NFL Game Previews: Breaking Down Week 13

Dallas at Minnesota (+3), 44 o/u – Thursday, 8:25 pm EST

Comments: It's Dak Prescott's world, folks – we're just living in it. I don't even want to call him a rookie anymore, as he refuses to play like one. His Week 1 YPA was 5.0, but he hasn't posted one lower than 7.4 since, and he's only been in the sevens twice during the Cowboys' 10-game winning streak. That's absurd efficiency for anybody. To put it another way, the only two QBs with a better YPA than his 8.34 this season are Matt Ryan and Tom Brady. Facing the Vikings on the road should be Prescott's toughest test yet, as they are second in the NFL in QB rating against at 74.3, but we've heard that one before. ... The Vikings say they want to attack downfield more, and this would be a good week to try it. The Cowboys' secondary is beat up, with Morris Claiborne still recovering from a sports hernia, J.J. Wilcox out with a thigh bruise and Barry Church trying to play with a cast on his forearm, and the defense overall ranks 28th in QB rating against (101.9). Getting Stefon Diggs (knee) back would help too. It's one thing to say it, though, and another to actually do it. The Vikings have been one of the most extreme dink-and-dunk teams in the league, with only Matthew Stafford and Alex Smith getting a higher percentage of their passing yards after the catch than Sam Bradford, while Bradford's 3.25 air yards per attempt is the second-lowest among starting QBs (only Smith's 3.09 is worse). Sean Lee, uncharacteristically, hasn't been as involved in the pass defense this season, managing only one pass defended and no interceptions (he had 23 PDefs and 12 INTs over 60 career games heading into 2016), but if Minnesota falls back into its usual habits, the linebacker could find himself very busy in the middle of the field. ... If you're looking for a prop bet for this game, consider putting some money down that someone will return a kick for a touchdown. The Vikings give up 27 yards per kickoff return, second most in the league, and have already surrendered a 98-yard TD return. Meanwhile, the Cowboys allow 11.4 yards per punt return, seventh most, and are one of only two teams in the bottom eight not to allow a punt return TD yet. Minnesota also has three return TDs this season, though Marcus Sherels, who has two on punt returns, is out with a rib injury.


Predictions: Ezekiel Elliott has his worst game since Week 1, but that still results in 80 combined yards and a score. Prescott throws for 220 yards and a TD to Jason Witten. Lucky Whitehead also takes a kick to the house. Jerick McKinnon leads the Vikings' backfield with 50 combined yards. Bradford throws for 260 yards and touchdowns to Diggs and Kyle Rudolph. Cowboys, 24-20

Kansas City (+3.5) at Atlanta, 49 o/u – Sunday, 1:00 pm EST

Comments: The Chiefs' big win in Denver last week (and their 3-0 divisional record) has them sitting pretty for at least a wild card spot right now, but their schedule down the stretch does them no favors. A trip to Atlanta sets up poorly for Kansas City, as their offense isn't built for shootouts and their defense wouldn't seem to have the horses to slow down the Falcons, but they have won four straight on the road so they must be doing something right. What explosiveness the Chiefs have right now is being supplied by Tyreek Hill – he scored three times last week (one rushing TD, one receiving, one return), and Andy Reid's willingness to find ways to get the ball in his hands suggests that he realizes he can't rely on Alex Smith dinking and dunking the opposition to death all the time. With Desmond Trufant on IR, Atlanta may not have anyone who can cover Hill either. ... Of course, the Falcons have their own lightning-quick gadget player in Taylor Gabriel, who scored twice on bubble screens in Week 12, but also a lot more weapons besides. The Chiefs' defense has struggled against the run this year – they're 29th in rushing yards allowed per game at 121.4 – so while Gabriel and Julio Jones will get plenty of attention, the key to the game could be the effectiveness of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman. Coleman saw just 10 touches last week in his return from a hamstring injury, while Freeman saw about twice the workload, and the duo scored a trio of TDs between them. If Kansas City can't slow them down, this one could get out of hand quickly. ... Other than the loss of Trufant, Atlanta is fairly healthy heading into this one. Jeremy Maclin (groin) is questionable for KC, while Justin Houston (shoulder) and Dontari Poe (back) will both attempt to play through injuries.

