Exploiting the Matchups: Week 15 Start/Sit

I know there's someone out there who started Mike Evans, D.J. Chark Jr., Calvin Ridley and Jared Cook last week, somehow surviving an onslaught of injuries but now staring at the likelihood of elimination with a shell of a lineup left behind. Week 14 was brutal from a medical standpoint, which means the upcoming slate will be full of tough decisions for many fantasy managers.

My best advice is to not stay married to any one lineup, instead re-evaluating throughout the week as more and more information becomes available. The toughest decisions may need to wait until Sunday, as there's a good chance we see a slew of key fantasy contributors listed as questionable on the Friday injury report. The Week 15 viability of DeAndre Washington, Allen Hurns and Isaiah Ford, among others, may be tough to decipher before inactive lists come out Sunday morning.

Before we get into specific players to upgrade or downgrade for Week 14, here are some of my favorite tools for analyzing matchups:

• Jeff Erickson's value meter
• RotoWire's weekly projections
• RotoWire's weekly composite rankings
• Betting odds
• RotoWire's pages for advanced stats and TE route data.
• Pace stats and DVOA from Football Outsiders
• Next Gen Stats from NFL.com
• Player Grades and Premium Stats from Pro Football Focus
• Personnel Grouping Frequencies and Run:Pass Ratios from SharpFootballStats.com
• airyards.com
• Opponent and teammate injuries
• Target share
• Snap counts
• Defense vs. Position stats

Note: Discussion below mostly is limited to players that are being started in 10-to-90 percent of lineups on Yahoo. There are plenty of other players with good or bad matchups, but we'll focus our energy on the guys most likely to be involved in difficult lineup decisions.

Note, Pt. 2: References to 'fantasy points' are based on scoring with 25/10 yardage, 4/6 TDs and 0.5 PPR, i.e., standard settings on Yahoo and FanDuel.

Upgrades

 QUARTERBACK

• Eli Manning, NYG vs. MIA

Coach Pat Shurmur has already suggested Daniel Jones (ankle) will miss at least one more game, while tight end Evan Engram (foot) seems to have a realistic shot at rejoining the lineup. Manning was shut down after halftime in last week's road loss to the Eagles, but he should have better luck in a home date with the Dolphins, a team that's dead last in pass defense DVOA (44.2%) and 29th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks (22.0 per game). The past four weeks saw each of Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, Carson Wentz and Sam Darnold put up 270 or more yards and multiple touchdowns against Miami.

• Honorable Mentions: Tom Brady, NE at CIN; Ryan Tannehill, TEN vs. HOU; Derek Carr, OAK vs. JAX; Baker Mayfield, CLE at ARZ

RUNNING BACK

• Raheem Mostert, SF vs. ATL

Mostert played 74 and 60 percent of offensive snaps the past two weeks, with the latter occurring in a game where both Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida were active. Even if Coleman remains the nominal starter, Mostert has done everything in his power to keep the lead role, now averaging 6.0 yards per carry and 9.4 yards per target after he rumbled for 263 total yards and three touchdowns against Baltimore and New Orleans in his past two games. Given his success in those tricky matchups, Mostert shouldn't have too much trouble Week 15, returning home to face a Falcons defense that's 16th in DVOA against the run (-9.1%) and 14th in fantasy points allowed to running backs (20.1). Those numbers aren't so bad, but consider that the 49ers have the second-largest implied total (29.0) of the week.

• Kareem Hunt, CLE at ARZ

Hunt continues to prove me wrong with each passing week, scoring 11.8 or more PPR points in every game, despite serving as the No. 2 back in a mediocre offense. The rushing volume has trended upward to compensate for a reduction in targets, with Hunt ultimately getting at least 10 each week, one way or another. His success should continue this weekend, facing an Arizona defense that's allowed opposing backfields to produce 632 receiving yards (25th) at a clip of 7.4 yards per target (27th), ranking 28th in DVOA (32.1%) on passes thrown to RBs. The Cardinals also have been fairly vulnerable against the run — 24th in yards per game (120.5), 19th in YPC (4.3) and 13th in DVOA (-11.6%).

• Honorable Mentions: Kenyan Drake, ARZ vs. CLE; Duke Johnson, HOU at TEN; Josh Jacobs or DeAndre Washington, OAK vs. JAX

WIDE RECEIVER

• Robert Woods, LAR at DAL

A weird thing happened Sunday night in the Rams' 28-12 win over the Seahawks. Sean McVay switched up his offense to rely on 12 personnel, with blocking tight end Johnny Mundt playing 71 percent of snaps while Brandin Cooks (39 percent) and Cooper Kupp (29 percent) had their roles scaled back. I'm not saying it will happen again in Dallas, but it's nice to know that Woods is the one wideout in no danger of losing playing time, having logged 99 percent of snaps en route to a 7-98-1 receiving line in the win over Seattle. Given that it was his fourth straight game with at least nine targets and 95 yards, I have no problem treating him as a low-end WR1 for Week 15. His matchup look like a nice bonus, as the Rams mostly align Woods wide right or in the slot, which should keep him away from the Cowboys' only good cornerback, Byron Jones (who has lined up outside to the left side of the offense on 85 percent of his snaps this year, per PFF).

