Exploiting the Matchups: Week 10 Start/Sit

In previous years, I leveraged the intro of this column to highlight some running back handcuff stashes that could pay huge dividends if an injury-heavy season continued to claim victims. Since we're seeing a similar trend this year at RB, it's worth repeating that exercise.

Many teams won't be able to take advantage because of roster limits, but especially for the owners of the starters in front of these guys, do what you can to squeeze these handcuffs onto your bench. After all, if these guys took over for an injured star, they could be league-winners.

1. C.J. Anderson, CAR: Christian McCaffrey has dominated this backfield with 158 touches to Anderson's 23, and if that extra workload ends up breaking the 205-pound tailback, his veteran backup could go off down the stretch. After all, Anderson is just one year removed from a 1,000-yard rushing season, and the Panthers draw the Buccaneers, Browns, Saints and Falcons in Weeks 13-16.

2. Spencer Ware, KC: Elite offense plus good talent equals huge production. That's the formula via which Ware could become a league winner should any serious ailment take down Kareem Hunt's tree trunk legs. Five of Ware's 33 touches have gone for more than 20 yards, and he's tallied over 80 scrimmage yards in a complementary role twice in the last three games. Before Hunt's arrival and his injury last season, Ware looked like a true three-down workhorse after posting 1,368 scrimmage yards during 14 games in 2016.

3. Malcolm Brown, LAR: Just because it's obvious doesn't mean it's not the right move. Brown is only third on the list because I can't even remember ever seeing Todd Gurley on an NFL injury report through three and a half seasons. (Sure, he's missed a few games, but no truly major injuries have plagued him.) Also, Brown is the least accomplished of the backs here. Still, he showcased his talent beautifully on an exceptional touchdown catch last week. A big, nasty runner who can just as easily juke someone out of his cleats as he can de-cleat him with a trucking hit, Brown could also star in Sean McVay's elite offense. If given a workhorse role, he could clinch championships with a Week 16 matchup against the Cardinals.

Note: This column is not intended to be a traditional "Start/Sit" piece. My goal is to provide perspective you may not have considered and help make those tough decisions easier -- or make you rethink those "no-brainer" choices.

Upgrades are not necessarily weekly starters (outside of the top 20 RB/WR, top 10 QB/TE) but are set to boost their production. Downgrades are worth benching or, for some bigger names, should be held to lower expectations for this week.

UPGRADE

Mitchell Trubisky, CHI vs. DET

Throw the Buffalo game out the window. When your defense scores two touchdowns and Nathan Peterman pilots your opponent, you only need to throw 20 times. Let's not forget Buffalo also happens to boast a strong secondary. The Lions, on the other hand, are basically a one-man secondary with only Darius Slay playing up to par. Dak Prescott, Brock Osweiler and Russell Wilson each threw for at least 239 yards and multiple touchdowns against them despite combining for just 75 attempts. Wilson only needed 17 throws to go for 248 yards and three scores. Overall, the Lions are allowing 8.5 YPA and sport a friendly 16:3 TD:INT. After practicing in full Wednesday, Trubisky will get No. 1 wideout Allen Robinson back from a groin injury to help him shred a defense that won't require high volume for a big fantasy day.

Marcus Mariota, TEN vs. NE

Mariota has been nothing if not inconsistent this year, often wildly so. However, perhaps he's turning a corner coming off a game in which he completed just shy of 75.0 percent of his passes, averaged 8.3 YPA and tallied 240 in the air with 32 yards on the ground and three total scores against a defense that entered the game fifth in passing yards and fourth in total yards allowed per game. The Patriots defense likely will throw some wrinkles at him that cause an ugly mistake or two, but he should show more good than bad, and if nothing else, he should compile volume if New England builds any kind of lead.

Baker Mayfield, CLE vs. ATL

Mayfield finished just a hair short of 300 yards and tossed multiple touchdowns against the Chiefs, and the Browns offense showed progress under Freddie Kitchens while finally involving Duke Johnson in the passing game. Cleveland's rookie signal caller distributed the ball to four different targets who had at least 50 yards. When a red-hot Falcons offense puts quick points on the board, Mayfield will become the seventh quarterback in the last eight games to top 300 yards versus Atlanta. Heck, even Alex Smith did it last week with hardly any weapons left.

Andy Dalton, CIN vs. NO

Let's not immediately rule out Dalton just because he will be without A.J. Green (toe) for the first time since 2016 -- or because Dalton fell on his face in his last anticipated shootout just three weeks ago with the Chiefs. This is different. He was not as bad as you'd expect when he last played without Green. The Bengals went 3-3 while Dalton averaged 241.0 yards per game through the air and tallied eight total scores. Secondly, while he loses his best weapon, he does return his last two first-round picks from injury: lightning-fast wideout John Ross and center Billy Price. Being at home and destined for a high-volume game, Dalton should still be able to take advantage of a Saints defense that's allowing quarterbacks to complete 70.0 percent of their passes for 8.8 YPA on average. Pounce on the juicy opportunity in two-quarterback and superflex formats.

