This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC 296 card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Randy Brown (17-5-0) v. Muslim Salikhov (19-4-0)
Randy Brown - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 78" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 17 wins
Muslim Salikhov - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 19 wins
DFS Perspective: Salikhov is likely the better overall martial artist, but he faces a massive reach disadvantage, and as a primary striker, that will cause issues against Brown. Brown can win a rather boring decision by keeping this fight at range and throwing combos down the middle to keep Salikhov off of him. He is also more likely to shoot for takedowns. I expect this fight to be close, but for Brown to edge it out.
UFC 296 Pick: Brown
Shamil Gaziev (11-0-0) v. Martin Buday (13-1-0)
Shamil Gaziev - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 78" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 11 wins
Martin Buday - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 77" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: Gaziev is making his UFC debut after a first-round finish on the Contender Series. Buday rattled off his fourth consecutive UFC win last time out, securing a Kimura submission late in the first round. Both fighters are dangerous and can finish the fight anywhere. I expect Buday's experience and tight technical striking to hand the debutant his first loss.
UFC 296 Pick: Buday
Andre Fili (22-10-0) v. Lucas Almeida (14-2-0)
Andre Fili - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 74" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 22 wins
Lucas Almeida - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: Almeida will have his chances on the feet and could threaten a submission on the mat, but Fili should be better everywhere. Fili will have a significant wrestling advantage and only needs to avoid putting himself in a compromising position to win this fight.
UFC 296 Pick: Fili
Tagir Ulanbekov (14-2-0) v. Cody Durden (16-4-1)
Tagir Ulanbekov - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 70" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 14 wins
Cody Durden - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 67" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: This should be a highly entertaining fight between two experienced wrestlers/grapplers. Ulanbekov is more dangerous when it comes to submissions, while Durden is more dangerous when keeping control on the mat and striking. I expect this to be a close back-and-forth affair. If Durden avoids getting submitted, I see him dominating control time with chained takedowns for another explosive DFS win.
UFC 296 Pick: Durden
Alonzo Menifield (14-3-1) v. Dustin Jacoby (19-7-1)
Alonzo Menifield - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 76" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 14 wins
Dustin Jacoby - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 76" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 19 wins
DFS Perspective: This is another close fight that could go either way. Menifield will have the power advantage, while Jacoby will have the edge in volume. I do not expect much work to be done on the mat, though Menifield would be more likely to attempt takedowns. Without a finish, this fight will be lower-scoring and better off for GPP contests.
UFC 296 Pick: Jacoby
Casey O'Neill (9-1-0) v. Ariane Lipski (16-8-0)
Casey O'Neill - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 69" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 9 wins
Ariane Lipski - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: O'Neill returned from her injury and took a tough-luck loss in a close decision. Lipski is on a two-fight win streak, though her most recent is debatable. That said, O'Neill should be better everywhere this fight goes. I expect her to dominate volume on the feet and would not be surprised to see her eventually finish Lipski. This is a solid spot for her to bounce back and an excellent play for DFS.
UFC 296 Pick: O'Neil
Cody Garbrandt (13-5-0) v. Brian Kelleher (24-14-0)
Cody Garbrandt - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 65" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 13 wins
Brian Kelleher - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 66" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 18 finishes in 24 wins
DFS Perspective: Garbrandt got himself back in the win column with a slow-played decision last time out. There were times he looked good in that win, but he still looks like a shell of himself. Kelleher is riding a two-fight losing streak, getting submitted in the first round in each. Given that Garbrandt still does not look like himself, I expect Kelleher to have the edge everywhere. Kelleher makes a sneaky lower-owned play for DFS.
UFC 296 Pick: Kelleher
Irene Aldana (14-7-0) v. Karol Rosa (17-5-0)
Irene Aldana - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 68" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 14 wins
Karol Rosa - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 17 wins
DFS Perspective: I think the odds should be closer than they are for this fight. Aldana has the edge in power, while Rosa has the edge in volume. The wrestling likely cancels out a bit since Aldana has solid takedown defense, so it should come down to who lands the more powerful and cleaner shots. That should be Aldana, and I would not be surprised if she recorded another knockout. Without the finish, I do not expect a high score, making this fight better for GPP contests.
UFC 296 Pick: Aldana
Josh Emmett (18-4-0) v. Bryce Mitchell (16-1-0)
Josh Emmett - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 70" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 18 wins
Bryce Mitchell - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 70" – Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: Emmett is a dangerous striker and will have his opportunities on the feet in this matchup. Mitchell is a decent striker but incredibly dangerous on the mat and will continually look to get it there. Although he is taking this fight on short notice, I do not see it being an issue. He should dominate Emmett to a massive DFS score if he avoids getting knocked out. Mitchell is one of my favorite plays for DFS.
UFC 296 Pick: Mitchell
Tony Ferguson (25-9-0) v. Paddy Pimblett (20-3-0)
Tony Ferguson - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 76" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 20 finishes in 25 wins
Paddy Pimblett - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 20 wins
DFS Perspective: Ferguson has lost six straight and has not looked great in some time. It is difficult to see that changing here. Pimblett arguably lost his most recent fight but was awarded a unanimous decision after 15 minutes, moving to a perfect 4-0 in the UFC. This fight likely comes down to grappling exchanges, which Pimblett should win. I do not expect a high score to come out of this fight without a finish.
UFC 296 Pick: Pimblett
Shavkat Rakhmonov (17-0-0) v. Stephen Thompson (17-6-1)
Shavkat Rakhmonov - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 77" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 17 finishes in 17 wins
Stephen Thompson - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 17 wins
DFS Perspective: Aside from a pure striking match, I do not put much stock into a 40-year-old Wonderboy. He showed in his last fight that he can still strike with the best of them, but he is lost in any wrestling or grappling. Rakhmonov is a complete fighter and dominant everywhere. I expect him to have his way anywhere this fight goes and record his 18th finish in a row.
UFC 296 Pick: Rakhmonov
Alexandre Pantoja (26-5-0) v. Brandon Royval (15-6-0)
Alexandre Pantoja - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 67" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 18 finishes in 26 wins
Brandon Royval - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 68" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: This is a rematch from August of 2021, and I do not expect it to go much differently. Pantoja is better in every facet of the game. However, Royval does have solid power and a phenomenal choke, so he could make it interesting in several spots throughout the fight. Pantoja will be a popular play for every contest and sits high on my favorites.
UFC 296 Pick: Pantoja
Leon Edwards (21-3-0) v. Colby Covington (17-3-0)
Leon Edwards - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 74" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Missing wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 21 wins
Colby Covington - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 17 wins
DFS Perspective: Edwards won the belt and successfully defended it in the following fight. Now, he draws Colby Covington, who has not fought since March 2022. Edwards will have a considerable edge in striking. Assuming Covington is ready and in fight shape, he will have a significant edge in wrestling. Given how long he has been off, it is difficult to expect Covington not to experience ring rust, but I still like him as a dog in this fight. Both fighters will be popular for all contests, but a win for Colby will smash value.
UFC 296 Pick: Covington
For more MMA DFS-specific content, check out our UFC 296 DraftKings preview, or test your favorite combinations of fighters on our DFS MMA Lineup Optimizer.
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
