This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
The UFC heads to Sao Paulo, Brazil on Saturday for a 13-fight card full of intriguing matchups from which we can potentially profit. SuperDraft has decided to sit this one out as of the post date of this article, so we'll take a look at every bout across three platforms, including a maligned veteran who may just achieve redemption, and a fan favorite ready to put on a show once again. Our betting line this week comes to us from the Rotowire MMA betting page.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Jailton Almeida ($9,600)
There is every possibility that Almeida isn't much more than size and strength and that his lack of actual MMA acumen will show itself in time. Luckily for us, there is very little chance of this exposure happening at the hands of Derrick Lewis. While "The Black Beast" has ruined the nights of many wrestlers with incredible power and the uncanny ability to seemingly stand up out of any position, the threat has wained over time, as Sergey Spivac cut through him on the mat, while Sergei Pavlovich and Tai Tuivasa battered him on the feet. This fight may be over as soon as Lewis makes his first trip to the ground, which would guarantee Almeida a score of at least 100 points.
Kaue Fernandes ($7,600)
It seems as though the Marc Diakiese who would wrestle his opponents into oblivion is a thing of the past, as he went 0-for-6 on attempts against Michael Johnson before notching the dubious honor of being the only fighter in the organization to be stopped when trying to ground Joel Alvarez. If he can't wrestle successfully, he should have a hard time with Fernandes, who will use his speed and leg kicks to frustrate and damage "Bonecrusher." The Brazilian fighter will also work some wrestling of his own, which leaves me wondering where Diakiese's edge lies in this matchup.
Eduarda Moura ($9,400)
"Ronda" is a nickname we see quite a bit among the next generation of female fighters, but Moura likely earned the moniker, as she relentlessly chases takedowns from the opening bell and has notched five of her nine wins via submission. Montserrat Ruiz was never meant to last as an undersized fighter who relies on head-and-arm throws almost exclusively, and it seems likely that this is the end of the line for her in the UFC.
Vitor Petrino ($9,000)
Petrino is of a rare breed who continues to fight effectively when they get tired. This was likely built from necessity, as Petrino carries quite a bit of muscle on his frame. Modestas Bukauskas will try to stick and move to get ahead on the judges' scorecards, but he will be at both a strength and speed disadvantage here, which means a high-scoring performance full of takedowns, or a highlight-reel KO is likely in the cards.
Rinat Fakhretdinov ($9,100)
Fakhretdinov has been an absolute wrecking machine in the Octagon, averaging 122.7 (!) DraftKings points in three fights. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos' elusive style may keep him on his feet for a while, but I expect the pressure and pace of "Gladiator" to break down the Brazilian fighter, which should lead to another dominant performance.
Rodolfo Vieira ($7,900)
A suspect gas tank and one-dimensional fighting style are both legitimate reasons to be wary of Vieira but Armen Petrosyan looks like the best kind of matchup he will get this deep into his UFC career, as "Superman" has defended just 36 percent of the takedown attempts he has been faced with thus far. Moreover, he has been taken down at least twice in all but one of his five UFC (and UFC-adjacent) bouts. If Petrosyan can survive the early rush, Vieira may stare down the barrel of another exhausting loss, but that first-round upside carries a lot of weight at this price.
Rodrigo Nascimento ($8,800)
I could develop a lot of grey hair in the time it takes me to figure out who was asking for a rematch of a fight between two low-level heavyweights that took place three years ago, but what I can say affirmatively is the Brazilian fighter scored two takedowns in that bout before taking advantage of a clearly tired Don'Tale Mayes in Round 2. There's no reason to think this fight will play out any differently, as Mayes seems to be one of the athletic heavyweights who don't have much in terms of an actual skill set. This can allow him to get the drop on other formless fighters, but Nascimento's grappling base and power should win him the day once again.
Elves Brener ($8,200)
We might need the archives for confirmation, but I'd be willing to bet a sizeable amount that Brenner is the only fighter to ever score over 100 points with a salary of less than $7,000 in consecutive fights. This would have made him a popular option before Kaynan Kruschewsky took this bout on short notice, but now prospective owners will likely need to go incredibly heavy on the Brazilian if they want to buck the field. This should pay off, as Kruschewsky is incredibly stiff and hittable in the pocket, and Brenner is skilled no matter where the fight goes. This likely means another big score for Elves, as well as an interesting matchup the next time we see him in the Octagon.
Plays to Consider on PrizePicks
Denise Gomes OVER 75.5 Significant Strikes, Ismael Bonfim UNDER 48.5 Significant Strikes, Daniel Marcos UNDER 44.5 Significant Strikes, and Gabriel Bonfim UNDER 25.5 Significant Strikes
Gomes loves to brawl in the pocket, and while that has typically meant that her opponent doesn't see the scorecards, I don't think we need to worry about the durability of Angela Hill, who has never been knocked out in 28 professional fights. I expect these two to be exchanging punches at range for the better part of 15 minutes, which should result in backers of the over prevailing without much of a sweat.
Unless he is facing someone who may be able to outwrestle him, Vinc Pichel will keep a fight in close quarters whenever possible in an attempt to grind down cleaner strikers. Bonfilm certainly qualifies as such, as he combines explosive action with crisp combinations to stay perpetually dangerous at range. My sense is that Pachel either gets knocked out or is able to force the fight he wants. Both of these options will lead to a low total of significant strikes.
Marcos is athletic and can be explosive, but all of that movement tends to result in "Soncora" skirting around the perimeter of the action looking for a counter shot. When we factor in that the clinch is the area in which Marcos does his best work, it's hard to see many significant strikes coming in this one, particularly against someone like Victor Hugo, who will come forward but ultimately ends up in clinch positions due to poor command of range.
Given the rate at which Bonfim and Nicolas Dalby throw hands, we can only assume this line has an early stoppage baked into it. The only problem here is that Dalby has never been stopped in 26 professional fights. Given that many of Bonfim's submissions come in the form of opportunistic things like jumped guillotines, I remain unconvinced that he will be a dedicated finisher at the highest level. The good news is that we don't need to be right very often for this wager to pay off, as even a submission that lands in Round 2 will likely get us over the line.
Bets to Consider
Abusupiyan Magomedov (+245)
There is currently no one in a smaller doghouse than Abus as far as the MMA community is concerned, as he brought all of five minutes of cardio to his fight with Sean Strickland before wilting in front of his opponent and becoming a punching bag. However, we shouldn't forget that he won that round quite clearly, out-striking the middleweight champion by a count of 32-11. He also became the first person to land a takedown on Strickland since Kamaru Usman in 2017. All of this is to say that we shouldn't be writing off a fighter due to what amounts to one poor showing. Magomedov remains a veteran of 31 fights who is solid everywhere. This will come in handy when he faces an opponent like Caio Borralho, who has about half the experience and relies on wrestling to generate most of his offense.
For more UFC betting picks, check out our UFC Sao Paulo Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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