Farm Futures: Ranking the Rookies

This article originally appeared in the 2019 RotoWire Fantasy Baseball Guide, but has been updated to reflect the most recent news and the author's shifting opinion on the redraft value of certain players.

The top 400 prospect rankings are for dynasty leagues. This resource is for owners who play in single-season leagues, or in keeper leagues where prospects are rarely kept. These tiers serve as a way to rank prospects based on their fantasy potential for 2019. The rankings are not perfect – there are players I would take over a player or two in the tier(s) above them – but the tiered system is a nice way to get a feel for the type of prospect you are investing in.

THE BEST HITTING PROSPECT OF HIS GENERATION

1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 3B, Blue Jays

Guerrero will debut in mid-to-late April. He is ready to compete for batting titles right away and has at least 70-grade power. My comp is Albert Pujols, and while the gap in age complicates the rookie-season comparison, Pujols was the No. 42 prospect in baseball (according to Baseball America) before he hit .329/.403/.610 as a rookie, while Vlad is the clear-cut best hitting prospect of his generation. I expected his ADP to settle in the late 20s or early 30s, but he is still typically going in the late 30s, which I believe is an exceptional bargain.

TOP-100 OVERALL PLAYERS

2. Victor Robles, OF, Nationals
3. Eloy Jimenez, OF, White Sox

Their Steamer projections properly illustrate how different the production will be:

Robles: .274/.335/.417, 12 HR, 66 R, 59 RBI, 26 SB, 133 games
Jimenez: .293/.341/.502, 24 HR, 69 R, 81 RBI, 2 SB, 127 games

I'll take the slight over on games for both of them – Jimenez should debut in mid-to-late April and Robles should be the Opening Day center fielder. One big difference is Jimenez will be hitting third or fourth all season while Robles may be hitting in the seven-to-nine range. I have both guys ranked as top-80 overall players, but you can wait a round or two longer on Jimenez in most leagues. At the time the magazine went out, I preferred Jimenez for 2019, but after doing some drafts that count, I've found myself taking Robles over Jimenez for the speed. If you are in a non-roto format, Jimenez over Robles is an easy call, but in roto the steals tilt things toward Robles.

OTHERS FOR 15-TEAM MIXERS

4. Nick Senzel, OF/3B/2B, Reds
5. Garrett Hampson, 2B/SS, Rockies
6. Jesus Luzardo, LHP, A's
7. Yusei Kikuchi, LHP, Mariners
8. Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets
9. Forrest Whitley, RHP, Astros
10. Alex Reyes, RHP, Cardinals
11. Kyle Tucker, OF, Astros
12. Danny Jansen, C, Blue Jays
13. Chris Paddack, RHP, Padres
14. Luis Urias, 2B, Padres
15. Touki Toussaint, RHP, Braves
16. Christin Stewart, DH/OF, Tigers
17. Francisco Mejia, C, Padres
18. Josh James, RHP, Astros
19. Alex Verdugo, OF, Dodgers
20. Willians Astudillo, C, Twins

