This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Charlotte card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Jessica-Rose Clark (11-8-0) v. Tainara Lisboa (5-2-0)
Jessica-Rose Clark - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 64" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 11 wins
Tainara Lisboa - Height: 5'6" - Reach: N/A – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 5 wins
DFS Perspective: Clark is on a slide of two consecutive first-round submission losses but will have a considerable edge in experience going into this one. She should also feature better striking. Lisboa is making her debut but has little experience professionally fighting. However, she looks to have a solid understanding of the fight game and seems well-rounded. It could be a more confident pick, but I will lean with the dog to hand Clark a third consecutive submission loss.
UFC Charlotte Pick: Lisboa
Gabriel Green (11-4-0) v. Bryan Battle (8-2-0)
Gabriel Green - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 73" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 11 wins
Bryan Battle - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 77" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: This should be a good test and step up in competition for Battle. Both guys have similar skill sets, but I give Green the advantage everywhere, particularly in power. Battle is a solid GPP pick, but I think Green edges this one out in a decision if he does not finish Battle.
UFC Charlotte Pick: Green
Ji Yeon Kim (9-6-2) v. Mandy Bohm (7-2-0)
Ji Yeon Kim - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 72" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 9 wins
Mandy Bohm - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: Until Bohm shows she can fight at the UFC level, I will continue to pick against her. She would likely have the grappling edge in this matchup, but getting it to the mat will be difficult. On the other hand, Kim should dominate this fight on the feet, and I would not be surprised to see her stop this early.
UFC Charlotte Pick: Kim
Natan Levy (8-1-0) v. Pete Rodriguez (5-1-0)
Natan Levy - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 71" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 8 wins
Pete Rodriguez - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 71" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 5 wins
DFS Perspective: This should be a classic striker vs. grappler matchup. Levy will have a significant edge on the mat and would likely submit Rodriguez to end this early. In contrast, Rodriguez will have a considerable advantage on the feet with volume and power. This should be a tight match and one to target in GPP lineups. I like Rodriguez to keep this upright and finish Levy by knockout.
UFC Charlotte Pick: Rodriguez
Cody Stamann 21-5-1) v. Douglas Silva De Andrade (28-5-0)
Cody Stamann - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 64" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 21 wins
Douglas Silva de Andrade - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 22 finishes in 28 wins
DFS Perspective: This should be an excellent fight between two UFC veterans, and it could go either way. I would give Stamann a slight advantage on the feet and in wrestling and Silva de Andrade a slight edge in power and grappling. If the fight ends with a finish, I expect it to come from Silva de Andrade. If the fight goes to the judges' scorecards, I would lean toward Stamann. However, I like the early finish possibility from Silva De Andrade and lean toward him ever so slightly.
UFC Charlotte Pick: Silva De Andrade
Karl Williams (8-1-0) v. Chase Sherman (16-11-0)
Karl Williams - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 79" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 3 finishes in 8 wins
Chase Sherman - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 78" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: Sherman has a puncher's chance, but that is about it. I expect Williams to shoot within the first minute of the fight and then control the fight from there. I expect him to be the highest-rostered fighter on the slate.
UFC Charlotte Pick: Williams
Matt Brown (23-19-0) v. Court McGee (21-11-0)
Matt Brown - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 75" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 21 finishes in 23 wins
Court McGee - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 21 wins
DFS Perspective: Another pair of UFC veterans will square off Saturday night, and I expect it to be another close fight. McGee is the favorite, but I believe this fight should be closer to a pick 'em or even with McGee listed as the dog. Brown should be better everywhere the fight goes and will also be the one pushing the pace. Both guys are getting up there in age, and anything could happen. However, Brown will likely be one of the more popular options for DFS as the dog.
UFC Charlotte Pick: Brown
Tim Means 32-14-1) v. Alex Morono (22-8-0)
Tim Means - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 75" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 24 finishes in 32 wins
Alex Morono - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 22 wins
DFS Perspective: I expect this to be another fight that is much closer than the odds indicate. Morono is a technical striker and will have the edge on the feet. Means is a wild striker, and I expect him to get this fight to the mat often. A decision is a likely outcome for this fight, and given how the judges have been scoring lately, it could go either way. Morono has exploitable takedown defense and can be controlled for long periods of time. I expect Means to have a game plan following that path and emerge victorious.
UFC Charlotte Pick: Means
Carlos Ulberg (7-1-0) v. Ihor Potieria (22-8-0)
Carlos Ulberg - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 77" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 7 wins
Ihor Potieria - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 75" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 19 wins
DFS Perspective: Potieria can be a scary striker when he lands but tends to be wild and inaccurate. He also has yet to fight the best competition. I expect Ulberg to weather an early storm and eventually push the pace. The output and power from Ulberg should create a solid score for DFS.
UFC Charlotte Pick: Ulberg
Daniel Rodriguez (17-3-0) v. Ian Garry (11-0-0)
Daniel Rodriguez - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 74" - Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 17 wins
Ian Garry - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: Garry gets his first big test in the UFC in the name of Daniel Rodriguez, and it should be an excellent fight. I expect this to be a striking match for as long as it lasts. Both guys are hittable, throw a lot, and have power. This fight comes down to who can land the cleaner blows and how much Rodriguez throws. Due to Rodriguez's volume being down over the last couple of fights, my lean will be with the favorite.
UFC Charlotte Pick: Garry
Anthony Smith (36-17-0) v. Johnny Walker (20-7-0)
Anthony Smith - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 76" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 33 finishes in 36 wins
Johnny Walker - Height: 6'6" - Reach: 82" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 19 finishes in 20 wins
DFS Perspective: This is a likely must-play for DFS purposes, as there are a combined 52 finishes between the two. Smith was knocked out in his most recent fight, and there is cause for concern due to his age and the amount of damage he has taken. On the other hand, Walker can be as wild as they come and make silly mistakes. Assuming he does not make any large mistakes, I expect him to dominate this matchup and end it within the first two rounds, as he should be slightly better and significantly faster everywhere.
UFC Charlotte Pick: Walker
Jair Rozenstruik (13-4-0) v. Jailton Almeida (18-2-0)
Jair Rozenstruik - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 78" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 13 wins
Jailton Almeida - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 79" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 18 finishes in 18 wins
DFS Perspective: Rozenstruik has one path to victory, and it is via knockout, which is always a possibility with heavyweights. Without it, however, Almeida should dominate this matchup. I expect him to get into the pocket quickly and take Rozenstruik down before eventually knocking him out with ground-and-pound or finding his neck. Almeida will be another highly-rostered fighter on this slate.
UFC Charlotte Pick: Almeida
For more MMA DFS-specific content, check out our UFC Charlotte DraftKings preview, or play around with your favorite combinations of fighters on our DFS MMA Lineup Optimizer.
FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