• Michael Gallup, DAL vs. LAR

Rams cornerback Troy Hill has done nice work since he was promoted to the starting lineup in October, but he should still be viewed as the relative weak link in a group that otherwise consists of Jalen Ramsey and slot ace Nickell Robey-Coleman. PFF shows that Ramsey has been deployed in shadow coverage on Julio Jones, Allen Robinson, JuJu Smith-Schuster and DK Metcalf, so we should probably expect Amari Cooper to get the same treatment. The matchup should work out well for Gallup, who is coming off a 100-yard game last week and averaging 5.0 catches for 82.3 yards on the season. His volume and efficiency both scream WR2, but many fantasy managers haven't noticed because of a couple missed games and poor touchdown luck (just three from 905 yards).

• A.J. Brown, TEN vs. HOU

Brown and Ryan Tannehill can't possibly sustain the efficiency we've seen so far, but what they can do is offset some of the loss with more volume. The rookie easily leads Tennessee with 20 percent target share in Tannehill's seven starts, hinting at upside for double-digit opportunities if/when the team ends up in an unfavorable game script. I don't necessarily think it will happen this week, but five or six targets should be enough to do the trick against a Houston defense that ranks 27th in DVOA against the pass (25.0%) and 19th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers (29.0). None of the Texans' cornerbacks cracks the top 40 of PFF's grading for the position.

• Honorable Mentions: Kenny Golladay, DET vs. TB; Emmanuel Sanders and Deebo Samuel, SF vs. ATL; Marquise Brown, BAL vs. NYJ; Darius Slayton, Golden Tate and Sterling Shepard, NYG vs. MIA; Terry McLaurin, WAS vs. PHI; Mike Williams, LAC vs. MIN; Allen Hurns, MIA at NYG; Chris Conley, Dede Westbrook and Keelan Cole, JAX at OAK; Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham, CLE at ARZ

TIGHT END

• O.J. Howard, TB at DET

Howard played 83 and 87 percent of offensive snaps the past two weeks, producing a 5-61-0 receiving line on six targets and a 4-73-0 line on five targets. There's always some risk of a spontaneous benching from Bruce Arians, but the flips side is a higher volume ceiling now that Mike Evans (hamstring) is out of the picture. Howard should be option B or C in the Tampa passing game, playing in a dome against a Lions defense that ranks 19th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends (9.7) and 26th in DVOA against the position (15.9%). It's a good  spot for production even if Ryan Griffin ends up starting in place of Jameis Winston (thumb).

• Honorable Mentions: Tyler Higbee, LAR at DAL; Mike Gesicki, MIA at NYG; Dallas Goedert, PHI vs. WAS; Jonnu Smith, TEN vs. HOU; Jordan Akins, HOU at TEN; David Njoku, CLE at ARZ

KICKER 

• Robbie Gould, SF vs. ATL

Owned in just 47 percent of Yahoo leagues, Gould has been sharp in two games since he returned from a quadriceps injury, with his only miss coming on a blocked kick from 51 yards out in bad weather in Baltimore. I beg you not to be the person who loses a tight playoff matchup because they started a kicker from a team with an implied total of 22 or 23 points when there was a kicker available on waivers with an implied team total of 29. This isn't a position where the correct decision is consistently rewarded, but that's no excuse for putting yourself on the wrong side of the probabilities.

• Honorable mentions: Austin Seibert, CLE at ARZ; Aldrick Rosas, NYG vs. MIA; Daniel Carlson, OAK vs. JAX

Downgrades

QUARTERBACK

• Josh Allen, BUF at PIT

Rushing production generally creates a nice fantasy floor for quarterbacks, but we've now seen Allen face-plant in his two toughest matchups of the year, scoring 11.7 fantasy points Week 4 against the Patriots and 10.7 last week against the Ravens. A trip to Pittsburgh won't be any easier, with the Steelers fourth in pass defense DVOA (-15.7%) and fifth in fantasy points allowed to QBs (14.6). They've surrendered just one QB performance of 17 or more FPs since Week 2, stonewalling Lamar Jackson (14.4) and Kyler Murray (13.0) during that time. Buffalo's implied total of 17.25 points is third-worst of Week 15, behind even Washington (17.75) and Denver (18.25).