The Reds have been surprisingly vocal about the fact that Senzel could be the everyday center fielder this season, even suggesting he could break camp with the job. He doesn't need to be on the Opening Day roster to be a value just inside the top 200, which is where he has been going lately in NFBC drafts. The Rockies have made perplexing playing-time decisions before, so it's not a lock that Hampson gets as many at-bats as it looks like he should. He could be Whit Merrifield lite with regular playing time in Coors. Luzardo should be up sometime in April – he could even break camp in the rotation. He could be an SP2 right away. Kikuchi was utterly dominant in 2017, but his strikeout rate really dipped last year and he has only thrown over 165 innings once. If he bounces back to his 2017 form, he could win people leagues. Alonso, who will likely be up in mid-to-late April, will hit a ton of home runs, but will struggle to hit better than .240 or .250 in Year 1. Whitley is a big wild card. We just don't know how many MLB innings he will throw. I guarantee that the Astros will want him to be available in the postseason, and while a prospect of his caliber doesn't need a set amount of innings at Triple-A (the late, great Jose Fernandez skipped Double-A and Triple-A back in the day), it's worth noting that he has never pitched at that level. Taking him at his ADP (roughly 225 overall in recent drafts) is a big swing, but it could very easily pay off. Reyes threw 27 innings last year, suffered a season-ending shoulder injury, and had Tommy John surgery the year before. He is on track for a normal spring and may end up in the bullpen. I expect the Cardinals to handle him cautiously this season, but he should be a major asset on a per-inning basis. Tucker is the sleeper of this list. The Astros may manipulate his service time and hold him down until late May, or he could be in the Opening Day lineup. Either way, he could be a five-category guy when he's up – just know that if you draft him you may need to stash him for a while. Jansen is a low-end C1 in two-catcher leagues, which means he has an ADP higher than many of the players listed ahead of him. I just don't believe in investing early in that big third tier of catchers. Paddack was several tiers lower in this article a couple months ago, but the hype is now through the roof, so you'll need to draft him inside the top 300 picks if you want him. He should be really solid – think Shane Bieber's fielding-independent numbers from last year – but we just don't know when he'll be up. Urias may now need to earn the leadoff spot in-season as following the Manny Machado signing, Ian Kinsler ,ay get pushed into the leadoff spot. The Padres could gain an extra year of control by sending Urias back to Triple-A for five weeks – this would be a complete sham, and I doubt it happens. Injuries to other pitchers resulted in Toussaint being the lone Braves pitching prospect in this tier. He is the favorite to win the fifth starter spot and should be a strikeout machine, although there is significant ratio risk, particularly to WHIP. Stewart is a significantly worse prospect than all the non-catchers in this tier, but he's probably going to hit 20-plus homers in the majors this year. Mejia could hit over .250 with double-digit homers, which would mean he was a C1, but he could also lose out on enough playing time to Austin Hedges to relegate him to low-end C2 value. James suffered a quadriceps injury that was serious enough to knock him out of the spring training rotation battle. Once healthy, he will likely be stretched out at Triple-A before joining the big club. I don't blame Verdugo for being frustrated about his situation. He has been big-league ready for a year but the Dodgers have not wanted to use him as a part-time player in the majors, so he has mostly languished at Triple-A. He currently projects as a bench bat, but could rip a starting job from someone if he is allowed to break camp on the 25-man roster. Astudillo is not a "prospect" in the traditional sense, as he is a 27-year-old journeyman, but he technically qualifies. He could lead all catcher-eligible players in AVG, but may not even get to 200 plate appearances.

TOP-100 PROSPECTS FOR STANDARD-LEAGUE WATCH LISTS

21. Nate Lowe, 1B, Rays
22. Yusniel Diaz, OF, Orioles
23. Bryse Wilson, RHP, Braves
24. Logan Allen, LHP, Padres
25. Daz Cameron, OF, Tigers
26. Fernando Tatis Jr., SS, Padres
27. Keston Hiura, 2B, Brewers
28. Kyle Wright, RHP, Braves

Lowe is power-over-hit, Diaz is hit-over-power, and both are top-40 prospects who I expect to debut sometime in June. The two Braves pitchers in this tier could be called upon early this season if there is an opening in the rotation. Wilson is the better fantasy prospect, so I'll give him the slight nod. Who debuts first in 2019 might come down to who is on turn at Triple-A when a spot first opens up. Allen could be the first of the Padres' good pitching prospects to reach the majors, and while he has a chance to be a No. 3 starter, he lacks the 2019 upside of org mate Paddack. That said, he is a much better prospect than Joey Lucchesi ever was. Cameron could be on a similar schedule as Lowe and Diaz, and he is the only one of the three who could steal double-digit bases this year, but he is also the most likely to be a negative in batting average. There is no set date for Tatis to get the call – recall that the Padres made it seem like Urias would be up pretty early last year and he didn't come up until late August despite holding his own at Triple-A all year. If Tatis looks ready for a challenge in May, he could be up, but I also wouldn't be surprised if he didn't debut until the second half. Once up, he will hit for power and steal some bases, but I wouldn't expect him to hit better than .250 on normal batted-ball luck. Hiura's 2019 value really took a hit with the Brewers signing Mike Moustakas. He will be the next man up if Travis Shaw or Moustakas gets hurt, but Milwaukee can comfortably let him work on things at Triple-A until he has completely mastered that level.

DELICATE PITCHERS

29. Jonathan Loaisiga, RHP, Yankees
30. Mike Soroka, RHP, Braves
31. Brent Honeywell, RHP, Rays
32. A.J. Puk, LHP, A's
33. Dennis Santana, RHP, Dodgers
34. Jon Duplantier, RHP, Diamondbacks

Loaisiga has No. 3 starter potential, and while I think Domingo German might be the favorite to replace Luis Severino (shoulder) in the rotation, Loaisiga is now firmly in the mix. I really hoped Soroka's shoulder woes would be a thing of the past upon the arrival of spring training, but it remains an issue. Perhaps he gets going at Triple-A in April and is up in May, but it is also possible that this just ends up being another semi-lost season for him. Honeywell could reach the majors around the All-Star break, while Puk could be up in late July or early August. Both should be useful right away. Santana is coming off a serious shoulder injury and did not have time to prove himself as a big-league starter. Duplantier has not pitched at Triple-A, is notoriously fragile dating back to college, and while he is ready to get outs in the big leagues, I don't think he'll be ready to have success as a big-league starter in the first half.

