NFL Game Previews: Wild-Card Saturday Matchups

SATURDAY

L.A. Chargers at Houston (+2.5), o/u 42.5
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. EST

The Chargers won their final three games to climb up to the No. 5 seed, a definite prize given the relative strength of the AFC division winners. Justin Herbert had the offense humming to close out the regular season, posting a 73.3 percent completion rate, 7:1 TD:INT and 8.7 YPA during the winning streak to lead the Bolts to 36.0 PPG. Ladd McConkey remains his top target, delivering 19-276-2 on 24 targets in those three victories, but Quentin Johnston also erupted for a career-high 13 catches and 186 yards in the finale against the Raiders and Will Dissly also demonstrated that he was healthy after missing Weeks 15 and 16 with a shoulder issue. The Chargers only beat one playoff team all year — the Broncos, though they did it twice — so they are far from a sure bet to advance out of the wild-card round, but purely in terms of current form and momentum, they are deserved road favorites.

Back in Week 5, the Texans took down the Bills 23-20, the high point of a 5-1 start to the season. Nico Collins got hurt in that game, though, and while he only ended up missing five games, Stefon Diggs was lost for the year a couple weeks later. Houston just hasn't looked the same since, and while DeMeco Ryans' crew did get past the Titans in Week 18, that followed a couple rough losses to Kansas City and Baltimore — the latter of which saw C.J. Stroud and the offense completely shut out, with the Texans' only points coming on a second-quarter safety. (Somehow, 31-2 wasn't even a scorigami). The Houston offense hasn't managed more than 20 first downs since Week 11, and hasn't amassed 400-plus yards since that win over the Bills. The defense hasn't been keeping the team afloat for a while, but DC Matt Burke's unit managed only one takeaway and four sacks in the last three games, and the downturn really began when safety Jalen Pitre was lost for the season in Week 12. Unless Stroud somehow turns back the clock to his rookie year and puts the team on his back, the Texans don't seem like they present much of a threat to anyone.

Key Info

LAC injuries: RB J.K. Dobbins (questionable, ankle), WR Quentin Johnston (questionable, thigh), WR Joshua Palmer (out, foot), LB Denzel Perryman (questionable, groin)
HOU injuries: WR John Metchie (questionable, shoulder), EDGE Denico Autry (questionable, knee), LB Christian Harris (questionable, ankle)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
LAC DFS targets: none
HOU DFS targets: John Metchie

LAC DFS fades: Justin Herbert, J.K. Dobbins
HOU DFS fades: none

Weather notes: indoors

The Scoop

Dobbins churns out 80 yards and a touchdown. Herbert throws for 300 yards and three TDs, two to McConkey (who tops 100 yards) and one to DJ Chark. Joe Mixon gains 50 yards. Stroud throws for under 200 yards and two scores, finding Collins and Metchie. Chargers 28-17

Pittsburgh (+9.5) at Baltimore, o/u 43.5 – Saturday, 8 p.m. EST

Despite Mike Tomlin's consistent regular-season success, the Steelers haven't won a postseason game since 2016, when they got past Miami and Kansas City before bowing out in the AFC championship against New England. Since then it's been four one-and-dones in eight years, and Pittsburgh's odds of breaking out of that funk aren't good. The team's four-game losing streak is longest active skid of any playoff team, and while the Steelers did split the season season with the Ravens, the game in Baltimore was a 34-17 spanking in Week 16 that saw the visitors simply fold after tying the game at 17-17 late in the third quarter. Russell Wilson posted a mediocre 61.8 percent completion rate, 4:2 TD:INT and 5.7 YPA over the losing streak, with Pat Freiermuth as his only reliable target — George Pickens missed the first two losses with a hamstring injury and hasn't looked the same since returning. the issues aren't confined to the offense, either. T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith have combined for one sack in the last three games, and the only QBs the Steelers were really able to hold in check the last month or so was Jameis Winston.

