The Stats Room: Week 2 QB Projections

The Stats Room: Week 2 QB Projections

This article is part of our The Stats Room series.

I've been working my way through basic football projections and last week was the first time I could put them to the test. While I only did quarterbacks and it was a horrible week for quarterback play, the results are encouraging. Besides looking back on the past results, I will post the basic rookie quarterback rates and next week's projections.

For evaluating last week's projections, we will use the total number of points in which the standard RotoWire and my projections were off. Additionally, I just took the average of all the projected values (15.8 points) and saw how far they were off.

When I posted the projections last week, I inserted the projected RotoWire points but later discovered it uses 0.05 points per pass yard. With most owners using 0.04 points per yard passing, I had to recalculated the values.

For reference, I had two systems for estimating pass attempts, the Vegas line and previous season attempts. I found the previous season attempts to be most accurate. I use a final hybrid model that uses the Vegas line value if the quarterback threw very little or none in the previous season.

I compared the average amount each value was off from the actual results and the standard deviation for the differences. The total will show an overall accuracy while the standard deviation will show grouped up are the final differences.

For example, if one system was off zero points for 16 quarterbacks and 14 for the other

I've been working my way through basic football projections and last week was the first time I could put them to the test. While I only did quarterbacks and it was a horrible week for quarterback play, the results are encouraging. Besides looking back on the past results, I will post the basic rookie quarterback rates and next week's projections.

For evaluating last week's projections, we will use the total number of points in which the standard RotoWire and my projections were off. Additionally, I just took the average of all the projected values (15.8 points) and saw how far they were off.

When I posted the projections last week, I inserted the projected RotoWire points but later discovered it uses 0.05 points per pass yard. With most owners using 0.04 points per yard passing, I had to recalculated the values.

For reference, I had two systems for estimating pass attempts, the Vegas line and previous season attempts. I found the previous season attempts to be most accurate. I use a final hybrid model that uses the Vegas line value if the quarterback threw very little or none in the previous season.

I compared the average amount each value was off from the actual results and the standard deviation for the differences. The total will show an overall accuracy while the standard deviation will show grouped up are the final differences.

For example, if one system was off zero points for 16 quarterbacks and 14 for the other 16, they averaged points with a standard deviation of 7.1. Now, if another system was off by seven points for everyone one, it still averaged seven points but had a standard deviation of zero. It was more consistent with its projections.

Note: Rookie DeShone Kizer was not projected last week.

Here are the results from Week 1.

