Now that the 2012 NFL Draft is complete and rosters look about the way they will when training camps open in late July, it's time to start the speculation train full steam ahead to fantasy draft days. Many players taken in this class will have a fantasy impact, some immediate, some in small spurts as rookies and some not for years to come.
Here I've sifted through the crop of skill talent that was selected and slotted guys into 3 categories: 1.) Immediate Impact ; 2.) Late Flier Picks ; 3.) Watch List. These categories do not include all of the 74 combined QBs (11), RBs (19), WRs (33) and TEs (11) that were drafted, but instead focus on the guys I consider most likely to make noise this season and omit those that are the likeliest to warm the bench or struggle to find fantasy relevance (I'm looking at you Brandon Weeden and Ryan Tannehill).
The players in each category are listed in descending order of the level of impact you can expect from them as a rookie, with their draft round and overall selection indicated in parentheses. Guesstimated draft ranges are included, though obviously subject to change based on preseason play/injuries.
Immediate Impact – These are the guys that should be drafted in all leagues and have strong value as either starters or high-end backups.
Trent Richardson, RB, Cleveland Browns (1, 3)
– Other than the fact that Richardson will play in the NFL's blackest and bluest division, there's really nothing to not love about this back. He will be the epitome of a feature back, with a highly versatile skillset that will allow him to beat opposing defenses with force, speed and shiftiness as both a runner and a pass catcher. Given his violent running style, durability is a slight concern, but then again, the same has been said for years about Adrian Peterson and all he's done is be a fantasy beast. Richardson is of a similar mold in an even thicker package and will excel from Day 1 behind a strong offensive line. Expect this No. 1 fantasy back to be on the cover of many fantasy magazines heading into 2013. I'd take him before the likes of Michael Turner, Marshawn Lynch, Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, DeMarco Murray, etc., etc., etc. In keeper leagues he's worth taking as high as the 3rd running back and in all leagues he should go in the first 12-18 picks.
Doug Martin, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1, 31)
– With the combination of Martin and the bruising LeGarrette Blount, expect the Bucs to contend for the league lead in rushing attempts under new head coach Greg Schiano. This team wants to be a physical, punch-you-in-the-mouth type of team and it will establish that early with this pair. Given that Martin's skillset is very reminiscent of Ray Rice, Schiano's best college player from his Rutgers days, you can bank on Martin seeing at least 200 total touches with the likelihood that he gets closer to 300. While Blount will still get his share, it would not be surprising to see a similar timeshare that Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs maintained for the Giants in 2010 when Bradshaw saw 276 carries to Jacobs' 147. Given that Blount is a better big back than Jacobs and that the Bucs should actually run the ball more than that overall, I'd say a more reasonable split to expect is about 240-200, with Martin adding about 30+ catches. Obviously, this means you should be taking Martin ahead of Blount and that he's good for No. 2 RB production. Look for Martin in the 18-22 range at RB and somewhere around 45-55 overall.
Robert Griffin III, QB, Washington Redskins (1, 2)
– Griffin will be one of the most dynamic rookies, but he will not be Cam Newton. With an average-to-good supply of weapons at his disposal, he should have a more efficient, albeit less productive, passing campaign than Newton did as a rookie and he will not come close to matching the preposterous rushing totals Newton posted. But he will be worth drafting as an early reserve QB with upside to be a marginal No. 1 by the end of the season. Look for him to come off the board in most non-dynasty leagues in the 12-15 range of all QBs and in the neighborhood of 100-120 overall, with an obvious bump up draft boards in dynasty leagues for his long-term upside.
Justin Blackmon, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars (1, 5)
– Many simply wrote off Blackmon the moment he was selected by the Jaguars, assuming the shaky play of Blaine Gabbert would drastically limit his production. It would be a mistake to do that, however. Talent is talent and it usually rises, regardless of circumstances. Blackmon brings the skillset to be a No. 1 for the Jags and with the free agent addition of Laurent Robinson, the further maturation of Gabbert and the presence of offensive-minded head coach Mike Mularkey, Jacksonville's passing game should make significant strides. Last year the Jags completed just 240 passes as a team, good for 31st in the league. With a full offseason for Gabbert to develop chemistry with a much stronger receiving corps, I'd expect that number to rise to about 300 and anticipate Blackmon being the recipient of around 60 of them. With his ability to pick up yards after the catch, that could translate to roughly 800-900 yards and 6-8 scores. I like Blackmon in the 25-30 range at WR and coming off the board beginning in round 7 of all leagues.
