The Stats Room: Week 3 QB Projections

The Stats Room: Week 3 QB Projections

This article is part of our The Stats Room series.

Projections are hard. The more I try to improve them, the further I seem to get from a workable solution. I've found many ideas which don't pan out. If I sound frustrated, I am but I will continue to determine what's useful and what isn't. I have my quarterback projection results and the ones for the next week. Additionally, I've included wide receiver projections for the first time.

Week 1 was a mess with quarterbacks showing inconsistent play with the average projection being off by 6.5 points. This week, the values are down to 4.7 points off. The projections sort of felt like projections. Here are the results from week two.

PLAYERVEGAS LINEPASS ATTHYBRIDROTOWIREAVGACTUALHYBRID DIFFROTOWIRE DIFFAVG DIFF
Aaron Rodgers 20.0 20.3 20.3 22.4 16.0 18.5 1.8 3.9 2.5
Alex Smith 18.6 17.2 17.2 14.1 16.0 16.1 1.1 2.0 0.1
Andy Dalton 16.5 17.5 17.5 16.9 16.0 9.5 8.0 7.5 6.6
Ben Roethlisberger 16.4 16.5 16.5 16.9 16.0 17.5 1.0 0.7 1.5
Blake Bortles 15.9 17.5 17.5 13.4 16.0 9.8 7.7 3.6 6.2
Brian Hoyer 14.0 15.0 15.0 9.5 16.0 2.0 13.1 7.5 14.1
Jacoby Brissett 16.6 10.9 16.6 11.6 16.0 8.8 7.7 2.8 7.2
Cam Newton 18.4 18.5 18.5 19.8 16.0 11.8 6.7 8.0 4.2
Carson Palmer 15.1 17.0 17.0 15.1 16.0 15.9 1.1 0.7 0.1
Carson Wentz 15.4 16.4 16.4 14.5 16.0 24.8 8.5 10.4 8.8
Dak Prescott 18.1 15.9 15.9 18.2 16.0 15.9 0.0 2.3 0.1
Derek Carr
Projections are hard. The more I try to improve them, the further I seem to get from a workable solution. I've found many ideas which don't pan out. If I sound frustrated, I am but I will continue to determine what's useful and what isn't. I have my quarterback projection results and the ones for the next week. Additionally, I've included wide receiver projections for the first time.

Week 1 was a mess with quarterbacks showing inconsistent play with the average projection being off by 6.5 points. This week, the values are down to 4.7 points off. The projections sort of felt like projections. Here are the results from week two.