Predictions: Spencer Ware tops 100 combined yards and scores. Smith throws for 220 yards and TDs to Hill and Albert Wilson. Freeman gains 90 combined yards, but Coleman piles up 110 yards and two touchdowns. Matt Ryan throws for 310 yards and two touchdowns to Julio Jones, who pulls down 140 yards. Falcons 34-24

Detroit (+6) at New Orleans, 53.5 o/u – Sunday, 1:00 pm EST

Comments: This week's designated fantasy fireworks factory is in New Orleans, where two defenses that can't stop anyone face two offenses with reputations for airing it out. The Lions' rep may not be entirely deserved, though. They've averaged only 19.4 points in winning four of their last five, and have only topped 30 points in a game twice this season (Week 1 against the Colts, and Week 6 against the Rams). Matthews Stafford has just a 5:1 TD:INT over that five-game stretch, and while they did face the stingy Vikings twice in there, one combined TD pass in two games against Washington and the Jaguars isn't exactly a sign that the offense is clicking. The Saints have also shown real improvement on the back end too, creeping all the way up to 21st in QB rating against (93.9). The line suggests Detroit will put up about 24 points Sunday, but recent history suggests that much offense might be more than they can handle. ... Drew Brees has no such problems. He's thrown at least three TD passes in every home game but one this year (the Seahawks held him to a measly one in Week 8), while the Lions are dead last in the league with a 106.4 QB rating against – and again, that's with two games against Sam Bradford and one against Blake Bortles in the books. The question is not whether Brees will put up big numbers, the question is who will be on the other end. Brandin Cooks' disappearing act last week seems like an aberration, but Josh Hill's snap dominance over Coby Fleener may not be. Someone will have a great receiving day for the Saints on Sunday, and DFS fortunes could be won and lost based on who Brees showers with attention. ... Mark Ingram (toe) is iffy for Sunday, which could leave Tim Hightower with a big workload for the Saints. Theo Riddick (ankle) and Marvin Jones (thigh) are questionable for the Lions, but expected to play.

Predictions: Riddick gains 100 combined yards, mostly through the air, and adds a receiving TD. Stafford throws for 280 yards and a second score to Anquan Boldin. Hightower manages 70 yards, but Brees explodes for 370 yards and four touchdowns, finding Cooks, Michael Thomas, Fleener and Hill. Saints 31-17

Los Angeles (+13.5) at New England, 44.5 o/u – Sunday, 1:00 pm EST

Comments: Jared Goff didn't exactly keep the chains moving last week, but three TDs in his second NFL start is a sign that maybe Jeff Fisher should have out him under center a long time ago. (Of course, it could also be a sign that Fisher brought the first overall pick along at exactly the right speed, but frankly he hasn't done much to earn the benefit of the doubt.) On paper, the Patriots present the same sort of matchup as the Saints, believe it or not – the two defenses are nearly joined at the hip statistically (Pats: 62.8 percent completion rate allowed, 16:5 TD:INT, 22 sacks; Saints: 63.0 percent completion rate, 17:7 TD:INT, 22 sacks), and Goff will probably need to sling it in a futile effort to keep up with Tom Brady. ... With Rob Gronkowski now out for the year (due to surgery on a ruptured disc he suffered two freaking weeks ago, but that's a rant for another time), the Patriots' passing game suddenly looks a lot less dangerous. Julian Edelman has 160 yards and a TD over the last two games, but needed 28 targets to get there. Martellus Bennett is dealing with ankle and shoulder injuries of his own, and hasn't been able to take advantage of Gronk's absence (4-36-0 on seven targets the last two weeks). The emerging star has been Malcolm Mitchell, who's turned 12 targets in those two games into nine catches, 140 yards and three scores. He's got decent size at 6-foot-1 and 200 lbs., and Brady has started looking his way in the red zone, so that production could easily continue. The Rams defense has given up 20 TD passes this season, tied for ninth-worst, so whoever gets those red zone looks for the Pats could be able to turn them into gold. ... Tavon Austin (chest) hasn't been able to practice this week and is listed as doubtful for the Rams. As per usual, Bill Belichick has listed everyone with a hangnail or paper cut as questionable, but other than Gronk all the Pats' key skill players should be on the field.

