Rookie Hitter Tiers 1.0

With the top 400 prospect rankings+mailbag and first-year player draft rankings+blueprint in the books, I'm turning my eyes to evaluating prospects for 2023 value (dynasty rankings still on the way).

As I did last season, I'm splitting the rookie tiers series into hitter tiers and pitcher tiers. Up first are the hitters. Players are ranked within the tiers for 2023 value, but the tiers are generally more of a map than a strict ranking of all these hitters. I've written the outlooks on all the top guys, so check those out on the player pages if you want more detailed analysis.

There were several hitters who just barely exhausted prospect eligibility, but who I wanted to mention as intriguing flyers for 2023. Shea Langeliers (discount Cal Raleigh once he adds C eligibility early in the year), Kerry Carpenter (25-HR potential, even on strong side of platoon), Oswaldo Cabrera (defense could keep him in the lineup), Kyle Stowers (decent Statcast metrics, good early-season opportunity) and David Hensley (love his skill set, but unclear role) are hitters with under 200 MLB plate appearances who I like to varying degrees both short term and long term. In fact, I think most of the best young prospects to invest in this year have already debuted in the majors.

For each player, I've included their position eligibility, NFBC 15-team Draft Champions ADP from Jan. 1 - Jan. 23 as well as my NFBC player shares from my three completed NFBC Draft Champions (50 rounds, draft and hold) teams and five NFBC Gladiators (23 rounds, no bench/FAAB).

Up Opening Day

Corbin Carroll, OF, Diamondbacks (ADP: 73, Shares 3/8)

Gunnar Henderson, 3B, Orioles (ADP: 88, Shares 2/8)

The best of the best. Carroll is a potential top-half of the first round fantasy selection during his prime and Henderson could offer a very rare five-category spread of production from third base. The price on Henderson is very fair. My current plan this draft season is to get Carroll in the fifth round of roughly half of my 15-team leagues. I think he's worth a fourth-round pick, but the market currently says to wait until the fifth. I prefer Alex Bregman over Henderson (they're on an ADP island together among 3B), but not by a lot, and Henderson arguably has the higher ceiling since he might steal double-digit bases.

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Esteury Ruiz, OF, Athletics (ADP: 237, Shares 0/8)

Josh Jung, 3B, Rangers (ADP: 218, Shares 0/8)

Triston Casas, 1B, Red Sox (ADP: 239, Shares 0/8)

Ezequiel Tovar, SS, Rockies (ADP: 249, Shares 0/8)

Oswald Peraza, SS, Yankees (ADP: 323, Shares 0/8)

Garrett Mitchell, OF, Brewers (ADP: 296, Shares 0/8)

Drew Waters, OF, Royals (ADP: 423, Shares 0/8)

Spencer Steer, 3B, Reds (ADP: 400, Shares 0/8)

There is a good to great chance that these eight hitters will break camp on Opening Day rosters. Ruiz's outcomes range from leading the majors in stolen bases to being out of a job at the All-Star break. Jung, Casas and Steer won't run. Tovar's home park and job security belie his current skills. Peraza seems to be flying a little under the radar. He is in the Tommy Edman/Andres Gimenez mold of a low double-digits HR, 20-plus SB middle infielder whose glove keeps him in the lineup. Mitchell should be going closer to Waters and Steer due to the AVG and playing time risk. 

Spring Job Battles

Miguel Vargas, 1B, Dodgers (ADP: 276, Shares 0/8)

Jordan Walker, 3B, Cardinals (ADP: 263, Shares 0/8)

Here we have two top 10 prospects with a real shot at winning a job in camp. Obviously, Walker will gain OF eligibility soon after he starts playing, and Vargas will likely add OF and/or 3B eligibility in-season. I'm more confident in Vargas being ready to hit MLB pitching, while Walker has more raw power. Each could chip in some steals if they're playing regularly for most of the year.

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James Outman, OF, Dodgers (ADP: 461, Shares 0/3)

Matt Mervis, 1B, Cubs (ADP: 299, Shares 3/8)

Oscar Colas, OF, White Sox (ADP: 379, Shares 0/3)

Will Brennan, OF, Guardians (ADP: 446, Shares 2/3)

Jordan Diaz, 2B, Athletics (ADP: 636, Shares 2/3

Brett Baty, 3B, Mets (ADP: 449, Shares 0/3)

Curtis Mead, 3B, Rays (ADP: 536, Shares 2/3)

Sal Frelick, OF, Brewers (ADP: 468, Shares 0/3)

Matt Wallner, OF, Twins (ADP: 719, Shares 0/3)