RB

Mark Ingram, NO at CIN

Since limiting a Colts running game without Marlon Mack in Week 1, the Bengals defense has allowed eight different running backs to tally at least 77 scrimmage yards and an additional three to find the end zone. Even Jordan Wilkins and Frank Gore hit at least 60 scrimmage yards. In their last contest, Peyton Barber rumbled for 85 and a touchdown in a game the Buccaneers were losing 27-6 in the first half. That's how bad this Cincinnati defense is when defending tailbacks. Facing a Swiss cheese defense allowing 4.9 YPC and nearly 160.0 scrimmage yards per game to the position, Ingram is going to storm back after his 36 yards and lost fumble during a pivotal win over the Rams.

Duke Johnson, CLE vs. ATL

Double. Down. The upgrade of Johnson last week was really two parts the coaching change and one part the opponent. Now that former running backs coach turned offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens apparently will utilize the Theo Riddick-like receiving back for what he does best (hello, 9/78/2 receiving line), Johnson is set up beautifully with an even better matchup on tap. Against a Falcons defense that has allowed a league-high 68 receptions to running backs (8.5 per game!), Johnson will continue to flourish.

Ito Smith, ATL at CLE

All he does is score touchdowns? Atlanta's anti-Julio Jones (well, their other one besides Calvin Ridley), Smith has as many rushing touchdowns (four) as the rest of the roster, and he's done this over the past five games while garnering just over half the carries Tevin Coleman has seen on the season. Short, quick and shifty, Smith profiles similarly to a young Justin Forsett. With at least 45 scrimmage yards or a score in five straight and coming off his best ground performance (10 carries for 60 yards), Smith is primed to take advantage of a Browns defense that's given up at least 60 yards or a touchdown to an opponent's No. 2 tailback in four of the last five games.

Spencer Ware, KC vs. ARI

When the Chiefs are beating the Cardinals for much of the second half by 20-plus points at home, garbage time will be plenty. Ware took advantage of that three weeks ago against the Bengals by notching 89 yards on 11 touches. Last Sunday he churned out 81 yards on only six touches. With a per-touch average of 8.4 yards, Ware should have fun gouging an Arizona defense that entered its Week 9 bye having allowed the most rushing yards and touchdowns to opposing tailbacks.

Austin Ekeler, LAC at OAK

Those who think the Raiders will play with some heart and fight since they'll be at home are adorable, but you have to wonder if they truly believe it. They've given up 729 scrimmage yards and five touchdowns to opposing tailbacks during an ugly four-game losing skid. Five backs managed at least 70 scrimmage yards against them while Ekeler himself turned seven touches into 59 and a score. As much as this will be a Melvin Gordon buffet of big plays, Ekeler should also rip off some chunk gains, especially when garbage time starts, probably in the third quarter. If there is any concern about Oakland standing tough at home and keeping the score tight, remember this: The Bolts just went to Seattle and held Russell Wilson and Co. to 10 points for 58 minutes and change.

WR

Josh Gordon, NE at TEN

In case you were curious about Tennessee's ability to cover wide receivers, look no further than its past two outings. Five different wideouts registered at least 72 yards or a touchdown, with the likes of Amari Cooper, Allen Hurns, Tyrell Williams and Mike Williams all hitting paydirt (the latter three on scoring strikes of a combined 153 yards). For the huge, fast Gordon, who finally broke out in a big way for New England against a similarly susceptible Packers secondary, big things are in store again.

D.J. Moore, CAR at PIT

Moore did little against a terrible Buccaneers pass defense because he was not needed. In fact, with the defense giving the Panthers a couple short fields, a first-half lead that grew as large as 35-7 led to just 25 passes for Cam Newton. Moore had only two targets and one reverse run, which he took for 32 yards to give him a run of at least 18 in four of the last five contests. However, the Panthers might need their top rookie pick to go toe-to-toe with a top-10 Steelers offense in Pittsburgh. Moore will take advantage just as he did when he burned the second-ranked Baltimore pass defense for 90 yards through the air and 39 on the ground just two weeks ago. Given the playmaking he showcased in that performance, one can only imagine how he might torment a Steelers defense that's one of only six to have allowed wide receivers to total at least 110 receptions, 1,400 yards and double-digit scores through eight games.

