DraftKings NFL: Week 1 DFS Breakdown

This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.

Week 1 has finally arrived and we have a 13-game slate on DraftKings. The Chargers-Dolphins game is the only matchup with a point total higher than 50, which will make it a popular target for stacks. There is obvious merit to stacking it and plenty of ways to differentiate should you choose to. Fading it could also be a strong strategy as we have 12 other games to choose from and plenty of appealing options elsewhere. 

As unpredictable as the NFL is, Week 1 is especially volatile as we have new coaches, new players and no previous stats to analyze. Embracing that uncertainty is the name of the game for tournaments. There are few better weeks to take chances on than this one. The large-field tournaments have historically been won with lineups where the cumulative rostership is less than 100 percent. That means only 3-4 chalky players and 3-4 who aren't very popular at all. If you have a strong take about a player not mentioned in this article or your favorite podcast, this is the time to gamble. The leverage gained by fading chalk in favor of something less popular is what vaults lineups to the top. If you're only interested in rostering the "best plays," stick to cash games. There is plenty of money to be made there as well. Good Luck.

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the "main slate" of games kicking off at 1 p.m., 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. EDT on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the majority concentrated at the very top.

The Games

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to their salaries — good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our GPP lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with using a few chalky plays. 

• WR Calvin Ridley at IND ($6,500)

Of all the WRs priced below $8K, Ridley projects best point-per-dollar. After sitting out for a year, he looked great in preseason and should form an instant connection with Trevor Lawrence. The matchup against Indy is soft and the price tag is just too cheap for the top WR on one of the best passing attacks in the league. I'll give an honorable mention to Deebo Samuel ($5,500), who projects best in the $5K range. The matchup against Pittsburgh isn't ideal, but this is the lowest he's ever been priced. He's spoke about being in better shape and coach Mike Shanahan indicated that more plays will be drawn up specifically for him. Take that however you want, but we got used to seeing Deebo priced in the $7Ks for a long time. This feels a bit wrong. 

• RB Joe Mixon at CLE ($6,800) 

Mixon will be a popular option in cash games this week. The reason he projects well is that he's expected to handle most of the third downs with Samaje Perine departed. That should lead to more catches and it's that receiving upside that gives him a desirable floor. Projecting best in the $5K range is Raheem Mostert ($5,400). His path to the No. 1 role was cleared by injuries to Jeff Wilson and De'Von Achane. Achane is healthy now but Mostert will see the majority of work in what's the best game environment on the board. His salary is too cheap for that, especially when you factor in that he catches some passes too. I found it noteworthy that he had eight receptions in Week 17 last season. 

***UPDATE***

I wrote this article before we got the news that Christian Watson is out. Had I known that, I probably would've highlighted Aaron Jones ($6,300) instead of Mixon as they project almost equally now point-per-dollar. With the news that Kendre Miller still hasn't practiced, Jamaal Williams ($5,100) becomes a similar option to Mostert. Kenneth Walker ($6,000) also looks good no longer carrying a questionable take. The RB position isn't clear cut this week. Take your pick.

Other Cash-Game Options

QB Jalen Hurts at NE ($7,800)

QB Kirk Cousins vs. TB ($6,300)

QB Geno Smith vs. LAR ($6,100)

QB Deshaun Watson vs. CIN ($6,000)

QB Russell Wilson vs. LV ($5,900)

QB Anthony Richardson vs. JAX ($5,600)

QB Sam Howell vs. CAR ($4,900)

RB Austin Ekeler vs. MIA ($8,400)

RB Joe Mixon vs. CIN ($6,800)

RB Aaron Jones at CHI ($6,300)

RB Kenneth Walker vs. LAR ($6,000)

RB Raheem Mostert at LAC ($5,400)

RB Jamaal Williams vs. TEN ($5,100)

RB Samaje Perine vs. LV ($5,100)

WR Justin Jefferson vs. TB ($8,800)

WR Tyreek Hill at LAC ($8,200)

WR Ja'Marr Chase at CLE ($8,100)

WR Davante Adams at DEN ($7,900)

WR Calvin Ridley at IND ($6,500)

WR Chris Olave vs. TEN ($6,500)

WR Deebo Samuel at PIT ($5,500)

WR Courtland Sutton at LV ($5,200), if Jerry Jeudy is out

WR Marvin Mims at LV ($3,000), if Jerry Jeudy is out

WR Jayden Reed at CHI ($3,000)

WR Tutu Atwell at SEA ($3,000)

TE Tyler Higbee at SEA ($4,800)

TE David Njoku vs. CIN ($4,200)

TE Hayden Hurst at ATL ($3,000)

TE Luke Musgrave at CHI ($2,900)

D/ST Washington Commanders vs. ARI ($2,800)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of most tournament lineups, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the game, hoping to take advantage of a back-and-forth shootout. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.)

