the league (30.0 seconds per snap) since Taysom Hill took over at quarterback. No wonder the over/under for this game is hovering around 45-47, rather than the low-50s number we'd often see for an NFC South battle.

• Not-so-honorable Mentions: Josh Allen, BUF at SF; Matthew Stafford, DET at CHI; Andy Dalton, DAL at BAL; Alex Smith, WAS at PIT

Running Back

• Wayne Gallman at SEA

58% Yahoo, % ESPN

The past two games were the two best of Gallman's career from a fantasy standpoint, and his touchdown streak is now up to five weeks. The recent stretch of solid RB2 production has largely been based on goal-line carries, something that shouldn't be taken for granted this week with the Giants heading to Seattle as 10-point underdogs. Gallman has averaged 3.8 YPC and 4.6 YPR during the TD streak, with his 109 touches this season producing just one gain of 20-plus yards. 

In fact, he still doesn't have any plays longer than 26 yards among his 359 career touches in the NFL, repeatedly showing a lack of explosiveness. He's essentially a replacement-level player who was forced into a lead role, so we shouldn't expect too much against a Seattle defense that ranks third in both opponent YPC (3.7) and rushing yards allowed per game (89.3). Get ready for 15-50-0 rushing and 3-10-0 receiving.

• Nyheim Hines at HOU

59% Yahoo, % ESPN

This isn't the great matchup one might assume if they simply saw that Houston has allowed the second-most fantasy points to running backs. It is a nice setup for Hines in terms of efficiency, but it's also a matchup that could encourage Frank Reich to lean on his running game, which likely would mean more playing time for Jonathan Taylor and/or Jordan Wilkins. Last week's season highs for snap share and targets came with Taylor on the reserve/COVID-19 list, from which the rookie was activated Wednesday.

• Not-so-honorable Mentions: Ezekiel Elliott, DAL at BAL; Antonio Gibson, WAS at PIT; Kenyan Drake, ARZ vs. LAR; Darrell Henderson, LAR at ARZ; Todd Gurley/Brian Hill/Ito Smith, ATL vs. NO; Zack Moss & Devin Singletary, BUF at SF

Wide Receiver

• Darius Slayton at SEA

28% Yahoo, % ESPN

If we look at season-long stats, the Seahawks are still dead last in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. However, they've gone three straight weeks without giving up a touchdown or a 100-yard game to a wideout, benefitting from an improved pass rush (22 sacks the past five games) and a healthy, productive Jamal Adams. Meanwhile, Slayton has caught six passes for 99 yards over his past three games, dropping to 13.2 percent target share (4.4 per game) in the five contests since Sterling Shepard returned from injured reserve. 

Benching Slayton might seem like an obvious move at this point, but he was 31 percent started on Yahoo last week, ahead of guys like Cole Beasley (27%), Jakobi Meyers (23%) and Corey Davis (22%). Perhaps this will be the week when everyone finally gets the memo, especially if Daniel Jones (hamstring) is out.

• Christian Kirk vs. LAR

34% Yahoo, % ESPN

Kirk scored five touchdowns in a three-game stretch from mid-October to early November, but he's now sitting on three straight games with single-digit PPR points and exactly six targets. He still hasn't seen more than eight targets in a game this season, and his efficiency numbers — 58.6 percent catch rate, 8.6 YPT — are merely adequate, despite having catches for 80, 56 and 49 yards. Facing a Rams defense that's given up a league-low 23.7 fantasy points per game to wide receivers, Kirk is far more likely to bust than boom.

• Not-so-honorable Mentions: Jerry Jeudy, DEN at KC; Travis Fulgham & Jalen Reagor, PHI at GB; Tyler Boyd & Tee Higgins, CIN at MIA; CeeDee Lamb & Michael Gallup, DAL at BAL

Tight End

• Logan Thomas at PIT

24% Yahoo, % ESPN

You won't find many other tight ends with four or more targets in every game this season, but the stability in terms of volume doesn't necessarily equate to steady production. Thomas already has six games with 7.1 or fewer PPR points, including two out of six appearances since Dwayne Haskins was benched. Efficiency has been a problem even against weak opponents, and it's likely to be a problem this week in a road game against a Steelers defense that's shut down tight ends to the tune of league-low marks for both fantasy points per game (5.5) and YPT (4.8).

• Not-so-honorable Mentions: Hayden Hurst, ATL vs. NO; Tyler Higbee, LAR at ARZ

Kicker

• Matt Prater at CHI

56% Yahoo, % ESPN

With the Lions turning into a complete disaster, Prater has come up shy of double-digit fantasy points in four of his past five games, including just five total points in the last two combined. He's down to 18th among kickers in 2020 fantasy scoring, yet continues to be started in about half of fantasy leagues. This is a good week to cut him if you haven't already, as the Lions are three-point underdogs in a game with an over/under of 45 and a projected game-time temperature around 30 degrees. 

• Not-so-honorable Mentions: Brandon McManus, DEN at KC; Zane Gonzalez, ARZ vs. LAR; Greg Zuerlein, DAL at BAL

Streaming Picks

For Shallow Leagues (40-69 percent rostered)

QB Kirk Cousins vs. JAX

QB Taysom Hill vs. ATL

QB Derek Carr at NYJ

RB Myles Gaskin vs. CIN - if he plays

RB Latavius Murray at ATL

WR Deebo Samuel vs. BUF

WR Corey Davis vs. CLE

WR Michael Pittman at HOU

WR Nelson Agholor at NYJ

TE Robert Tonyan vs. PHI

TE Mike Gesicki vs. CIN - if Ryan Fitzpatrick starts

K Daniel Carlson at NYJ

K Jason Myers vs. NYG

D/ST Seattle Seahawks vs. NYG

D/ST Chicago Bears vs. DET

For Medium-depth Leagues (10-39 percent rostered)

QB Philip Rivers at HOU

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick vs. CIN - if Tua Tagovailoa (thumb) is out

RB Salvon Ahmed vs. CIN - if he plays, and Gaskin doesn't

RB Cam Akers at ARZ

RB Benny Snell vs. WAS - if James Conner is out again

RB Frank Gore vs. LV

WR Keelan Cole at MIN

WR Anthony Miller vs. DET

WR Breshad Perriman vs. NYJ

TE Jordan Reed vs. BUF

TE Kyle Rudolph vs. JAX

TE Trey Burton at HOU

K Dan Bailey vs. JAX

D/ST Las Vegas Raiders at NYJ

D/ST San Francisco 49ers vs. BUF

For Deep Leagues (under 10 percent rostered)

QB Mitchell Trubisky vs. DET

QB Nick Mullens vs. BUF

RB Jeff Wilson vs. BUF

RB/WR Malcolm Perry vs. CIN - if he plays

WR Darnell Mooney vs. DET

WR Josh Reynolds at ARZ

WR Russell Gage vs. NO

WR Denzel Mims vs. LV

TE Jordan Akins vs. IND

TE Jacob Hollister vs. NYG

K Matt Gay at ARZ

D/ST Detroit Lions at CHI

Crowd-sourced Lineup Decision

Each week I post a twitter poll with one of the toughest start/sit decisions from my own lineups. The process will be truly democratic, which means I'm required to start the player who gets the most votes, unless there's relevant injury/virus news late in the week.

And please, feel free to drop you start/sit questions in the comments below, or you can ask me on twitter - @JerryDonabedian.