Alexander Canario

24-Year-Old OutfielderOF

Chicago Cubs AAA

7-Day IL

Injury Hamstring

Est. Return 2/1/2025

2024 Stats

AVG

.280

RBI

Rest-of-Season Projections

AVG

RBI

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2024 Fantasy Outlook

A hard-hitting righty slugger with some notable flaws, Canario has one minor-league option year remaining, which will likely assure he begins the year at Triple-A. He'll enter the year eligible at UT-only in most formats, but he's a solid right fielder who could gain outfield eligibility during the season or heading into 2025. Shoulder and ankle injuries limited him to 42 games at Triple-A and the majors in 2023. His .276/.342/.524 slash line at Triple-A was above league average (111 wRC+), but his 28 percent strikeout rate was a little higher than we'd like to see from a 23-year-old bat-first player at Triple-A. He's already with his second organization (traded from San Francisco along with Caleb Kilian at the 2021 trade deadline for Kris Bryant), and he would probably benefit from another trade, as he won't be displacing Seiya Suzuki or Ian Happ. There are some similarities to Nelson Velazquez - a righty slugger who was mostly limited to short-side platoon work with the Cubs but emerged as an everyday option late last season with the rebuilding Royals. Read Past Outlooks

RANKS

Rest of Season

From Preseason

#365

ADP

League AAA

Bats R

Throws R

40 Man Yes

Height 6'1"

Weight 165

DOB 5/7/2000

Born Monte Cristi, DR

College None

Drafted 2016 SF

Out with hamstring strain

OFChicago Cubs AAA

Hamstring

August 5, 2024

Triple-A Iowa placed Canario on its 7-day injured list Friday with a right hamstring strain, Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times reports.

ANALYSIS
Iowa deactivated Canario just over a week after he was carted off the field with the injury July 24 against Indianapolis. The 24-year-old outfielder is without a clear timeline to return to action. Canario retains a spot on the Cubs' 40-man roster but had been with Iowa since July 19 following a brief stint with the big club. He maintains a .243/.336/.514 slash line over 283 plate appearances at the Triple-A level for the season.

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Batting Stats

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2024

2023

2020

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2023 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Batting Order Slot Breakdown

vs Right-Handed Pitchers

vs RHP

vs Left-Handed Pitchers

vs LHP

Left/Right Batting Splits

Since 2022

+14%

OPS vs RHP

2024

+15%

OPS vs LHP

2023

+64%

OPS vs RHP

2022

No Stats

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2022vs Left	.786	14	2	0	1	0	.357	.357	.429
Since 2022vs Right	.894	31	3	2	7	1	.250	.323	.571
2024vs Left	.875	8	2	0	1	0	.375	.375	.500
2024vs Right	.762	20	2	1	1	1	.235	.350	.412
2023vs Left	.667	6	0	0	0	0	.333	.333	.333
2023vs Right	1.091	11	1	1	6	0	.273	.273	.818
2022vs Left	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2022vs Right	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
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Home/Away Batting Splits

Since 2022

+24%

OPS on Road

2024

+55%

OPS on Road

2023

+12%

OPS at Home

2022

No Stats

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2022Home	.786	28	4	2	6	1	.231	.286	.500
Since 2022Away	.974	17	1	0	2	0	.375	.412	.563
2024Home	.689	20	3	1	1	1	.222	.300	.389
2024Away	1.071	8	1	0	1	0	.429	.500	.571
2023Home	1.000	8	1	1	5	0	.250	.250	.750
2023Away	.889	9	0	0	1	0	.333	.333	.556
2022Home	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2022Away	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
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Stat Review

How does Alexander Canario compare to other hitters?

This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

BB/K
Walk to strikeout ratio
BB Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
K Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
BABIP
Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
ISO
Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
AVG
Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
OBP
On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
SLG
Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
OPS
On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
wOBA
Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
Exit Velocity
The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
Hard Hit Rate
A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
Barrels/PA
The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
Expected BA
Expected Batting Average.
Expected SLG
Expected Slugging Percentage.
Sprint Speed
The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
Ground Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
Line Drive %
The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
Fly Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.

