Reggie Wayne

The 35-year old Wayne was actually having his most efficient season since 2008 when he tore his ACL in Week 7. After a five-year decline in yards per target, culminating in a meager 6.9 in 2012, Wayne was averaging 8.7 a year ago and on pace for 87 catches and 1,143 yards. Of course, a seven-game sample doesn’t make the five-year decline go away; that he’s at an age where most receivers have long retired and is coming off an ACL tear doesn’t help his cause. Assuming he’s 100 percent healthy for training camp, Wayne should return as one of Andrew Luck’s top targets and again serve as the chain-mover into which he’s evolved. (Wayne has zero catches of 40 or more yards over his last two seasons, spanning 23 games). Big plays and red-zone targets are more likely to fall to newly signed Hakeem Nicks, T.Y. Hilton and tight ends Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener.

While you won't hear fantasy owners complain, Wayne wasn't all that good last season. For starters, while he hauled in 106 balls for 1,355 yards, he needed 195 targets to do so, resulting in a meager 6.9 YPT (31st out of 39 100-target WR). His 12.8 YPC was in line with his performance in recent seasons, but a far cry from his peak years with Peyton Manning when he twice eclipsed 15. While Wayne did have 22 catches of 20 yards or more (5th), he had zero of 40-plus despite the huge number of targets. That Wayne scored only five touchdowns despite 18 red-zone looks (T-12th), 10 from inside the 10 (T-5th) and six from inside the five (T-1st) shows how ineffective he was from in close. At 6-0, 198, without deep speed and lacking the quickness he once had, Wayne gets by on route running and intelligence – along with preferential treatment from Andrew Luck. That might or might not persist in Wayne’s age-34 season. The team brought in Darrius Heyward-Bey to stretch the field, and Luck might spread the ball around more in his second year. Either way, even elite receivers rarely see upward of 170 targets (Calvin Johnson never had until 2012, for example), so expect a big drop-off in opportunity for Wayne no matter what.

Cursed with the combination of Curtis Painter and Dan Orlovsky, Wayne unsurprisingly turned in the least efficient season of his career, averaging just 7.3 YPT (24th) and scoring only four touchdowns on 131 targets. At 33, Wayne isn’t as fast as he once was, and at 6-0, 198, has only average size. He’s still a polished route runner, and after dropping 12 balls in 2010, botched only two chances last year. The Colts apparently still think he has something left in the tank as they signed him to a three-year extension in March, with $7.5 million guaranteed. He’ll partner up this season with rookie No. 1 overall pick Andrew Luck, one of the most NFL-ready quarterbacks to come out of college in the last decade. We’d expect the targets and receptions to be there as usual, but unless the Colts go back to using Wayne heavily in the red zone, the touchdowns will likely be scarce again in 2012.

Wayne had another strong year with 111 catches and 1,355 receiving yards, but it was strictly due to volume. On a per-play basis, he had his worst season since 2003. Wayne averaged just 12.2 YPC and 7.7 YPT despite catching passes from Peyton Manning. Moreover, while Wayne's declining per-play production used to be offset by prolific red-zone chances, last season he saw just 19 (tied for 13th) despite getting the second most overall targets (176) in the league. And while Wayne led the NFL with 15 targets inside the 10 and 10 inside the five in 2009, those numbers dropped to seven (tied for 30th) and five (tied for 14th), respectively. The result was a meager six touchdowns. While Wayne did have four catches of 40 or more yards, he had just 13 of 20 or more (tied for 22nd). And he was second in the league in dropped passes with 12. Some of Wayne's drop-off was probably due to increased attention when Dallas Clark and Austin Collie went down. But while their return will give him more space to operate, it'll also cut into his targets. At age 32, Wayne could still bounce back, but his skills and importance to the team are on the wane.

