Reggie Bush

After three mostly healthy seasons in Miami and Detroit, Bush once again had trouble staying on the field last season, battling through ankle and back injuries in an inconsistent season. Signed by the 49ers, the 30-year-old Bush will provide a veteran presence in a young backfield, and while in theory his elusiveness and receiving skills should mesh well with the read-option scheme new offensive coordinator Geep Chryst wants to run through Colin Kaepernick, second-year back Carlos Hyde and fourth-round pick Mike Davis have younger, fresher legs. Hyde and Davis also have the potential to stay on the field even on passing downs, so Bush could have a hard time getting significant touches unless there's a rash of injuries that somehow misses him.

Bush and the Lions get a new offensive coordinator this year, and it's a familiar one for the 29-year-old rusher – Joe Lombardi, former quarterbacks coach for the Saints. Lombardi's bringing the New Orleans offensive system with him to Detroit, which may mean even more pass attempts from Matt Stafford and a reduced carry load for Bush and backup Joique Bell. Bush and Bell already caught 107 balls nearly evenly split between them last year, and that number could actually rise further this season as they figuratively step into the shoes of Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles, respectively. So while Bush could see his carries dip under 200 for the first time in four years, he could see a spike in receptions – especially if he can improve on last year's mediocre 67.5 percent catch rate. Though Bush missed two games to injury last year and flagged over the season's final two contests, he finished the year totally healthy, posted his second career 1,000-yard rushing season, and averaged more than 100 yards from scrimmage per game. He even saw a career-high six goal-line rushes, though he's still going to score the majority of his touchdowns on long runs. That home-run potential is his primary fantasy allure.

After two years in Miami in which he played 15 games in 2011 and 16 games last year, the once injury-prone Bush proved he can stay healthy enough to be a lead back. At 6-0, 200, and with game-breaking speed, Bush can gash a defense both as a runner and a receiver, qualities that should net him the bigger half of the timeshare with Mikel Leshoure, who will likely see most of the short-yardage work. While he will lose goal-line opportunities to the bigger Leshoure (9-for-14 inside the 10-yard line in 2012), Bush figures to provide plenty of value in the receiving department, especially in PPR leagues. With Titus Young out of the picture and Ryan Broyles coming back from his second ACL tear in two years, Bush should be among the league leaders in targets for running backs, and coach Jim Schwartz has already expressed his desire for Bush to see 60-80 passes this season.

Despite a major downgrade in offensive environment going from New Orleans to Miami, Bush easily had the best season of his career, rushing for 1,086 yards (his previous high was 581), adding another 296 through the air while scoring seven total touchdowns. He also managed 5.0 YPC and generally held up physically while acting as a lead back for the first time since turning pro. Despite all the extra playing time, his 43 receptions were actually the second fewest of his six-year career (though new coach Joe Philbin has suggested he’ll change that this year). Moreover, Pro Football Focus graded Bush as the 62nd back out of 67, but that had a lot to do with his horrendous blocking, which won’t matter to fantasy owners as long as it doesn’t affect his playing time. The Dolphins took Lamar Miller early in the fourth round of the draft, and Daniel Thomas could improve as a sophomore, but Bush remains the favorite for touches in Miami’s backfield. The loss of Brandon Marshall combined with the likely eventual move to rookie Ryan Tannehill at QB over Matt Moore/David Garrard, who was competent last season, could lead to an already below average offense being even worse in 2012.

Bush missed half of last season after suffering a broken leg, and he was never truly healthy after returning, so it was essentially a lost year. Bush is a situational player who has little value outside of PPR formats. Miami has nowhere near the potent offense that the Saints possess so it would seem likely that Bush's numbers would decline. Miami has already announced that the plan is to get Bush 10-12 touches per game so as not to wear him down, and those touches won't be near the goal line. The good news is that Chad Henne doesn't have the nickname "Capt Checkdown" for nothing as he does like to dump the ball off, and may do so even more with Reggie popping out of the backfield.

Despite playing in the most games (14) since his rookie season, Bush was given just 70 carries and recorded 47 receptions — both career-lows. His 5.6 YPC mark was easily a career high, but that’s easy to do when given just five attempts per game on the No. 1 offense in football. Bush is an effective receiver, but he simply can’t break tackles, as he had the second lowest percent of yards after contact in the NFL. The loss of Mike Bell has the Saints’ RB depth chart a little less crowded, but New Orleans plans on giving Bush a similar workload in 2010. He’s ignored at the goal line, an injury risk and 61 running backs were given more carries than he was last season, so there’s not much upside here.