I like/love all of these hitters, but they're long-shots to make the Opening Day roster. A big spring training or injuries ahead of them could open up a spot, but it's more likely they're fantasy options in May or June. I got all my Mervis shares before the Eric Hosmer/Trey Mancini signings. Outman, Colas, Wallner and Baty are the ones who could swing and miss too much, but their power potential and proximity makes them relevant, and Outman could also chip in some speed. Mead, who should add 2B eligibility, and Frelick are the best pure prospects but also come with the most immediate playing time questions. Don't sleep on Diaz. He actually hits the ball quite hard to go with his impressive bat-to-ball skill. Wallner could be Joey Gallo 2.0, which makes the Twins' addition of Gallo kind of funny. I like Trevor Larnach and Wallner as buys in deeper dynasty leagues, even if they each still have to prove they can hit enough to play. 

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Brice Turang, SS, Brewers (ADP: 391, Shares 0/3)

Ji Hwan Bae, OF, Pirates (ADP: 483, Shares 1/3)

Nolan Jones, OF, Rockies (ADP: 487, Shares 0/3)

Alec Burleson, OF, Cardinals (ADP: 612, Shares 0/3)

Ryan Noda, 1B, Athletics (ADP: 588,  Shares 0/3)

All five of these guys could make the Opening Day roster, but I'm worried about the playing time and less bullish on the overall fantasy profiles. Turang, who should add 2B eligibility, and Bae could be No. 8 or No. 9 hitters who steal bases, while Jones and Burleson are big-league ready hitters who won't run and might not play much. Noda was a Rule 5 selection. He's 26 and has been on and off the top 400 for years due to his intriguing combination of power and patience. It wouldn't be crazy for Noda to have stretches of playing time and useful production, but odds are he's just a Quad-A hitter long term.

The Catcher Renaissance

Logan O'Hoppe, Angels (ADP: 257, Shares 0/8)

Bo Naylor, Guardians (ADP: 325, Shares 1/8)

Francisco Alvarez, Mets (ADP: 350, Shares 0/8)

Endy Rodriguez, Pirates (ADP: 410, Shares 0/3)

It used to be rare for me to have more than two or three catchers in my top 100. Now I have 10(!) in my top 100, including these four. I don't want to roster more catchers than I have to in dynasty leagues, but productive catchers are always in high demand in redraft. These four should be heard from at some point. O'Hoppe is the only one who should start the year as his team's primary catcher, but the other three could eventually gain that honor. Naylor and Rodriguez have the most upside, but Alvarez (UT-only to start the year) is probably the best bet of the non-O'Hoppe ones to get to 300-plus plate appearances.

Summer Stashes

Royce Lewis, SS, Twins (ADP: 468, Shares 0/3)

Kyle Manzardo, 1B, Rays (ADP: 535, Shares 0/3)

Anthony Volpe, SS, Yankees (ADP: 377, Shares 0/3)

Colton Cowser, OF, Orioles (ADP: 599, Shares 0/3)

Connor Norby, 2B, Orioles (ADP: 596, Shares 0/3)

These five are good enough to generate FAAB-a-palooza level hype if/when they get the call. Lewis is obviously the most proven of the group, but the team isn't rushing him back, and he'll have a lengthy rehab assignment, so I'd assume he's not a fantasy option until close to the All-Star break. That's the same general time I'd expect Manzardo, Volpe, Cowser and Norby to be knocking on the door, but any of them could be up earlier with Triple-A dominance plus an opening on the MLB depth chart.

Long Shots

Jordan Lawlar, SS, Diamondbacks (ADP: 662, Shares 0/3)

Zach Neto, SS, Angels (Undrafted)

Elly De La Cruz, SS, Reds (ADP: 437, Shares 0/3)

Everson Pereira, OF, Yankees (Undrafted)

Evan Carter, OF, Rangers (Undrafted)

Zac Veen, OF, Rockies (ADP: 674, Shares 0/3)

Jackson Chourio, OF, Brewers (ADP: 729, Shares 0/3)

These are premium prospects who are each unlikely to spend significant time in the majors this season, but odds are one or two will be up sooner than we expect. I'm expecting Lawlar to get the Corbin Carroll treatment with a taste of the majors at the end of 2023 and then open 2024 as the starting shortstop. Neto could get rushed due to the Angels' lack of a shortstop and their annual desperation. Most evaluators would tell you De La Cruz is unlikely to be ready for the majors this season, but he's so talented and toolsy that we can't rule it out.

