Game Spotlight: Reverting to Type

The Game Spotlight series will be posted on Wednesdays from now on in order to fit in a preview of the weekly Thursday matchup. This week we are blessed with... let's see. Ah, yes, the Jets are visiting the Browns. The blurbs beyond that will discuss KC vs. SF, ATL vs. NO, and ARZ vs. CHI.

CLE vs. NYJ, Thursday

Open: 40 O/U, CLE -3.5
Live: 39.5 O/U, CLE -3

To be serious, this matchup isn't nearly so grim as it would have been a couple years ago. The Browns are a horrific mess but in a humorous way at least, while Jets fans have real reason for enthusiastic optimism with Sam Darnold leading the franchise. He's going to be incredibly good, and I think there's a good chance he's an at least average starting quarterback within a month or two. He'll be top-five at the position within three years, I'd guess.

But for this week I worry for him just a bit. The Browns defense has a lot of talent in the front seven, and guys like Myles Garrett and Larry Ogunjobi in particular are frightening. Perhaps his past proximity to Sean Payton gave him a one-time advantage last week, but defensive coordinator Gregg Williams had the defense well instructed on the tendencies of Drew Brees and company, so perhaps the Browns defense will receive astute direction on Darnold's tendencies as well.

In any case, as Darnold goes Quincy Enunwa likely goes as well. Enunwa's 21 targets are nearly twice that of the second-leading target recipient, Terrelle Pryor with 11. Robby Anderson, last year's WR1 with the Jets, has seemingly functioned as a decoy to this point, playing 88 snaps to Pryor's 68 but seeing just eight targets, catching four for 68 yards and a touchdown. We know Anderson can burn teams deep, and perhaps Enunwa's emergence will force a defensive adjustment that leads Darnold to look more toward Anderson as a counter-adjustment. Enunwa generally plays the slot in three wide, with the Jets banking on Anderson and Pryor's speed and length pushing back the safeties on the outside. When the safeties creep up to key on Enunwa, Anderson should get his looks. Until then, though, it's hard to recommend him as more than a tournament consideration in DFS.

With no 60-yard runs to boost his box score, Isaiah Crowell fell back to earth against the Dolphins, though he ran effectively enough. His usage actually escalated in Week 2, and it's easy to imagine him having higher usage yet if the Jets safe leads this year. You have the Revenge Game narrative going for this one, but that Cleveland is the home favorite means it might take an upset scenario for Crowell's usage to remain stable here. Presuming soundness in that spread, Bilal Powell might have the safer projection here thanks to his greater contributions as a pass catcher. Powell could fit into the game plan at the outset if the Jets seek to slow the Browns pass rush with some screen looks. The respective workload limitations of Crowell and Powell generally limit them to flex consideration, in any case.

Through two games the Jets have allowed 4.8 yards per play (fourth best) and 18.5 points per game (tied for sixth best), so with the Browns you're pretty much banking on the homefield advantage. There isn't anything about the Jets that looks easy, and Tyrod Taylor has made nothing look easy in his first two starts, either. The line looked worse to me in Week 2 than in Week 1, and things didn't go well in Week 1. When he does have time, Taylor still shows little or no ability to anticipate open route runners, instead needing an obvious passing lane on a beat defender before pulling the trigger reliably. The Saints seemed to run more zone defense last week than in Week 1 – perhaps for the dual function of adding eyes in case Taylor scrambles, while making coverage assignments more ambiguous to capitalize on his limited anticipation ability. The Jets might take a similar approach, and if so I think that'd be to Taylor's detriment. His skill set works best against man coverage, where it's easier to guess who's going where after the snap.

If Taylor gets going, so should Jarvis Landry, though you'll need to followup on his status given that he's questionable with a knee issue. While his seven targets against New Orleans were a disappointing figure, that was just the result of Taylor only throwing 30 passes. Landry can generally be expected to hover around that 10-target mark. Antonio Callaway probably warrants the second-highest over/under among Browns players for receiving stats. His burning speed was on full display with his 47-yard touchdown last week, somehow gaining on a ball that looked overthrown initially. David Njoku hasn't gotten going yet, but his 14 targets in two games are otherwise somewhat encouraging. The Jets don't have rookie safeties anymore, but last year they struggled to keep tight ends out of the end zone, conceding 61 catches for 776 yards and nine touchdowns on 105 targets.

If you believe the spread is sound on this game, then you would consequently have to like Carlos Hyde's workload projection. Even after a tie and a loss to two heavily favored teams, Hyde heads into this game with 38 carries logged. With 105 yards to show for it you have to wonder why, but those are the results all the same. Nick Chubb is an objectively better player and the Browns can only fail to notice for so long, but there are no hints that this status quo will change at any particular point, and especially not this week. Duke Johnson's invisibility in the offense through two weeks is embarrassing for a team that just gave him a contract extension, but welcome to Cleveland. The Browns in any case indicated an intention to specifically get Duke more touches, but that's saying next to nothing considering he has just 11 touches in two games.

