This article is part of our NFL Game Previews series.
Bye: Baltimore, Dallas, Jacksonville, New York Jets
Stat of the Week I: First QB in NFL history to throw for 4,000 yards: Joe Namath (4,007 in 1967)
Stat of the Week II: All AFC North teams are at least two games over .500 while every NFC South member is under .500.
Buffalo (+5) at Miami, Thursday, 8:30 p.m.
Comments: Considering the short week and elite defenses (both teams ranked no worse than 10th in any of four major categories), expect an ugly, low-scoring battle. Buffalo won three of four before blowing a 10-point fourth quarter lead at home to KC, but toppled MIA in its last three meetings and four of five since 2012. Inefficient against the Chiefs (season-low 5.4 YPA), but Kyle Orton completes 65.6 percent of passes for 277.4 YPG, 7.3 YPA and 10:3 TD:INT. However, Miami ranks second in YPA (6.2) and YPG (210.8) allowed. Clearly, No. 15 WR Sammy Watkins (groin) wasn't right last week. Thankfully, he avoided a setback, but remains a risky start: Brent Grimes, playing at an All-Pro level, intercepted four passes the last three games (how incredible was that one-handed stick?). Furthermore, Watkins is hit-or-miss with point totals of 2-24-21-2 his last four. Fred Jackson, held to less than 50 total yards in three straight, reached double digits just once in eight games. Jackson didn't aggravate his groin injury but working on just three days rest and likely splitting time in the backfield. I expect Bryce Brown, who tallied 100 YFS on just 13 touches but lost a crucial fumble going into the endzone, to play the C.J. Spiller role. The supremely talented Brown is one of just four players with multiple games of at least 150 rushing yards and two-plus TD the last three seasons (Arian Foster, Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson), doing so in consecutive weeks in 2012. Thanks to 6.9 YPC Sunday, Anthony Dixon kept himself in the mix for a little while longer. ... Despite the Lions ending their three-game winning streak in dramatic fashion, Dolphins remain one of the hottest teams in football (only losses since Week 4 were in waning seconds to 7-2 DET and 6-3 GB). However, the loss of Pro Bowl LT Branden Albert (torn ACL, MCL) is significant, forcing their first-round pick, Ja'Wuan James, to protect Ryan Tannehill's blind side against a Bills defense leading the league with 34 sacks. Not just Marcell Dareus -- whose 10.0 are nearly twice as many as any other DT -- their DL features three of the NFL's top-12 sacks leaders. After averaging 20.0 over his last five, Tannehill, 11th in QB scoring, struggled to a season-low 10 points. Realistically, his best play was a touchdown-saving tackle following the interception. Somehow 18th among receivers despite averaging 57.7 YPG (on pace for a 2013-Fitzgeraldesque 922.7 yards and 10.7 TD), Mike Wallace remains a low-end, TD-dependant WR2 due to his quarterback's inability to hit him on a deep ball. Wallace, between five and 12 points every game, scored in six of nine but hasn't topped 81 yards yet. With at least three catches in eight straight, Jarvis Landry is clearly Tannehill's second target and an intriguing add in deeper leagues. Limited to a season-low five touches by the shoulder injury, No. 13 RB Lamar Miller failed to reach nine points for the first time in seven games. Similarly to Jackson and Watkins, Miller emerged Week 10 setback-free but is hindered by the quick turnaround and difficult matchup (BUF eighth against the run). LaMichael James, elevated from the practice squad, should be in that rotation with Miller's touches likely limited again; excited to see what he can do in that offense.
Predictions: With points at a premium, start either DST, if possible. Neither quarterback throws for even 225 yards. Mike Wallace catches five for 76 yards and a touchdown; Watkins limited to 4-47 by Grimes. With both coaches deploying a three-back rotation, no RB tops 60 yards. Dolphins win the turnover battle for the fourth time in five games (11:3 differential in last four), narrowly prevailing at home. Miami, 16-13.
Houston (+3) at Cleveland, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Texans come out of the bye with a new quarterback, benching Ryan Fitzpatrick in favor of Ryan Mallett. Drafted in the third round by the Patriots in 2011, Mallett has crazy arm talent and significantly higher upside. Mallett, learning behind Tom Brady the last three seasons, posted 7,493 yards, 9.2 YPA and 62:19 TD:INT ratio his last two years in Fayetteville. Had Houston, losers of four of five, not been so stubborn and made that trade sooner (giving him a chance to learn the offense during offseason and start immediately), it might be playoff-bound instead of 4-5. In addition to being its best chance to win, Mallett should boost the fantasy value of Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins. Only T.Y. Hilton and Antonio Brown have more games of 60-plus yards than Hopkins (seven), who averages 76 per (on pace for 1,216) thanks to 95 or more in each of his last three. Hopkins caught his first touchdown since week four against Philly, but has at least five catches in three straight and six of seven. Johnson is coming off his worst game (two catches, 12 yards) after at least five catches and 55 yards his previous five, but remains just barely on pace for his eighth career 1,000-yard season (and 85.3 receptions). The 12-year veteran has just one TD in his last 16 games despite 95 catches over that span. Joe Haden typically follows the opposition's best receiver; interested to see whom Browns assign him to. Arian Foster, third in total points but best on a per-game basis among RB, scored at least 15 points in each of his last five, tallying 25 or more in three. Given the well-timed bye, Foster isn't expected to miss any time. Watch the practice reports but should be an elite RB1 against Cleveland's 28th-ranked run defense (31st in YPC allowed, 4.7). ... The 6-3, AFC North-leading Browns snapped a 17-game road losing streak within the division for their best nine-game start since 1994. Their 52 rushes against CIN (39 for 152 yards up the middle) were the most by any team this year, allowing all three backs to score a touchdown and double-digit points. Terrance West led them with 26 carries, giving him 41 the last two weeks. Ben Tate has run 51 times for just 99 yards (1.9 YPC) since Alex Mack went down. Given that inefficiency, CLE has decreased his workload in four straight (carry total last five games: 25-16-15-10-10). With the Browns clearly going to a hot-hand approach, I want no part of that three-headed backfield. If I have to own one, I'm going with the most talented, Isaiah Crowell. Although 9-3 career as starter, Brian Hoyer has just 10 touchdowns and one or fewer in seven of nine games this season. This offense should regain some explosiveness when Josh Gordon returns next week. Jordan Cameron (concussion) and Andrew Hawkins (thigh) are both expected to play after missing week 10.
