Coby Fleener

His New Orleans debut doesn't look all that bad on the stat sheet, but remember the Saints threw him a five-year, $36 million contract and most fantasy owners were slotting Fleener as a no-brainer TE1. Fleener is whistling a public tune with 2017 on the way, saying he expects to be "more effective" now that he's had a full season in Sean Payton's offense. We'd like to buy that narrative, but we also have to note that Fleener's production went down in the second half of 2016. He had 359 yards in his first eight games and just 272 yards in the final two months of the year, finishing out the season with only 84 yards (and no touchdowns) over the final four weeks. He also accounted for just three of his team's 38 receiving scores while finishing a distant fourth in yardage to the wideout trio of Michael Thomas, Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead. Cooks' departure does free up some targets, but free-agent acquisition Ted Ginn figures to take on quite a few of those. Anyone under the Superdome roof is capable of carrying fantasy value -- that's a nod to how prolific Payton and Drew Brees are -- but the Fleener upside we could envision a year ago has since come down significantly. New Orleans has plenty of dynamic options on offense, and Fleener doesn't quite make it to that group.

If Fleener was hurt when the Colts chose Dwayne Allen over him in free agency, he got over it quickly after signing a five-year, $36 million deal with the Saints. New Orleans is seemingly the perfect setup for Fleener - catching Drew Brees' passes in an offense that is routinely among the league leaders in attempts and that makes tight end a priority. Plus, he won't have to share the position this season like he did the last four years in Indianapolis with Allen. Fleener averaged 88 targets the last three years, but his efficiency took a hit last season, partly because Andrew Luck missed nine games. Fleener's YPC and YPT were both career lows, and he had four catches of 20-plus yards after 16 the year before. That should change this year. Ben Watson, now with Baltimore, had 110 targets as the Saints' primary TE last season, with 11.1 YPC, 7.5 YPT, 13 catches of 20-plus yards and six TDs. At 6-6, 251, with 4.51 speed and a 37-inch vertical, Fleener has Watson beat on all the measures, and he's eight years younger. Fleener could thrive in the red zone, too. The only big-bodied wide receivers available are 6-6 Brandon Coleman, who had three red-zone targets last season, and 6-3 rookie Michael Thomas. The 6-5 Josh Hill is still around, but he didn't have nearly the impact most expected in the wake of Jimmy Graham's departure.

Fleener emerged as a big-play threat last season in his third year. He had only five more targets than in 2013 and one less catch, but he made better use of his opportunities, averaging 15.2 yards per reception, second among tight ends. Andrew Luck targeted him 13 times on passes of at least 20 yards (1st), and he had 16 catches of 20-plus yards (2nd) and 8.4 YPT (5th). Dangerous in the open field, he averaged 6.0 yards after the catch (3rd). Fleener would fare even better if he simply improved his catch rate — 55.4 percent, 33rd among qualified tight ends last year. At 6-6, 251, with elite 4.51 speed, Fleener has the prototypical size/speed combination for the position. He might be poised for a breakout, if he didn't share targets with Dwayne Allen. With Allen, who took 50 targets last season, Fleener's ceiling is limited, especially at the goal line. Fleener was targeted six times inside the 10-yard line, catching five for touchdowns, while Allen went 6-for-6 with five scores. The Colts were the first team in NFL history to have two tight ends with eight touchdowns each. Fleener got a taste of life without Allen late in the year when the latter was limited or sidelined by injuries in five of the last seven games. In that span, Fleener totaled 391 yards and four touchdowns. In seven of 11 games alongside Allen, though, Fleener had less than 35 yards.

After sharing the tight-end targets in 2012, Fleener had the position to himself last year when Dwayne Allen went down with a season-ending hip injury in Week 1. Fleener, though, never became a consistent threat in the passing game. He was partly held back by having to block more with Allen out. But he also caught just 59.3 percent of his targets (34th among qualified TE), topped 100 yards once and failed to surpass 25 yards seven times, with three games of less than 10 yards. He also scored just once in the last nine games as his red-zone work dried up in the second half of the season. He and Allen are expected to play in more two-TE sets this year, and Fleener will also play in the slot. At 6-6, 251, with elite speed for the position, Fleener has the tools to make a bigger impact, but he is sure to see a decrease in targets this season with Allen back healthy (as well as Reggie Wayne, whose season ended Week 7) and Hakeem Nicks added to the wideout corps.

Through last season's first seven games, Fleener was on pace for nearly 50 receptions and 500 yards, but after missing time with a shoulder injury, he caught just one pass in each of the final five contests. Still, Fleener showed he's a good receiver with plus speed and good agility. He'll likely share targets with Dwayne Allen, who emerged as Andrew Luck's top tight-end after Fleener went down. Fleener's rapport with his former college quarterback is a plus.

The Colts selected Fleener with the 34th pick in the 2012 draft, pairing him with his college quarterback Andrew Luck. One of Luck’s favorite targets at Stanford, Fleener finished his senior season with 667 receiving yards and a team-high 10 touchdowns. Both fast and powerful, Fleener clocked a 4.45 40 at Stanford’s pro day (he didn’t run at the NFL Combine due to an ankle injury) and ranked second among tight ends at the NFL Combine with 27 bench presses at 225 pounds. While scouts say he has improved, his blocking ability is considered his biggest weakness. Fortunately, that’s not what counts in the fantasy world, provided it doesn’t cost him snaps. At 6-6, 247, Fleener has good hands and gets open down field by running smooth pass routes. He’ll likely share some targets with Dwayne Allen, whom the Colts drafted in the third round, but long-time Colt Dallas Clark is out of the picture, leaving the starting job to Fleener. His familiarity with Luck should make Fleener a prime target, and if the Colts passing attack succeeds this season, Fleener should make an immediate impact.