Exploiting the Matchups: Week 1 Start/Sit and Fantasy Streamers

Written by

Published on September 3, 2024

Welcome back to Exploiting the Matchups, a.k.a. Start/Sit, your weekly home for matchup analysis (and streaming recommendations) throughout the NFL season. There are a variety of factors that can make a matchup favorable or unfavorable, and as the campaign progresses we'll have more information to work with. Analysis for the first few weeks will sometimes shift toward role expectations more so than strictly matchup-based stuff, as you'll see below with RBs like Zamir White and Devin Singletary.

Weekly matchups should be a tertiary factor for setting lineups, outranked in importance by role, talent and team context. We don't want to start a guy we drafted in the seventh round over our second-round pick just because he happens to have a better matchup. Maybe that'll be an option later in the season if Round 2 guy repeatedly disappoints, but for now it's mostly better to stick with the players for whom we have higher expectations overall.

Matchup analysis is meant to help decide between players that are in the same tier, or perhaps one level removed from each other. The perception of which guys are in which tiers does of course change throughout the season, and to help provide guidance on that front you'll see that all my recommendations show start percentages from Yahoo leagues and specific names at the same position that a given player should be started over / benched for.

At the bottom of the article you'll find my streaming recommendations at each position, sorted into

At the bottom of the article you'll find my streaming recommendations at each position, sorted into three categories based on rostered percentages from Yahoo. There will be times when I recommend guys with subpar matchups, especially for the deep-league plays where it can be a challenge just to find players that project for more than a handful of touches. Matchups matter, but usage and talent are the King and Queen.

Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start % comes from Yahoo, as of Wednesday night / Thursday morning.

Start/Upgrade 👍

Quarterbacks 👍

Jared Goff (vs. LAR) — 32% started

Start Over — Tua Tagovailoa (vs. JAX), Brock Purdy (vs. NYJ), Jayden Daniels (at TB)

Goff had extreme home/road splits in each of his first three seasons with the Lions; he now has 57 TDs (two rushing) in 25 regular-season games at Ford Field, compared to 23 TDs in 23 road games since he was traded. He now opens his fourth Detroit season at home as a 3.5-point favorite in a game with easily the largest over/under (51) of Week 1, facing a Rams defense that lost both of its veteran stalwarts this offseason (DT Aaron Donald retired and LB Ernest Jones was recently traded to Tennessee). Goff completed 22 of 27 passes for 271 yards and one TD against the Rams in a January playoff win, and this time he should produce similar yardage but with more than one touchdown.

Other Good Matchups: Caleb Williams (vs. TEN), Geno Smith (vs. DEN), Gardner Minshew (at LAC)

Running Backs 👍

Devin Singletary (vs. MIN) — 28% started

Start Over — Javonte Williams (at SEA), Tony Pollard (at CHI), Zamir White (at LAC)

The Vikings were solid against the run last season, but this is a good spot for Singletary all the same, opening 2024 at home against another one of the NFC's lightweights while his projected backup (Tyrone Tracy) works back from an ankle injury. It does seem Tracy is on track to play, but his role (or Eric Gray's) may initially be limited to giving Singletary an occasional breather. Singletary is a dark-horse candidate to rank among the RB snap and touch leaders for Week 1.

Zack Moss (vs. NE) — 15% started

Start Over — Austin Ekeler (at TB), Chuba Hubbard (at NO), Tyjae Spears (at CHI)

The Patriots were 16th in fantasy points allowed to RBs last season despite limiting the position to 3.41 YPC, with volume and receiving production often making up for the poor rushing efficiency. It's also fair to say that the YPC mark was driven down some by opponents taking so many of their carries in obvious running situations while nursing leads — a trend that may persist this season given the poor state of New England's roster. While Chase Brown may get the touches that are more likely to yield big plays, Moss is the best bet to score short TDs and/or pile up a large number of carries. It's a role that should pay off nicely this week with the Bengals opening their season as 8.5-point favorites at home.