Predictions:Ryan Mallett passes for 287 yards and two touchdowns in his first pro start. Johnson and Hopkins combine for 174 of those and both scores. Arian Foster rushes for 116 yards and a touch. Browns still can't decide on a running back, limiting all three to 12 touches or fewer. Texans snap Cleveland's three-game winning streak to get back to .500. Houston, 21-17.
Atlanta (+1.5) at Carolina, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Falcons beat TB to a halt a five-game skid, winning for just the second time in 13 games away from the friendly confines of the Georgia Dome. However, the freefall continues for Matt Ryan, who failed to exceed 15 points for a fifth consecutive game. Ryan has 228 yards or less in three straight but another great opportunity to turn it around with CAR allowing 28.1 PPG (29th) and 254.4 passing YPG (23rd). Julio Jones hasn't scored since Week 3, a big reason he's sitting at WR12 despite being sixth in YPG (94.8) and fourth in targets (94). Big games will come, maybe even this week: no team bequeaths more touchdowns to WR than Carolina (14). Jones had 18 touchdowns combined his first two seasons despite missing three games, don't be surprised if hits 9-10. Roddy White has at least five catches and 66 yards in three straight, scoring 13 points or more in two and 35 total over that span. Steven Jackson has at least 16 carries, 60 yards, and 12 points each of the past two weeks. Not only his two highest carry and rushing totals, the first time he's hit paydirt in consecutive games all year. Panthers give up the most total TD (14) and fifth-most points (21.2) to RB. ... Carolina plays their worst in standalone games, falling to 0-3 in Primetime after getting blown out in Philly. That 2-0 start seems like eons ago with Panthers 1-6-1 over their last eight, including four consecutive losses. Cam Newton was awful Monday despite his first 300-yard game of 2014, committing four turnovers and getting sacked a career-high nine times. Reports have him dealing with a right foot injury, but he was completing just 27-percent of passes under pressure coming into the game (only Geno Smith is worse). 17th among quarterbacks averaging just 13.0 FPPG, Newton hasn't scored more than 14 points in four straight. Kelvin Benjamin, a top-10 WR despite three receptions or fewer in half his games, proved garbage time still counts, snatching two touchdowns for his first career multi-score game and a season-high 19 points. Benjamin is eighth in targets but catches just over half (50.6-percent) of passes thrown his way. After just 46 yards on four catches his previous two games, No. 4 TE Greg Olsen snagged six for a season-high 119. No tight end has more games of 10-plus points than Olsen (six). Although they haven't done much all year, Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams are sneaky sleepers with Atlanta giving up the most rushing TD (12) and fantasy points (23.0 FPPG) to RB.
Predictions:Cam Newton finally gets on track with 308 yards (46 rushing) and three TD. Olsen and Benjamin catch two, he runs for another. Matt Ryan passes for 331 yards and three scores, 118 and two to Julio Jones. Roddy White scores, Steven Jackson rushes for 73 and a touch. Thanks to two atrocious defenses, this game turns into a real barnburner. Falcons, just one game out, win their second straight. Atlanta, 28-24.