Predictions: Todd Gurley runs for 60 yards. Goff throws for 230 yards and TDs to Kenny Briit and Brian Quick, but gets picked off twice. LeGarrette Blount gains 70 yards and a touchdown. Brady throws for 290 yards and TDs to Mitchell and Matthew Lengel. Patriots 27-14

Denver at Jacksonville (+4), 40.5 o/u – Sunday, 1:00 pm EST

Comments: All of a sudden, the Broncos can't beat their division rivals. Last week's OT loss to the Chiefs left them 1-3 against the rest of the AFC West, which puts the defending champs in a tough spot in the standings given that they're two games back of the Raiders already. Fortunately, they'll have the Jaguars to take their frustrations out on, although they'll have to do it with starting QB Trevor Siemian (foot). Jacksonville's defense is pretty bad (24th in rushing yards allowed per game, 22nd in QB rating against) but their inability to hold onto the ball is what's really been killing them. The Jags are a league-worst minus-15 in turnover differential, while their 22 giveaways is tied with the Jets for worst in the NFL, making them easy marks for an opportunistic Broncos defense. ... Increasingly, it's looking like 2015 was a giant aberration for the Jags' passing game, and the strongest evidence has been Allen Robinson's production. A few extra red zone looks aside, Robinson's 2016 has been nearly identical to his injury-plagued 2014, and a guy who looked set to join the league's elite WRs this year might instead be scrambling to crack 800 receiving yards. Denver, of course, has the NFL's best pass defense, so don't expect any kind of miraculous turnaround for ARob in Week 13. ... Allen Hurns and Chris Ivory are out for the Jags with hamstring injuries, while Julius Thomas (back) will also likely miss Sunday's game. Other than Siemian, the Broncos head into this one fairly healthy.

Predictions: Devontae Booker has his best game of the season, piling up 130 combined yards and a touchdown. Paxton Lynch throws for 210 yards and TDs to Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. Denard Robinson, and not T.J. Yeldon, leads the Jacksonville backfield with 60 yards. Blake Bortles is held to 160 yards and gets intercepted twice. Broncos 24-3

Houston (+6.5) at Green Bay, 45.5 o/u – Sunday, 1:00 pm EST

Comments: How are the Texans still in first place in the – oh, right, it's the AFC South. Despite dropping two straight home games and featuring a woeful minus-42 point differential on the season, Houston's still clinging to a half-game lead, but that's probably going to evaporate Sunday with the Titans on bye and the Texans in Lambeau. The Packers' secondary remains broken-down and vulnerable (they're 29th in QB rating against at 102.5), but Brock Osweiler is about the last quarterback you'd want to rely on to exploit it. Here's his YPAs this season on the road: 4.8 (at NE), 4.4 (at MIN), 3.2 (at DEN), 3.7 (at JAC), 6.2 (at OAK). That last one might seem to offer a bit of hope, but when a YPA in the low sixes is the best you can muster, "hope" isn't exactly the word I would use. ... Rather than looking to Osweiler's arm for a possible upset, Houston may want to pin their hopes on Aaron Rodgers' hamstring instead. Rodgers has been limited in practice this week, and while he'll almost certainly play, if his mobility is impacted by the strain he could be a sitting duck behind a suspect offensive line. He's been on an absolute tear lately, averaging 317.3 yards with a 17:3 TD:INT over the last six games, but the Texans have allowed only 14 passing TDs all season (tied for seventh in the league) and could be able to keep him in check if Rodgers can't buy himself time with his legs. ... While the snow forecast for Green Bay may not slow down the offenses much, it could pose a risk for anyone trying to play through something. In addition to Rodgers, MLB Jake Ryan (ankle) and CBs Damarious Randall (groin) and Demetri Goodson (knee) are dealing with lower body injuries for the Pack, while Lamar Miller (ankle plus ribs), DT Vince Wilfork (groin) and CB Kareem Jackson (hamstring) are one slip away from heading to the locker room for the Texans.