Other Good Matchups: Joe Mixon (at IND), James Cook (vs. ARZ), Kenneth Walker (vs. DEN), Alvin Kamara (vs. CAR), Ray Davis (vs. ARZ)

Wide Receivers 👍

Terry McLaurin — 51% started

Start Over — Chris Godwin (vs. WAS), Keenan Allen (vs. TEN), Christian Kirk (at MIA)

While my faith in the Commanders is generally non-existent, McLaurin stands out as an exception and may even see career-best volume under Kliff Kingsbury, whose offenses in Arizona allowed DeAndre Hopkins to twice reach 10 targets per game and also produced a Christian Kirk season (2019) with 108 targets in 13 appearances. McLaurin should get off to a nice start in 2024 with the help of an excellent individual matchup, after the Buccaneers opted against bringing in an early draft pick or pricey free agent at cornerback despite trading long-time top cover man Carlton Davis to the Lions this offseason. Their returning starter, Jamel Dean, isn't particularly good, and they otherwise seem to be counting on 2022 fifth-round pick Zyon McCollum and/or former Jets backup Bryce Hall.

Xavier Worthy (at BAL) — 21% started

Start Over — Rome Odunze (vs. TEN), Christian Watson (at PHI), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (vs. DEN)

With Marquise Brown (shoulder) ruled out, Worthy may open his career as both the primary slot receiver and top deep threat for Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. The rookie will be facing a tough defense, to be fair, but he should have the relative matchup advantage when he's in the slot, where Baltimore lacks a clear replacement for Arthur Maulet (IR - knee). The Ravens have been hesitant to put top corner Marlon Humphrey inside for the past few years, so they may end up using a third safety instead of a third corner for most of Thursday's game.

Other Good Matchups: Mike Evans (vs. WAS), Amari Cooper (vs. DAL), Malik Nabers (vs. MIN), Tee Higgins (vs. NE), Joshua Palmer (vs. LV), Jameson Williams (vs. LAR), Jakobi Meyers (at LAC), Khalil Shakir & Curtis Samuel (vs. ARZ),

Tight Ends 👍

TE Brock Bowers (at LAC) — 36% started

Start Over — Dallas Goedert (vs. GB), Dalton Schultz (at IND), Pat Freiermuth (at ATL)

I can't make any promises about playing time or targets, but this is at least a good matchup to take a shot on the rookie's talent, facing a defense that's among the league's worst on paper (it was also one of the worst on the field last year). And for all of Gardner Minshew's limitations, he's never been so bad as to completely crater the fantasy value of his most talented pass catchers. Bowers should find himself in some favorable spots, be it against subpar slot corner Ja'Sir Taylor or past-his-prime linebacker Denzel Perryman.

Other Good Matchups: Evan Engram (at MIA), Taysom Hill (vs. CAR), Noah Fant (vs. DEN), Cade Otton (vs. WAS)

Sit/Downgrade 👎

Quarterbacks 👎

Dak Prescott (at CLE) — 70% started

Start Instead — Jared Goff (vs. LAR), Jordan Love (at PHI), Joe Burrow (vs. NE)

The Browns return all five starters in the secondary from last season, along with edge rushers Myles Garrett and Za'Darius Smith and speedy linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah. Veteran defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz has everything he needs to pull off a repeat of 2023, when the Browns were second in net yards allowed per pass attempt (4.8), third in interceptions (18) and first in total yards allowed (4,593). The unit looks to be healthy entering Week 1, which means Prescott will start his season on the road with one of the toughest matchups possible, counting on rookie LT Tyler Guyton to mitigate Garrett's outsized impact and give the QB time to throw (against a top-notch secondary).

Other Tough Matchups: Brock Purdy (vs. NYJ), Aaron Rodgers (at SF), Kirk Cousins (vs. PIT)

Running Backs 👎

Zamir White (at LAC) — 42% started

Start Instead — D'Andre Swift (vs. TEN), Jerome Ford (vs. DAL), Javonte Williams (at SEA)

This one is less about the specific matchup — fixing LA's defense is a multi-year project — and more about multiple workload concerns. The first concern entails Alexander Mattison (or even Dylan Laube?) getting more snaps and touches than offseason fantasy discourse suggested. The second worry is that the Raiders may be bad enough for White to get game-scripted out of relevance in the second half, even against a mediocre-looking Chargers outfit. I'd only be comfortable starting White in Week 1 if he had a home game against a projected cellar dweller (the way Devin Singletary does).