Minnesota (+3.5) at Chicago, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Thanks to their opponent and two straight wins following a three-game losing streak, Vikings are out of the NFC North basement at 4-5. It's a simple formula: when Teddy Bridgewater protects the ball, they win. Of his five starts, Minnesota lost both games in which he committed a turnover (five in those two combined, zero in all others). Bridgewater scored just four times total in six games played (no more than once in any) but should jumpstart that total against a Bears defense allowing league-worst 20.8 FPPG to QB. Brady and Rodgers, the last two to face CHI, threw for at least five touchdowns and 315 yards (11:0 TD:INT ratio). After scoring nine times as a rookie, Cordarrelle Patterson has done so just twice in nine games despite the significantly larger role. Patterson has two catches or fewer and no more than 15 yards in four of his last five. Jerick McKinnon continues to be robbed by Matt "king of the vulture" Asiata, but averages 87.5 total YPG since being inserted into the lineup Week 4. Oddly enough, the only games Asiata rushed for a touchdown in...he's done so three times (nine career rushing TD came in three games: all hat tricks). McKinnon averages 5.0 YPC, 2.5 after contact (fourth in NFL), and will start at least a couple more games (likely rest of season). Can't definitely rule out Adrian Peterson returning, but a lot of things need to fall his way. It's possible Kyle Rudolph comes back this week, but just one career game over 67 yards; fittingly touchdown-dependant in our current TE landscape. ... Bears are horrendous in divisional play, going 2-12 ATS in their last 14 against NFC North clubs. NE and GB combined to outscore them 80-7 in the first half. Chicago is the first team since 1923 Rochester Jeffersons to allow 50-plus points in back-to-back games. Remarkably, Jay Cutler is still a top-10 fantasy quarterback, clearly much better fake football than in reality (NFL-high 15 turnovers, two or more in six games). He's fading fast with eight points or fewer in two of his last three compared to at least 16 in each of the first six. Sadly, Brandon Marshall tweaked that bum ankle during his best game since Week 2 (17 points), right after looking like his old self on that 45-yard score. It just isn't his year. Even if he plays, odds are it's at much less than full health. Outside the top-20, Alshon Jeffery has just 131 yards his last three (43.7 YPG) after 377 the previous four (94.3 per). After starting the year on fire with four straight nine-plus point games (three over 13), No. 6 TE Martellus Bennett has seven points or fewer in four of his last five. Matt Forte failed to score 20 points for the first time in five games but remains fourth among running backs and on pace for over 2,000 total yards (125.9/game).
Predictions:Jerick McKinnon scampers for 129 yards (88 rushing), finally finding the painted area. Bears stop throwing in the RZ (71-percent on season), allowing Forte to score twice as a runner during a 124-yard day. Jeffery accounts for 94 of Cutler's 281 yards and only TD. Vikings get plenty of opportunities with Bears ranked dead last in scoring defense (30.8), but settle for too many FG. Chicago, 24-23.
Cincinnati (+7) at New Orleans, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Bengals suffered their first defeat in 15 home games (13-0-1 prior to Thursday, 32.3-18.0 average score). Andy Dalton could not have been worse...he could try, but he would not be successful. His 30.3 completion percentage and 2.0 passer rating were the worst in franchise history while his 2.6 YPA was second-worst, and Cincinnati doesn't exactly have the QB lineage of Green Bay. Dalton failed to throw a TD pass in three of his last four, under 48-percent, 3.4 YPA, and 127 yards in two of those. That extension, while well structured, looks worse by the second. Doubtful things improve here, NO held Newton and Kaepernick to 12 points each the past two weeks. A.J. Green averaged 5.7 catches and 104.7 yards prior to the toe injury but just six catches for 67 yards combined in two games since returning. Mohamed Sanu, 13th in WR scoring, remains involved even with Green back, seeing at least seven targets in each of those two. Marvin Lewis said there's a chance Tyler Eifert misses the rest of 2014 with his dislocated elbow not progressing as expected. There's no guarantee Giovani Bernard (hip) plays, but Jeremy Hill carried 36 times for 209 yards (5.8 YPC) and two TD in two games without him. NO, surprisingly strong against the run, allows just 106.8 YPG (11th). ... Saints were an offensive PI away from victories in three straight and four of five. Drew Brees, while not meriting his draft-day price tag at QB7, scores at least 15 points every game. Brees has at least 292 yards in seven straight and multiple touchdowns in seven of nine, including three or more in two of his last three. Somehow, Cincy is second in passer rating allowed (76.5) as opposing quarterbacks have a 10:10 TD:INT ratio. Jimmy Graham climbed back to No. 3 TE with 22 receptions, 44 points, and four TD his past three games since goose-egging in Detroit. Brandin Cooks averages 12.3 YPT his past three games, improving to 8.1 for the year (how quickly things change). Despite averaging 9.4 YPT, Marques Colston is on pace for just 90 targets (under 100 once in career) and hasn't hit 50 yards in three straight. RB position is catastrophic in 2014, so much so Mark Ingram is top-12 despite missing three contests. Ingram has 13 or more points in five of six (averages 15.8 overall) and 100-plus rushing yards each of his last three. Killer matchup with Bengals' 31st-ranked run defense allowing 143.0 YPG.
Predictions:Andy Dalton passes for 291 yards but coughs it up twice. Green has a field day, hauling in eight for 143 and a TD. Giovani Bernard plays, but not well (64 total yards). Drew Brees throws for 338 yards and touchdowns to Jimmy Graham, Kenny Stills, and Marques Colston. Mark Ingram makes it four straight with 109 yards and a score. Back the Saints at home. New Orleans, 28-20.