Michael Floyd, WR, Arizona Cardinals (1, 13)
– The presence of Larry Fitzgerald does nothing but boost Floyd's stock, particularly for his first season as a pro. Besides the invaluable tutelage he'll undoubtedly receive, it's a virtual certainty that Floyd will never see double coverage with Fitzgerald opposite him and will always draw a defense's second best corner. With his combination of size, speed and strong hands Floyd could be a 60+ catch rookie regardless of who's under center for the Cards, and his ability to post up a defender and win jump balls will also make him a true presence in the red zone. Floyd may not become anything more than a No. 3 receiver as a rookie, but the potential is there given his physical attributes for him to be a consistent fantasy factor every week. Look for him as a reserve beginning in about the 8th round of most leagues, somewhere in the range of 25-30 at the WR position.
Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts (1, 1)
– Two things will be working in Luck's favor this season as far as his production goes: 1.) the Colts did an excellent job adding weapons for him through the draft & 2.) the Indy defense will be downright dreadful in 2012. With two strong receiving tight ends, one in Coby Fleener that Luck obviously has a chemistry with, two promising speedsters in T.Y. Hilton and Lavon Brazill, a sure-handed slot guy in Austin Collie and a savvy ring-leader in Reggie Wayne, Luck will have enough options to move the ball through the air. Throw in the fact that the Colts have a limited run game and a defense that will force them to consistently play from behind and you have the recipe for a strong rookie year. The safe expectation should be 3,000 yards and 18 touchdowns, making it conceivable that Luck will be a solid backup option all year. If I get an elite level QB early, I'd be completely comfortable waiting until very late in a draft to add Luck and wouldn't be shocked if he played his way into fringe starter by the season's end. Look for him late in all leagues beginning about round 12 in the 15-18 range for QBs. In dynasty leagues, he should be one of the first backup QBs off the board.
David Wilson, RB, New York Giants (1, 32)
– The Giants did not draft Wilson to have him watch Bradshaw run the ball all day long, especially considering they haven't drafted a RB in the first round since Ron Dayne in 2000. Though Wilson doesn't come in with the incredible resume that Dayne brought into that season, he does bring tremendous elusiveness and elite lateral quickness to the league. With Bradshaw's foot issues causing him to miss games last year and threatening his career, don't be shocked if this becomes a relatively even split of carries early in the season. Given that possibility, Wilson is a candidate for about 700-900 total yards and should be drafted as one of the higher end backups, somewhere in the neighborhood of 35-40 at RB in roughly round 9 of all leagues.
Coby Fleener, TE, Indianapolis Colts (2, 34)
– As the obvious security blanket for Luck in Year 1, Fleener should finish as the second leading receiver for the Colts behind Wayne. He combines great length and speed with excellent hands to snatch passes away from his long frame. He should be one of the top red zone threats for Indy and will do a nice job stretching the middle of the field when matched up with linebackers and safeties. It's unlikely he'll produce like a No. 1 TE, but he should be a good backup option and bye-week replacement as a guy who could go for about 700 yards and 5-7 scores. Fleener should be a good late-round selection as a backup to a lower tier starting TE, and should come off the board beginning in about round 13 of most leagues.
Late Flier Picks – These are the guys that could contribute this season but their floors are too low to warrant anything other than a late throw-of-the-dart pick.
Isaiah Pead, RB, St. Louis Rams (2, 50)
– With basically no one else of consequence behind an aging and oft-injured Steven Jackson, Pead has value as a late flier. The young back out of Cincinnati has great speed and explosive playmaking ability and should see an early role as a complementary back to the bruising Jackson, as well as likely taking over return duties. It's a major stretch to think Pead could achieve similar success, but you have to consider that Jeff Fisher drafted a similar-sized speed back in Tennessee that turned out okay. Fisher's old school, run-first mentality bumps Pead's grade up a bit and makes him worth grabbing for his upside beginning in round 10 or so.
Lamar Miller, RB, Miami Dolphins (4, 97)
– Coming into the draft, the Dolphins were certainly not the most running back needy team. And while Miller offers a blend of Reggie Bush's speed and Daniel Thomas' size, he'll still likely enter the season behind both of them on the depth chart. If he moves up in the preseason, he moves to the list above since that gives him a chance to make some legitimate noise as a rookie. The Dolphins are likely to employ the zone-blocking scheme that new head coach Joe Philbin ran in Green Bay as their offensive coordinator and that system fits Miller's skillset quite well. He could use his explosive burst and 4.4-speed to hit cutback lanes and immediately get into the second level in that scheme, which would allow him to rack up yards in chunks. Assuming he enters the year third on the depth chart however, he's not worth drafting any earlier than the 12th round of most leagues.
Robert Turbin, RB, Seattle Seahawks (4, 106)
– The man with The Hulk's arms was drafted as an insurance policy for Lynch and that's exactly what he should be in all fantasy leagues. Considering Lynch's highly physical running style lends itself to injury, Turbin could end up seeing a significant role next year as Seattle's only real threat for carries behind Lynch. With very good size (5-10, 220), deceptive speed and nice hands out of the backfield, Turbin is a true every-down back and a must handcuff to Lynch. He's worth drafting just after the top tier of backups, beginning in about the 10th round of all leagues.