PLAYERVEGAS LINEPASS ATTHYBRIDROTOWIREAVGACTUALHYBRID DIFFROTOWIRE DIFFAVG DIFF
Aaron Rodgers 20.0 20.3 20.3 22.4 16.0 18.5 1.8 3.9 2.5
Alex Smith 18.6 17.2 17.2 14.1 16.0 16.1 1.1 2.0 0.1
Andy Dalton 16.5 17.5 17.5 16.9 16.0 9.5 8.0 7.5 6.6
Ben Roethlisberger 16.4 16.5 16.5 16.9 16.0 17.5 1.0 0.7 1.5
Blake Bortles 15.9 17.5 17.5 13.4 16.0 9.8 7.7 3.6 6.2
Brian Hoyer 14.0 15.0 15.0 9.5 16.0 2.0 13.1 7.5 14.1
Jacoby Brissett 16.6 10.9 16.6 11.6 16.0 8.8 7.7 2.8 7.2
Cam Newton 18.4 18.5 18.5 19.8 16.0 11.8 6.7 8.0 4.2
Carson Palmer 15.1 17.0 17.0 15.1 16.0 15.9 1.1 0.7 0.1
Carson Wentz 15.4 16.4 16.4 14.5 16.0 24.8 8.5 10.4 8.8
Dak Prescott 18.1 15.9 15.9 18.2 16.0 15.9 0.0 2.3 0.1
Derek Carr 15.3 16.8 16.8 18.0 16.0 21.2 4.4 3.2 5.2
Deshaun Watson 12.1 x 12.1 11.9 16.0 17.7 5.6 5.8 1.7
DeShone Kizer 12.2 x 12.2 9.6 16.0 1.9 10.3 7.7 14.1
Drew Brees 17.0 18.9 18.9 20.3 16.0 22.2 3.3 1.9 6.2
Eli Manning 15.0 16.1 16.1 15.6 16.0 11.6 4.5 4.0 4.5
Jameis Winston 15.5 16.1 16.1 18.3 16.0 12.5 3.6 5.9 3.6
Jared Goff 14.9 12.8 12.8 12.1 16.0 10.9 1.9 1.2 5.2
Jay Cutler 16.8 14.2 14.2 13.7 16.0 13.1 1.1 0.6 2.9
Joe Flacco 14.5 17.5 17.5 14.7 16.0 14.6 2.9 0.2 1.4
Josh McCown 14.0 14.9 14.9 4.5 16.0 15.7 0.9 11.2 0.3
Kirk Cousins 17.3 18.3 18.3 18.5 16.0 11.9 6.4 6.7 4.2
Marcus Mariota 18.0 16.0 16.0 18.9 16.0 13.0 3.0 5.9 3.0
Matt Ryan 19.9 17.7 17.7 19.9 16.0 14.9 2.8 5.1 1.1
Matthew Stafford 16.5 17.6 17.6 16.0 16.0 13.2 4.4 2.8 2.8
Mike Glennon 15.9 7.8 15.9 11.4 16.0 10.0 5.9 1.4 6.0
Philip Rivers 16.2 16.4 16.4 17.3 16.0 17.2 0.8 0.1 1.2
Russell Wilson 19.4 19.8 19.8 20.6 16.0 15.3 4.4 5.3 0.7
Tom Brady 17.9 17.9 17.9 24.0 16.0 30.8 12.9 6.8 14.8
Trevor Siemian 15.3 15.5 15.5 8.2 16.0 22.6 7.2 14.4 6.6
Tyrod Taylor 19.1 17.7 17.7 15.2 16.0 10.5 7.2 4.7 5.5
Average 16.5 15.5 14.6 4.8 4.6 4.6
Standard Deviation 3.5 3.5 4.0

The standard RotoWire projections came in first with an averaged projection taking the second spot. The projections were close but I still came in an unacceptable last place.

Where I missed is on the extreme downside (Hoyer, Kizer and Glennon). I am not sure if it is an early season anomaly but for the first two weeks, I haven't gone low enough on some guys. Maybe I shouldn't worry about them because most won't be starting except in super flex leagues. I'm not sure.

Due to some delays with the wide receivers, I couldn't get my projections up before the Thursday night game. My higher than standard projections paid off with Hoyer scoring 26 points.

Besides the downside players, the big misses evened. While I underestimated Brady, the difference was offset by almost nailing McCown's total (15.7 vs 14.9).

I thought I might have a possible answer to my high projections. I only use the weekly point spread and previous season data for the projections estimates (for now). Additionally, the model uses linear regression. I thought maybe at the change at the low and/or high extremes isn't linear.

To test the theory, I went back and found the average quarterback points and pass attempts for the number of points Vegas expected the team to score. Here are the results (min. 10 games at each point total).

While the r-square improved a small bit with a logarithmic best fit line, it's not much (less the 0.01). It's not the improvement I was looking for.

The major factor that might be missing is opposing defensive talent. I know if a team is going to score fewer points; I just don't know if it will be on the ground or the air. Incorporating defensive projections might solve this problem. This possible change will just have to wait a week or two.

Without any quarterback corrections, here are the week projections

Note: No projections for the quarterbacks in the Minnesota-Tampa game with no line and starters not set.