Predictions: Miller gains 70 yards and scores. Osweiler throws for 230 yards and a TD to DeAndre Hopkins. James Starks gains 80 combined yards and a touchdown. Rodgers gets held to 240 yards, but hits Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb for scores. Packers 24-14

Philadelphia at Cincinnati (PK), 42 o/u – Sunday, 1:00 pm EST

Comments: The Eagles may seem like pushovers sitting in the basement of the ultra-competitive NFC East, but take another look at their schedule. The last easy opponent – heck, the last team that has a current losing record – they faced was the Bears in Week 2, and since then it's been a parade of division leaders and wild card threats. Philly's actually third in the NFC in point differential at plus-41, and while their remaining slate (which includes three more divisional games) probably stops them from a late push for the playoffs, they should, in theory, be licking their chops at the opportunity to play spoiler. The three-win Bengals, who rank 28th in rushing yards allowed per game (120.5), will give them a great chance to get their backfield in sync without Ryan Mathews (out with a knee injury) and prove they haven't packed it in yet. ... Cinci hasn't won since a gimme against the Browns in Week 7, and now they'll have to try and do it without A.J. Green (hamstring) and Giovani Bernard (knee). Eek. Over that four-game winless streak, Andy Dalton has just a 4:4 TD:INT and 6.0 YPA, and a tilt against an Eagles pass defense that ranks eighth in QB rating against (87.2) isn't a likely spot for a turnaround. Tyler Eifert was the biggest beneficiary of Green's absence against Baltimore, but Dalton will probably have to find a new favorite target in Week 13 – Philly's given up a league-low 29 receptions to tight ends all season. ... The Bengals don't report any other key injuries, because the two they have are more than enough. Jordan Matthews (ankle) missed practice Friday and is also questionable for the Eagles.

Predictions: Wendell Smallwood hits for 90 yards and a score. Carson Wentz throws for 240 yards and TDs to Dorial Green-Beckham and Darren Sproles. Jeremy Hill pounds out 80 yards and a touchdown, while Dalton throws for 220 yards and a TD to Brandon LaFell. Eagles 24-20

Miami (+3) at Baltimore, 40.5 o/u – Sunday, 1:00 pm EST

Comments: Everybody knows the dice are loaded, and that the Cowboys have won 10 (whoops, make that 11) straight, while the Giants have won six straight to remain hot on their heels, but nobody seems to have noticed that the Dolphins are right there with them both, reeling off six straight wins of their own to put themselves in the thick of the AFC wild card chase. The next couple of weeks will determine whether they're for real, or just took advantage of a soft spot in their schedule. They've been averaging 26.8 points a game during their streak (no mean feat when Ryan Tannehill is your QB), but the Ravens have the stoutest run defense in the league, giving up 74.9 rushing yards a game with a 3.4 YPC, and their pass defense is in the top 10 in YPA, INTs and passing yards allowed per game. That adds up to a team allowing just 18.3 points per game, fourth in the league. If Adam Gase's offense can put up points against this bunch, consider them a legit playoff threat. ... It's going to be a dead sprint to the finish for the Ravens and Steelers for the AFC North title, which means it's time for Joe Flacco to get his act together. He's posted a 6:6 TD:INT over the last six games, and has only thrown multiple TDs twice in a game this season, forcing the defense to be at their best to give the team a chance to win every week. Granted, that's pretty much the formula the Ravens rode to a Super Bowl XLVII win, but while this year's defense might be good, it's not that good. It would help if someone would step up in the backfield, but Terrance West and Kenneth Dixon seem locked in a timeshare. Miami's secondary has arguably been better than Baltimore's, sitting seventh in QB rating against (85.6), so another mediocre line from Flacco and another close game seems likely. ... Jimmy Smith (back) is questionable but expected to play for the Ravens. DeVante Parker (back) are Kiko Alonso (hamstring) will likely be game-time decisions for the Fish.