Brian Quick, WR, St. Louis Rams (2, 33)
– If Quick can absorb an NFL playbook, learn to run smoother routes and adjust to the level of competition early in the year, he could be a steal for the Rams and fantasy owners. At 6-4, 220 and with 4.5-speed he has all the physical tools to excel at the next level, but coming from tiny Appalachian State, and with a limited football background, he has developmental concerns that make him too risky to take as anything more than a flier. If he builds chemistry with Sam Bradford and puts the mental game together with his physical ability, he'll easily be the Rams' No. 1 receiver and a threat for 800+ yards and 6-8 scores. Consider taking him as your final bench spot in all leagues.
Stephen Hill, WR, New York Jets (2, 43)
– Hill is the Jets' No. 2 wide receiver right now. Unfortunately, after witnessing Mark Sanchez fall apart at times in 2011 and Tim Tebow struggle desperately to hit his targets, it's hard to fall in love with Hill. And that's without even considering the fact that he comes from a triple-option offense at Georgia Tech in which he caught a measly 28 balls last year. Still, he is the No. 2. And he brings an amazing blend of size at 6-4, 215 and 4.36-speed. With improvement to his route running and chemistry with his quarterbacks, he could become a playmaker early just because of his physical tools. Think Denarius Moore but with size. The marriage of opportunity and upside makes Hill worth a roll of the dice in about round 14 of most leagues.
Mohamed Sanu, WR, Cincinatti Bengals (3, 83)
– Sanu has the chance to be a terrific possession receiver for the Bengals as their No. 4 option in the passing game. While A.J. Green and Jermaine Gresham will dominate the most attention from opposing secondaries and Jordan Shipley will handle most of the slot duties, Sanu should see limited coverage and could possibly find himself often shadowed by a smaller nickelback. He has the hands, route running polish and after-the-catch ability to become a great friend of Andy Dalton's and it would not shock if he approached 50 catches as a rookie. He should be available in all leagues as a final bench spot, and could be worth a gamble.
Kendall Wright, WR, Tennessee Titans (1, 20)
– With all of Kenny Britt, Nate Washington, Jared Cook and Damian Williams needing to get fed in the passing game, it's hard to see how much Wright will fit in early in 2012. Even though he's a legit playmaker, it may take an injury for his role to expand, and even then, this is not one of the better passing attacks in the league. Given that he was selected in the first round, however, you have to imagine the Titans have a plan for getting him involved. Considering his upside, taking a late round stab on the former Baylor star couldn't hurt.
Alshon Jeffery, WR, Chicago Bears (2, 45)
– Big, strong, athletic, gifted, lazy. All are words that can be used to describe the Bears' second round selection. Another word that fits Jeffery well going into his rookie year is "upside"—as in he has a lot of it. Though he created a good amount of concern among NFL personnel men for his weight and attitude—both of which seemed inflated in a bad way his final year at South Carolina—Jeffery comes into a situation that should suit him well. There is a lot of veteran leadership in Chicago and quarterback Jay Cutler and similarly mercurial receiver Brandon Marshall should keep Jeffery in check and working hard. Since he could step into camp as the third receiver behind Marshall and Earl Bennett, it's possible that Jeffery emerges as the tremendous talent everyone saw in 2010 when he posted 88 catches for 1,517 yards in the SEC. With that in mind, if he's not a blimp when he goes to camp, Jeffery is worth grabbing for a final bench spot in most leagues.
Watch List – These are the guys to put on your free agent "scout team" and keep an eye on as the season progresses. If their opportunity and/or performance begin to rise, they become priority free agents worth stashing on the bench.
Ryan Broyles, WR, Detroit Lions (2, 54)
– Broyles has a good chance of starting the year on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list because of an ACL tear he suffered in November of his senior year. But he is worth watching because of the extraordinary production he had as the NCAA career-leader in receptions while at Oklahoma. He brings the route running savvy of a 10-year vet and has hands to make even the toughest catches. He will be the Lions' No. 2 receiver by the start of the 2013 season.
T.Y. Hilton, WR, Indianapolis Colts (3, 92)
– One of my favorite sleepers from this class, Hilton comes into Indy as the immediate No. 3 receiver behind Wayne and Collie. With his combination of hands and big-time speed, this little playmaker could make an early impact as a receiver that lines up all over the field and doubles as a return man. Keep a close eye on this one.
LaMichael James, RB, San Francisco 49ers (2, 61)
– The quickness and acceleration that James brings to the Niners adds a totally new dynamic to their generally plodding offense. Unfortunately, he enters an extremely crowded backfield that includes Frank Gore, Kendall Hunter and Brandon Jacobs. If an injury opens the door to more carries, however, James is worth a look for his explosive big-play ability.