PLAYERTEAMPASS ATTSPREADHYBRIDROTOWIREDIFF
Aaron Rodgers GB 20.3 18.7 20.3 20.1 0.2
Alex Smith KC 17.2 18.7 17.2 13.6 3.7
Andy Dalton CIN 17.5 16.7 17.5 12.8 4.7
Ben Roethlisberger PIT 16.5 16.1 16.5 14.8 1.8
Blake Bortles JAC 17.5 15.1 17.5 10.7 6.7
Brian Hoyer SF 15.0 15.1 15.0 9.7 5.3
Cam Newton CAR 18.5 19.2 18.5 16.9 1.6
Carson Palmer ARZ 17.0 15.5 17.0 12.4 4.6
Carson Wentz PHI 16.4 15.0 16.4 14.5 1.9
Case Keenum MIN 8.5
Dak Prescott DAL 15.9 18.4 15.9 15.1 0.8
Derek Carr OAK 16.8 17.4 16.8 15.4 1.5
Deshaun Watson HOU 12.1 12.1 9.5 2.6
DeShone Kizer BAL 12.2 12.2 8.0 4.1
Drew Brees NO 18.9 16.2 18.9 16.4 2.5
Eli Manning NYG 16.1 14.4 16.1 11.8 4.3
Jacoby Brissett IND 10.9 16.9 10.9 9.2 1.7
Jameis Winston TB 13.5
Jared Goff LAR 12.8 14.2 12.8 12.4 0.4
Jay Cutler MIA 14.2 16.7 14.2 14.1 0
Joe Flacco BAL 17.5 14.5 17.5 10.9 6.6
Josh McCown NYJ 14.9 14.9 14.9 7.5 7.3
Kirk Cousins WAS 18.3 18.4 18.3 14.7 3.6
Marcus Mariota TEN 16.0 17.8 16.0 13.8 2.2
Matt Ryan ATL 17.7 19.4 17.7 17.0 0.7
Matthew Stafford DET 17.6 17.6 17.6 15.5 2.1
Mike Glennon CHI 7.8 16.0 7.8 9.3 -1.5
Philip Rivers LAC 16.4 16.3 16.4 14.0 2.4
Russell Wilson SEA 19.8 19.9 19.8 14.9 4.9
Tom Brady NE 17.9 16.1 17.9 19.7 -1.8
Trevor Siemian DEN 15.5 15.1 15.5 13.9 1.6
Tyrod Taylor BUF 17.7 19.4 17.7 12.8 4.9

Overall, my projections are three points higher this week than the standard RotoWire ones. It's a constant theme, but I am not sure of the correct adjustment yet.

While I have a better understanding of quarterbacks, I will finally move onto wide receivers. Compared to quarterbacks, their projections are easier. Basically, just targets and the basic catch rate.

Note: Running back projections are a complete mess. Injuries and fickle coaches make projecting them nearly impossible. I will eventually get to them, but the level of error with them is off the charts. The talent among backs is constant so, for now, concentrate on potential touches.

The two biggest wide receiver issues I'm dealing with are rookies and incorporating in-season data. My projection database doesn't update in-season, so I eventually linked up all the in-season and pre-season target estimates. The key word is tried. I hope I got everyone, but I am not 100 percent sure. Let me know if I missed any non-rookie.

For wide receivers, I will use the projections I previously published for the base talent rates.

With my limited time this week, I just found the weight for first two weeks of targets and the previous season's targets. For this week, the previous season targets per game get weighted at 45 percent while the in-season numbers get the other 55 percent.