Miami Dolphins (24) at Los Angeles Chargers (27)

DOLPHINS

This will be the most popular game to stack as it features two of the league's marquee teams and is the only matchup with a total higher than 50. Miami is always a great team to stack because its target share is so concentrated between Tyreek Hill ($8,200) and Jaylen Waddle ($7,100). It's as easy as pairing one or both with Tua Tagovailoa ($6,700) and running it back with a Charger or two. If the game really shoots out, you might put Raheem Mostert ($5,400) in that stack as well. Most people don't like to pair RB and QB, but Mostert showed surprising receiving chops last season, including an eight-catch game in Week 17. The Dolphins are without Jeff Wilson so they figure to lean on Mostert heavily. If you're playing the largest-field GPPs, Durham Smythe ($2,800) might be worth a punt. Normally I wouldn't consider him, but he's the No. 1 TE with Mike Gesicki gone and there are no stand-out options in that range, which makes taking a gamble more acceptable. 

CHARGERS

The Chargers were one of the fastest teams in the league last season and are expected to play at an even faster pace this season under new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. Their games are almost always great for stacking because they produce a lot of plays. They're finally healthy on both sides of the ball, which has people expecting big things from Justin Herbert ($6,900) and an offense with so many weapons. Keenan Allen ($7,300) is always a good option but Mike Williams ($5,700) seems especially cheap for the type of upside he offers. The nice thing is that neither is expected to overly popular. I'd probably avoid first-round pick Quentin Johnston ($4,400) for now as it's been reported that Joshua Palmer ($4,000) remains the No. 3 WR. Austin Ekeler ($8,400) has the highest floor/ceiling projection of any RB and I wouldn't expect many to pair him with Herbert. 

• Favorite Dolphins Stack: QB Tagovailoa + WR Hill + WR Waddle + WR Williams
• Favorite Chargers Stack: QB Herbert + WR Williams + WR Allen + WR Hill 

Cincinatti Bengals (25) at Cleveland Browns (22.5)

BENGALS

It's a tough matchup for Joe Burrow ($7,100) in Cleveland against a Browns defense expected to be one of the better units in the league. The front four is especially fierce and we saw Cincinnati's offensive line struggle at times last season. But we've also seen Burrow succeed in the toughest of matchups time and again, and what makes him most appealing in this spot is that he wont be popular. It might seem like a tough matchup for Ja'Marr Chase ($8,200) too. Keep in mind that his talent makes him matchup proof and he shredded the Browns for 10 catches and 119 the only he faced them last year. Tee Higgins ($6,800) is going completely overlooked and makes for a great leverage option considering he has the upside to break any slate. Last season, he topped 25 fantasy points in road games against New England, Pittsburgh and Tennessee. Tyler Boyd ($4,100) and Irv Smith ($3,600) are cheap enough to be considered in double or triple stacks. Joe Mixon ($6,800) is among the top projected RBs from a point-per-dollar standpoint. He's expected to play a three-down role following the departure of Samaje Perine. That should have him plenty involved in the passing game and pairing him with Burrow would be another way to differentiate. 

BROWNS

It doesn't seem like many people believe in Deshaun Watson ($6,000) anymore, which is understandable, but he's cheap and so are his pass-catchers. We know the Browns want to run the ball and Nick Chubb ($8,200) is a great option to pair with Burrow and Co. But maybe they're playing from behind and forced to throw. Watson can make plays with legs and still offers some rushing upside too. Amari Cooper ($5,800) is very affordable. As is David Njoku ($4,200), who stands out as one of the better midrange TEs. They're the only two I'm considering for single entry/small field GPPs but Donovan Peoples-Jones ($4,300) and Elijah Moore ($3,800) make sense in the largest-field tournaments like the millionaire maker and $3 20 max. 

• Favorite Bengals Stack: QB Burrow + RB Chubb + WR Chase + WR Higgins
• Favorite Browns Stack: QB Watson + RB Mixon + WR Cooper +/- TE Njoku

Other Stacks to Consider

QB Lamar Jackson + RB Dameon Pierce + WR Zay Flowers and/or TE Mark Andrews

QB Lamar Jackson + WR Nico Collins + WR Zay Flowers and/or TE Mark Andrews

QB Justin Fields + WR DJ Moore + RB Aaron Jones or TE Luke Musgrave 

QB Trevor Lawrence + WR Calvin Ridley + WR Christian Kirk or TE Evan Engram

QB Kirk Cousins + WR Justin Jefferson + WR Mike Evans/WR Chris Godwin + TE T.J. Hockenson

QB Kirk Cousins + WR Justin Jefferson + WR K.J. Osborn/WR Jordan Addison + TE Cade Otton

QB Kirk Cousins + RB Rachaad White + WR Justin Jefferson + TE T.J. Hockenson or WR K.J. Osborn

QB Geno Smith + WR DK Metcalf and/or WR Tyler Lockett + TE Tyler Higbee

QB Anthony Richardson + WR Calvin Ridley + WR Michael Pittman or WR Alec Pierce

QB Anthony Richardson + RB Travis Etienne + WR Michael Pittman or WR Alec Pierce

High-Priced Heroes

• WR Justin Jefferson vs. TB ($8,800)

I hate to say it but this one feels almost too easy. You have the best WR in the league in one of the best matchups he'll have all season, at home against a Baker Mayfield led Bucs team. It's expected to be one of the faster-paced games, and the Vikings should find themselves with plenty of opportunities to put up points. Jefferson has the highest floor/ceiling of any of player on the slate. If anything, he should become even more of a focal point this season with the Vikings moving on from Dalvin Cook and Adam Thielen. Of course he's going to be popular, but not overwhelmingly so as I was worried about earlier in the week. I'll be rostering him in cash games and GPPs. 