PLAYERVEGAS LINEPREV PASS ATTHYBRIDROTO
WIRE
AVGACTUALVEGAS LINEPREV PASS ATTHYBRIDROTO
WIRE
AVG
Aaron Rodgers 19.6 20.3 20.3 21.8 15.8 16.5 3.1 3.7 3.7 5.3 0.7
Alex Smith 18.2 17.2 17.2 12.0 15.8 31.0 12.8 13.8 13.8 19.0 15.2
Andy Dalton 17.4 17.5 17.5 16.3 15.8 -3.0 20.4 20.5 20.5 19.3 18.8
B.Roethlisberger 16.4 16.5 16.5 17.6 15.8 15.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.9 0.1
Blake Bortles 15.4 17.5 17.5 11.5 15.8 10.3 5.1 7.2 7.2 1.2 5.5
Brian Hoyer 15.9 15.0 15.0 11.4 15.8 3.2 12.6 11.8 11.8 8.2 12.6
Cam Newton 19.6 18.5 18.5 18.2 15.8 13.1 6.5 5.4 5.4 5.0 2.7
Carson Palmer 15.8 17.0 17.0 16.8 15.8 9.0 6.9 8.0 8.0 7.8 6.8
Carson Wentz 15.6 16.4 16.4 14.5 15.8 18.9 3.2 2.5 2.5 4.3 3.1
Dak Prescott 19.0 15.9 15.9 16.5 15.8 17.1 1.9 1.2 1.2 0.7 1.3
Derek Carr 17.3 16.8 16.8 17.3 15.8 18.7 1.4 1.9 1.9 1.4 2.9
Drew Brees 16.6 18.9 18.9 17.4 15.8 15.6 1.0 3.3 3.3 1.7 0.2
Eli Manning 15.4 16.1 16.1 16.7 15.8 6.7 8.7 9.4 9.4 10.0 9.1
Jared Goff 14.9 12.8 12.8 11.9 15.8 16.4 1.5 3.7 3.7 4.5 0.6
Joe Flacco 15.2 17.5 17.5 13.9 15.8 6.8 8.3 10.7 10.7 7.0 9.0
Josh McCown 14.7 14.9 14.9 4.9 15.8 9.5 5.3 5.4 5.4 4.6 6.3
Kirk Cousins 17.7 18.3 18.3 18.6 15.8 10.6 7.1 7.7 7.7 8.0 5.2
Marcus Mariota 19.4 16.0 16.0 17.9 15.8 18.8 0.6 2.9 2.9 1.0 3.0
Matt Ryan 19.2 17.7 17.7 19.9 15.8 17.9 1.2 0.3 0.3 2.0 2.1
Matthew Stafford 17.7 17.6 17.6 17.2 15.8 27.1 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.9 11.3
Mike Glennon 17.0 7.8 17.0 12.5 15.8 12.5 4.5 4.7 4.5 0.0 3.3
Philip Rivers 15.8 16.4 16.4 14.5 15.8 17.7 1.9 1.2 1.2 3.2 1.9
Russell Wilson 21.1 19.8 19.8 17.4 15.8 8.3 12.8 11.4 11.4 9.1 7.5
Sam Bradford 16.8 17.0 17.0 14.1 15.8 25.5 8.7 8.6 8.6 11.4 9.7
Scott Tolzien 17.4 10.7 10.7 7.3 15.8 1.3 16.1 9.3 9.3 6.0 14.5
Tom Brady 17.3 17.9 17.9 22.6 15.8 10.7 6.6 7.2 7.2 11.9 5.1
Tom Savage 16.2 12.6 12.6 7.7 15.8 -1.5 17.7 14.1 14.1 9.2 17.3
Trevor Siemian 15.6 15.5 15.5 8.9 15.8 22.7 7.1 7.2 7.2 13.8 6.9
Tyrod Taylor 19.8 17.7 17.7 16.0 15.8 18.8 1.0 1.1 1.1 2.8 3.0
Average 17.2 16.3 16.6 14.9 15.8 13.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.4
Standard Dev 1.7 2.6 2.1 4.2 0.0 8.1 5.4 4.8 4.8 5.1 5.3

Overall, it was close across the board with all my misses being on the down side (Dalton, Flacco, Savage, Wilson and Hoyer). Alex Smith was the only quarter back to be 10 points over his projection while five were 10 below. Historically, the average was 15.1 points, so I was going to be a bit high.

The main takeaway I found, no matter the projection system, was that most quarterbacks fell into a range of outcomes of +/- 7 points. While the starting at a higher projected value is better, the weekly variance is huge and unpredictable.

One issue I had with the first week was an inability to project rookie quarterbacks. I found the historic composite value for all rookies and used it as a projection. I tried to incorporate draft position to see if the higher the pick, the better the performance. I found no correlation.

While I was doing the quarterback values, I did the same for wide receivers and running backs. Again, I found no correlation with draft pick and production. I plan on examining these values during the offseason to digger deeper for signs of talent. For now, here are the rate stats I will use.

