Game Spotlight: Don't Doubt Dalvin

Sunday

Detroit (4-7) vs. Los Angeles Rams (10-1), 1:00

Open: 55 O/U, LAR -8.5
Live: 54.5 O/U, LAR -10

The Lions are sinking and the Rams are about to tie on a few more stones to speed up the process, but there should be a considerable amount of fantasy utility to extract from this game, and even on the Detroit side.

The Rams have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks so far, conceding roughly 247 yards and 2.27 touchdowns through the air per game, so particulary with the presumption that the Rams light up the Lions defense, Matthew Stafford could patch together some cheap fantasy value even if his team gets clobbered in the process. This would be a risky investment given Stafford's struggles over the last four games, in which he's combined for just three touchdowns to four interceptions while averaging just 232 passing yards per game. The anticipated return of Aqib Talib from injury only heightens this sense. But to be fair to Stafford, those four weeks consisted of two matchups with the ruthless Bears defense, and another game was on the road against a strong Vikings defense. Even with Talib back, this might be Stafford's easiest matchup in more than two months.

Even if Stafford doesn't play well, the absences of Golden Tate and Marvin Jones dictate that Kenny Golladay still carry a strong projection, because he's the heir to a huge target share in a setting where Stafford's attempt volume might go for 40 or more. Golladay is a veritable beast, and with 23 of Stafford's last 75 targets in the last two weeks, Golladay is a strong bet to see double-digit targets. Keep in mind, Golladay's depth of target (11.4 ADOT) means his air yardage share is substantially greater than his raw target projection. He's a tough fade at just $6,700 on DraftKings, where I think he's a very good play in cash and tournament lineups both. Bruce Ellington is worth serious consideration in both categories on DK also, because at $3,500 you're not going to find a better ratio of dollars to projected targets. In his first two games with the Lions the former South Carolina star has 16 targets, and while those resulted in just 12 catches for 80 yards, the PPR scoring does a lot for Ellington on DK.

The absence of Kerryon Johnson (knee) means LeGarrette Blount will again function as the lead runner for Detroit, but the projected script of this game implies a light workload for Blount all the same. He would be in position to produce if he does manage to get carry volume against a Rams defense allowing 5.0 yards per carry to running backs, but I think you put that carry over/under at 9.5 or so. Theo Riddick should be the more active Detroit running back, and he too is in play for tournaments in DraftKings' PPR scoring, in my opinion. Riddick has 13 targets in the last two weeks, even with Blount getting 19 carries in one of those games. Double-digit targets isn't out of the question for Riddick, but it's worth noting that the matchup seems rather bad otherwise. The Rams have allowed just 4.4 yards per target to running backs at a 78.1 completion percentage.

The Rams side of the game will feature big games from at least a couple well-known brands, the usage tree might be widening a bit as the playoffs approach. I don't know whether that was a conscious strategic decision by the Rams to confuse their offensive tendencies before the postseason, or if the intention all year was to get tight ends Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett involved in the passing game. For almost all of the year you pretty much knew the three starting receivers would feature similar levels of top-20 output while Todd Gurley pillaged the rest, but Higbee has 128 yards and a touchdown on 14 targets over the last three weeks, while Everett has 112 yards and three touchdowns on 11 targets in that span. That complicates things a bit, even with the reliable presumption that Jared Goff posts big numbers.

You have to love Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods either way, because they're just that solid and nothing in the Detroit corner rotation, not even Darius Slay, is intimidating for them. What's less clear is whether Josh Reynolds will produce similarly, as Cooper Kupp (knee) did prior to injury, or if the tight ends will get in on the void resulting from Kupp's injury. I'm sold on Reynolds as a prospect – he's a good player with standout ball skills and especially sticks out relative to Cooks and Woods as a red-zone threat. Right or wrong, I perceive Woods as the high-floor guy in the group, while Cooks and Reynolds strike me as better upside options. I'll probably fade the tight ends, tempting as they might be, because their breakouts occurred as Gurley's numbers declined, and I really doubt Gurley continues to average 115 yards from scrimmage and less than one touchdown per game like he has in the last three games. Gurley averaged about 144 yards from scrimmage and 1.9 touchdowns in the first eight weeks.