Denver (-9.5) at St. Louis, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Broncos rebounded from their dud in Foxborough by drubbing the Raiders 41-10 for their fifth win in six games. Peyton Manning, just five points shy of Andrew Luck for No. 1, made it 15 straight with multiple touchdown passes and nine career games with five or more, both NFL records (also has record for 2, 3, 4, 6, and 7-TD games). Manning was a top-five QB six of nine weeks this season, no worse than ninth in any. However, he threw multiple interceptions in consecutive games for the first time since 2010. Rams allow opposing QB to complete 69.6-percent, worst in the league, for 7.9 YPA (28th). No. 2 TE Julius Thomas, despite scoring in seven of nine games and 12 times altogether, only reached double-digits four times. Thomas has less than 40 yards in five of his last eight and no more than 66 yards in any of those. Demaryius Thomas, second in WR scoring, has at least seven catches and 105 yards in each of his last six. Have to wonder if he could've broken Calvin Johnson's record had he been healthy all along. Emmanuel Sanders, seventh in WR scoring thanks to six TD his past four games, scored in double figures four straight times and seven of eight. Your guess is as good as mine in the Broncos backfield. John Fox referred to Ronnie Hillman as "day-to-day", but multiple reports have him missing two-three weeks with a mid-foot sprain. Montee Ball (groin) is expected back after being sidelined the last five weeks, but C.J. Anderson totaled 163 yards on just 17 touches after Hillman went down in Oakland. Rookie Juwan Thompson should be last in the pecking order but who knows. It's a plus-matchup against Rams 25th-ranked run defense (124.2 YPG). ... So we go from the most exciting to one of the least watchable teams in football, for fantasy purposes. If we could skip this part, I would. However, the Rams won two of their last four, scoring upsets over division rivals SF and SEA. Jeff Fisher is making the switch to Shaun Hill, but does it really matter? Austin Davis had eight points or fewer in three straight to go along with at least one turnover in six of seven. Kenny Britt averages 8.2 YPT since Brian Quick went down, 7.8 overall, but hasn't seen more than five targets in four straight and gets 4.4 per game. If I could trade any player in the league, it might be Tavon Austin. Watch his college tape and tell me how he averages 26.2 YPG. Jared Cook finally avoided the Lance Kendricks vulture, but had to score from 59 out to do so. Cook, the team's leader in targets (56), now has one game over seven points and just eight catches the past four. Tre Mason might have a bright future (if they get a QB), but not this week; Denver leads the league in YPC (3.2) and YPG (67.0). Considering STL has allowed six TD to opposing defenses (13 teams yet to allow even one), Denver DST may be the start of the week.
Predictions:Peyton Manning makes it 49 straight with a TD pass, inching closer to that record with four more. Demaryius Thomas takes a quick screen this distance for one of his two house calls during a 123-yard day. Julius Thomas gets to within four of Gronk's record with his 13th TD. Montee Ball returns and rushes for 87 yards and a score on 14 carries. If you're starting Rams, you're in trouble. Broncos dominate and cover. Denver, 38-14.
Seattle (+1.5) at Kansas City, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Seahawks coming off a 38-17 win (their third straight since back-to-back losses to STL/DAL) in which they rushed for a franchise-record 350 yards, most by any team in five years. However, Hawks are just 8-6 (counting playoffs) in 10 a.m. PST starts since 2012, including 1-1 this season (26-6 in all others). Russell Wilson, fifth in QB scoring, joined Michael Vick as the only quarterbacks since 1970 merger with three 100-yard games in a season. However, Wilson doesn't have a passing touchdown in two games and three of his last five. Furthermore, he's accounted for just two (one rushing, receiving) the last three. After blowing up for 7-123-1 after the Percy Harvin deal, Doug Baldwin's catches, yards and targets have decreased in three straight. Marshawn Lynch vaulted to second among running backs with the 40-burger, his first 100-yard rushing game since Week 1 (67 or fewer in previous four). That was his fourth game of 24 points or more and just the 40th time in history a player accounted for 160-plus scrimmage yards and at least four touchdowns. On the strength of six touchdowns, Lynch scored 65 points the last two weeks after just 18 combined (zero TD) the previous three. His 12 scores lead all RB (tied with Julius Thomas for tops in NFL), but something has to give: Chiefs, the only team to give up less than four, have yet to surrender a rushing touchdown despite being 30th in YPC (4.7). In fact, no RB has scored against KC, allowing just 12.1 FPPG, fourth-fewest. ... Kansas City is the first team since 2009 Browns to be without a WR touchdown nine games into the season. Not that Alex Smith throws many, but all 11 of his TD passes were to backs or tight ends. Impressive, but even more incredible is KC has won four straight and six of seven without a wideout finding the painted area. Smith has accounted for just five TD since Week 5, a five-game span. TE9 Travis Kelce scored a season-low one point last week and has four or fewer in three of his last four. However, opposing tight ends scored 10 touchdowns and 9.9 FPPG against SEA, second- and fourth-most, respectively. Dwayne Bowe, who's caught 20 passes the last three weeks (at least six in each), is coming off season highs in receptions (8), yards (93) and targets (12), but Seattle is finally at full strength at corner with Byron Maxwell and Jeremy Lane back last week. Jamaal Charles, ninth in RB scoring, scored at least one TD and 14-plus points in four straight and five of six since returning. Charles averages 85.0 yards on the ground and 4.9 YPC over those six, but the Seahawks are second in YPC (3.2) and YPG (79.8) allowed.