I guess I'll pick the Jets for the mild upset here. It's a rookie on a short week, but Darnold is the truth.

Kansas City vs. San Francisco, 1:00

Open: 52.5 O/U, KC -4.5
Live: 56.5 O/U, KC -6.5

Yeesh, look at that point jump. We are officially banking on the unprecedented with Patrick Mahomes (7000 DK, 8900 FD), and why not? He was merciless against the Chargers and Steelers alike, both road games against playoff contenders, and even varying schemes between the Chargers' press man defense and a Pittsburgh one that features more cover-2 principles. Neither man coverage nor zone has given much hope for those looking to slow Mahomes, and if a high-pressure road environment can't slow him, then why would he slow at Arrowhead? Perhaps the homefield advantage will make the Kansas City defense play better, lessening the need for Mahomes to throw, but that's the only concern that comes to mind, and it's not much.

Through two weeks it's Travis Kelce (6700 DK, 7500 FD) with the most targets on the team (16), followed by Tyreek Hill (8500 DK, 8200 FD) with 14, and Sammy Watkins (5100 DK, 6200 FD) with 12. The 49ers did a good job of containing tight ends last year, but the same was true of Pittsburgh, and that didn't save them from Kelce last week. Tyreek appears matchup-proof indefinitely, and both he and Watkins could see a blowup scenario if the 49ers manage to make a game of it.

I love Kareem Hunt this week (6000 DK, 7900 FD). His target volume is in the tank with just two so far this year, but this is a stark contrast to both established history and Andy Reid's stated intentions of getting Hunt more pass-catching work this year. We know how good this guy is. We know how an offense as high-scoring as this one will almost certainly include a top-scoring running back. He's. Due.

Jimmy Garoppolo (6500 DK, 7400 FD), as most weeks, is an interesting tournament consideration. I wouldn't want him in cash games just because Arrowhead can be a weird place to play as a road team, but if he's on his rhythm he should be able to cut up this Chiefs secondary. That would be particularly true if Marquise Goodwin (5500 DK, 5800 FD) is able to return from his quadriceps injury. If Goodwin is back, I'll have lineups with him. Dante Pettis (4300 DK, 5200 FD) played ahead of Trent Taylor and would make the more interesting sub if Goodwin sits again. In either case, Pierre Garcon (5300 DK, 5600 FD) is a strong tournament consideration to me, though his slow start is admittedly discouraging.

George Kittle (4500 DK, 5800 FD) was a letdown last week, but your assessment of him shouldn't change. He's still one of the most athletic and productive tight ends in the league, and he enters a game with the highest over/under on the slate. A potential return from Eric Berry (heel) isn't that intimidating given it would be his first game back from an Achilles' tendon tear. The Chiefs were lit up by the lumbering Jesse James last week, and Kittle is far better.

Unless you're banking on a San Francisco upset, it's hard to see this going well for Alfred Morris (3700 DK, 5500 FD), but in a league this crazy I can't argue against it if anyone wants to wager on the upset logic. Matt Breida (5400 DK, 6200 FD) is the better player generally, but a catch-up scenario especially stabilizes his projection. The Chiefs linebackers can't cover or chase him in the open field – Kansas City has allowed 242 receiving yards to running backs in two weeks.

Atlanta vs. New Orleans, 1,00

Open: 54.5 O/U, ATL -4
Live: 53 O/U, ATL -3

Surprising offensive struggles for both teams has this over/under lower than you might expect, and the absences of Devonta Freeman (knee) and Mark Ingram (suspension) probably play into that a bit. The Falcons managed to put up 31 points in a victory over Carolina last week, though the Saints posted just 21 against the Browns.

Particularly given that Cam Newton lit up the Atlanta defense last week, I think you have to like the chances of Drew Brees (6400 DK, 8500 FD) bouncing back against a Falcons defense without its two best players in Keanu Neal and Deion Jones. The Browns pass rush got to him a bit last week and he made some atypical misfires that he's unlikely to repeat, especially against a team he generally plays well against.

Michael Thomas (8900 DK, 9000 FD) is seeing incredible usage so far and, while it hasn't been the best results for the Saints, they have no choice but to persist with this arrangement. Maybe he's pricey, but it's just about certain that Thomas can only have a bad game if Brees does. The same is true of Alvin Kamara (9500 DK, 8700 FD), though he can put up huge numbers even if Brees is off. Atlanta couldn't contain Christian McCaffrey in the receiving game last week. Ted Ginn (4700 DK, 6600 FD) is probably the same hit-or-miss gamble he always is. He totaled six catches for 86 yards and a touchdown over his two matchups with Atlanta last year. There might be a remaining window of elevated usage until Ingram returns. Ben Watson (3100 DK, 4900 FD) has disappointed, but Brees just missed him on what would have been an uncovered touchdown off goal-line playaction against Cleveland.