The final stats show Bush played in 10 games last season, but he was healthy in only eight, as a knee injury limited him in two he didn’t outright miss. So in essentially a half season’s work, Bush totaled 844 yards and six touchdowns – elite production. His YPC (3.8) remained low, but because he averaged 5.2 receptions per game (and a career-best 8.5 yards-per-catch), Bush’s activity in the passing game more than made up for it. For a back so electric during his collegiate days at USC, the lack of big plays at the NFL level is surprising – last year’s one run for 40-plus yards was the first of his career. Bush also struggles in short-yardage, which is why he saw just one goal-line carry last season. Still, he’s elusive in space and is one of the best receiving backs in the league. Bush will be returning from microfracture surgery to his knee, but early reports suggest he’s ahead of schedule, and he’s refocused himself toward football during the offseason. Bush’s value should get bumped way up in PPR formats, and he remains plenty useful in standard leagues because of his activity in the league’s best passing attack.

After averaging just 3.6 YPC during his rookie season, Bush got only 3.7 last year, fumbling a league-high seven times in the process. Despite being so explosive in college, Bush had just three carries for 20-plus yards and none for more than 40. Even after becoming the team's feature back when Deuce McAllister went down for the season in Week 3, Bush only scored six times and didn't record a single 100- yard rushing game. It's safe to say he's been a major disappointment as a pro. Bush has regressed as a running back since entering the NFL, losing patience and lacking vision when searching for holes. He racks up receptions, averaging six catches per contest last year, but managed just 5.7 yards per catch. Because he struggles with breaking tackles, Bush is most effective in open space and as a situational player, not as a lead back. Bush's season ended prematurely last year with a torn PCL, and it's possible he played a few games with the injury, which can partially explain the lackluster performance. The Saints have one of the league's best passing offenses, and McAllister is coming off two more knee surgeries, including one of the microfracture variety, so little should be expected of him. Bush enters 2008 fully recovered from his own knee injury and has proclaimed a rededication to the game of football. Still, Pierre Thomas showed more potential in one game at the end of last season than Bush has for most of the last two years, so Thomas could be in line for increased touches. We've already seen what Bush can do as a feature back, and the ceiling isn't all that high. Bush's value gets a major boost in PPR leagues.

Bush’s rookie season was a mixed bag, as he only managed 3.6 YPC and often found himself dancing behind the line far too long while waiting for holes to develop. Short-yardage situations never figured to be Bush’s specialty, but he’s quite effective in the passing game, catching 88 balls for 742 yards last year. Bush received 20 carries in a game just once and is being worked perfectly in order to maintain long-term health. Coach Sean Payton is a talented offensive mind and lines up Bush in ways to confuse opposing defenses. It may have taken a while, but Payton discovered how to best utilize Bush’s talents late in the year. In the final seven weeks (including the postseason), Bush accumulated 770 total yards and nine touchdowns. Surprisingly, Bush’s longest run of the season was only 18 yards, as he was most effective in the open field after the catch. He had receptions that went for 61, 74 and 88 yards. Bush received 122 looks in the passing game, which led all running backs, and only 22 wide receivers had more than that. New Orleans had the game’s most productive offense last season, tallying nearly 400 yards per game, so there are plenty of touches to go around, even if Deuce McAllister remains a big part of the offense. Since Bush isn’t in near the goal line, he doesn’t have quite the same upside as Maurice Jones-Drew, but if the second half of last year is any indication, he’s only going to get better the more he adjusts to the pro game. In point-per-reception leagues, his value gets a boost.

Fantasy football mirrors real life more often than we care to admit sometimes and the biggest storyline at your draft table this year might well be where Bush gets taken. Based on talent alone, he would deserve to go in the upper half of the first round, despite the fact that he has yet to take an NFL snap. Bush’ speed, acceleration, running instincts and multi-faceted game have earned him comparisons to all-time greats like Gale Sayers and Marshall Faulk for a reason. Playing under the spotlight for the Trojans is as good a preparation for the pros as any college program has to offer, and with the Saints he will be given every opportunity to excel and become a player the team, and the city, can rally around. There are, however, some major risks with Bush that have to be taken into account. First and foremost, there's Deuce McAllister. Bush’s abilities in the return game could actually be a liability for his fantasy value. Much like McAllister, who spent his first season with the Saints returning kickoffs and caddying for Ricky Williams, Bush could make a good deal of his contributions on special teams and as a third-down back in 2006 while the Saints give McAllister a chance to prove he’s healthy, and position themselves to extract the maximum possible return in a trade. Of course another McAllister breakdown solves that problem before it even becomes one for Bush owners. The rookie also has to prove that his lack of bulk, (5-10, 200), won’t be a handicap and that he’ll be able to withstand the rigors of a full NFL season. The last rookie running back to become an instant fantasy superstar was Clinton Portis in 2002. In the three years since only a handful of rookies (Domanick Davis in ’03, Kevin Jones in ’04 and Carnell Williams in ’05) have even broken through the 1,000-yard rushing mark. If everything falls right for Bush he could easily surpass all of them, but a lot of pieces have to fall into place before Week 1 for that to happen.