• RB Nick Chubb vs. CIN ($8,200)

I decided to highlight Chubb here because almost no one is going to play him. There are seven RBs priced at $7K or above and he's projected to be the least popular of the bunch. If the Browns are going to win this game, it's likely behind Chubb. In last season's matchup, he rushed for 102 yards and two scores on his way to 28 fantasy points. He could do that again and outscore the entire position. It's going to be tough for me to get there as I plan on spending up at WR, but it's a great leverage opportunity if you're on the Browns. 

Honorable Mentions: WR Tyreek Hill ($8,200); WR Ja'Marr Chase ($8,100); T.J. Hockenson ($5,900)

Fading the Field

Every week we see at least one or two players who are popular without the backing of a top point-per-dollar projection. In some cases it even makes sense to fade a player with a strong projection, particularly when there are good alternatives at the same position and price range

• QB Jalen Hurts at NE ($7,800)

Just to be clear, this is about fading Hurts in tournaments. He's one of the best QB options for cash games. I'm just worried about his ceiling for GPPs. This looks like one of least favorable matchups he'll have this season, away to New England in a game that probably plays slower. Of course, Hurts can put up a massive score in any environment but I'm willing to take my chances. It's more about liking other QBs better and wanting to maximize exposure. You can't play everyone and narrowing your player pool will give you a better chance at a big score in the long run. 

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

• RB Brian Robinson vs. ARI ($5,100)

I can't imagine a better spot than home against Arizona. The Cardinals look to be one of the worst teams we've seen in years and this is more about targeting that matchup that any one specific player. I want the guy who's likely to see 20-plus carries, and that's Robinson. He had at least 20 carries in five of his 12 games last season. And that was coming off of a significant injury and in games where Washington were losing. They're expected to win comfortably, and in that scenario Robinson has a clear path to 100 yards and a TD. That makes him a bargain for me, and he won't be chalky either. 

Honorable Mentions: WR Zay Flowers ($4,000); TE Tyler Higbee ($4,800); QB Sam Howell ($4,900)

The Bargain Bin

QB Deshaun Watson vs. CIN ($6,000)

QB Russell Wilson vs. LV ($5,900)

QB Anthony Richardson vs. JAX ($5,600)

QB Jordan Love at CHI ($5,000)

QB Sam Howell vs. ARI ($4,900)

RB Rachaad White at MIN ($5,500)

RB Raheem Mostert at LAC ($5,400)

RB Antonio Gibson vs. ARI ($5,200)

RB Brian Robinson vs. ARI ($5,100)

RB Samaje Perine vs. LV ($5,100)

RB Deon Jackson vs. JAX ($4,100)

WR Van Jefferson at SEA ($4,700)

WR Nico Collins at BAL ($4,700)

WR Zay Flowers vs. HOU ($4,000)

WR Elijah Moore vs. CIN ($3,800)

WR Alec Pierce vs. JAX ($3,800)

WR Jonathan Mingo at ATL ($3,200)

WR Jayden Reed at CHI ($3,000), if Watson or Doubs is out

WR Tutu Atwell at SEA ($3,000)

WR Puka Nacua at SEA ($3,000)

WR Marvin Mims vs. LV ($3,000)

TE Hayden Hurst at ATL ($3,000)

TE Luke Musgrave at CHI ($2,900)

D/ST Atlanta Falcons vs. CAR ($3,200)

D/ST Washington Commanders vs. ARI ($2,800)

D/ST Green Bay Packers at CHI ($2,800)

D/ST Las Vegas Raiders at DEN ($2,300)

Injuries to Monitor

• WR Jerry Jeudy vs. DEN

Jeudy seems to be getting healthier sooner than was first expected when he injured his hamstring a few weeks ago. His status is important to monitor because Marvin Mims ($3,000) stands to be a popular option if Jeudy misses. Courtland Sutton ($5,200) would also look like pretty good value. If Jeudy ends up playing, however, I'd rather look elsewhere than Mims for $3K. 

• WR Christian Watson and WR Romeo Doubs at CHI

Watson is out and Doubs (questionable) could be too. Jayden Reed ($3,000) stand to benefit most. I'd also give a bump to Luke Musgrave ($2,900), who might even be considered cash viable based on the lack of appealing value at the position. 

• RB Kenneth Walker vs. LAR 

Walker is still nursing a groin injury that forced him to miss the entire preseason. It seems to be precautionary and that he'll play Sunday but if new changes, rookie Zach Charbonnet ($4,800) would be too cheap for what figures to be a favorable game script for the Seahawks' RBs. 

Weather 

Nothing to worry about this week.

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