• Not-so-Honorable Mentions: Sam Darnold, NYJ at BAL; Andy Dalton, CIN vs. NE; Mitchell Trubisky, CHI at GB

RUNNING BACK

• Devonta Freeman, ATL at SF

Freeman led our 'upgrades' section last week, facing a Panthers defense that sits dead last in both DVOA against the run and fantasy points allowed to running backs. Sure enough, he came through with borderline RB1 production, piling up 94 yards and a touchdown from 17 carries and four catches. Unfortunately, Freeman lands toward the other extreme of the matchup spectrum for Week 15, traveling to San Francisco to face a defense that's ninth in DVOA against the run (-13.4%) and third in fantasy points allowed to RBs (14.1). 

The 49ers do have a couple crucial injuries on defense, but neither CB Richard Sherman (hamstring) nor DE Dee Ford (hamstring) has played much of a role in the team's success stopping the run. Atlanta carries a measly implied total of 18 points, and Freeman still figures to lose some work to Brian Hill, who had nine touches last week and six the week before.

• Joe Mixon, CIN vs. NE

Mixon's recent volume would make him a must-start regardless of the matchup for an average fantasy team, but I suspect many squads with meaningful action Week 15 have better alternatives in the backfield. After all, if you made it this far after using a second-round selection on Mixon, there's a good chance you struck gold with a later pick at running back. Whatever the case, Mixon still cedes snaps to Giovani Bernard on passing downs, which becomes far more problematic as a nine-point underdog against the Patriots and their excellent defense. There's definitely a scenario where Mixon has a big game to keep the Bengals competitive, but there's also a scenario where he struggles early and never really gets a chance to recover. I'm betting on the latter.

• Not-so-Honorable Mentions: Le'Veon Bell, NYJ at BAL; Jamaal Williams, GB vs. CHI; Carlos Hyde, HOU at TEN

WIDE RECEIVER

• Robby Anderson, NYJ at BAL

I'm not in the habit of benching wide receivers coming off three straight games with 86 or more yards, but a closer look shows that Anderson did his recent damage against the Raiders, Bengals and Dolphins, a far cry from his Week 15 opponent. The Ravens still haven't allowed a 100-yard receiving game since they traded for Marcus Peters, who is part of a star-studded cornerback group that also features Marlon Humphrey, Jimmy Smith and Brandon Carr. With Earl Thomas patrolling at free safety, perhaps it shouldn't be a surprise that the Ravens have gone six straight games without allowing a pass play of 40-plus yards. On a more anecdotal note, Anderson seems to be awfully matchup-dependent, not to mention inconsistent. A road game where his team has an implied total of 14.5 points isn't the right time to bet on seeing the good version.

• Anthony Miller, CHI at GB

I'm grateful for all that Miller did for my fantasy squads the past two weeks, but I won't try to ride the wave now that circumstances are shifting against him. For starters, the Bears carry an implied total of 18 points, traveling to Green Bay for a game that likely will be played amidst temperatures below 20 degrees. The Packers are ninth in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers (24.9), and a ton of that production has come against RCB Kevin King, whereas LCB Jaire Alexander and slot man Tramon Williams have been much better. Miller figures to run the majority of his routes against Williams, whose mark of 0.92 yards per coverage snap in the slot ranks 15th of 42 cornerbacks, per PFF (100-snap min.). Williams has been targeted on just 9.4 percent of those snaps, the second-lowest rate among regular slot corners.

• Not-so-Honorable Mentions: Tyler Boyd and John Ross, CIN vs. NE; John Brown and Cole Beasley, BUF at PIT; JuJu Smith-Schuster, PIT vs. BUF; Courtland Sutton, DEN at KC; Adam Thielen, MIN at LAC; Brandin Cooks, LAR at DAL

TIGHT END

• Kyle Rudolph, MIN at LAC

Rudolph fell flat in a great spot last week, and he'll now face an improving Chargers defense that ranks ninth in both fantasy points allowed to tight ends (8.6) and DVOA on passes to the position (-4.5%). With Rayshawn Jenkins doing solid work at one safety spot and Derwin James now back in the other, the Chargers suddenly look like a tricky draw for quarterbacks, wide receivers and tight ends. It doesn't help that Adam Thielen (hamstring) may be back in the lineup, considering Rudolph averaged just 1.8 targets per game the first six weeks of the season when Thielen was healthy. It wasn't until his teammate got injured that Rudolph regained the volume and production we'd seen in previous years.

• Not-so-Honorable Mention: Hunter Henry, LAC vs. MIN; Dawson Knox, BUF at PIT