Brian Robinson (at TB) — 19% started

Start Instead — Zack Moss (vs. NE), Chuba Hubbard (at NO), Devin Singletary (vs. MIN)

The Bucs hired Todd Bowles as their defensive coordinator in 2019 and have ranked in the top half of the league for PPR points allowed to RBs in each subsequent season, including third in 2023 and sixth in 2022. There have been plenty of personnel changes during that time, but the Bucs still have DT Vita Vea, LB Lavonte David and S Antoine Winfield patrolling the middle of the field. In any case, Robinson is an ordinary talent playing for a three-point underdog in a timeshare backfield where he may well be the lesser guy. That'd be trouble enough behind a good offensive line; it's a disaster waiting to happen behind Washington's lightly regarded blocking unit.

Other Tough Matchups: Jaylen Warren (at ATL), Rico Dowdle & Ezekiel Elliott (at CLE), Blake Corum (at DET)

Wide Receivers 👎

Jayden Reed (at PHI) — 28% started

Start Instead — Christian Kirk (at MIA), Calvin Ridley (at CHI), Terry McLaurin (at TB)

The Eagles remade their secondary after it fell apart last season, bringing back S C.J. Gardner-Johnson from his detour to Detroit and then drafting both CB Quinyon Mitchell (first round) and CB/S Cooper DeJean (second round). They also got CB Isaiah Rodgers back from a gambling suspension and moved veteran slot corner Avonte Maddox to safety, creating the depth that they lacked last season.

My concern for Reed this Friday in São Paulo is two-fold. First, his role as the slot receiver means he'll miss out on a bunch of snaps/routes if the Packers counter Philadelphia's improved secondary with multi-TE looks to pressure the Eagles into their base defense (or else run the ball against their nickel packages). Second, Mitchell is expected to man the slot, which means when Reed is on the field he'll often be lined up across from someone that's both bigger (6-0, 195) and faster (4.33 40) than him. Mitchell probably shouldn't have been available at the 22nd overall pick; he looks more like a top-15 talent.

Diontae Johnson (at NO) — 26% started

Start Instead — Xavier Worthy (vs. BAL), Courtland Sutton (at SEA), Rome Odunze (vs. TEN)

The Saints are expected to use weak link Alontae Taylor to cover the slot, which will mostly be Adam Thielen's domain on the Carolina side of things. Johnson thus figures to run most of his routes against quality perimeter corners Marshon Lattimore and Paulson Adebo, with the additional detriment of facing a team that's preferred playing slow-paced slugfests in the post-Brees/Payton era. New Panthers coach Dave Canales may be fine with that arrangement while introducing QB Bryce Young to a new system, so I tend to agree with betting odds that have this Panthers-Saints matchup tied for the fourth-lowest over/under (41.5) of Week 1. If anything, the number should be a point lower.

Other Tough Matchups: Brandon Aiyuk (vs. NYJ), CeeDee Lamb & Brandin Cooks (at CLE), Mike Williams (at SF), Darnell Mooney (vs. PIT), Greg Dortch (at BUF)

Tight Ends 👎

Jake Ferguson (at CLE) —75 % started

Start Instead — David Njoku (vs. DAL), Evan Engram (at MIA)

It's possible a tough matchup for the entire Dallas offense leads to more dump-off passes for Ferguson, but that's not how things played out for Cleveland's opponents last year, as no defense faced fewer TE targets (86) and only two teams allowed less yards per attempt (6.5) on passes to tight ends. While I don't love using DvP stats from the previous season, it's at least interesting to know given that the Browns retained so many of their key defenders as well as coordinator Gregg Williams. The more important point is that Ferguson is on the road against what figures to be a good defense, regardless of how things broke down last year in terms of production allowed to specific players/positions.