Predictions: Jay Ajayi grinds out 60 yards and a touchdown. Tannehill throws for 200 yards but gets held out of the end zone. Kenneth Dixon leads the way for Baltimore with 80 yards and a score, while Flacco throws for 250 yards and a touchdown to Breshad Perriman. Ravens 17-16

San Francisco (+1.5) at Chicago, 43.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:05 pm EST

Comments: Since the Niners' bye in Week 8, Colin Kaepernick seems to have shaken off the last of his rust and re-emerged as a passable NFL quarterback. He's thrown for multiple TDs in three of those four games, and his 113 rushing yards last week against the Dolphins was vintage Kaep. The Bears have a mediocre (at best) pass defense, ranking 25th in QB rating against at 96.4, but the weather likely won't be conducive to either team airing it out. It'll be a cold and wet December day when San Fran touches down at, err, O'Hare, but forcing Kaepernick to keep the ball on the ground isn't necessarily a win for Chicago. ... With Jay Cutler headed for IR, the Bears' offense is now in the hands of Matt Barkley, who threw the ball a ridiculous 54 times last week and came up with 316 yards and three TDs last week against the Titans. He probably won't be that busy Sunday, though. The 49ers run defense remains historically bad, allowing 5.1 yards per carry and 171.8 rushing yards a game, which means Jordan Howard should have no problem rumbling for his fifth 100-yard performance of the season. ... Eddie Royal remains limited by a toe injury for the Bears ,while Quinton Patton is in the concussion protocol for the Niners, and it's a scathing indictment of both teams' depth charts at WR that either of them count as noteworthy enough to mention here.

Predictions: Carlos Hyde gains 80 yards. Kaepernick throws for 210 yards and a TD to Jeremy Kerley, while running in a score of his own. Howard rips off 130 yards and two touchdowns. Barkley throws for 190 yards and a score to Cameron Meredith. Bears 24-17

Buffalo (+3) at Oakland, 49 o/u – Sunday, 4:05 pm EST

Comments: The Bills so completely reflect the personality of their coach now, it's kind of scary. Against an also-ran team like the 49ers or a Brady-less Patriots, they will play the bully and kick the opposition when they're down. Against a real team though – for instance, a Brady-led Pats – they seem to fold. What that pattern bodes for Week 13 depends on whether you thin the Raiders are for real or not. Oakland's defense certainly isn't championship caliber, sitting 30th in YPC against (4.6) and in YPA against (7.9), but while that's great news for LeSean McCoy, Tyrod Taylor has thrown just three TD passes in the last five weeks combined due to a lack of healthy and/or reliable targets. And no, Sammy Watkins isn't either one yet, despite his 80 receiving yards in his return last week. He was on the field for just 25 snaps last week, and that workload might not increase any time soon. ... Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree remain in the wideout equivalent of a timeshare for the No. 1 job. Both have hit the century mark in targets, and while Cooper has more yards, Crabtree has more TDs. Fun fact: they're only come within 40 receiving yards of each other in the same week once this season, and that was against the Broncos, when everyone's production through the air gets flattened. They've also both managed to top 100 yards in the same game once, but that was against a Tampa defense that really isn't in the same league as Buffalo's. Based on DVOA it'll be Cooper's turn again for the big game (the Bills are 24th against WR1s, but eighth against WR2s), but with Ronald Darby (concussion) out, their secondary assignments could be in flux, so who knows, really. ... Crabtree is playing through an ankle injury, as is Latavius Murray, but both should play. Robert Woods (knee) is out for Buffalo, but Marquise Goodwin (wrist) seems likely to suit up.