Predictions:Jamaal Charles notches his first 100-yard game (odd considering he's been within eight yards three times), rushing for 106 hard-earned yards and a score on 25 carries. KC receivers still can't score; Kelce snares Smith's only touchdown. Hawks feed Marshawn Lynch, who pounds it 24 times for 124 yards and scores the first (and second) rush TD on the Chiefs. Seahawks, getting points for the first time all year, love the underdog role; back them even on the road in 10 a.m. window. Seattle, 20-17.
San Francisco (-4) at NY Giants, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: San Fran escaped NO with a 27-24 overtime victory, snapping a two-game losing streak and saving their season. Unfortunately, Patrick Willis (toe) underwent season-ending surgery. Although he hadn't played since Week 6, Willis is a seven-time Pro Bowler (every year in league) and the heart and soul of that defense. Thankfully, 'Niners get a shot in the arm with Aldon Smith (suspension) back this week and Navarro Bowman (knee, PUP) nearing a return to practice. Colin Kaepernick, 16th among quarterbacks, scored exactly one TD and 13 points or fewer in three straight and four of his last five. 49ers leading receiver Anquan Boldin, who has 15 points in two straight and three of his last four, is on pace for his seventh career 1,000 yard season, outscoring Michael Crabtree each of the last six games along the way. In fact, even Stevie Johnson is drastically outplaying Crabtree: it's taken Johnson just 40 targets and 196 snaps to rack up 399 yards (10.0 YPT) compared to just 424 yards on 68 targets (6.2 YPT) and more than twice as many snaps (456) for Crab. Since Week 1, Vernon Davis has been pathetic, catching just 13 passes for 125 yards on 24 targets (zero in RZ) in those six games. Frank Gore scored his first TD since Week 2 in just his second 20-carry game, but averages only 3.0 YPC over his last four (3.5 or less in each). Gore's 14 points in NO were five more than his previous three games combined. NYG dropped to 32nd against the run (144.7 YPG) after being thrashed in Seattle. ... When the Giants lose, they get buried. All six losses by at least 10 points, outscored 196-90 in those games (average score 32.7-15.0). They've allowed at least 400 total yards in four straight for the first time in team history, and those 350 rushing were the most by a NYG opponent in over a decade (Philadelphia, 2002). However, Eli Manning, 21-plus points his last two games, completed three passes over 20 yards in the air in the first half (just two all season entering Week 10). Every bit as good as advertised, Odell Beckham has 52 points in five games as a pro. Beckham scored 40 in the last three, hitting double digits in each, and at least seven catches and 100 yards his last two (15-264 total on 20 targets). Rueben Randle's volume is baffling; easily the most criminally overused player of 2014. He has 69 targets his last seven games (9.9 per, nine or more in each) but managed just 369 yards on those looks (5.3 YPT). Rashad Jennings (knee) is back...finally. Not sure if I could handle watching Andre Williams one more week (2.9 YPC, 3.5 or less in 8/9 games) and Jennings (4.4 YPC) scored 57 points those first five games.
Predictions: Kaepernick records just his second 20-point game, Vernon Davis comes out of hiding with 64 yards and a TD. Strong rebound performance from NYG run defense, limiting Gore to 57 yards on 17 carries. Rashad Jennings tallies 109 scrimmage yards and scores. Odell Beckham hauls in five for 83. Giants finally hang tough in defeat but 49ers win second in a row. San Francisco, 23-17.
Tampa Bay (-7) at Washington, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Buccaneers lost five straight since upsetting Steelers in Pittsburgh. Still don't understand the switch back to Josh McCown -- that 300-yard game was his first of more than 183 all year, and he sports a 6.5 YPA and 4:6 TD:INT ratio. Washington's No. 6 ranking against the pass is deceiving; they're 31st in TD:INT ratio (18:3) and 27th in passer rating (101.8). No. 17 WR Mike Evans really coming on strong with at least one touchdown and 11 points in four of his last five (72 points, five TD during stretch). Seemingly the best wideout in Tampa now, Evans has no less than seven catches, 124 yards or 18 points these last two weeks. Particularly disappointing considering the volume, Vincent Jackson is sixth most-targeted (10.0/game) but 30th in receiving yardage at 518. He's caught only 40 of 90 targets (44.4 percent) for 5.8 YPT. Expect a lot of Charles Sims ahead. Bobby Rainey, while serviceable and a nice role player, clearly isn't the answer at tailback and Doug Martin is almost certainly out of future plans. Although Sims struggled in his first outing, Lovie Smith spent a third-round pick on him and Tampa Bay Times' Greg Auman expects Sims' role to "gradually increase." ... How bad must the Bucs be for the 3-6 Redskins to be nearly a touchdown favorite? Amazingly, TB is closer to its division lead than Washington. Despite completing 72.1 percent for 8.2 YPA, Robert Griffin III scored just one touchdown in a little over two games. Although he has just 25 points (14 or fewer each game), RG3 should break out with Tampa allowing 19 TD (third most) and 18.1 FPPG (fifth most) to opposing QB. WR11 Desean Jackson is on fire, scoring 13 points or more in five of his last seven and 90 total over that time. Jackson has 115-plus yards in four of five despite catching just four balls per game in 2014, largely due to at least one reception of 37 yards or longer in five straight and six of seven. Despite converting 67.7 percent of targets, Pierre Garcon hasn't seen more than six in any game since Week 2. A dream matchup awaits, no team has allowed more WR touchdowns (14) or points (28.8) than Tampa. Alfred Morris, quietly a top-10 RB, is ecstatic to have RG3 back as his two highest rushing totals (91, 92) came in the only games his quarterback finished. As bad as the Buccaneers defense is, it allows just 3.8 YPA (ninth in NFL).
