This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
A hefty 13-fight slate awaits us for UFC 288 on Saturday, spearheaded by the bantamweight title fight between champion Aljamain Sterling and the returning Henry Cejudo. We'll cover each bout from betting and DFS perspectives, including an improving middleweight, and a wrestler who isn't afraid to walk into the fire. Our betting line this week comes from William Hill and is accurate to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Movsar Evloev ($9,400)
Evloev's matchup with Bryce Mitchell was an intriguing contest between two slick grapplers, but the undefeated fighter should leave no mystery against Diego Lopes, who hits hard and will hunt submissions but is far too comfortable working in bottom position. He also takes too much damage, which means that Evolev should be able to sit behind his jab and land shots until he is ready to take the fight to the floor.
Jessica Andrade ($8,800)
The 70 percent takedown defense rate of Yan Xiaonan looks impressive but has been inflated due to a 2-for-11 showing by one of the least accurate takedown artists the UFC has seen in Mackenzie Dern. The reality is that the Chinese fighter has been taken down multiple times by every competent wrestler she has faced, and was absolutely thrashed on the ground by Carla Esparza in 2021. Andrade should get back to her wrestling here, using her aggression and strength to ground her opponent and set the tone early.
Parker Porter ($8,600)
I have watched this sport long enough to know anything can happen at heavyweight. This is doubly true when the competitors are as low-level as Porter and Braxton Smith. Still, I have a hard time with the idea that Smith can secure wins at this level. "The Beautiful Monster" is a ball of muscle who will look to throw the biggest shots possible until his opponent is on the canvas. I have to believe that a fighter like Porter, who possesses a jab and has been using his wrestling effectively of late, can grab the victory over an undeniably scary but solidly one-dimensional fighter like Smith.
Virna Jandiroba ($7,700)
Marina Rodriguez's wide swings in the pocket often result in her creating accidental clinch situations with opponents. This will play right into the hands of Jandiroba, who wants nothing more than to get the fight to the ground and work her jiujitsu game. Rodriguez could potentially pick her off at range for three rounds, but the aggressiveness of "Carcara" should frustrate her opponent and introduce a pace with which she will have trouble keeping up.
Rafael Estevam ($8,300)
Estevam did a fantastic job of staying safe on the ground against an active guard player in his win on the Contender Series and now faces an opponent in Zhalgas Zhumagulov who will surrender real estate and back himself into the cage. This will allow the debutante to push the pace with a ferocious wrestling attack that could lead to a big ROI at this price.
Plays to Consider on SuperDraft
Henry Cejudo – 1.8 X Multiplier
You need to go back a long way to find a fight Aljamain Sterling won in which he could not out-grapple his opponent. I would also go a bit further and say that he has never won a high-level fight in the UFC without a significant grappling advantage. While he is likely better at pure jiu-jitsu than Cejudo, getting "Triple C" to the ground and holding him there has proven to be a herculean task, as he has notched a 93 percent takedown defense rate. If this fight is contested at range, I believe Cejudo will use his speed to close distance and land thundering leg kicks on the lanky champion, leading to more gold for The King of Cringe.
Belal Muhammad -1.8 X Multiplier
The concern I shared regarding Sterling goes double for Gilbert Burns, who was dismantled by Kamaru Usman using only a jab and was hurt multiple times after being unable to take down Khamzat Chimaev. Muhammad may seem like a step down in completion here, but he will push a tremendous pace with volume that is likely to make the Brazilian fighter tired. The power of "Durinho" can't be discounted, but Muhammad has been incredibly durable in his career and should be able to weather an early storm.
Phil Hawes -2.1 X Multiplier
DFS players have been conditioned to gravitate towards Dagestani wrestlers due to their high point potential, but I think Hawes will be too much for Ikram Aliskerov. The first thing to note is that "No Hype" has never been taken down in the UFC. Add to that the power he possesses, and the fact that Iskarov is less than defensively responsible, and what emerges is a fairly tempting underdog play. Hawes' striking is improving all the time, and Iskarov has never been a big KO/TKO threat, having finished just four of his 13 wins via strikes.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks
Khaos Williams OVER 7.5 Minutes of Fight Time, Claudio Ribeiro UNDER 7.5 Minutes of Fight Time, Charles Jourdain UNDER 10 Minutes of Fight Time, and Kennedy Nzechukwu UNDER 12.5 minutes of fight time.
Williams' power and precision almost guarantee that a knockout will come at some point. The problem is he fights so slowly that it's difficult to tell when that finish will materialize. In this case, I think Rolando Bedoya will try to take the initiative early, which will let Williams hang back and look for powerful countershots. This may result in a deficit on the scorecards, with the ever-present possibility that "The Oxfighter" finds a late finish.
Ribeiro swings wild hammers not unlike Braxton Smith but is set apart from the bigger man thanks to his agility and punishing leg kicks. Joseph Holmes will undoubtedly be the more technical fighter here but likes to use space and work behind his jab, which will give the Brazillian fighter time to swarm. It should also be noted that Ribeiro showed solid takedown defense in his UFC debut, stuffing both attempts made against him by Abdul Razak Alhassan.
Our next line is a bit tougher to gauge, as Kron Gracie showed remarkable toughness against Cub Swanson, and Jourdain has lost by submission just once in 20 professional MMA fights. Both men will face their stiffest test to date in terms of specialties, however, and I think an early exchange will decide whether Gracie goes to sleep or "Air Jourdain" taps out.
I firmly believe that Kennedy Nzechukwu will knock out Devin Clark on Saturday. The only thing left to determine is how soon it will happen. Nzechukwu generally gets taken down early in fights, but "Brown Bear" has never been much of a control grappler, and seems to get badly hurt in the majority of his bouts. Nzechukwu has started a bit faster in recent contests, which would leave Clark to have to deal with his range and power early on.
Bets to Consider
Matt Frevola (+175)
Count me among those who were incredibly impressed that Frevola not only hung in the pocket with the hard-throwing Ottman Azaitar but was also able to find the perfect counter shot to put him on the canvas. Drew Dober can be overwhelmed by pressure, and while he's incredibly difficult to finish, he will carry just a 55 percent takedown defense rate into this fight. Frevola should possess the gas tank to wrestle for 15 minutes, as well as the wherewithal to stand with Dober at range.
For more UFC betting picks, check out our UFC 288 Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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