Marvin McNutt, WR, Philadelphia Eagles (6, 194)
– While veteran Jason Avant has been a steady, albeit unspectacular No. 3 for the Eagles the past few seasons, he is not as big or as talented a receiver as McNutt, who reminds me of an Anquan Boldin type possession target. McNutt's feel for route running stems from his experience as a quarterback and his superb hands allow him to consistently catch most balls outside his frame. It would not surprise if he worked his way into the rotation quickly.
Rueben Randle, WR, New York Giants (2, 63)
– Randle has the size and overall speed to contribute early on the outside for the Giants, but he lacks the polish as a route runner that could lead to him struggling at times. Since Hakeem Nicks has missed time in each of his three seasons, however, Randle could be worth a spot start or two if he earns the No. 3 receiver role over Ramses Barden.
Ronnie Hillman, RB, Denver Broncos (3, 67)
– The diminutive Hillman figures to take on a Darren Sproles-esque role for the Broncos. Though he doesn't have quite the lightning quickness of Sproles, he is a dynamic scatback with even a little more bulk than New Orleans' do-it-all mighty mite. As a pass catcher out of the backfield and complement to Willis McGahee, he could have some deep league, flex-start type value.
Chris Givens, WR, St. Louis Rams (4, 96)
– Givens is a speedster with more polish as a route runner than Quick, so he could earn a bigger role in the offense early. If he develops good rapport with Bradford, the door is wide open for him to put up numbers with no clear pecking order in the Rams' receiver rotation.
A.J. Jenkins, WR, San Francisco 49ers (1, 30)
– Obviously the Niners saw enough talent in Jenkins to make the speedster their first round pick, so despite a top-heavy receiving corps that includes Michael Crabtree, Vernon Davis, Randy Moss and Mario Manningham, one has to imagine they plan to get him involved somehow. Considering Crabtree and Manningham have both had injury issues in the past and you just never know what Moss you're going to get, Jenkins could ultimately have spot start value.
B.J. Cunningham, WR, Miami Dolphins (6, 183)
– Cunningham is the type of receiver that is not exceptional in any one area, but does pretty much everything well. He's an experienced route runner with strong hands, and best of all, he enters a situation that offers plenty of opportunity for someone to emerge, as the Dolphins have no clear No. 1 receiver. He's a long shot for sure, but one worth watching.
Greg Childs, WR, Minnesota Vikings (4, 132)
– Prior to a knee injury in the 2010 season, Childs was clearly the best receiver of the trio of Arkansas pass catchers to be drafted in the fourth round. At 6-3, 220 he is easily one of the Vikings biggest wide receivers, and with just Michael Jenkins opposite Percy Harvin, 40 or so catches are his for the taking.
Nick Toon, WR, New Orleans Saints (4, 122)
– You have to closely watch any receiving option in the elite pass attacks, and New Orleans pretty much tops them all. If Toon can beat out Adrian Arrington for the No. 4 receiver spot, he has a chance to post upwards of 30+ catches. An injury or two to other guys and that number could potentially double.
Keshawn Martin, WR, Houston Texans (4, 121)
– Martin is a quicker-than-fast, slippery receiver who can line up all over the field and return kicks. With the Texans' dearth of receiver depth behind Andre Johnson, you know they'll get Martin on the field early. But the Texans remain a run-first team, so it's hard to see Martin or fellow rookie wideout DeVier Posey doing much damage in Year 1.
Dan Herron, RB, Cincinnati Bengals (6, 191)
– If Herron sticks on the roster, he has a chance to earn some playing time in a thin Bengals backfield. BenJarvus Green-Ellis figures to be the feature back with Bernard Scott playing a complementary role as primarily a third-down back. Behind them there is nothing at the moment, so Herron, who is a quick, patient runner, could sneak into the rotation.
Terrance Ganaway, RB, New York Jets (6, 202)
– Ganaway is easily the Jets' biggest back at about 240 pounds. If they truly want to return to a ground and pound attack, they may keep him around and teach him how to run like a big back. He's shifty for his size with deceptive speed, but he ran out of a spread attack in college and didn't exactly push piles so much as he ran through arm tackles after building a head of steam going through gigantic holes. If the Jets turn to Tebow Time though with option looks, watch out for this big, nimble ball carrier.
Chris Polk, RB, Philadelphia Eagles (undrafted)
– One of the sad stories of the draft, Polk fell from projections of a 2nd or 3rd-round pick all the way out of the discussion due to teams' concerns over his injury history. The Eagles had the sense to sign the highly productive college rusher and as a three-down back with excellent running strength and natural hands, he fits their system well. Expect him to replace Ronnie Brown as the physical component of their backfield, and if something were to happen to LeSean McCoy, he'd be worth scooping up.