PLAYERTARGETSRECYARDSTDFUMPPRSTANDARD
Mike Evans 10.1 5.8 79.5 0.8 0.1 18.1 12.4
Dez Bryant 11.1 7.0 80.4 0.7 0.1 18.9 11.9
Julio Jones 9.4 5.7 83.3 0.6 0.1 17.3 11.6
Michael Thomas 9.2 7.0 81.7 0.6 0.1 18.5 11.5
Antonio Brown 11.4 8.4 92.2 0.3 0.1 19.4 11.1
A.J. Green 9.7 5.6 78.3 0.5 0.1 16.1 10.5
Randall Cobb 9.1 7.0 87.1 0.4 0.2 17.5 10.5
Jarvis Landry 11.2 8.4 76.4 0.5 0.2 18.5 10.1
DeAndre Hopkins 10.5 6.2 83.7 0.3 0.1 16.2 9.9
Keenan Allen 7.9 5.4 71.6 0.5 0.1 15.3 9.9
T.Y. Hilton 8.3 4.9 68.3 0.5 0.0 14.4 9.5
Eric Decker 7.9 5.4 62.6 0.4 0.1 13.9 8.5
Kenny Stills 6.2 4.0 61.4 0.4 0.0 12.5 8.5
Doug Baldwin 8.0 4.9 65.4 0.3 0.0 13.3 8.5
Davante Adams 9.0 5.4 61.6 0.4 0.1 13.8 8.4
Larry Fitzgerald 8.5 4.5 55.4 0.5 0.0 12.8 8.3
Tyreek Hill 7.7 5.6 55.0 0.5 0.1 13.7 8.1
DeVante Parker 7.5 4.2 60.9 0.3 0.0 12.3 8.1
Alshon Jeffery 8.5 4.7 58.2 0.4 0.1 12.7 8.1
Brandin Cooks 7.7 5.8 58.7 0.3 0.1 13.5 7.7
Stefon Diggs 7.3 4.6 56.3 0.3 0.0 12.0 7.4
Donte Moncrief 6.7 4.2 52.4 0.3 0.0 11.4 7.2
Mohamed Sanu 6.7 4.4 43.5 0.5 0.1 11.6 7.2
Adam Thielen 7.6 4.8 57.2 0.3 0.1 12.0 7.1
Demaryius Thomas 7.8 4.7 53.1 0.3 0.1 11.8 7.1
Tyler Lockett 5.7 4.2 49.3 0.4 0.1 11.2 7.1
Tyrell Williams 6.9 3.9 50.0 0.3 0.1 10.8 6.9
Kelvin Benjamin 7.0 3.8 47.4 0.4 0.1 10.6 6.9
Terrelle Pryor 7.6 4.9 50.8 0.3 0.1 11.7 6.8
J.J. Nelson 6.6 3.5 51.6 0.3 0.1 10.3 6.8
Pierre Garcon 7.2 5.2 50.0 0.3 0.1 11.8 6.7
Jordy Nelson 7.4 4.7 49.7 0.3 0.1 11.3 6.6
Sterling Shepard 6.4 4.1 41.6 0.4 0.0 10.5 6.4
Rishard Matthews 7.6 4.6 51.7 0.2 0.1 11.0 6.4
Michael Crabtree 7.4 4.3 50.8 0.2 0.1 10.5 6.2
Jamison Crowder 6.7 5.0 50.4 0.2 0.1 11.2 6.2
DeSean Jackson 7.2 4.0 51.9 0.2 0.1 10.0 6.0
John Brown 6.7 3.4 43.8 0.3 0.0 9.4 6.0
Mike Wallace 4.8 2.8 43.0 0.3 0.0 8.7 6.0
Jordan Matthews 5.0 3.3 39.4 0.3 0.0 9.0 5.7
Marqise Lee 7.1 4.1 44.3 0.2 0.0 9.6 5.4
Eli Rogers 5.4 3.9 42.9 0.2 0.1 9.3 5.4
Allen Hurns 5.6 3.1 37.6 0.3 0.0 8.5 5.4
Marquise Goodwin 5.1 3.0 37.8 0.3 0.1 8.4 5.4
Golden Tate 7.6 4.3 44.3 0.2 0.1 9.7 5.4
Kenny Britt 5.2 3.0 42.6 0.2 0.0 8.4 5.4
Brandon Marshall 5.5 3.2 39.4 0.2 0.0 8.5 5.3
Torrey Smith 4.7 2.5 36.3 0.3 0.0 7.7 5.1
Kendall Wright 6.1 3.9 37.4 0.2 0.1 8.9 5.0
Cole Beasley 6.5 4.2 39.9 0.2 0.1 9.2 5.0
Rashard Higgins 6.1 3.6 38.8 0.2 0.0 8.6 5.0
Taylor Gabriel 5.6 3.0 42.3 0.1 0.0 8.0 5.0
Chris Hogan 6.2 3.9 37.9 0.2 0.0 8.8 4.9
Kamar Aiken 4.2 3.0 31.9 0.3 0.0 7.9 4.9
Robby Anderson 5.5 3.2 39.0 0.2 0.1 8.0 4.8
Sammy Watkins 5.0 2.7 36.0 0.2 0.0 7.5 4.8
Brandon LaFell 6.5 3.5 39.3 0.2 0.0 8.3 4.8
Corey Coleman 6.1 3.1 34.6 0.2 0.0 7.8 4.7
Jaron Brown 5.0 3.2 34.7 0.2 0.0 7.9 4.7
Geronimo Allison 4.5 2.7 33.5 0.2 0.0 7.3 4.6
Devin Funchess 4.5 2.4 30.9 0.3 0.0 6.9 4.5
Marvin Jones 5.4 3.3 34.4 0.2 0.0 7.7 4.5
Ted Ginn 5.8 3.1 34.4 0.2 0.1 7.5 4.4
Travis Benjamin 4.7 2.6 32.7 0.2 0.0 6.9 4.4
Brandon Coleman 4.2 2.6 33.3 0.2 0.0 6.9 4.3
Jermaine Kearse 5.2 3.1 31.6 0.2 0.0 7.2 4.2