Predictions: RG3 explodes for 336 yards (48 rushing) and three scores. Jackson, Garcon and Reed crack double figures. Charles Sims struggles, receiving yardage boosts him to 76 YFS. McCown hits Vincent Jackson on a home-run ball, his first TD in six games. Evans hauls in six passes for 81 yards. Alas, Skins offense looks like the group we expected, gaining 448 total yards in victory. Washington, 27-21.
Oakland (+10) at San Diego, Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST
Comments: Can't imagine Raiders going 0-16, but then again they've lost 15 straight dating back to 2013. Derek Carr shows flashes, but held under 200 yards and 5.0 YPA in two straight. San Diego ranks ninth against the pass but opposing QB have a 17:4 TD:INT ratio. It appears Andre Holmes' moment passed, collecting just 2-of-6 targets for 28 yards the past two games combined. James Jones' two-game line looks like rushing totals: 11-38-0. Jones averaged a paltry 2.2 YPT over those two and 6.5 this season. Mychal Rivera (21 catches, 28 targets, three TD the past three weeks) is the west coast Larry Donnell, a product of opportunity and rapport more so than skill. However, production is production, and Rivera has between 15 and 23 PPR points in those three. Darren McFadden rushed 20 times for 34 yards (1.7 YPC) these last two weeks. Volume is there with 11-plus touches each of his last eight, just not doing much with it. You can run on the Chargers, ranking 17th in YPG (113.2) and 23rd in YPC (4.4). We're going to see Latavius Murray (6-3, 230, 4.38 forty) at some point down the stretch; this rushing attack is historically bad (65.5 YPG worst mark since 1946 Lions) and they need to find out what he's capable of since DMC and MJD are not the future. ... San Diego is the ultimate "paper tiger", building up a 5-1 record against poor teams only to collapse once the schedule turned. Chargers dropped three straight following that five-game winning streak, including blanking in Miami last time out (25.6 PPG through eight games). However, they're 10-5 ATS their last 15 games. No. 8 QB Philip Rivers has merely 30 points his last three games compared to 73 the previous three (24.3 per). After just two picks through six games, Rivers threw six the past three. However, that negative-three point disaster, albeit the worst performance of his career, was the first time since Week 1 he failed to throw at least two touchdowns. Volume isn't the issue for Keenan Allen: he's seeing 26-percent of the team's targets, up from 22-percent market share last season. Furthermore, he's on pace for almost 30 more targets, the difference is 6.4 YPT compared to 10.1 in 2013. Antonio Gates, third in TE scoring, is a regression candidate. Gates has three catches or fewer in five of his last seven and 30 yards or fewer in four of those (no more than 61 in any). Ryan Mathews timed his return perfectly as Branden Oliver, just 89 YFS and 2.1 YPC these last two games, is better fit for a secondary role. Raiders give up third-most FPPG to opposing RB, 22.2.
Predictions:Ryan Mathews accounts for 93 yards and scores in his return. Philip Rivers throws for 264 yards and touchdowns to Malcom Floyd and Keenan Allen. DMC keeps the Raiders in it with 89 yards and a touch. Derek Carr, who threw four TD in a 31-28 loss to SD Week 6, commits two more turnovers including another game-ending INT (déjà vu). Chargers win, but not by 10. San Diego, 26-19.
Detroit (+2.5) at Arizona, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST
Comments: Lions are the first team since the 1994 Giants to score the game-winning points inside the final two minutes of regulation in three straight (won by a combined six points). Combining for a 15-3 record, these teams would be the top two seeds if the playoffs started today. That was the fourth career game-winning TD in the final 30 seconds for Matthew Stafford, who went 8-of-11 for 79 yards on the drive. It's frustrating he isn't that player all the time, but he's unbelievably clutch. Although 15th in QB scoring, Stafford has 904 yards his last three games, throwing multiple touchdowns in each. Calvin Johnson has 442 yards and 61 points in four healthy performances, registering no less than six catches or 82 yards in any. Patrick Peterson has been dominant of late (what a ridiculous interception), but Megatron ate him up for 6-116-2 last season. Golden Tate, ninth in WR scoring, has at least seven catches in six straight and five or more every game this season. Tate, who has 109 yards or more in five of his last six, already has career highs in catches (66) and yards (909). Antonio Cromartie will need to use his size advantage and out-physical Tate because he's too quick for him in and out of breaks and in open field. Joique Bell averages merely 3.3 per carry while Arizona's third-ranked run defense (78.6 YPG) allows just 3.4 YPC (fourth) and 11.3 points to RB (second-fewest). Reggie Bush tweaked his ankle versus MIA, limiting him to 19 snaps and leaving him highly questionable for this game. ... Rarely pretty, but Arizona keeps winning. They own the best record in football at 8-1, 11-2 under Bruce Arians at home. Without Carson Palmer (ACL) for the rest of the season, AZ turns to Drew Stanton, who went 2-1 in his place earlier and hasn't thrown a pick in 93 attempts. However, Stanton is completing just 49.5-percent of those passes and Lions' third-ranked pass defense (212.1 YPG) has allowed just 10 pass TD and 11.4 FPPG to opposing QB, both fewest in NFL. No one would fault you for dropping Michael Floyd, who has just 13 catches for 148 yards his past six games. He's being targeted 18.8 yards downfield on average (second-furthest in NFL), but not catching any (converting 46.2-percent). Due to big-play ability, I'd rather start John Brown over him. Larry Fitzgerald reassumed the No. 1 receiver role with Floyd's struggles, catching 31 passes and scoring 57 points over his last five. Unfortunately, Lions allow a league-low 15.6 FPPG to WR. Amazingly enough, little Andre Ellington is third in the NFL in carries. You'd love to see more than 3.5 YPC, but Ellington seventh among running backs with 110 points (88 over last six). Detroit second in YPG (71.3) and third in YPC (3.2) allowed.