Tampa Bay (4-7) vs. Carolina (6-5), 1:00

Open: 56 O/U, CAR -4
Live: 54.5 O/U, CAR -3.5

The Tampa Bay pass defense usually dictates some substantial amount of fantasy value in the opposing offense, and this matchup is no exception. The Panthers almost certainly will be charged for this game given its momentous role in their playoff race, and at 6-5 they simply can't afford a loss.

(Christian McCaffrey and Cam Newton need no explanation).

I don't know if the secondary can possibly get worse for it, but it's worth noting that Tampa Bay will be without rookie corners Carlton Davis and M.J. Stewart, while Brent Grimes is also at risk of missing the game. Devin Funchess (back) is listed as questionable, meanwhile, but that he was listed as a full practice participant Friday implies he can return. Whether he returns to the full share of his prior workload is less clear, both because of his memorable drop issues before the injury and the continued ascents of D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel. That Torrey Smith is back on the field might also harm Funchess given Funchess played four weeks without Smith.

The last time Smith, Moore, and Funchess were all active at once Funchess played 92 percent of the snaps, with Moore at 46, Smith at 51, Jarius Wright at 54, and Samuel at 32. Newton threw 39 passes in that game, though, whereas in this matchup 30 seems a bit more likely, so we probably want to presume a smaller pie of wide receiver snaps this time. Moore is more likely to play 90 percent of the snaps than 46, and while Wright will likely see less than 54 percent of the snaps in this scenario, he would likely need to be scratched altogether if Carolina were to preserve both Moore's new workload and Funchess' prior one. I'm fading Funchess in any case and presuming Moore the WR1 on this team until further notice. I love Samuel as a talent, but I have no faith in Carolina's intention to use him. They're committed to justifying the Smith trade for some reason, and more snaps for Samuel makes more obvious the uselessness of Smith. Tempting as he is, I won't have Samuel in my tournament lineups, but Moore I might. Greg Olsen has been dreadfully quiet the last two weeks, turning seven targets into four catches for 20 yards and a touchdown, but the matchup context makes him a fine play for me this week anyway. He caught all six of his targets for 76 yards and a touchdown the last time he played the Buccaneers, and that was with Newton throwing just 25 passes.

The Tampa Bay side of this could be somewhat ugly despite the relatively promising over/under on the game. Jameis Winston simply isn't very good, with 11 touchdowns to ten passing touchdowns in six games this year, and the Carolina secondary appears uniquely problematic for the Tampa receivers since rookie Donte Jackson blankets speed wideouts while big corner James Bradberry has proven a troubling matchup for Mike Evans.

I think the Buccaneers passing game got an upgrade when DeSean Jackson was declared out with his thumb injury, however, because he'll be replaced by the bigger Chris Godwin, who lacks Jackson's burning speed but also carries the frame to box out the corner Jackson, who's extremely skinny at 180 pounds. Godwin is the second-best receiver on this team, make no mistake about that, and I love him in tournament lineups in the event that a Bradberry funnel works the ball away from Evans, who has struggled against Carolina his whole career (6.1 YPT in nine games). Evans is GPP-viable any time he plays, but I just can't get over that 6.1 YPT. If a funnel does work the ball away from Evans, Adam Humphries and Cameron Brate would also be in position to benefit, and they both are likely to have easier matchups than Godwin against Jackson. Humphries figures to be relatively chalky on this slate, especially since he caught eight passes for 82 yards and two touchdowns against the Panthers in Week 9, but I prefer Godwin, especially for tournaments. Humphries should be just fine, but he's not as good as his numbers imply. His average depth of target (5.9 yards) makes him vulnerable to stretches of extreme inefficiency, and his current average of 7.0 yards after each catch is patently unsustainable. Brate is no OJ Howard but he might fool someone into believing otherwise against a Panthers defense allowing 8.3 YPT to tight ends at a completion percentage of 75.6. Winston makes sense in tournaments despite his issues, because if Godwin outplays Jackson then that would give the Buccaneers three pass catchers with solid projections.

Although I have no interest in the Tampa Bay backfield, Peyton Barber has run reasonably well lately, securing 18 carries and a touchdown in two straight games. The problem is those games featured opponents (Giants and 49ers) who were far less competitive than the Panthers will be, and in catch-up scripts Barber is liable to completely disappear. He only had 11 carries for 31 yards against Carolina in Week 9, and it's difficult to identify any notable differences in this setting. Jacquizz Rodgers would get pass-catching work if Barber is not, but he's averaging just 4.6 yards per target aside from his fluky 102-yard game against Washington in Week 10.