Best of the Rest

ASTROS

Yainer Diaz, UT (will add C eligibility) (ADP: 577, Shares 0/3)

Pedro Leon, OF (ADP: 737, Shares 0/3)

Justin Dirden, OF (Undrafted)

Joe Perez, 3B/OF (Undrafrted)

Will Wagner, 2B/3B/1B (Undrafted)

Korey Lee, C (ADP: 711, Shares 0/3)

ORIOLES

Joey Ortiz, SS (ADP: 657, Shares 3/3)

Jordan Westburg, SS/2B/3B (ADP: 661, Shares 0/3)

BLUE JAYS

Addison Barger, 2B/SS/3B (ADP: 634, Shares 0/3)

Spencer Horwitz, 1B (ADP: 750, Shares 0/3)

Otto Lopez, SS (ADP: 749, Shares 0/3)

REDS

Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 3B/1B (ADP: 710, Shares 0/3)

CUBS

Brennen Davis, OF (ADP: 688, Shares 0/3)

Miguel Amaya, C (Undrafted)

Alexander Canario, OF (ADP: 751, Shares 0/3)

BREWERS

Joey Wiemer, OF (ADP: 697, Shares 0/3)

RANGERS

Dustin Harris, OF/1B (ADP: 716, Shares 0/3)

Justin Foscue, 2B/3B (Undrafted)

GUARDIANS

Gabriel Arias, 3B (ADP: 709, Shares 0/3)

Brayan Rocchio, SS (ADP: 748, Shares 0/3)

George Valera, OF (ADP: 720, Shares 0/3)

WHITE SOX

Jose Rodriguez, 2B/SS (Undrafted)

Lenyn Sosa, 2B/SS (ADP: 728, Shares 0/3)

Bryan Ramos, 3B (Undrafted)

ROYALS

Maikel Garcia, SS (ADP: 743, Shares 0/3)

Tyler Gentry, OF (ADP: 729, Shares 0/3)

Samad Taylor, 2B/OF (Undrafted)

Nick Loftin, OF/3B (Undrafted)

DODGERS

Michael Busch, 2B (ADP: 579, Shares 0/3)

Jonny DeLuca, OF (Undrafted)

ATHLETICS

Tyler Soderstrom, 1B/C (ADP: 721, Shares 0/3)

Zack Gelof, 2B (ADP: 746, Shares 0/3)

RED SOX

Enmanuel Valdez, 2B (ADP: 663, Shares 0/3)

David Hamilton, 2B/SS (Undrafted)

Niko Kavadas, 1B/DH (Undrafted)

CARDINALS

Moises Gomez, OF (ADP: 741, Shares 0/3)

Ivan Herrera, C (Undrafted)

PADRES

Eguy Rosario, 3B (ADP: 733, Shares 0/3)

TWINS

Edouard Julien, 2B (ADP: 640, Shares 0/3)

Austin Martin, SS (ADP: 725, Shares 0/3)

TIGERS

Justyn-Henry Malloy, OF (ADP: 746, Shares 0/3)

Ryan Kreidler, SS (ADP: 715, Shares 0/3)

Wenceel Perez, 2B (Undrafted)

Andre Lipcius, 3B/2B (Undrafted)

Parker Meadows, OF (ADP: 740, Shares 0/3)

Donny Sands, C (ADP: 743, Shares 0/3)

MARLINS

Jordan Groshans, 3B (ADP: 680, Shares 0/3)

Xavier Edwards, 2B/3B/SS (ADP: 750, Shares 0/3)

Jacob Amaya, SS (ADP: 751, Shares 0/3)

ROCKIES

Michael Toglia, OF (ADP: 566, Shares 0/3)

NATIONALS

Jake Alu, 3B (ADP: 676, Shares 0/3)

METS

Mark Vientos, UT (ADP: 749, Shares 0/3)

Ronny Mauricio, 3B/SS (ADP: 751, Shares 0/3)

PIRATES

Travis Swaggerty, OF (Undrafted)

Canaan Smith-Njigba, OF (Undrafted)

Ryan Vilade, OF (Undrafted)

Malcom Nunez, 1B/3B (Undrafted)

Matt Gorski, OF (Undrafted)

Jared Triolo, 3B (Undrafted)

Liover Peguero, SS (Undrafted)

MARINERS

Cade Marlowe, OF (Undrafted)

DIAMONDBACKS

Blaze Alexander, SS (Undrafted)

Dominic Fletcher, OF (ADP: 751, Shares 0/3)

Jorge Barrosa, OF (Undrafted)

GIANTS

Casey Schmitt, 3B (Undrafted)

Heliot Ramos, OF (Undrafted)

Colton Welker, 3B/1B (Undrafted)