Predictions: McCoy totals 120 combined yards and a touchdown. Taylor also runs for a score, and throws for 210 yards and a TD to Watkins. Murray gains 50 yards and a touchdown. Derek Carr throws for 320 yards and three TDs, two to Cooper (who pulls down 130 yards) and one to Seth Roberts. Raiders 31-24

NY Giants (+6) at Pittsburgh, 48.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 pm EST

Comments: It's amazing what you can do when you let your stars be, well, stars. The Giants finally won a game by more than one score last week as Odell Beckham caught two TDs, and Jason Pierre-Paul recorded three sacks and a fumble return touchdown. Beating up on the winless Browns isn't really an accomplishment, but the fact that New York didn't play down to their level probably counts for something. OBJ will have his work cut out for him to get back into the end zone Sunday, though – the Steelers have given up just 13 passing TDs this season, tied for fifth in the league. ... Of course, the Giants have given up only 10 passing TDs (tied for second with the Broncos and Seahawks), so that over/under line looks a bit sketchy. Ben Roethlisberger's tossed three touchdowns in two of his last three games though, and the third was the game in Cleveland when he was dealing with 25 mph winds. He's also been a juggernaut at home this season, racking up 1088 yards and a 12:0 TD:INT over his last three games at Heinz Field. The key for Pittsburgh could be Ladarius Green – if the Giants' pass defense has a weak spot it's against tight ends (23rd against them by DVOA), and Mike Tomlin suggested this week that Green was ready for an increased role. ... Darrius Heyward-Bey (foot) is the biggest name of note on the injury report for the Steelers. The Giants also head into the game with a basically clean slate health-wise.

Predictions: Rashad Jennings grinds out 70 yards. Eli Manning throws for 240 yards and a TD to Beckham. Le'Veon Bell picks up 110 combined yards and a touchdown, while Roethlisberger throws for 310 yards and scores to Green and Antonio Brown, who hauls in 130 yards. Steelers 27-13

Washington (+2.5) at Arizona, 49.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 pm EST

Comments: You can't fault Kirk Cousins for Washington coming up short against the Cowboys in Week 12. After another huge game, he's now averaging a ridiculous 386 yards over his last four starts with a 10:1 TD:INT, but the Cardinals' secondary should provide a little stiffer competition than Dallas' banged-up crew. Arizona's third in QB rating against (76.5), has allowed a league-low nine passing TDs all season, and is the only team left in the league with more INTs (10) than TDs allowed. ... The Cards, meanwhile, continue to punch way below their weight class. Carson Palmer's inability to get the ball into the end zone (or rather, the offensive line's inability to give him the time to do it – he's been sacked more times this season in 10 games than he was in 16 games last year) is stifling what, statistically, is still one of the better all-around teams in the league. Washington's run defense, which has allowed a league-worst 16 TDs, should at least keep David Johnson, and anyone with fantasy shares in him, happy. ... Tyrann Mathieu lasted one game before aggravating his shoulder injury, and he's listed as doubtful for Arizona. Jordan Reed is also out for Washington with a shoulder issue.

Predictions: Rob Kelley picks up 60 yards and a touchdown. Cousins finds some success, throwing for 280 yards and TDs to Jamison Crowder and Pierre Garcon. Johnson explodes for 160 combined yards and two scores. Palmer throws for 290 yards and touchdowns to Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd, for once. Cardinals 28-27

Tampa Bay (+3.5) at San Diego, 47.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 pm EST

Comments: Jameis Winston keeps running into these tough secondaries and surviving relatively unscathed, and this week is no exception. Over six games since the Bucs' bye, he's got a 13:3 TD:INT, but the Chargers lead the league with 14 interceptions, even with Jason Verrett on IR. Of course, it helps when half your pass attempts (OK, fine, 32.5 percent) are in places where only Mike Evans can get them. Over those six games, Evans has six TDs (three two-score performances) and three 100-yard games, narrowly missing a fourth by four yards. ... Melvin Gordon has slowed down a bit, failing to crack 100 combined yards against the Texans for the first time since Week 6, and he hasn't scored a TD in two games. What a bum. Tampa's run defense is fairly generous though (22nd in yards per game, 25th in YPC), so a bounce-back game would seem to be in order. ... Brandon Flowers also remains out for the Bolts with a concussion, but Tyrell Williams (shoulder) seems likely to play. Jacquizz Rodgers (foot) is the closest thing to a key name on the injury report for the Bucs, and even he's probably play Sunday.