On the flip side, the Ravens soar into the playoffs having won four straight, and none were close. The average score during that stretch was about 34-11, and Baltimore topped 400 yards of offense in each while allowing an average of 248, with only Pittsburgh even creeping over 300. Lamar Jackson threw for 4,000 yards for the first time in his career, becoming the first quarterback in league history with 4,000 passing yards and 800 rushing yards in the same year (he wound up with 4,172 and 915), and his 41:4 TD:INT was simply absurd. Looking purely at the numbers, the only edge Josh Allen really on him for the MVP is in rushing TDs, and truth be told I'm kind of rooting for the two of them to split the QB vote so Saquon Barkley can win it. Jackson won't be without his top wideout, Zay Flowers, for this one, but he still has downfield weapons in Rashod Bateman, Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely. Oh yeah, and Derrick Henry in the backfield, who has run for at more than 130 yards in each of the last three game.

Key Info

PIT injuries: WR Roman Wilson (IR, hamstring)
BAL injuries: WR Zay Flowers (out, knee)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
PIT DFS targets: George Pickens
BAL DFS targets: none

PIT DFS fades: Najee Harris/Jaylen Warren, Calvin Austin
BAL DFS fades: Rashod Bateman

Weather notes: temperature in the high 20s, 1-10 percent chance of snow 

The Scoop

Harris leads the PIT backfield with 50 yards. Wilson throws for less than 200 yards and a TD to Pickens. King Henry rumbles for 150 yards and two touchdowns. Jackson throws for 230 yards and a score to Likely. Ravens 27-10

SUNDAY

Denver (+8.5) at Buffalo, o/u 47.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Broncos head into the playoffs having routed Kansas City's backups 38-0 in Week 18, but it seems safe to wave that one off as not particularly helpful or informative. Denver went 1-5 prior to that against teams that made the postseason, with the one win coming in Week 3 against the Bucs. Bo Nix dialed up the best game of his career, throwing for 321 yards and four TDs with an 89.7 percent completion rate and an 11.1 YPA, and Courtland Sutton (5-98-1 on seven targets) and Marvin Mims (5-51-2 on five targets) both reaped the rewards. Nix had to be busier down the stretch, though, as the Broncos never found an answer in their backfield. Jaleel McLaughlin saw the majority of the touches the last couple weeks, with Audric Estime getting short-yardage and goal-line looks and Javonte Williams still hanging around, but it's not a committee that has been working in any meaningful way. The Bills did give up the most receiving yards in the league to RBs, and the second-most receiving TDs, so there is a vulnerability to be exploited. I'm just not sure the Broncos have the horses (cough) to pull it off.

With nothing on the line in the finale, the Bills played a lot of backups and fell to the Patriots, cleverly ruining a division rival's chances to landing the No. 1 pick in the draft. Well played. Buffalo only went 2-3 this year against playoff teams, but the two wins came against Kansas City and Detroit, the No. 1 seeds in each conference, so I guess they should count double? Josh Allen's raw production took a step back from 2023, but so did his mistakes, and his six INTs were a career low against 28 TDs. In fact, his eight total giveaways were lower than his interception total from any prior season, even before you bring fumbles into it. Giving the Bills a mulligan on Week 18, Allen's led them to 40-plus points in three of their last four games, and it's been the team's ability to maximize both possessions and points per possession that's set them apart in 2024 — only the Lions and Commanders have produced points on a higher percentage of their drives, while only the Chargers have a lower turnover rate. James Cook also rolls into the postseason with a four-game TD streak in which he's racked up 340 scrimmage yards and six total touchdowns, and that includes his abbreviated Week 18 appearance.

Key Info

DEN injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
BUF injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

DFS Lineup Optimizer
DEN DFS targets: Marvin Mims
BUF DFS targets: none

DEN DFS fades: none
BUF DFS fades: Dalton Kincaid

Weather notes: temperature in the mid-20s, 10-20 percent chance of snow 

The Scoop

McLaughlin leads the DEN backfield with 90 scrimmage yards and a score. Nix throws for 260 yards and two touchdowns, hitting Mims and Sutton. Cook responds with 130 combined yards and two TDs, one rushing and one receiving. Allen throws for 240 yards and runs for 50, producing a second score score through the air to Khalil Shakir and one on the ground. Bills 34-24

Green Bay (+4.5) at Philadelphia, o/u 45.5
Sunday, 4:30 p.m. EST

Maybe no fanbase is holding its collective breath more than the Packers heading into the wild-card round. Jordan Love played Week 18 as the team tried to improve its seeding, but instead a loss to the Bears dropped them to the No. 7 seed, and Love got hurt in the process, exiting the game with numbness in his throwing hand and a sore elbow. He got in a full practice Friday and seems to be OK, but it's hard to imagine the Pack pulling off an upset with Malik Willis under center. Josh Jacobs at least continues to be a solid foundation for the offense. He's gotten into the end zone in eight consecutive games, and his 1,673 scrimmage yards and 16 total TDs would be getting a lot more attention if Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry hadn't also put together bonkers campaigns.