It doesn't get much better than being Peyton Manning's No. 1 receiver and the leading insidethe- 10 and goal-line target in the NFL. Wayne parlayed his average size and speed into the fifth best fantasy receiving numbers in the league last year thanks to his league-leading 15 inside-the-10 and 10 inside-the-five targets. Moreover, he compiled these numbers in essentially 14 games as the Colts mailed it in during their final two contests. In terms of efficiency, Wayne was solid - 8.5 yards per target - but not spectacular. He hauled in 67 percent of the balls thrown his way, sixth among the 28 100-target receivers, but averaged only 12.6 yards per catch (20th) and had just one reception of 40 yards or more. There's little doubt if Wayne sees another 150 targets overall and 10-15 from in close that he'll be near the top of the receiving leaderboards in 2010. But the emergence of Pierre Garcon, a bigger, faster and more dynamic player, could cut into Wayne's opportunities, and at the very least, relegate him to the Hines Ward role Wayne had last year - trusted redzone possession option. If that trend continues, then Wayne's upside will be limited, and that's not accounting for an expansion of Austin Collie's role and the presence of star tight end Dallas Clark.

After leading the league in receiving yards in 2007, Wayne came crashing down to earth last year in part due to knee and ankle injuries, in part to a reduced role, especially in the red-zone, and in part due to an overall decline in the team’s passing efficiency. At 6-0, 198, and with good but not spectacular speed, Wayne relies on above-average quickness, superb route running, good hands and impeccable timing with one of the top quarterbacks in league history. While Wayne was targeted just 131 times a year ago – down from 156 in 2007 – he had to split looks with an unproductive Marvin Harrison (107 targets). Harrison, who missed 11 games during Wayne’s career year, has subsequently been released, and while Anthony Gonzalez should see more looks in his place, it’ll be a net gain for both players. What’s more concerning are Wayne’s lack of downfield plays (just three from 40-plus and 13 from 20-plus), and also the enormous drop-off in red-zone looks (he had just eight, tied for 52nd with Greg Camarillo and Michael Clayton among others). In fact, ineffective as he was, Harrison saw 19 red-zone looks (tied for 12th) and tight end Dallas Clark was second among tight ends with 21. But with Harrison gone, we expect Wayne to have a significant uptick in opportunities from in close this season as Wayne and Harrison had both been among the most heavily targeted wideouts in the league near pay dirt in 2006 and 2007. The key for Wayne is health – and we don’t mean suiting up for games as he’s been one of the most durable players in the league by that measure (the last game he missed was in 2001). Instead, he needs to avoid the Torry Holt career path where the receiver plays virtually every game, but is robbed of his explosiveness while fighting nagging ailments from which it’s more difficult to bounce back with each passing season. Should Wayne avoid that fate, there’s still a lot to like here: At 30, he’s in the late prime of his career, will enter camp as the team’s unquestioned No. 1 target and has Peyton Manning throwing him the ball.

We were a little surprised a year ago when we crunched the numbers and considered his situation that Wayne came out No. 2 on our wideout board. But in retrospect it made plenty of sense. Wayne led the league in yards per target (among receivers with 100 or more) in 2006 with 9.6, and he finished second in that department last year with 9.7. Wayne also added 19 more targets, 18 more catches, 200 more receiving yards and another touchdown to his 2006 totals, thanks in large part to Marvin Harrison's knee injury that made Wayne the team's sole No. 1 receiver for 11 games. At 6-0, 198, and with decent, but not blazing speed, Wayne isn't going to overmatch opposing defenders, but he runs crisp routes, has good hands and is quick enough to avoid defenders in the open field. Wayne's not going to outmuscle defensive backs for the ball, but he's tough enough to work the middle of the field and take some contact while making a catch. At 29, Wayne is in the prime of his career, hasn't missed a game since 2001, plays his home games in a dome and has Peyton Manning throwing him the ball. Moreover, Harrison, who turns 36 in August, isn't a lock to come back healthy (and at press time, he has legal problems), and even if he does, isn't likely to be Manning's top target ever again. Second-year man Anthony Gonzalez showed plenty of promise in his rookie season, but it's hard to imagine either player seeing nearly as many looks as Wayne in 2008. While Wayne probably doesn't have the upside of an athlete like Braylon Edwards, Wayne's floor is considerably higher given his experience, durability and the reliability of the Colts offense.