Danny Amendola 5.7 3.9 32.9 0.2 0.1 8.0 4.1
Paul Richardson 4.9 3.2 31.8 0.2 0.0 7.3 4.1
Robert Woods 4.8 2.4 31.1 0.2 0.0 6.5 4.0
Breshad Perriman 4.3 2.3 29.9 0.2 0.0 6.3 4.0
Dontrelle Inman 4.2 2.9 31.8 0.1 0.0 6.8 3.9
Josh Bellamy 4.4 2.8 29.3 0.2 0.0 6.8 3.9
Michael Thomas 5.0 2.7 28.4 0.2 0.1 6.4 3.7
Albert Wilson 4.0 2.4 30.3 0.1 0.0 6.1 3.6
Nelson Agholor 4.6 2.6 29.5 0.1 0.1 6.2 3.6
Allen Robinson 4.2 2.6 28.0 0.1 0.0 6.1 3.5
Tavon Austin 3.9 2.4 24.2 0.2 0.0 5.8 3.5
Jeremy Kerley 4.1 2.6 27.2 0.1 0.0 6.0 3.4
Chris Conley 3.8 2.3 23.2 0.2 0.0 5.5 3.2
Seth Roberts 2.8 1.7 21.8 0.2 0.0 4.9 3.2
Kevin White 4.5 2.6 25.8 0.1 0.0 5.8 3.2
Tanner McEvoy 2.7 1.8 20.7 0.2 0.0 4.8 3.0
Deonte Thompson 3.2 2.2 22.9 0.1 0.0 5.2 3.0
Sammie Coates 3.1 2.0 22.8 0.1 0.0 4.9 2.9
Roger Lewis 3.4 1.7 18.8 0.2 0.0 4.5 2.8
Russell Shepard 3.1 2.0 20.9 0.1 0.0 4.8 2.8
Jarius Wright 2.8 1.8 20.5 0.1 0.0 4.5 2.7
Aldrick Robinson 2.2 1.4 18.7 0.2 0.0 4.1 2.7
Bennie Fowler 3.1 1.9 22.0 0.1 0.0 4.6 2.7
Andre Holmes 2.8 1.9 19.4 0.1 0.0 4.5 2.6
Phillip Dorsett 3.3 1.7 19.3 0.1 0.0 4.2 2.5
Cordarrelle Patterson 2.8 1.7 17.1 0.1 0.0 4.1 2.4
TJ Jones 2.7 1.6 18.0 0.1 0.0 4.0 2.4
Brice Butler 2.9 1.7 17.9 0.1 0.0 4.0 2.3
Brian Quick 2.7 1.4 15.7 0.1 0.0 3.6 2.3
Ryan Grant 2.8 1.6 16.1 0.1 0.0 3.7 2.1
Alex Erickson 2.2 1.5 15.9 0.1 0.0 3.6 2.0
Laquon Treadwell 2.5 1.5 15.4 0.1 0.0 3.5 2.0
Cody Core 2.4 1.6 16.7 0.1 0.0 3.6 2.0
Arrelious Benn 1.7 1.1 14.6 0.1 0.0 3.0 1.9
Josh Doctson 2.2 1.2 14.7 0.1 0.0 3.1 1.9
Tommylee Lewis 2.1 1.3 13.9 0.1 0.0 3.1 1.8
Justin Hardy 2.3 1.4 13.8 0.1 0.0 3.1 1.7
Damiere Byrd 1.7 1.1 12.1 0.1 0.0 2.7 1.6
Jaelen Strong 1.5 0.9 9.7 0.1 0.0 2.4 1.5
Brittan Golden 1.6 0.9 11.7 0.1 0.0 2.3 1.5
Kasen Williams 1.5 1.0 10.6 0.1 0.0 2.4 1.4
Andre Roberts 1.7 0.9 10.2 0.1 0.0 2.3 1.4
Darrius Heyward-Bey 2.2 0.8 8.9 0.1 0.0 2.0 1.2
Leonte Carroo 1.3 0.8 8.2 0.1 0.0 2.0 1.2
Charone Peake 1.5 0.9 8.9 0.0 0.0 2.0 1.1
Quan Bray 1.1 0.7 7.5 0.1 0.0 1.7 1.0
Pharoh Cooper 1.2 0.8 7.7 0.0 0.0 1.8 1.0
Trevor Davis 1.1 0.7 6.7 0.1 0.0 1.6 1.0
Brandon Tate 1.0 0.6 6.2 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.8
De'Anthony Thomas 1.1 0.8 6.7 0.0 0.0 1.6 0.8
Johnny Holton 0.9 0.6 6.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.8
Dwayne Harris 0.7 0.5 4.9 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.7
Jakeem Grant 0.7 0.4 4.5 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.6
Chris Moore 0.8 0.4 4.2 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.6
Eric Weems 0.6 0.4 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.5
Demarcus Robinson 0.6 0.4 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.5
Geremy Davis 0.6 0.4 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.5
Vince Mayle 0.6 0.4 3.8 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.5
Kalif Raymond 0.4 0.2 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.3