The Eagles took their foot off the gas in Week 18 and let their key guys get healthy, and they still beat the Giants 20-13. I'm not sure if that says more about Philly's depth, or New York's ineptitude. A week off couldn't have hurt for Barkley, who led the NFL with 378 touches in 16 appearances and missed on a chance to be the first guy to top 400 since Christian McCaffrey in 2019. (And, y'know, break Eric Dickerson's record too.) The bigger question for the Eagles is whether Jalen Hurts will have any rust after missing consecutive games with a concussion, though the team has done its best to create a smokescreen around whether he could have played last week if they'd needed him too. Despite all their stars, though, this team really hasn't been winning with its offense. The only time this year the Eagles topped 40 points was in Week 17 with Kenny Pickett and Tanner McKee under center. Instead, the defense has held eight of its last nine opponents to 20 points or less, giving Nick Sirianni the luxury of letting the ground game carry the load. The Eagles also beat the Packers 34-29 in the season opener in Brazil, for what a game played more than four months ago is worth.

Key Info

GB injuries: WR Christian Watson (out, knee), LB Quay Walker (questionable, ankle), CB Jaire Alexander (IR, knee)
PHI injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

DFS Lineup Optimizer
GB DFS targets: none
PHI DFS targets: none

GB DFS fades: Jordan Love, Romeo Doubs, Tucker Kraft
PHI DFS fades: none

Weather notes: temperature in the low 30s

The Scoop

Jacobs puts together 110 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Love throws for 220 yards and two scores, both to Jayden Reed. Barkley answers back with 150 yards and two TDs. Hurts throws for under 200 yards and hits Dallas Goedert for a score. Eagles 27-24 in OT 

Washington (+3) at Tampa Bay, o/u 50.0 – Sunday, 8 p.m. EST

The Commanders head into the franchise's first postseason appearance since 2020 as the hottest remaining team, having won five consecutive games. That includes a 36-33 victory over the Eagles in Week 16, the game in which Jalen Hurts got, err, hurt, and that was the only win of the regular season over a playoff team for Dan Quinn's squad. Still, it's hard to rule them out when they've got Jayden Daniels at QB. He's already set records for late comebacks in addition to his rookie record 891 rushing yards, and during the win streak he delivered a 70.3 percent completion rate and 13:4 TD:INT despite sitting out the second half of Week 18. Washington still has plenty of weaknesses across its roster — there's a reason Daniels has had to make all those comebacks — but it never seems out of a game with the kind at the helm. In fact, their only loss by more than a single score came all the way back in Week 1 before Daniels was fully unleashed, and even then he ran in two TDs, even if he didn't throw any.

Who beat the Commanders in the season opener, you might be asking? Yup, it was the Bucs. Baker Mayfield began a career campaign that day with four TDs, and he wrapped it up by tossing multiple scores in five consecutive game, posting a 73.0 percent completion rate, 9.0 YPA and 16:5 TD:INT over that stretch. Tampa Bay would have headed into the postseason with a 7-0 record since its bye if not for a Week 16 stumble in Dallas, and while Mayfield's play has remained excellent, the difference on offense has been the emergence of rookie RB Bucky Irving. The fourth-round pick failed to reach 80 scrimmage yards only once in those seven weeks, amassing 834 scrimmage yards with four rushing TDs and bumping Rachaad White back to a change-of-pace role that has suited him pretty well. The defense did produce a five-sack game against Bryce Young in Week 17, but it hasn't generated a takeaway since Week 15, and there's a good reason this game has the highest over/under of the weekend.

