This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
UFC 305 Fight Breakdowns & DFS Picks: Drake's Takes
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC 305 card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Stewart Nicoll (8-0-0) v. Jesus Aguilar (10-2-0)
Stewart Nicoll - Height: 5'5" - Reach: N/A – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 8 wins
Jesus Aguilar - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 62" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: Nicoll could not ask for a better UFC debut opponent. Aguilar has yet to do anything impressive in the UFC and arguably lost his most recent split decision. His ground game is something to be wary of, but Nicoll also has a great ground game. The big difference in this fight should be Nicoll's striking and I would not be surprised to see him end this fight early. This is a solid fight to target, as it likely does not see the final bell.
UFC 305 Pick: Nicoll
Kenan Song (21-8-0) v. Ricky Glenn (22-8-2)
Song Kenan - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 18 finishes in 21 wins
Rick Glenn - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 70" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 16 finishes in 22 wins
DFS Perspective: This is a battle of two not-so-great fighters. However, Song should be better everywhere, particularly striking. Glenn has been knocked out in consecutive fights and it will not be surprising to see it happen again. We could also see a low-volume striking match without a finish, which would not score well for DFS.
UFC 305 Pick: Song
Tom Nolan (7-1-0) v. Alex Reyes (13-4-0)
Tom Nolan - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 73" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 7 wins
Alex Reyes - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: This will be a popular fight to target for DFS and one you need to have a piece of. There have been four knockouts between their combined UFC fights, all in the first round. Reyes has been knocked out in both of his fights, while Nolan is 1-1. Either guy could go down but I expect Nolan to have an edge in speed and forward pressure.
UFC 305 Pick: Nolan
Jack Jenkins (12-3-0) v. Herbert Burns (11-5-0)
Jack Jenkins - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 68" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 12 wins
Herbert Burns - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: Burns has had just two fights since August 2020, both of which ended with him being knocked out. He is getting up there in age, is inactive, and looked terrible in his most recent fight in March. I see things staying the same here. Lock Jenkins into cash lineups and sprinkle him in GPP contests.
UFC 305 Pick: Jenkins
Casey O'Neill (14-5-0) v. Luana Santos (8-1-0)
Casey O'Neill - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 9 wins
Luana Santos - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: O'Neill had a strong start to her UFC career, going 4-0, but has struggled in back-to-back fights. Santos is taking this fight on short notice but will have a clear advantage on the mat, where she should be taking it early and often. If this were to remain on the feet, the fight would become much closer. Both ladies are highly active in fights, and this should score well for DFS with most outcomes.
UFC 305 Pick: Santos
Josh Culibao (11-3-1) v. Ricardo Ramos (16-6-0)
Josh Culibao - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 11 wins
Ricardo Ramos - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: Culibao is tough and will always be a difficult out for opponents. He should have a slight edge on the feet but will likely have difficulty keeping it there. Ramos will have a clear advantage on the mat and should be able to test the questionable takedown defense of Culibao. I expect Ramos to record several takedowns while racking up control time and scoring well in DFS with a win.
UFC 305 Pick: Ramos
Junior Tafa (5-2-0) v. Valter Walker (11-1-0)
Junior Tafa - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 5 wins
Valter Walker - Height: 6'6" - Reach: 78" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: This is another fight that likely ends early. Walker did not have a good UFC debut, and there are question marks about whether he has the talent and IQ to stay. Tafa has struggled with being taken down and controlled, which is a concern in this fight. I will not be surprised if Tafa knocks Walker out early, but I expect Walker to be more prepared for this fight. He has the edge on the mat and a decent reach advantage on the feet.
UFC 305 Pick: Walker
Jingliang Li (19-8-0) v. Carlos Prates (19-6-0)
Li Jingliang - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 19 wins
Carlos Prates - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 78" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 17 finishes in 19 wins
DFS Perspective: This is another fight where an early finish is expected. Both guys throw with heavy hands, and I would not be surprised to see it end in this first or second round. Li has not fought in nearly two years, which is always a concern. Prates is coming off back-to-back knockout wins, including his most recent fight in June, which he ended late in the first round. Li will struggle mightily with Prates's reach advantage, and it will be no surprise to see Prates score high for DFS.
UFC 305 Pick: Prates
Tai Tuivasa (14-7-0) v. Jairzinho Rozenstruik (14-5-0)
Tai Tuivasa - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 75" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 14 wins
Jair Rozenstruik - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 78" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: Tuivasa has lost four straight, getting finished in all four. It does not get any easier for him against Rozenstruik. Rozenstruik was dominant in his most recent fight in March and should have no issue keeping it rolling here. I expect him to use his reach advantage to outpoint Tuivasa and eventually knock him out.
UFC 305 Pick: Rozenstruik
Mateusz Gamrot (24-2-0) v. Dan Hooker (23-12-0)
Mateusz Gamrot - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 70" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 24 wins
Dan Hooker - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 75" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 18 finishes in 23 wins
DFS Perspective: Unless Hooker gets an early knockout, he will likely be frustrated on the mat once again. Gamrot is one of the premier wrestlers in the UFC, and he should continue chaining takedowns while racking up control. Gamrot is always heavily owned for DFS and this slate will be no different. Lock him into all lineups.
UFC 305 Pick: Gamrot
Kai Kara-France (24-11-0) v. Steve Erceg (12-2-0)
Kai Kara-France - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 24 wins
Steve Erceg - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: Erceg surprised many with how well he fought against Pantoja in the battle for the belt. He showed he belonged at the top of the division, and he should have the edge everywhere in this fight except power. Kara-France fought just over a year ago, losing a tough split decision. His takedown defense has always been elite, and he will need every bit of it in this fight. However, I expect Erceg to get this to the mat early and potentially put Kara-France away before the last bell.
UFC 305 Pick: Erceg
Dricus Du Plessis (21-2-0) v. Israel Adesanya (24-3-0)
Dricus Du Plessis - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 76" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 19 finishes in 21 wins
Israel Adesanya - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 80" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 16 finishes in 24 wins
DFS Perspective: Izzy will need to be on point with his striking if he is to get his belt back. He will have a clear edge in reach and must keep Du Plessis on the outside at all times. However, Du Plessis has already shown he is fine getting inside the pocket of guys with a longer reach than him. He will also have a considerable edge on the mat and he would be wise to mix in several takedowns through the fight to keep rounds in his favor. Izzy has struggled with grapplers in the past, and Du Plessis is one of the best in the division. I have Du Plessis locked in all contests.
UFC 305 Pick: Du Plessis
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