POSCOMP%Y/RECTD/RECINT/ATTRUSH ATT/PASS ATTRUSH Y/ATTTD/RUSHFUM/TOUCH
QB 56.5 11.3 0.057 0.034 0.114 4.2 0.045 0.009
WR 53.8 13.2 0.078 x x x x 0.018
RB 72.4 7.9 0.025 x x 4.1 0.007 0.008

Week 2 Projections

With the ability to project rookies, here are the projected numbers for Week 2. For the second week, I tried to figure out if the first week's pass attempts would help in projecting the second week. They really didn't. With no in-season adjustment, here are the Week 2 projections using the following scoring system.

 Passing Yards: 0.04
 
 Passing TD: 4

 Turnover: -2

 Rushing Yards: 0.1
 Rushing TD: 6

PLAYERVEGAS LINEPASS ATTHYBRIDROTOWIREDIFF
Aaron Rodgers 20.0 20.3 20.3 22.4 -2.1
Alex Smith 18.6 17.2 17.2 14.1 3.1
Andy Dalton 16.5 17.5 17.5 16.9 0.6
Ben Roethlisberger 16.4 16.5 16.5 16.9 -0.3
Blake Bortles 15.9 17.5 17.5 13.4 4.1
Brian Hoyer 14.0 15.0 15.0 9.5 5.5
Jacoby Brissett 16.6 10.9 16.6 11.6 5.0
Cam Newton 18.4 18.5 18.5 19.8 -1.3
Carson Palmer 15.1 17.0 17.0 15.1 1.8
Carson Wentz 15.4 16.4 16.4 14.5 1.9
Dak Prescott 18.1 15.9 15.9 18.2 -2.3
Derek Carr 15.3 16.8 16.8 18.0 -1.2
Deshaun Watson 12.1 x 12.1 11.9 0.3
DeShone Kizer 12.2 x 12.2 9.6 2.6
Drew Brees 17.0 18.9 18.9 20.3 -1.4
Eli Manning 15.0 16.1 16.1 15.6 0.5
Jameis Winston 15.5 16.1 16.1 18.3 -2.3
Jared Goff 14.9 12.8 12.8 12.1 0.7
Jay Cutler 16.8 14.2 14.2 13.7 0.5
Joe Flacco 14.5 17.5 17.5 14.7 2.8
Josh McCown 14.0 14.9 14.9 4.5 10.3
Kirk Cousins 17.3 18.3 18.3 18.5 -0.2
Marcus Mariota 18.0 16.0 16.0 18.9 -2.9
Matt Ryan 19.9 17.7 17.7 19.9 -2.3
Matthew Stafford 16.5 17.6 17.6 16.0 1.6
Mike Glennon 15.9 7.8 15.9 11.4 4.5
Philip Rivers 16.2 16.4 16.4 17.3 -0.9
Russell Wilson 19.4 19.8 19.8 20.6 -0.8
Sam Bradford 15.9 17.0 17.0 12.7 4.3
Tom Brady 17.9 17.9 17.9 24.0 -6.1
Trevor Siemian 15.3 15.5 15.5 8.2 7.2
Tyrod Taylor 19.1 17.7 17.7 15.2 2.5
Average 16.5 15.4 1.1

The previous season pass attempt model was used for Jacoby Brissett and Mike Glennon (few 2016 attempts) and DeShone Kizer and Deshaun Watson (rookies). Understandably, the system hates rookies.

The biggest difference is my projections being on the high side (about one point on average) mainly because no one is projected to have a value less than 12 points. This is the one disparity I've seen each of the first two weeks. While sub-12 point weeks exist, they happen just as much to both good and bad quarterbacks.

That's it for this week and hope for some improvements for Week 3. For now, I am working on wide receiver, which are showing some promising signs when it comes to target projections.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jeff Zimmerman
Jeff is a former RotoWire contributor. He wrote analytics-focused baseball and football articles for RotoWire. He is a three-time FSWA award winner, including the Football Writer of the Year and Best Football Print Article awards in 2016. The 2017 Tout Wars Mixed Auction champion and 2016 Tout Wars Head-to-Head champ, Zimmerman also contributes to FanGraphs.com, BaseballHQ and Baseball America.
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