Maurice Harris, WAS at TB

Harris has used the occasional great catch and lack of receiver depth for the Redskins to briefly surface on the fantasy radar the past two seasons, but last week he finally made a statement that demands attention. In an unusually pass-heavy affair for Washington, Harris garnered a 26.1 percent target share and converted his 12 looks into 10 grabs and 124 yards – his first career game over 50 yards. With Paul Richardson (shoulder) landing on injured reserve, Harris is not leaving the field anytime soon. The additional loss of both starting guards for the Redskins could also mean that the run game is headed for a major stall, which should equal more dropbacks for Alex Smith. Against a Buccaneers defense that's allowed the 10th-most yards and most touchdowns to wide receivers, things are adding up to an encore for Harris.

Christian Kirk, ARI at KC

Only the Saints and Jets have allowed more than the 130 catches the Chiefs have given up to wide receivers, and when the score gets out of hand early in this one, Josh Rosen likely will be uncorking at least 35-to-40 pass attempts. After posting at least 77 yards or a score in four of his last six outings, this should mean a safe floor for Kirk, especially against a Kansas City defense giving up an average of 179.6 yards per game to wideouts.

Amari Cooper, DAL at PHI

After all of two weeks to prepare, Cooper led the Cowboys in targets, receptions and receiving yards on Monday night while also snagging one of Dak Prescott's two touchdown passes. He benefitted from making his Dallas debut against a porous Tennessee secondary, but then again, the back end of the Eagles' defense sure hasn't been better. In fact, Philly has given up the fourth-most receptions (126) to wideouts and will now likely be without starting corner Jalen Mills (foot). It's been a month, but the best example of what a struggling receiver can achieve versus this secondary is easy to identify -- and a good reason to feel optimistic about the wayward Cooper. In Week 4, Corey Davis dominated the Eagles en route to nine grabs, 161 yards and the game-winning touchdown catch. In 19 regular-season appearances in his young career, Davis has just one career touchdown and one 100-yard game.

TE

Ben Watson, NO at CIN

Though they're coming out of their bye week, the Bengals are tied for the second-most receptions (53), third-most touchdowns (five) and fourth-most yards (602) to tight ends. For those keeping score at home, that's pretty darn bad. Watson, who benefits from a pretty darn good quarterback, has posted 40-plus yards and a score in two of his last three outings and will get the added benefit of facing this helter-skelter Cincinnati back seven.

Vernon Davis, WAS at TB

Davis stands to benefit from a variety of circumstances this week. For starters, he's starting to find the old chemistry he shared with former 49ers teammate Alex Smith after five years apart. Over the past six games, Davis has posted between 48 and 70 yards three times and found the end zone once. He's been virtually silent in the other three games during that stretch, but that had more to do with his limited role. Fortunately, that's changing too. With Paul Richardson on IR and Jamison Crowder and – most importantly -- Jordan Reed less than 100 percent (if even active), that role is going to continue increasing. With a 7/5/62 line versus Atlanta he was second on the team in targets, catches and yards and those numbers might just go up given all the missing pieces and a visit to a dreadful Buccaneers pass defense on tap. Fellow "old" man Greg Olsen just gouged their back seven for 6/76/1 -- no surprise considering they've allowed the second-most yards and third-most touchdowns to tight ends.

Vance McDonald, PIT vs. CAR

McDonald has not found the end zone since his epic 75-yard scoring romp in Week 3 on Monday Night Football and has produced just a couple of noteworthy yardage days since, both of which included a fumble. The disappointing play should come to an end Thursday night, however. Carolina has allowed 60-plus yards and a score to the tight end position in six of their last seven contests and four straight.

DOWNGRADE

Andrew Luck, IND vs. JAX

This is a call for all Luck owners to watch the Jaguars injury report in earnest this week. If the bye week has allowed their beaten-up secondary to heal, Luck is out of luck. When we last saw Jacksonville at its weakest in the secondary – minus A.J. Bouye (calf), D.J. Hayden (toe) and Tyler Patmon (neck) – Carson Wentz was busy picking them apart for 286 yards and three scores. Just three weeks earlier, however, the Jags went to Arrowhead and kept Patrick Mahomes' cannon arm from throwing a touchdown. So, if Jacksonville is healthier, Luck's fantasy hopes are not.

Jared Goff, LAR vs. SEA

Goff is coming off consecutive games with three touchdown passes and finally broke a three-game streak with less than 300 yards passing when he nearly hit 400 against the Saints, but his gaudy numbers should calm down again facing one of only three defenses to have held him to one or fewer TDs this year. Seattle is the only team he's faced who also picked him off twice. Getting to play in Los Angeles could help, but in what could be a run-heavy slugfest of divisional enemies, Goff has a lower floor than usual. Generally speaking, facing a defense giving up the fewest fantasy points to the position will do that to a guy.