Key Info

WAS injuries: WR Noah Brown (IR, kidney), K Austin Seibert (IR, groin)
TB injuries: S Jordan Whitehead (NFI, neck), S Antoine Winfield (questionable, knee)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
WAS DFS targets: Austin Ekeler
TB DFS targets: none

WAS DFS fades: none
TB DFS fades: none

Weather notes: 10-25 percent chance of rain 

The Scoop

Ekeler leads the WAS backfield with 110 scrimmage yards and a receiving TD, while Brian Robinson adds 60 yards. Daniels throws for 230 yards and runs for 60 more, tossing one score each to Terry McLaurin and Zach Ertz and running one in himself. Irving erupts for 150 yards and two touchdowns. Mayfield throws for 320 yards and two TDs, hitting Mike Evans (who tops 100 yards) and Jalen McMillan, and Daniels' late comeback attempt ends on a failed hail mary. Buccaneers 34-28

MONDAY

Minnesota vs. Los Angeles Rams (+1), o/u 47.5
Monday, 8 p.m. EST

This might not be the matchup the Vikings wanted. Minnesota only lost three games all season, but two were to Detroit, which doomed Kevin O'Connell's squad to a road wild-card game. The third loss came in Week 8, as the Vikes fell 30-20 to a Rams team that picked apart DC Brian Flores' secondary. Sam Darnold ended his incredible comeback regular season with a Week 18 dud, but he still wound up with career highs nearly across the board — 4,319 passing yards (fifth in the NFL), 35 passing TDs (also fifth), and a 66.2 percent completion rate. Justin Jefferson reached 100 catches and 1,500 yards for the third time in five seasons, while Jordan Addison had some big games as his second fiddle. The defense will probably need to keep generating splash plays if the Vikings are going to advance, though. They finished the season tied for first in takeaways with the Steelers at 33, and tied for fourth in sacks with the Texans at 49.

The Rams rested their starters in Week 18 after clinching the NFC West crown the week before, losing 30-25 to the Seahawks to see their five-game win streak snapped. Sean McVay clearly isn't much of a believer in momentum, but he did the same things last year and the Rams ended up being one-and-done. Finding ways to get your starters extra rest is part of the package when you have a 36-year-old starting QB who only has so many throws left in his arm, though. Matthew Stafford saw his production creep down again — his 20 passing TDs tied for the lowest of his career over a full season, while his 3,762 passing yards were his lowest — and it's hard to tell whether the increased reliance on Kyren Williams was due to Stafford's slow decline, or a contributing factor to those declining numbers. In that earlier win over the Vikes, Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp and Demarcus Robinson all either topped 100 yards or got into the end zone, but that could be hard to repeat — Kupp limped to the finish with a mere 4-53-0 on nine targets in his last three games, while Robinson hasn't scored a TD since Week 13. Nacua at least closed the books on the 2024 regular season with a bang, posting 10-129-0 on 14 targets in Week 17 against the Cards. The Rams' defense mostly seemed like a gatekeeper down the stretch. They shut down weaker offenses and teams just playing out the string, but the Bills posted 42 points and 445 yards against them in Week 14, while the Eagles churned out 37 points and 481 yards a couple weeks before that. The game was moved from the Rams' home in Inglewood, Calif., to Glendale, Ariz., because of the L.A.-area fires, but the Rams don't have much of a home-field advantage at SoFi Stadium anyway.

Key Info

MIN injuries: RB Aaron Jones (questionable, quadricep)
LAR injuries: RB Blake Corum (IR, forearm), LB Troy Reeder (IR, hamstring)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
MIN DFS targets: Vikings DST
LAR DFS targets: none

MIN DFS fades: none
LAR DFS fades: Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams

Weather notes: indoors 

The Scoop

Jones rattles off 90 combined yards and a score. Darnold throws for 310 yards and three TDs, two to Jefferson (who tops 100 yards) and one to T.J. Hockenson. Williams responds with 80 yards and a touchdown. Stafford throws for 220 yards and two scores, one each to Nacua and Tutu Atwell, but it's not enough. Vikings 31-24
 

Last week's record: 12-4, 8-8 ATS, 7-8-1 o/u
2024 regular-season record: 183-89, 141-128-3 ATS, 144-126-2 o/u