Oakland (2-9) vs. Kansas City (9-2), 4:05

Open: 56 O/U, KC -15
Live: 55.5 O/U, KC -15

The Kareem Hunt release has significantly narrowed the spread of running back ownership, as at $4,000 on DraftKings and $5,200 on Fanduel it's basically inconceivable to make a lineup without Spencer Ware, who could very plausibly finish as the highest-scoring running back on the slate but at the price of a presumed backup. Anything can happen and Ware can certainly fail, but I can't imagine making a lineup without him unless you make at least eight, or more likely at least ten. There just isn't much to think about here – the Chiefs are projected to score the most points on this slate, against a profoundly incompetent opponent that simply cannot compete, and thus can't force the Chiefs to call in the Pat Mahomes air raid.

Of course, even if Mahomes goes easy on the Raiders he will still light them up, and if he throws more than 20 passes it's difficult to imagine him throwing fewer than two touchdowns. With Sammy Watkins (foot) out, Mahomes' usage will be reliably channeled through Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, who both carry enormous projections even with the blowout risk, and the absences of Hunt and Watkins help alleviate that concern anyway. Chris Conley might be a trendy punt pivot at wide receiver, and it's hard to argue against the reasoning. Mahomes will do his damage and, like Ware, Conley is priced as a presumed backup. That he scored two touchdowns in the Rams shootout means he'll be on the mainstream radar, but that itself is not a compelling reason to fade given the Mahomes projection and Conley's projected snap count. It's curious that the Chiefs have used Conley as an underneath receiver this year, with an average depth of target of just 7.6. Conley's skill set is truthfully one of a downfield receiver, where his 4.35 40, 45-inch vertical, and 139-inch broad jump make him dangerous. I think Conley's upside might be a bit understated based on his 7.2 YPT.

Derek Carr will have the opportunity for pass attempt volume against a Chiefs team that to this point has provoked more opposing pass attempts than any other team with 468, or 42.6 pass attempts per game. I can't really criticize the decision to consider Carr in a GPP, particular at $5,000 on DraftKings with their 300-yard bonus, as even Carr would project for over 300 yards if he approaches 40 attempts. That the Raiders defense is hopeless would seemingly give a good chance for that outcome. Jordy Nelson and Marcell Ateman are the favorite to lead the Raiders in snaps, but Carr has been afraid to throw to Nelson all year and Ateman is coming off a game where he turned 10 targets into 16 yards. Seth Roberts plays the fewest snaps of the three given his slot wideout designation, but Carr is much more comfortable throwing to that part of the field – Roberts has 39 targets on 347 snaps this year, while Nelson has only 40 on 548 snaps. It might be Roberts who has the highest floor among the Oakland wideouts. Martavis Bryant (knee) could play but probably won't after missing all of this week's practices.

That Carr approaching 40 pass attempts doesn't automatically render Nelson or Ateman obvious bargains is largely because of Jared Cook and Jalen Richard. The two lead the Raiders in targets, both in terms of volume and per-game rates. Cook sets the pace with 70 and is therefore one of the top tight ends on the slate, an excellent pivot from the Ebron-Brate types if you can afford paying up a bit more. Richard should be as busy as ever since his usage kicks in when Oakland needs to throw, and the air raid assures that lead runner Doug Martin sees his usage capped around ten carries or so. Richard saw 11 targets against the Rams in Week 1, and this week's matchup is probably the one most analogous that that Rams game. With the lumbering inside linebacker pair of Anthony Hitchens and Reggie Ragland, the Chiefs simply cannot cover running backs. With Kansas City allowing 7.7 yards per target to running backs at an 81.8 completion percentage, I love Richard on DraftKings this week and can't really argue against his deployment no matter whether it's cash games or tournaments. The matchup is similarly inviting for Cook, as the Chiefs' inability to cover the middle of the field has also extended benefits to tight ends, where Kansas City conceded 9.0 yards per target so far at 67.8 percent completed.