Predictions: Both score, but neither Bell nor Ellington top 50 yards rushing in a game featuring two of the league's three best run defenses. Megatron and Patrick Peterson provide fireworks in the best position battle this weekend; Calvin wins via decision with 6-91-1. Stafford passes for 294 yards and two TD. Fitz finishes with 73 yards and a touch. Higher scoring than you'd expect considering two of the top four scoring defenses are involved, Lions avenge a 25-21 Week 2 loss last season, clinching the all-important head-to-head tiebreaker over Arizona. Detroit, 24-20.
Philadelphia (+6) at Green Bay, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST
Comments: Eagles, winners of four of five, lead the NFC East at 7-2. What an odd game Monday night though: in a game where they drop 45 on CAR, Jeremy Maclin (38 yards) and Lesean McCoy (12-19) give you next to nothing. Considering the offensive line is back in full force with Evan Mathis and Jason Kelce returning the past two weeks, the running game should be peaking. No. 18 RB McCoy (one spot behind teammate Darren Sproles), who scored for the first time in seven games, carried it 19-plus times in seven of nine but averages 3.7 YPC (5.1 in 2013). The league's sixth-leading rusher (second in carries) should kick-start against GB, 30th in YPG (142.6) and 28th in YPC (4.6). Monday was the first time the-reborn Mark Sanchez threw for 300-plus yards and multiple touchdowns without an interception. An upgrade over Nick Foles, I'd be surprised if Foles got his job back. Tougher matchup than you'd envision, Green Bay allows 229.1 YPG (ninth) and 13:12 TD:INT. In his last four, Jeremy Maclin point totals are as follow, 1-30-27-3. With 36 receptions and five scores on 53 targets his past seven games, Jordan Matthews has overtaken Riley Cooper as No. 2 in the passing game. This Zach Ertz thing is never going to happen; Brent Celek, the better blocker, continues to play more snaps week in week out. ... Packers, who would miss the playoffs if the season ended today despite a 6-3 record, flat out shellacked Chicago for their fifth win in six games. Aaron Rodgers became the first player since 1969 (second all-time) with six passing touchdowns in the first half and the eighth with multiple six-TD games. Rodgers, whose 25:3 TD:INT ratio is best in the biz, has thrown 25 straight touchdowns without an interception at home. Fulfilling his top-three QB draft status, he's scored 24-plus points in four straight. The gap between Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb will widen over the coming weeks. Nelson (26-421-4 last three versus CHI) has 23 more targets and 239 more yards on the year, and highly unlikely Cobb keeps up the frenetic scoring pace (touchdowns in six straight and eight of nine). Both wideouts have 11 or more points in five of their last six and should have little trouble with Philly's secondary. Eagles give up fourth-most fantasy points to QB and third-most to WR. Without much fanfare, Eddie Lacy came on strong since that slow start to sit 11th among RB. Lacy has 11-plus points in five of his last six despite more than 14 carries and 63 yards just once all year (season highs: 17 and 105).
Predictions: Rodgers tosses four touchdowns during a 341-yard day. Nelson goes for 123 and two scores, Cobb 88 and one. Lacy rushes for 75 yards and a TD. Mark Sanchez duels A-Rod for a while (279 yards, two TD) but throws a costly pick late. Maclin nabs seven for 117 and a touch. McCoy rushes 24 times for 132 yards, scoring twice. Packers avenge last season's 27-13 loss to Philly in Lambeau (albeit sans-Rodgers). Green Bay, 34-30.