Matthew Stafford, DET at CHI

Stafford's fantasy calling card throughout his career has been his volume and yardage, yet through the midway point of the season, he sits tied for 14th in pass attempts (289) and 19th in yards per game (263.9). To make matters worse, the Lions traded away his favorite target and best chain-mover since Megatron was in town. How much Stafford misses Golden Tate showed in a big way against Minnesota as he held the ball too long and took a whopping 10 sacks, in the process posting below 200 yards for just the fifth time in his last 56 games. The debacle also ended a six-game streak with multiple touchdown tosses when he posted a goose egg for the first time in over a calendar year. Still, on the bright side, visiting a Bears defense that's second in the league with 14 interceptions and allowing a league-low 80.5 passer rating should fix things (read: sarcasm).

RB

Kerryon Johnson, DET at CHI

In a better situation, Johnson could challenge for offensive rookie of the year, but the Lions seem highly reluctant to take full advantage of his immense talent. He's averaged just 11.1 carries per game and has 20 combined the past two weeks as the Lions struggled on both sides of the ball in two-score losses. Against Seattle a couple weeks ago he made up for the lack of carries with a six-catch, 69-yard receiving performance that showcased his dual-threat ability for the first time all year. Last Sunday, however, a finally healthy Theo Riddick stole that work with eight targets. To make matters worse, next up on the docket is a Bears defense that is the last remaining team to not allow a rushing touchdown to a running back. Since they're also giving up just 3.4 YPC to the position and the fourth-fewest total yards per game (100.3), the going is about to get even tougher for Johnson owners.

Joe Mixon, CIN vs. NO

What more do you really need to know about how the Saints defend running backs than the fact that they held Todd Gurley and Saquon Barkley to a combined 179 yards on 35 touches. Sure, both of those tailbacks scored once against New Orleans, but the point is that if they can limit those two, they can hold anyone in check. Only the Steelers are allowing fewer scrimmage yards per game to tailbacks than the 95.0 the Saints are relenting, and with A.J. Green sidelined, they can put an extra guy in the box and focus even more energy on shutting down Mixon. Given how much of a sieve the Bengals defense has been in recent weeks against other top-flight offenses, Mixon's numbers have a real chance to look similar to his lone dud performance that came in the Kansas City blowout (51 yards on 16 touches).

Ezekiel Elliott, DAL at PHI

Elliott has one touchdown in Dallas' last four games, which happened to coincide with its only victory in that time. In their three losses, he's rushed for just 148 yards on 52 attempts (2.8 YPC) while also posting modest receiving numbers. Now the Cowboys' workhorse will face the daunting task of trying to produce against an Eagles defense tied with the Titans for the fewest touchdowns allowed to running backs at just two through eight games. While Elliott salvaged his fantasy day last week versus Tennessee by tallying over 100 scrimmage yards, he'll be hard-pressed to repeat that task against a Philly front seven that's given up the fewest rushing yards to opposing tailbacks in the league (over 300 fewer than the Titans).

WR

T.Y. Hilton, IND vs. JAX

While the Eagles were busy racking up 419 yards on the Jaguars with three players catching touchdowns, Alshon Jeffery was left out in the cold as the Jalen Ramsey sacrifice. After at least 74 yards and a touchdown in three of his previous four games, Jeffery left London with a measly 35 yards. Hilton, who was awfully quiet in the yardage department in the two games he played after missing two with a hamstring injury, is going to remain quiet.

Tyreek Hill, KC vs. ARZ

Hill has 70 or fewer receiving yards in six of his last seven games and has failed to find the end zone in five of those. Led by the stellar-as-always play of Patrick Peterson, one of the few things the Cardinals have done well is defend wide receivers. They're tied for the fewest yards per catch (11.6) and total touchdowns (five) allowed to the position. Of course, given his huge-play upside, there's really no sitting Hill. He's proven entirely matchup-proof in the past, but that doesn't mean adjusting expectations isn't in order. Anticipating an ordinary game from the lightning-bolt receiver, aim for upside with other starters.

Alshon Jeffery, PHI vs. DAL

The second awful matchup in a row for Jeffery should keep Carson Wentz's red=zone buddy just as quiet coming out of the bye week as he was going into it. After Jalen Ramsey held him to 35 yards and shut him out of the end zone for just the second time in five games, Byron Jones looks likely to do the same. The former first-round pick is having a breakthrough season as a true lockdown corner. He's allowed zero touchdowns in 291 coverage snaps, and per Pro Football Focus, he's giving up just 0.58 yards per coverage snap, good for the fourth-best mark among corners who've registered at least 250 coverage snaps. Moreover, the addition of Golden Tate to the Philly offense further serves to decrease Jeffery's value this week.