New England (8-3) vs. Minnesota (6-4-1), 4:25

Open: 48.5 O/U, NE -7
Live: 49.5 O/U, NE -5.5

Here we have a collision between Tom Brady and his extremely efficient home splits versus a Vikings defense that's much better than the public and fantasy football media world at large figured as recently as a couple weeks ago. Not surprisingly, the Vikings have looked much better when Everson Griffen and Xavier Rhodes play, and when the opponent isn't the Rams. It's unclear whether Rhodes (hamstring) will play or how much, or how effectively, but at the very least the Vikings pass rush is on fire since offensive lines are truly helpless against Danielle Hunter, Everson Griffen, Sheldon Richardson, and Linval Joseph. Brady will need a quick release and his trademark avoidance of turnovers in this setting, but with historical home splits featuring a career touchdown-to-interception ratio of 3.8 to 1, I think you have to presume he holds the advantage, challenging as it might be otherwise.

The importance of this matchup for the playoff picture and the stoutness of the Minnesota run defense make me optimistic for Brady and the Patriots passing game. If I'm looking at it right, then Brady should not only have his extreme efficiency in play, but the uncommon urgency of the setting might dictate greater volume than usual, especially if the Vikings shut down the run while Rhodes is compromised at corner.

With names like Chris Hogan and Phillip Dorsett barely visible in the offense these days, the tree has narrowed to pretty much just Julian Edelman, Josh Gordon, and Rob Gronkowski as far as notable route runners go. I think all three carry fine projections. Gordon can probably smoke Rhodes generally and especially if Rhodes is limited, while Edelman should be characteristically bankable from the slot where Rhodes and Trae Waynes generally shouldn't find him. It's different in DraftKings' PPR scoring perhaps, but on Fanduel at least I think we can consider Gordon the upside candidate of the two due to the higher touchdown and depth-of-target projections. Gronk is a strong tournament play at Foxboro with the Vikings conceding 8.3 yards per target to tight ends to this point at a completion percentage of 68.1.

As I alluded to earlier, I'm not optimistic for the New England running game as even in their compromised state this year the Vikings have allowed only 3.7 yards per carry and three rushing touchdowns to running backs in 11 games. I have no DFS interest in Sony Michel. James White is a different position entirely and I think he projects better since I expect a big game from Brady and the Vikings otherwise have allowed 6.5 yards per target to running backs. But the return of Rex Burkhead doesn't quite seem factored into White's salary number, so I'll fade the whole crew.

One factor in why I won't have any Patriots running backs might have to do with one on the other side in this very game. Dalvin Cook ($6,200) is cheaper on Fanduel than Michel ($7,000) and White ($6,800), but I'm confident he'll outproduce both. Cook has sputtered on the ground in his return from his hamstring injury, which will assure low ownership despite his affordability against a defense allowing 4.3 yards per carry and 6.6 yards per target to running backs, almost all of which are far lesser than Cook. It's one thing to doubt Cook's durability or take concern with Latavius Murray vulturing carries, but I think Cook demonstrated his health with his explosive touchdown run after the catch against the Packers on Sunday, and if healthy there is just no comparison between him and Murray. I have to say this because fantasy sports media have a short memory: Cook is a great, not good running back. He changes games when he's healthy. I have to get a decent number of tournament shares.

While I acknowledge the risk with Cook given his hamstring and the presence of Murray, I feel like things look pretty much golden for Kirk Cousins. It's concerning that Stefon Diggs (groin) appears highly questionable after logging just one limited practice this week Friday, but he's expected to play nonetheless. If he's on the field he's presumably drawing Stephon Gilmore a healthy amount, which complicates an already shaky projection with the injury accounted for. But it would be great news for Adam Thielen if that exact thing occurred, because he gets a major green light if he's running routes in a catch-up script and avoids Gilmore in the process. Even if he does see Gilmore somehow, Thielen has to be a great cash and tournament play both given his almost incomparable combination of skill set and usage, and again, in a catch-up script specifically. He might get elevated usage yet against the softest parts of the New England defense specifically. If Diggs is surprisingly out then I love Aldrick Robinson as a tournament play. He gets lost in the shuffle due to his quiet season and a slate where other, similarly affordable tight ends draw nice matchups, but Kyle Rudolph has to be one of the best tournament tight end candidates on the slate against a Patriots defense allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends, buoyed mostly by seven touchdowns in 11 games.