BIG-LEAGUE READY FRINGE PROSPECTS

35. Merrill Kelly, RHP, Diamondbacks
36. Billy McKinney, OF/DH, Blue Jays
37. Brandon Lowe, 2B/OF, Rays
38. Daniel Vogelbach, DH, Mariners
39. Ty Buttrey, RHP, Angels
40. Sean Reid-Foley, RHP, Blue Jays
41. Matt Thaiss, 1B, Angels
42. Nicky Lopez, SS/2B, Royals
43. Sandy Alcantara, RHP, Marlins
44. Framber Valdez, LHP, Astros
45. DJ Stewart, OF, Orioles
46. Richie Martin, SS/2B, Orioles
47. Kevin Kramer, 2B, Pirates
48. Myles Straw, OF, Astros
49. Austin Dean, OF, Marlins
50. Rowdy Tellez, 1B, Blue Jays
51. Andrew Knizner, C, Cardinals
52. Luiz Gohara, LHP, Braves
53. Oscar Mercado, OF, Indians
54. Kevin Newman, SS/2B, Pirates

Some of these guys will open the year in the majors, but none are top-100 prospects and only a few are top-200 guys – a few aren't even top-400 prospects. A couple will undoubtedly emerge as useful mixed-league options.

THE REST OF THE WATCH LIST GUYS

55. Jo Adell, OF, Angels
56. Dylan Cease, RHP, White Sox
57. Justus Sheffield, LHP, Mariners
58. Mitch Keller, RHP, Pirates
59. Bo Bichette, SS, Blue Jays
60. Austin Riley, 3B, Braves
61. Yordan Alvarez, OF/1B, Astros
62. Griffin Canning, RHP, Angels
63. Lewis Thorpe, LHP, Twins
64. Sean Murphy, C, A's
65. Ryan Helsley, RHP, Cardinals
66. Austin Hays, OF, Orioles
67. Garrett Stubbs, C, Astros
68. Shaun Anderson, RHP, Giants
69. Luis Rengifo, 2B, Angels
70. Erik Swanson, RHP, Mariners
71. Nick Madrigal, 2B, White Sox
72. Michael Chavis, 3B/2B, Red Sox
73. Zack Brown, RHP, Brewers
74. J.B. Bukauskas, RHP, Astros
75. Triston McKenzie, RHP, Indians
76. Jorge Mateo, SS/2B/OF, A's
77. Matt Manning, RHP, Tigers
78. Brendan Rodgers, 2B/SS/3B, Rockies
79. Andres Munoz, RHP, Padres
80. Joe McCarthy, 1B, Rays
81. Ryan Mountcastle, 3B/OF, Orioles
82. Joe Palumbo, LHP, Rangers
83. Nick Neidert, RHP, Marlins
84. Cole Tucker, SS, Pirates
85. Casey Mize, RHP, Tigers
86. Willi Castro, SS, Tigers
87. Zack Collins, C, White Sox
88. Nick Gordon, SS/2B, Twins
89. Isan Diaz, 2B/SS, Marlins
90. Will Smith, C, Dodgers

None of these guys will open the year in the majors, and some inevitably won't even reach the majors this season. However, they all have the potential to help in various formats if they get the call.

THE LONGSHOTS

91. Victor Victor Mesa, OF, Marlins
92. Wander Franco, SS/2B, Rays
93. Royce Lewis, SS, Twins
94. Alex Kirilloff, OF, Twins
95. Ke'Bryan Hayes, 3B, Pirates
96. Gavin Lux, 2B, Dodgers
97. Andres Gimenez, SS/2B, Mets
98. Keibert Ruiz, C, Dodgers
99. Adam Haseley, OF, Phillies
100. Isaac Paredes, 3B/SS/2B, Tigers

Victor Victor could reach the majors around the All-Star break, or he could reach the majors in 2021 – it's impossible to know how his skills will translate stateside. Franco reaching the majors this season seems about as likely as Juan Soto reaching the majors in May of 2018 was before last season, so this is me covering my bases.