At 6-0, 198, and with decent but not outstanding speed, Wayne isn’t a game-breaking receiver in the mold of Steve Smith or Javon Walker. But if reliability and low-risk are your goals in the early rounds, it’s hard to do a lot better than Indianapolis’ No. 2 receiver. Wayne finished 2006 with 24 red-zone targets, five more than teammate Marvin Harrison, and nine goal-line targets, one more than his running mate. That Harrison hauled in seven of his eight for touchdowns gave him the edge in fantasy value last season, but Wayne averaged 15.2 yards per catch compared to Harrison’s 14.4, and Harrison turns 35 before the season, while Wayne is in the prime of his career at 28. Moreover, Wayne led the league in yards per target with 9.56 (minimum of 100 targets). Despite his unexceptional physical attributes, Wayne runs good, crisp routes, has good hands and uses his shiftiness to elude defenders after the catch. Wayne’s not going to outmuscle defensive backs for the ball, but he’s also not afraid to go over the middle and take some contact while making the catch. With Peyton Manning still at the top of his game and showing a consistent willingness to look for his top targets from in close, Wayne is as good a bet as any receiver on the board to finish in the top 10, even if he’s not the type to single-handedly win you your league.

After gorging himself at the 2004 Colts offensive feast, Wayne found the pickings were slimmer last year, as the Colts defense improved, and the offense became more conservative. Consequently, though quarterback Peyton Manning targeted Wayne the same number of times (122), those targets were not as far down the field, and Wayne’s per-catch average dropped a full three yards. While Wayne saw 20 targets in the red zone (eighth in the NFL), he converted just two of those into touchdowns. (Teammate Marvin Harrison converted six of 25 attempts into scores). As a result Wayne went for just five scores and had his lowest yardage output since 2003. Wayne’s not a burner, but he runs good, crisp routes, has good hands and uses his shiftiness to elude defenders after the catch. At 6-0, 198, Wayne’s not going to outmuscle defensive backs for the ball, but he’s not afraid to go over the middle and take some contact while making the catch. Even at age 34, Harrison will still be Manning’s favorite target but Wayne should continue to get his usual slice of the passing game pie. Wayne’s totals therefore depend on the size of the pie in 2006, something that will in large part turn on how reliable Edgerrin James’ replacements turn out to be, as well as the quality of the Colts defense this season.

It’s not often a team’s No. 2 receiver is a legitimate fantasy No. 1, but Wayne is one of the rare exceptions. Despite being targeted just 122 times, Wayne hauled in passes at a 63-percent rate, good for fifth in the NFL among receivers targeted more than 100 times. And Wayne’s 9.92 yards per pass attempt was good for fourth. In other words, the Colts averaged nearly 10 yards per play every time they called Wayne’s number. A good deal of this success and efficiency is attributable to Marvin Harrison and Edgerrin James drawing a majority of opposing defense’s focus and allowing Wayne to work one-on-one much of the time. Wayne isn’t exceptionally fast, but he has good quickness and runs crisp, precise routes. Wayne has good hands and is dangerous after the catch due to his shiftiness and ability to change directions without slowing down. At 6-0, 198 pounds, Wayne isn’t an ideal red-zone target, but the Colts are in the red zone so often that he saw more than his share of targets near the goal line, converting on 6-of-21 from inside the 20 and 3-of-7 from inside the five. Wayne might be just a notch below the elite receivers in terms of raw talent but given that he has more room to maneuver than almost any receiver in the top 20 and Peyton Manning throwing him the ball, he’s a good bet to repeat last season’s success.

Wayne’s red-zone skills and improving ability to exploit defenses ganging up on Marvin Harrison will make him a solid mid-round pick. Wayne was targeted 107 times last year and caught 64 percent of those throws. Most impressive were his 12 red-zone catches (four more than Marvin Harrison and just one off the NFL pace). The emergence of Brandon Stokley hurt Wayne in the second half of the season (just two scores to Stokley’s three). But Wayne clearly stepped up his game in ’03 and showed that he was worth the first-round pick Indy invested in him. Remember that his clear place behind Harrison in the Colts pecking order provides Wayne owners with very little upside should Harrison stay healthy all year.

Indianapolis brought in Qadry Ismail to be the No. 2 receiver last year, but ultimately Wayne was the best man for the job. Wayne quietly collected 509 yards in his final nine games, and now he's set to start from the get-go, with Ismail no longer in the picture. The shrewd players in the crowd know about Wayne, but he'll be a major bargain in less competitive leagues. A major breakthrough could be coming for the third-year receiver.