BB/K

0.18

BB Rate

7.1%

K Rate

39.3%

BABIP

.462

ISO

.160

AVG

.280

OBP

.357

SLG

.440

OPS

.797

wOBA

.354

Exit Velocity

88.0 mph

Hard Hit Rate

21.4%

Barrels/PA

7.1%

Expected BA

.201

Expected SLG

.373

Sprint Speed

25.6 ft/sec

Ground Ball %

42.9%

Line Drive %

14.3%

Fly Ball %

42.9%

Prospect Rankings History

Advanced Batting Stats

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Additional Stats

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Defensive Stats

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Batted Ball Stats

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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2023

2021

2020

2019

In 2021, Canario looked like a slugger with a very low probability of hitting enough to make it as a big-league regular. His 2022 was strong enough that he protected his place on the 40-man roster, but there are still significant questions about the hit tool. Unfortunately, he suffered a broken ankle and dislocated shoulder this offseason in the Dominican Winter League. The power-hitting corner outfielder will miss the start of the season, and he would likely benefit from a rehab assignment before getting back into action at Triple-A. Canario hit .252 with a 27.5 K% on the year, but his 0.62 BB/K in 20 games at Triple-A was his best mark since he was in the Dominican Summer League in 2017. Canario has 70-grade power and will hope to make enough contact to have a Franmil Reyes type of career arc.

Canario could be a Jorge Soler type of producer in real life and in fantasy, hitting plenty of home runs with too many strikeouts while shifting between right field and designated hitter. However, he is still several years away from potentially realizing that best-case scenario. He did a ton of damage at the plate in 2019, but he struck out too much and didn't walk enough. This past summer at the alternate training site, Canario worked on making better swing decisions in an effort to improve his hit tool. He moves well for his size, but will likely slow down to the point that he is not much of a threat on the bases by the time he reaches the majors. The right-handed slugger dealt with recurring left shoulder injuries in 2019 and 2020, culminating in surgery to repair a torn labrum and dislocation that will sideline him through spring training this year. He should open his age-21 season at High-A.

When evaluating Canario's 2019 season, we should largely overlook his 10-game obliteration of the AZL. A 19-year-old hitter repeating that level is a knock in and of itself. Once he got to the Northwest League, he still posted gaudy numbers, but some flaws started to show. Canario gets to his 70-grade raw power with ease. His groundball rate was below 28% at both stops -- only Mike Trout (24.3 GB%) did that last year among qualified MLB hitters. His grooved swing and poor ball/strike recognition led to a 33.6 K% (including NWL playoffs). Strikeouts are his clear weakness, and if he doesn't make necessary adjustments, he will get exposed as he climbs the ladder (think Seuly Matias). Of course, if he improves his command of the zone, he would easily profile as a cleanup-hitting right fielder. An average runner, Canario still saw time in center field last year, but figures to outgrow that position.

Those anxiously trying to add a prospect who dominated in the Dominican Summer League this past season should look at Canario's 2018 as a dose of reality. He logged a 147 wRC+ as a 17-year-old in the DSL in 2017, showcasing a combination of power and speed that was difficult to ignore. However, the DSL is a very unique league. Players who excel there are not guaranteed to have similar success in stateside rookie leagues. Take Canario, whose K% jumped from 14.6% to 24.5% after the jump to the AZL. The quality of his contact also suffered, as he struggled to take what pitchers were giving him (often selling out for power), and saw fewer mistakes to crush. He struck out 14 times in his first eight AZL games, but hit .277/.380/.468 with six home runs and six steals in his final 167 PA. Canario still has a chance to develop into a five-category force (above-average power and speed), but needs to work on using the whole field while letting his power come naturally.

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