Predictions: Doug Martin runs for 100 yards and a touchdown. Winston throws for 260 yards and TDs to Evans and Cecil Shorts. Gordon does Martin one better, rushing for 120 yards and two scores, one on the ground and one through the air. Philip Rivers throws for 280 yards and a second touchdown to Dontrelle Inman, and Josh Lambo wins it in OT. Chargers 27-24

Carolina (+7) at Seattle, 44.5 o/u – Sunday, 8:30 pm EST

Comments: It's been a two steps forward, two steps back kind of season for the Panthers, and last week's tough loss in Oakland was probably the final blow to any playoff aspirations they may have still been harboring. They'll get their first chance to play spoiler in Seattle, a team they beat twice last year, but will have to do it without Luke Kuechly (concussion), who'll miss his second straight game. That might be a little too much to ask, especially with a mortal-seeming Cam Newton facing a defense that sits third in YPC allowed and fifth in QB rating against. ... The Seahawks aren't really themselves without a power running game, and this is a tough week for Thomas Rawls to try and re-discover his 2015 form. Carolina's tops in the league in YPC allowed at 3.3, and second in rushing yards per game. Their secondary is a little more pliable though, sitting in the bottom 10 in YPA against, TD passes allowed and QB rating against, so while Rawls might not be able to turn back the clock, the Russell Wilson who tore up the league in the second half last season might be due to make his triumphant return. ... Michael Bennett (knee), out since Week 7, will be a game-time decision for Seattle. Other than Kuechly, Carolina's injury report is pretty clean.

Predictions: Jonathan Stewart bashes out 60 yards and a TD. Newton throws for 220 yards and a touchdown to Greg Olsen. Rawls manages just 40 yards, but Wilson throws for 330 yards and three touchdowns, one to Doug Baldwin and two to Jimmy Graham. Seahawks 27-17

Indianapolis at NY Jets (+1.5), 49 o/u – Monday, 8:30 pm EST

Comments: It's OK, Colts fans, Andrew Luck is back. You can exhale now. Not that Scott Tolzien was terrible last week, but – you know, I can't even finish that joke. He was pretty bad. Indy is still very much in the AFC South title race, but can't afford to get caught looking ahead to next week's crucial tilt against the Texans. Fortunately, the Jets' pass defense has been more gangrenous than Gang Green this season, sitting 23rd in QB rating against. A healthy Luck should be able to take them apart. ... The Jets are just trolling their fanbase at this point by continuing to start Ryan Fitzpatrick, but at least he didn't throw an INT last week. You'd think with a 3-8 record they'd be giving Bryce Petty or even Christian Hackenberg a look, but nope. Fitzpatrick will get a great chance to pad his stats in meaningless fashion Monday, though. The Colts' secondary is even worse than the Jets, ranking 31st in QB rating against, and given the receiving options both QBs have at their disposal, this one could get wild. ... New York is a bit banged up on defense, with Calvin Pryor (concussion) out and Muhammed Wilkerson (ankle) questionable. T.Y. Hilton (back) is listed as questionable for Indy, but should play.

Predictions: Frank Gore is held to 50 yards. Luck throws for 310 yards and three TDs, finding Donte Moncrief for two and Phillip Dorsett for one, while Hilton pulls down 100 yards. Matt Forte brings in 90 combined yards and a touchdown. Fitzpatrick throws for 280 yards and three TDs of his own, one each to Brandon Marshall, Quincy Enunwa and Bilal Powell. D'Qwell Jackson scoops up a Fitzpatrick fumble and returns it for a score to keep things close. Jets 34-31

Last week's record: 10-6, 6-9-1 ATS, 9-7 o/u
2016 regular season record: 104-71-2, 75-94-8 ATS, 93-82-2 o/u