Matt Ryan (5700 DK, 7700 FD) thrilled his owners with two rushing touchdowns against Carolina, but going 23-of-28 for 272 yards, two touchdowns and an interception is the more sustainable source of encouragement. Calvin Ridley (3700 DK, 5000 FD) and Austin Hooper (2900 DK, 5200 FD) came though with big games last week to offset the modest numbers of Julio Jones (7900 DK, 8700 FD), but the vice versa scenario is of course more likely in any given week. You could reason that this week less so than others since Julio figures to see a lot of Marshon Lattimore, but it probably doesn't move the needle for me. Mohamed Sanu (3800 DK, 5300 FD) was invisible last week, but he still played more snaps than Ridley.

Tevin Coleman (6400 DK, 7300 FD) will be chalky if Freeman misses another game, and for good reason. Against a Carolina defense that's normally tough against the run, Coleman produced 107 yards on 16 carries in his start last week. I've said it before, I think Coleman is better than Freeman, so I have higher expectations generally. It will be tough for me to make lineups without him. The big-play upside with him still isn't properly realized by the public.

Arizona vs. Chicago, 4:25

Open: 37.5 O/U, CHI -4.5
Live: 37.5 O/U, CHI -6

It didn't take long for money to land on Chicago on this one, and now they're favored by nearly a touchdown on the road, even with one of the league's sloppiest offenses through two weeks. Is Arizona really this bad, or is this a trap of some sort?

Chicago of course could blow it, but I honestly can't remember a team looking as bad through two weeks as Steve Wilks' Cardinals have. He's acknowledged the need to get David Johnson (7200 DK, 8200 FD) more work at wide receiver, so they'll presumably at least make the effort. Whether they'll do so competently and whether the Bears will be ready for it are two additional questions to consider, and the evidence isn't reassuring to me. Vic Fangio is a smart defensive coordinator, and while the Bears offense has been gross its defense has been intimidating in these first two weeks. Sam Bradford has been a complete wreck, and each of his first two meltdown games this year were against weaker defenses than this Chicago one. With all this said, there will be few slates in his career where Johnson is owned as lowly as he will be, and at unusually low prices. Stupid things happen in this league, and something like the Cardinals rallying for their pitied coach and pulling off an upset wouldn't be especially weird.

With that said, I have to pick the Bears defense as the advantage here, so it would only be in cheap, huge-field tournaments where I play Johnson. The same is true of Larry Fitzgerald (5400 DK, 6700 FD), who's playing through a hamstring injury in addition to the organizational collapse around him. Fitz might be able to physically bully the otherwise competent slot corner for Chicago, Bryce Callahan, who stands at 5-foot-9, 188 pounds, but will Bradford be able to get him the ball even if so? He probably won't have much time before the pass rush roars through.

If the Bears do avoid the trap scenario, then it could shape up as a breakout game for Jordan Howard (6500 DK, 7400 FD). The 117 yards and zero touchdowns through two games is discouraging, but 29 carries and nine targets are the more important numbers. The Cardinals offense and defense alike have been awful, so this could be a scenario where Howard gets a big workload at plus efficiency and in better field position than usual. Tarik Cohen is a tournament-only consideration in DFS unless he starts seeing more wide receiver snaps, and he has an ankle thing to keep an eye on this week.

Mitch Zoolander (5500 DK, 6500 FD) has looked terrible so far, but hopefully it's growing pains of a new scheme that can be addressed. Because the opponent looks so vulnerable, I might make some tournament lineups with Trubisky all the same. This is still an uptempo scheme and he runs a lot, so I like the chances of usage within scoring range. He's on pace for 552 pass attempts and 96 carries, but those numbers could go up if he starts extending more drives.

Allen Robinson (5400 DK, 6500 FD) has been busy with 21 targets in two games, and it's not clear whether Patrick Peterson will be able to shadow him given the alignment variation the Bears show from snap to snap. Taylor Gabriel (3800 DK, 5000 FD) only has 55 yards receiving, but also nine catches on 12 targets along with three carries for 17 yards. Anthony Miller (3700 DK, 5400 FD) played far behind both Robinson and Gabriel, so as much as I love his talent it might be too early to expect much from him. Trey Burton (3900 DK, 5700 FD) has been incredibly inefficient, mostly due to Trubisky's poor play, but he has a red-zone target in each game and might be the team's best receiving option in that part of the field.