While there is a little bit of shuffling at the top when comparing the values to the standard RotoWire projections, the biggest discrepancy is with Jordy Nelson (6.6 pts vs. 11.2 pts). My system doesn't know about the injury he had the first couple weeks (which could still be a factor) keeping his targets down (four per game). Additionally, my projections will incorporate some league average regression because of the missed 2015 season. He's a player whose context matters.

Another receiver with a higher RotoWire projection is Brandin Cooks (7.7 pts vs. 11.0 pts). The overall numbers aren't that far off but the ranks are significant (20th vs. 7th). The biggest difference comes down to the projection for Brady and the entire New England offense production being high. Again, I need to see if defenses can be projected and if those projections are useful for predicting offense beyond just the spread values.

Two weeks down, 15 more to go to get these basic projections streamlined. The biggest takeaway I have found is what doesn't work (a lot) and the level of unpredictability. My results have been close, but I know I can do better. See everyone next week.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jeff Zimmerman
Jeff is a former RotoWire contributor. He wrote analytics-focused baseball and football articles for RotoWire. He is a three-time FSWA award winner, including the Football Writer of the Year and Best Football Print Article awards in 2016. The 2017 Tout Wars Mixed Auction champion and 2016 Tout Wars Head-to-Head champ, Zimmerman also contributes to FanGraphs.com, BaseballHQ and Baseball America.
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