New England (+3) at Indianapolis, Sunday, 8:30 p.m. EST
Comments: Patriots have won five in a row to take control of the AFC's top seed since everyone wrote them off after that 2-2 start. Bill Belichick-coached teams are 9-2 coming off the bye since 2003. Tom Brady has at least 333 yards and four TD his last two games and 1,601 yards (320.2 per) with 18:1 TD:INT ratio the past five. For the first time in his career, No. 6 QB Brady has five consecutive 20-point games (35 total points in first four, no more than 13 in any). Crucial to the winning streak is phenomenal play of top fantasy TE Rob Gronkowski, who's played 75-percent of snaps over the last five games (5-0) compared to just 51-percent the first four (2-2). Not only has Gronk 516 yards and five TD the last five games, he's collected 18-of-19 targets for 254 yards and four TD the past two. Julian Edelman was a key factor in the Pats' 43-21 drubbing of Denver last time out, scoring twice (nearly a third) after not doing so the previous six games and just once all season. Brandon LaFell, inside the top-20, has 74 points over his last six including four 11-plus point games. I'd expect Edelman to have greater impact with Vontae Davis likely picking up LaFell. Three of Shane Vereen's four double-digit games this season have come the past five weeks, but throw out the No. 21 back's 23-point outburst versus NYJ and he has 50 points in eight games. ... Colts, winners of six of seven since starting 0-2, are 7-2 ATS this season. Andrew Luck, the top QB in fantasy, has seven straight 300-yard games, two shy of Brees' record. Averaging 24.6 points and 342.78 yards (on pace for NFL-record 5,484), Luck scored no less than 18 points in any game and 25 or more five times. He's already established a career high in TD with 26 (previous, 23), but also projected to better his marks in YPA, TD- and completion percentage, and attempts. Third-leading receiver T.Y. Hilton has four 100-yard games in his last six and 91 points over that span. Fantasy's No. 8 WR has at least 65 yards every game since Week 2 and touchdowns in three of four. Reggie Wayne averages 8.0 targets/game and scored 13 points against the Giants after just 11 combined his previous three. With Brandon Browner and Darrelle Revis forming arguably the best CB tandem in the game, Patriots allow third-fewest points to opposing WR (16.3). Refuse to believe Ahmad Bradshaw can sustain RB1 status on 9.2 carries/13.0 touches per game, regardless of offense he's playing in. If his current 3.6 YPC holds up, Trent Richardson would match his average as a rookie in 2012. NE 22nd-ranked run defense allows 120.0 YPG and 4.4 YPG (24th).
Predictions: Brady throws for 322 yards and three scores against Indy's 27th-ranked pass defense, his fifth straight three-plus TD game. Luck attempts 41-plus for the sixth consecutive time, finishing with 339 yards and three touchdowns himself. Gronk's line: 7-97-1, Edelman 9-89-1. Hilton too quick for Browner with 101 yards, Wayne hits paydirt. Vereen and Richardson both score. No disrespect to Chuck Pagano, but I'll take the better coach post-bye. New England, 31-28.
Pittsburgh (-6) at Tennessee, Monday, 8:30 p.m. EST
Comments: Any way we can flex GB/PHI to Monday night? I guess Pittsburgh thought it was awarded a victory for showing up last week, only way to explain a 20-13 loss to the lowly Jets (wasn't even that close) following a dominant three-game winning streak. Ben Roethlisberger is fourth in QB scoring despite topping 16 points just once outside two-game explosion. Big Ben passed for 340-plus yards each of the last three weeks, but one TD or fewer five times. Tennessee's 11th-ranked pass defense (232.1 YPG) needs to guard against the long ball as Roethlisberger has 12 deep touchdowns (over 15 yards downfield). Top fantasy wideout Antonio Brown kept his five-catch streak alive but scored a season low three points due to two fumbles, just his second in single digits all year. Averaging 8.77 catches and on pace for 140, Brown has a chance to break Marvin Harrison's single-season record of 143. With 14-310-6, Martavis Bryant has a better four-game start to his career than Randy Moss (17-273-4). At 66 points (double figures in each start), Bryant outscored Eric Decker in less than half the games and averages 16.5 per, a better clip than his teammate (15.3). With all that in mind, how on earth is he playing the same number of snaps (38) as Markus Wheaton? After topping the century mark in each of his first eight, No. 5 RB Le'Veon Bell has 69 YFS or fewer in back-to-back weeks. Bell's 10-point game streak was snapped at 12, but Titans rank 29th versus the run (136.6 YPG). ... Tennessee is in the mix with the Rams, Raiders, and Jaguars for most irrelevant team [for fantasy purposes]. There is nothing interesting about this club and minimal scoring opportunities (dead last in NFL in plays run inside 5-yard line). Zach Mettenberger has arm talent, but needs to improve within the pocket (seven sacks in two starts). Not unlike Michael Floyd, Justin Hunter is being targeted deep downfield (18.1 aDot) but isn't converting (42-percent catch rate). Kendall Wright isn't a terrible (53-plus yards in three straight), but offers zero upside with a season high of 68 yards. Delanie Walker remains top-8 amongst TE despite nine catches for 91 yards combined his past three games and reaching double-digits twice all year. Bishop Sankey, who's scored just one TD this season and none in five games, is proof you can be a starting NFL running back devoid of fantasy value. Sankey has six points or fewer in five straight and eight of nine games in 2014.
Predictions: Ben wins the "battle of the Bergers," tossing two scoring strikes during a 311-yard effort while Zach coughs it up twice. Antonio Brown bounces back with 113 yards and a TD among his nine catches. Martavis Bryant's hot start continues with 88 yards and a touch. Bell gets back on the 100-plus YFS train, scoring in the process. Delanie Walker scores their only touchdown; no Titan tops 55 total yards. No way Steelers lose this game. Pittsburgh, 24-13.
